This is my first crack at a FAAB and Waiver Wire Watch for the 2020 season. Look for these to come out each Sunday afternoon in order to help with your pickup planning for the week ahead.
Potential pickups will be separated into three buckets using Fantrax ownership statistics
20-30% owned players should be available in 12-team mixed leagues
10-20% owned players should be available in 15-team mixed leagues
0-10% owned players should be available in deep dynasty formats and AL or NL-only leagues.
This next part is crucial. You should pick up players based on how they fit your roster, not based on a preference list. “Sunk cost fallacy” can be costly in fantasy baseball, so churn your roster of those underperforming players and take a shot at one that might be having a breakout season. Also, you need to monitor your standings in specific categories to see if those stats available in the free agent pool. Often times these are stolen bases and saves, but hitters moving up the batting order can help accumulate stats, pitchers that are moving into the rotation can help accumulate innings and drive down ratios if they are performing well.
Ok time to cut the crap.
12 TEAM Mixed (20-30% Owned)
Elieser Hernandez - Sp - MIA (27% Owned)
He looked good in his first start of 2020, punching out five Orioles and over a scoreless 4.1 IP. He should stick in the Miami rotation for the time being. His slider is a dirty weapon.
Joey Wendle - 2B/3B - TBR (26% Owned)
2B/3B eligible, might pick up SS eligibility too. He’s more of a guy who can plug some holes for you off the bench in daily moves leagues than someone you’ll want to count on in your lineup everyday because he’s not in the real life lineup everyday.
Matt kemp - of - col (26% owned)
He’s appeared in six of the last seven games for the Rockies, and is up .079 xwOBA over his last 50 plate appearances. He’s a must start for games at Coors, and probably start him elsewhere as well. Obviously an asset if you are chasing home runs.
Jake Cronenworth - 1B/SS - SDP (26% owned)
A unique 1B/SS eligible utility guy who just ran a six-game hit streak, including two solo home runs. He also plays on one of the teams that isn’t shy about running, and he has posted a 91st percentile sprint speed so far in 2020. Eric Hosmer is back as the club’s everyday 1B, but Cronenworth got the start at second base yesterday, showing off his versatility. Add everywhere.
Austin nola - c/1b - sea (25% owned)
C/1B eligible guy who will at the very least help you with batting average and OBP from the catcher slot moving forward.
Nick markakis - of - atl (25% owned)
Usually a solid batting average/OBP/stat accumulation play. Markakis has opted back in for the 2020 season and the Braves will be counting on his veteran presence down the stretch run and into the playoffs.
trevor rosenthal - rp - kcR (25% owned)
Picked up his third save of the season this weekend. He looks like Matheny’s preference in the closer role at the moment, and Matheny has relied on him as closer in the past. Ian Kennedy’s penchant for giving up the long ball in 2020 might have him relegated to the set-up role.
brandon bielak - sp - hou (24% owned)
Pitched 5 scoreless innings in a spot start this week. Houston’s pitching is a big mess, so there’s a chance Bielak gets another turn on Tuesday against the Giants, which should be a good spot for him if he earns the start.
andres Gimenez - 2b/ss - nym (23%)
Should be 2B/3B/SS eligible utility guy if his usage pattern holds up. He’s a steals play for as long as he stays in the lineup, 94th percentile sprint speed has resulted in two stolen bags so far this season. Playing time is really dependent on injuries though.
jose iglesias - ss - bal (20% owned)
He’s returned from injury and still batting 3rd in the order for the Orioles. OPS over 1.000 so far this season.
rafael Montero - rp - tex (20% owned)
Picked up the save for the Rangers on Friday and looked good doing it, striking out Mike Trout to finish it off. Then he picked up another save on Saturday night. Really nothing standing between him and the Rangers’ closer job if he stays healthy and looks like this.
15 team mixed (10-20% owned)
blake taylor - rp - hou (17% owned)
The Astros bullpen is a total MASH unit. Blake Taylor, a physical left-hander, has been the team’s best bullpen performer so far in 2020, giving up zero earned runs so far. He’s a half-step away from landing the team’s closer job.
carl Edwards Jr. - RP - SEA (16% owned)
He’s been arguably the Mariners best reliever so far this season, and he picked up a save on Wednesday. I don’t know if you can count on the Mariners to have a defined closer, but Carl’s Jr. is worth the punt if you’re chasing saves.
Jay bruce - of - phi (16% owned)
Jay the Bruce, always under-owned, perpetually hitting bombs. Slugging .800 over 7 games in 2020. He really should be owned everywhere.
Chance Sisco - c - bal (15% owned)
Looks like he’s Baltimore’s starting catcher. Rolling xwOBA up .084 points over his last 50 plate appearances. Philthy Projections called for a .772 OPS in 2020. Could be your primary catcher in 15-teamers.
Dane Dunning - SP - CWS (14%)
Team said he’s still building up to a starter’s workload, but the org has had potential starters dropping like flies so far in 2020. I think it will be Dunning’s turn sooner rather than later. The team can’t afford anymore bullpen game disasters like yesterday.
devin smeltzer - sp - min (14% owned)
He’s worth a punt if you’re chasing after wins, but I don’t think he’ll provide long term help for your fantasy pitching staff. Also, beware that he faces Milwaukee this week.
deep dynasy and al/nl only leagues (0-10% owned)
Chadwick Tromp - C - SFG (8% Owned)
Someone to think about as your second catcher in two-catcher leagues. Better as a batting average buoy than a OBP one though.
Josh Tomlin - RP - ATL (7% Owned)
He’s a long reliever that might vulture some wins and help out your K totals. He’s also might help gobble up some IPs in leagues that have added that as a category for the COVID season.
Phillip Evans - 3B - PIT (7% Owned)
3B eligible guy is hot at the plate and has been hitting second for the Pirates in recent games. He did leave yesterday’s game after a collision in the field though, so monitor his health.
Tommy Milone - SP - BAL (7% Owned)
Looking NICE. He held the Nats scoreless through 6 innings of work. His next start lines up against the Nationals again on Friday.
Humberto Mejia - SP - MIA (3% Owned)
Struck out 6 but only managed 2.1 innings in his MLB debut against the Mets this week. Maybe worth a speculative add if you’re chasing starting pitching, but he faces the Braves this week and that’s one of the best offenses in the league so far this season.
T.J. McFarland - RP - OAK (3% Owned)
Holds league specialist. McFarland usually solid at racking up holds and holding down ratios despite not missing many bats. Usually a good sim league piece as well.
Adam Duvall - OF - ATL (9% Owned)
Might only get playing time against lefties with Markakis returning to action. But he tends to kill lefties, so he might be worth an add in daily moves leagues with deeper bench.
Francisco Cervelli - C - MIA (5% Owned)
He’s the Marlins primary catcher until Jorge Alfaro returns from injury, and he’s always teed off on left-handers.
Phil Gosselin - OF - PHI (6% Owned)
I’ll be the bigger person here and admit that I don’t know who he is. But the Phillies’ schedule is going to be jammed up with doubleheaders as they try to make up games, with Gosselin’s bat in the lineup plenty.
Darin Ruf - 1B/OF - SFG (4% Owned)
So Ruf, so tuf. He’s doing his part against left-handers, and should keep getting playing time as long as he does. Bench piece in daily leagues.
Miguel castro - Rp - BAL (3% Owned)
Castro picked up the save for the Orioles last night. The stuff has been dirty dirty so far this season, fastball up to 99, slider and changeup both generating whiffs. It might be a little bit of an adventure, but I can see him as a closer.