In this piece, I’m going to go over some of the foundational trading mantras to follow when tearing down a win now team. If you missed the first piece, go back and read it here. It’s short and it talks about why I made the decision, the team I had, and how I decided which players were part of my next core.
To recap, this is a 20-tm OBP/QS H2H league that began in 2019.
So the big prizes for competing teams in my league were Jacob deGrom and Anthony Rendon. My goal was to move them first to set the market value and give the league a hint as to what kind of value I place on MLB pieces.
Spoiler Alert: They’re both still on my team!
I fielded plenty of offers for both, but ultimately I did not get the prized return I wanted.
Aim for the Elite
Takeaway #1 when trading away elite MLB talent is to aim for equally elite prospects or young players. Ideally I’d want a top 10 prospect bat, followed by multiple top 30-50 bats and maybe a few fliers hovering around the 100 mark.
For Rendon and deGrom, I had plenty of conversations with different managers and felt I got close to a deal for deGrom where Yordan Alvarez was the centerpiece but I couldn’t pull the trigger. Specifically with Yordan I feel there’s too much risk at such a young age about his ability to repeatedly play 150+ games a year. I’m OK being wrong here because I only have one shot to trade the best pitcher in baseball at the height of his value.
In a vacuum if I had to create an ideal trade for Jacob deGrom alone using only our Top 500 Prospect list, I’d want Jarred Kelenic, Trevor Larnach, Josh Jung, Peyton Burdick and Michael Busch. All are names inside our top 100. That’s a lot of firepower heading back (notice the intentional lack of pitchers) with plenty of those names within two years of debuting, which is also key. You don’t want to commit to a rebuild that lasts more than three years.
“But Eddy, nobody’s trading you that haul for a pitcher alone!”
You’re not wrong, but you got to sell your player and assess your trading partner’s playoff chances. Lay out their lineup if they had your pieces. “Hey, this is the best pitcher in baseball and now you’re going to have deGrom, Trevor Bauer and Luis Castillo as your top three in a 20-team league” Often times I find that managers are hesitant to start competing in earnest and they just need a push. And listen, prospects are just that, a prospect. Someone that’s likely to succeed but it isn’t guaranteed. I 100% admit that I thought Vlad Jr. would be a superstar by now. But he’s got his own warts still! Use that line of reasoning to your advantage.
Don’t be afraid of the discarded
One of the hardest things I’ve found during this process is to not overlook players whose value have cratered. It’s easy to go for the bats or pitchers that look like a sure thing because you feel more certainty. But what about someone like Miguel Andujar? Dylan Cease? Victor Robles? Jordan Hicks? It’s really tough to buy into after a down season or an injury but you can be patient with them and wait for the bounceback.
By tearing down you are OK waiting even a couple of years to see if someone’s value bumps up. So if it’s June and Robles is still hitting poorly, just keep hanging on instead of cutting him or selling him for dirt cheap. The assumption is that these names didn’t cost you a big price and therefore you’re not desperate to rid them off your roster.
If you believed in the pedigree and traded for Dansby Swanson after 2018 when he turned in a .699 OPS, guess what? You didn’t really get really get rewarded in 2019 either. But then if you still held on, after a great 2020 suddenly you have arguably a top 12 dynasty shortstop. It doesn’t always work. Domingo Santana probably had a few truthers out there and now he’s playing overseas. When in doubt, investigate the pedigree and prospect stock.
Patience, Patience, Patience
I hate writing that and I hate adhering to it, but fact of the matter is you’re not going to become a contending team any faster by moving all your assets in one month. Will you have scratched that trigger finger? Sure. But you’ll have deprived yourself of really playing the market, especially if you’ve done all your dealing in the offseason when player values remain static.
I mentioned before that I haven’t moved Rendon or deGrom yet. I haven’t gotten the proper value I feel appropriate given their skill level and the major boost they give to any team. So what happens now? I wait. In the season, there will be some surprise contenders. Those are the ones I’ll pounce on and pitch my players to, provided they have the return I’m looking for. It’s easier to convince someone to pay the price if they can see tangible results in the standings that they’re not far off from the top seed.
Of course, there is risk in this too. deGrom could suddenly blow his elbow out. Or his stuff could be diminished. Rendon might lose a touch of power and suddenly max out as a 25 HR bat. But if the market is not there, then hold out even longer to see the changing competitive landscape.
It’s OK to Recalibrate
I’m no fool. My price is really high for some of my MLB players and I’m determined to get someone to meet it. But if after months of negotiations and feeling out the rest of the league you truly don’t think anyone is going to meet it, you’ll need to reassess your expectations. It’s not ideal, but the silver lining is the next time someone else has a big major leaguer on the block, you’ll know they (hopefully) won’t get substantially more than what you did.
Turn Over All Stones
What’s a good way to ensure you get a desired return for a player? Create competition. How do you create competition? You let everyone know that someone is about to be on the move. Each league will always have its active traders that seem to get good deals. How? They take the initiative with others. If only 3-4 people knew I was moving deGrom, my pool of players I could net is much smaller. Whether you’re on GroupMe, an email chain, or league message boards, let everyone know you intend to move a player soon and you’re fielding all offers.
I go as far as having a deal in place with another manager, and then announcing “Hey all, I’m likely moving Player X tonight, reach out if you’re interested”. I don’t think it’s shady, you’re just looking for the best deal. And if the other manager thinks he’s offered something strong, he shouldn’t be worried either.
I like to comb through the rosters of managers are finished in the top half the previous year and then take note of who has the ammo to make a trade for a specific player of mine. These are the managers you can sell championship visions to. You’ll need to sit down, take some time and just do some due diligence. Don’t rush just for the sake of triggering some dopamine after hitting “Accept” on a trade.
Next Up
OK, for the next piece I’ll finally be breaking down the trades I’ve completed this offseason.