This week’s definitive guide to two start starters August 31st to September 6th. In a season with more uncertainty than ever, it’s increasingly difficult to predict postponements. With this in mind any of these definite starts could very easily be pushed back to next week.
Definite or Indefinite Starters: Starters that should project to go five innings in an average start and have a lower likelihood of being skipped.
20-80 Grade starts
80 Grade And Definite: Shane Bieber, RHP CLE (@KC, vs. MIL), Gerrit Cole, RHP NYY (@BAL vs. PHI)
Easy starts here, particularly with Bieber getting two cushy matchups should help him pad his already league leading strikeout number.
70 Grade And Definite: Aaron Nola, RHP PHI (vs. WSH, @NYM), Max Fried, LHP ATL (@BOS, vs. WSH)
Max Fried is a legitimate Cy Young candidate in 2020. He’s 5-0 on the season with a 1.35 ERA, despite not having elite strikeout numbers Fried has been consistently executing with his pitch mix of heavy fastball with two distinct breaking pitches. I like the road start versus Boston and trust him versus a Nationals lineup that hits lefties well.
60 Grade And Definite: Patrick Corbin, LHP WSH (@PHI, @ATL), Hyun-Jin Ryu, LHP (@MIA, @BOS), Lucas Giolito, RHP CWS (@MIN, @KC), Julio Urias, LHP LAD (vs. ARI, vs. COL), Ian Anderson, RHP ATL (@BOS, vs. WSH), Marco Gonzales, LHP SEA (@LAA, vs. TEX)
A week following a no-hitter it is probably odd to see Giolito outside the 70 tier. Frankly, I’m a little scared of his first start against the Twins. Minnesota roughed him up earlier in the season and I could see a hard crash back to Earth. I do like his backend start at Kansas City however.
Why is Hyun-Jin Ryu so high? Frankly he’s been pretty good and both @ Miami and @ Boston are friendly starts. Ryu has two rough starts to begin the season, but has turned a corner since the calendar flipped to August. Across five starts this month Ryu has produced a line of 28 IP, 31 strikeouts to 6 walks, a 1.61 ERA, 2.05 FIP, 11.9 SwStr%, a 35.2 O-Swing%, and a 64.1% groundball rate. I’d keep rolling him out.
Two start guys I’m gambling on here a little are Marco Gonzales and Ian Anderson. Gonzales is the model of consistency and he draws two friendly matchups this week. I’d expect a high probability of two quality starts from the crafty lefty. The other is Ian Anderson looked excellent in his debut. Might I even say every bit as good as Sixto Sanchez? He has elite feel for his changeup and an average fastball velocity of 94 mph. He executed with his fastball on the edges and his changeup down, mixing in his curveball. His elite extension allows everything to play up out of his hand and generates easy velocity. Atlanta needs a spark and Anderson looks capable of providing consistency even as a rookie.
I had an interesting conversation with a friend of mine this week about Julio Urias’ secondaries. After watching last week’s start, I was somewhat impressed with his curveball. Low and behold @eccentricladdie breaks down Urias curveball evolution below. Very encouraging down the stretch run if this shape maintains over the next month.
50 Grade And Definite: Jose Berrios, RHP MIN (vs. CWS, vs. DET), Dallas Keuchel, LHP CWS (@MIN, @KC), Adrian Houser, LHP MIL (vs. PIT, @CLE), Cristian Javier, RHP HOU (vs. TEX, @LAA), Tyler Glasnow, RHP TB (@NYY, vs. MIA), Dakota Hudson (@CIN, @CHC), Chris Paddack, RHP (@COL, @OAK)
The elephant in the room is I’m scared to death of starting Chris Paddack this week in either start. His fastball isn’t right and he’s giving up home runs at an alarming rate. He faces the Rockies in Colorado and the Athletics, who are eighth in team home runs. Paddack is averaging 2.45 HR/9 in 2020.
I had thoughts of ranking Keuchel a tier higher but he just doesn’t strikeout enough batters to garner a plus starting grade. Think of him as a 55+ and a strong play as the Twins have been sneaky bad versus left handed pitching in 2020.
I like the inconsistency of Adrian Houser this week. Even though Pittsburgh has been surprisingly above average against lefties. Houser has been solid-ish in his two previous starts versus the Pirates, we’ll see if he improves the third time out. Houser gets Cleveland in his second helping, and they’ve been awful versus left handed pitching this season ranking 29th in the league in team OPS versus LHP.
Tyler Glasnow and Jose Berrios suffer from one good start, one bad start syndrome this week. I’d avoid both the Glasnow New York start and the Berrios White Sox start.
40 Grade And Definite: Michael Pineda, RHP MIN (vs. CWS, vs. DET), Sean Manaea, LHP OAK (@SEA, vs. SD), Brad Keller, RHP KC (vs. CLE, vs. CWS), Chad Kuhl, RHP PIT (vs. CHC, vs. CIN), German Marquez, RHP (vs. SD, @LAD)
I wouldn’t recommend starting anyone in this tier for both starts outside of formats that reward innings and volume. No one in this tier has two clear cut matchups devoid of any red flags.
Speaking of red flags I’m not sure I want any part of German Marquez this week. San Diego in Coors and the Dodgers on the road. Only two of the best lineups in the game, yikes.
Chad Kuhl’s 2.52 ERA has an ugly secret. A 5.47 FIP and a dwindling K rate. His swinging strike rate the last two starts is 6.1%. This week he faces a Cincinnati team he was actually strong against in his start two weeks ago and a Cubs team that hit him hard in a relief appearance earlier this year.
Sean Manaea is a go for me early this week versus Seattle, but I’d likely bench him for the second start at home versus the Padres. Manaea has been just alright despite facing six teams in the bottom half of the league in team OPS across his seven starts. San Diego will be easily the best lineup he’s faced this season.
I love what Brad Keller has done across his first four starts as someone who rosters him but I don’t buy it. He walks way too many batters and he has one good pitch in his slider. Neither of his fastballs are very good and he never uses his changeup. Not many whiffs, high walks, and bad xwOBA data on his fastballs gives me real pause. There’s a time bomb ticking.
30 Grade And Indefinite: Anthony DeSclafani, RHP CIN (vs. STL, @PIT), Jon Lester, LHP CHC (@PIT, vs. STL), Alex Young, LHP ARI (@LAD, @SF), Trevor Williams, RHP PIT (@MIL, vs. CIN)
Don’t do this to yourself unless you’re in a weird points format.
20 Grade And Indefinite: Spencer Howard, RHP PHI (vs. WSH, @NYM), Erick Fedde, RHP WSH (@PHI, @ATL), Asher Wojciechowski, RHP (@TOR, vs. NYY), Kolby Allard, LHP TEX (@HOU, @SEA), Zack Godley, RHP BOS (vs. ATL, vs. TOR), Kyle Hart, LHP BOS (vs. ATL, vs. TOR), Matt Harvey, RHP KC (vs. CLE, vs. CWS)
Are the one start guys that bad?