Many years ago in a galaxy far, far away I did the weekly Top 100 Starter Update on Razzball. In a stunning turn of events I’ve dusted off my Jordans and come back wearing the 4-5. Actually, let’s hope I skip the Jordan #45 era and go right into #23 second 3-Peat Jordan. That I can’t tell you, you’ll just have to judge for yourself. What I can tell you is my process and what I’m weighing heavily in my ranks below.
Fastball Velocity and Pitch Mix: This is a combination of a few things, but it’s essentially an isolated pitch metrics, and some good old fashioned viewing. I want to answer the questions - What’s their arsenal and how do they deploy it? - Here I’m looking at a few things: fastball velo, pitch mix, and execution. I like pitchers that throw hard. Meaning if all things are equal, I’m likely to lean toward the hard thrower. Watching starts in my opinion is still paramount, context matters. Beyond that it gives you a true feel for a pitcher’s ability to execute. I follow that up with a variety of pitch specific metrics on Baseball Savant amongst others.
Swinging Strikes: I’m looking at swinging strike rate and how it translates to strikeout percentage. The ability to consistently miss bats is the second most important skill in fantasy outside limiting runs. Much like fastball velocity, all things being equal the pitcher with the greatest bat missing ability is going to win out.
Limiting Hard Contact: I’ll expand on this a little, with the advent of good expected stats things like xwOBA can tell us a lot. Simply put it tells us if a pitcher is limiting hard contact and it removes luck from the equation. We don’t know if it’s a pitcher’s command and location, raw movement and stuff, or a variety of other factors that allow them to miss barrels and qwell hard contact. Whatever it is, it explains in a simple metric that something is working. I’ll mix in groundball rate as well, it serves as a tiebreaker when expected outcomes are similar.
Command/Control: This is simple: does a pitcher walk batters? If he does, how many? It’s an indicator not only of a lack of control but of command of his arsenal. When that happens innings can go awry and pitch counts creep up.
Track Record: At a certain point in most seasons things stabilize and you have time to wait it out. We don’t have that same luxury in 2020. While I’m still holding out hope Blake Snell goes six innings, in a few weeks if he’s still going three, he’ll really drop. For now, I’m going to lean in a little on track record, but I’d be quick to move off players that don’t look right in redraft if need be.
Rankings Notes
I’m enamored with Brandon Woodruff. He might even be ranked too low. He combines all the best characteristics. His xwOBA is sub .250, his GB% is >60%, and he sports a SwStr% >14%. He technically has a five pitch arsenal but it’s heavy fastball (60%+) that can be broken up evenly between four-seam and two-seam variations. He mixes in his slider and changeup as his primary secondary depending upon handedness. He’s exclusively fastballs and sliders versus righthanders, but mixes fastballs and changeups, with an accent of his slider and curveball versus lefthanders. His four-seam misses bats versus both righties and lefties and he uses his arsenal effectively. Woodruff is a name that’s moving up with a bullet.
Another arm I’m high on is Spencer Turnbull. The best Tigers starter might not be who you think it is. Unless you think it’s Turnbull, then you’re correct. Granted he’s only made two starts, both against the Reds. He’s stifled a good lineup twice. He’s missing bats, driving weak contact and showing more command of his arsenal. The walk rate is up a little but he’s getting ahead early in counts and using his best secondary weapon, his slider, effectively. The fastball velocity is up almost a MPH and his slider is missing more bats. If these trends holdup, Turnbull could be a breakout in the shortened season.
I hope Sandy Alcantara is healthy first and foremost. Any positive test is bad, full stop. I don’t want to speculate on when or if Alcantara will be back, but I’ve ranked him without fear for now. Skills wise there is a lot to like about Alcantara. He has an excellent sinker with elite velocity and his changeup is a genuine out-pitch. He misses bats, limits hard contact, limits flyballs, and has the aforementioned elite velo. It’s a player I would chase in most fantasy formats and would try and trade for in dynasty.
Chris Bassitt should probably be ranked higher, but I’m going to hold him in the front of the 12-team #4 starter tier for the time being. Through three starts he’s been very good, going deep into games as he did last night holding the Astros to just six base runners and a single earned run.
Frankie Montas goes tonight and based on his high-end #2 tier ranking, I’m a believer. He’s ranking well in pitch quality metrics across the board but his slider and splitter give him two good secondaries right carve up lineups with.
While he couldn’t escape last night with a quality start against the Rockies, Yusei Kikuchi has continued to look much improved in 2020. But why? To answer that we need to answer two additional questions; What is driving this success? Is it sustainable long term?
The first is easy, Kikuchi has scraped his curveball and garaged his slider in lieu of a new cutter. A pitch he’s now throwing 40.2% of the time, nearly on par with his fastball usage. The cutter is significantly harder than any of his 2019 secondaries, in fact the cutter’s average velocity is equal to the average velocity of his four-seam fastball in 2019. It gives the lefty a true weapon to attack righthanders down and in and lefthanders down and away. Additionally Kikuchi has added giddy-up to his fastball averaging 95.1 mph in 2020 versus his 2019 average of 92.5. So more velo, more power, and a north-south approach with east to west location on his best secondary, his cutter. Long and the short, he’s throwing harder, throwing a better secondary, and executing a better plan of attack when it comes to location.