Initially, RHP Corbin Martin seemed like the type of player who would eventually end up as a relief pitcher after spending time as a swingman in college at Texas A&M. However, Martin was able to develop his athletic frame into the starter type of arm Houston hoped to get when they selected him in the second round of the 2017 draft.
After spending a few years harnessing his pitches and command, Martin cracked the top 100 as a prospect prior to blowing out his elbow late into the 2019 summer. Shortly after his surgery, Martin was sent to the Diamondbacks as a piece in the Zack Greinke deal and he spent all of 2020 rehabbing setting up his return for the upcoming 2021 season. Some of the previous shine may have worn off allowing interested managers a chance to pounce on the opportunity at a potential mid rotation arm that could be cheaper than many arms with similar upside. Let’s break down Martin’s potential value and see whether he could be a worthwhile investment fresh off of Tommy John.
Pitch mix and usage
Fastball
Led by his fastball, Martin flashed three potentially plus pitches when he first started his professional career with the Astros. Success for Martin begins with a fastball that sits in the mid 90s and touches 98.
In his first short stint in the Majors, Martin heavily relied on his fastball for a whopping 62.6% usage. He was able to post a spin rate over 2400 on the pitch and limit damage overall allowing a .250 AVG against. By digging into his effectiveness with the pitch when he located in different parts of the plate, it can be seen that Martin actually managed to limit damage done against him in the heart of the zone and on chase pitches. However, the pitches in the shadow of the strike zone were the ones that really cost him as he allowed batters to slug almost .900 against his heater on such pitches.
Analytically, the fastball has always looked like a good pitch for Martin but his ability to command the zone was where many of the questions arose. In his limited big league sample size, it appears that aiming to really get the pitch outside the zone and induce more whiffs and weak contact will be an important thing to monitor when he makes his return this year.
Secondary Offerings
Similarly to his fastball, Martin’s breaking ball and changeup drew interest as potential plus pitches all the way back to his time in college. The movement and delivery of the pitches were enticing and gave teams reason to project Martin as a potential starter rather than only a relief pitcher. With such a limited big league sample, it hard to draw too many significant conclusions from these usages but it could still point to adjustments or trends to monitor moving forward.
Throughout his professional career, Martin tends to go with whichever breaking pitch he has a feel for that given day rather than strictly sticking to one over the other. During his time in the big leagues, he tended to lean towards the curveball as he all but abandoned the slider in the beginning of May against the Rangers and Red Sox (0.00% and 2.70% usage). He came back around to the pitch for his final three starts and was able to find more success with it before his injury.
Looking into the surface numbers, it appears that the changeup is a pitch that Martin really struggled with. However, he was actually able to produce a good number of whiffs on the pitch in a limited sample. Throughout his professional career he has been able to make significant strides with this pitch. The deception created by his change gives him the ability to let it run and induce whiffs. Martin left 11 of his 41 changeups in the heart of the plate leading to 3 of the 5 hits against him on the pitch. Meanwhile pitches thrown on the shadow of the plate induced an elite Chase% (50%) and Whiff% (42.9%). Again, the sample size is so small here from the short big league stint so drawing any major conclusions would be ill-advised. Using his changeup to get swings and misses on hitters looking to attack that big fastball is something I would love to see him do more of in the coming season so that will certainly be something to monitor.
Commanding the arsenal
Home Run trouble
An alarming part of Martin’s big league debut was the fact that he gave up eight long balls across only 19.1 innings. He had a tendency of leaving his pitches over the plate a little bit too much rather than letting his pitches work into the chase zone for hitters. Other than one home run on a fastball up and away to a RHB, the rest of the balls that he let leave the park were on pitches that just didn’t quite get off the plate enough.
Digging deeper, the numbers show that four of his home runs came in two-strike counts. Martin has worked hard to command his pitches after struggling to consistently do so during his time in college at Texas A&M. As a result, he may be working too much to keep the ball in the zone and not allowing his dynamic arsenal to work batters. The ability to throw strikes seems to have improved but he still needs to work on consistently hitting his spots and truly commanding his pitches.
Future Outlook
Overall, Corbin Martin has developed into the starter profile the Astros had hoped when they drafted him and should be in a great position to seize a rotation spot for the Diamondbacks this year after recovering from his injury last season. The stuff is without a doubt there and the strike throwing ability has improved every year. When he gets his next opportunity in the show, hopefully he will trust his pitches and throw them with confidence. The fastball is dynamic and the changeup mirrors it nicely. While many managers could be looking to chase the ‘new toys’ with mid rotation upside, the former top 100 prospect could be poised to give immediate value and holds a similar ceiling to many mid-tier pitching arms. Look to add Martin late in drafts or acquire him now while there is not too much excitement about the impending return.