Recently, I introduced my prospect projection model. The follow breakdown can be found there, but, essentially, utilizing research on the stability of amateur baseball statistics and regressing based on tool grades, the model is able to compute a player’s projected output.
We’ve already used the model to look at some potential under-the-radar prospects, so today, we’ll turn our attention to the other side of the spectrum — looking at prospects that might be overvalued. This is a much more pessimistic article to write; trust me, glorifying prospects is much more fun! Thus, do not think of this as my model saying that these prospects aren’t talented in any way. Rather, their projections indicate they might have a hard time meeting expectations based on where they have been ranked by our team at Prospects Live. Without further adieu, let us look at ten prospects who you might want to sell high on in your dynasty league.
Note: The last Top 500 Dynasty update came in mid-February, so a lot of the breakouts/injuries/relevant news pieces that are known now were not reflected back then.
#1: SS Ronny Mauricio, New York Mets
Model Rank: 417
Prospects Live Rank 69
Projecting players at the lower levels can be difficult, and, to be fair, Ronny Mauricio had to play at Single-A as an 18-year-old, which is not easy to do.
However, there are still notable concerns when projecting Mauricio’s performance in the future. For his professional career, he is running a walk rate under five percent, which backs up reports of a untamed approach. If the aggressiveness simply showed up with not enough walks, that would already be a concern, yet it’s likely also contributing to his lack of power production (.089 ISO). Swinging at too many pitches on the edges of the plate can lead to weak contact, and since he’s hitting ground balls around 50 percent of the time, there seems to be a connection here.
Mauricio has plenty of time to develop. Nevertheless, there are other amateur shortstops that have shown more in the way of an optimized approach, and if he struggles again, his stock could take a great hit. “Toolsy” players sometimes struggle to meet expectations if they cannot put it all together, and although this might not be the case with Mauricio, the downside with him is significantly high. Thus, packaging him in a deal for a safer option, or targeting a different young shortstop, may be optimal.
#2: LHP DL Hall, Baltimore Orioles
Model Rank: 293
Prospects Live Rank: 48
To his credit, DL Hall has always been skilled when it comes to striking batters out. He has struck out 29.3 percent of the batters he has faced over his past two minor-league seasons at Single-A and High-A, which speaks to the overall depth and quality of his pitching arsenal; he is seen as a very hard-throwing lefty with multiple strong off speed offerings.
Yet, there is something missing in the equation with Hall, and it’s his command. He walked 15.6 percent of the batters he faced in 2019, which significantly hampered his K-BB ratio (2.15). Sure, that number will come down in the future, yet even then, there is significant room to develop in that area, and that would speak to him not being potentially as polished as you’d otherwise think with those strikeout skills.
It is also worthing noting that poor command can lead to other issues. Do keep in mind, for what it’s worth, that Hall also only induced ground balls at a 35.2% rate in 2019, and the home ballpark he’ll pitch in isn’t exactly pitcher friendly. Really, though, you’re not going to get cumulative stats from Hall, placing a greater priority on his efficiency. The hope is he can mirror Blake Snell, but if it’s closer to Robbie Ray as a ceiling comparison, is that worth the potential downside? Relying on chases is generally a dangerous game and more volatile, so while I wouldn’t completely abandon stock on Hall, I do think there are other pitchers, particularly lefties, that provide more value currently.
#3: SS Tyler Freeman, Cleveland Indians
Model Rank: 340
Prospects Live Rank: 38
Cleveland has an extensive amount of young shortstops in their system, and one prospect who has earned a lot of attention is Tyler Freeman.
The driving force with Freeman is his contact abilities. Many cite him as having a superb hit tool, which aligns well with a sub-10% strikeout rate throughout his minor-league career- an impressive feat for a 21-year-old.
Nevertheless, it’s not just about making contact, but the quality of said contact. Freeman posted a .104 ISO in 2019, which is quite low. Now, if he was an on-base menace, that would compensate for this, yet with a 4% walk rate for his minor-league career, there’s a lot of pressure being placed on his ability to hit for a high average. Given his lack of power, I wouldn’t expect the walks to become more prevalent- he’ll be challenged in the zone. However it’s worth noting that in the summer of 2020 he was flashing power at the alternate training site. We just haven’t seen it in game.
There is a lot of value in an up-the-middle player with strong contact skills, but for fantasy? Not so much. Players like David Fletcher and Nick Madrigal haven’t been hot commodities despite their overall pedigree, as the lack of quality contact lowers both their ceiling and their floor. It’s hard to see the pay-off with Freeman, and for this reason, you might want to sell him to someone who may overvalue the contact quantity over contact quality.
#4: 1B Lewin Diaz, Miami Marlins
Model Rank: 265
Prospects Live Rank: 87
Given the overall depth of quality offensive first basemen, the bar is very high to stand out at the position.
My model appears to be of the sentiment that Lewin Diaz does not quite clear that bar. The current Marlins prospect has seen his stock rise after a .270/.321/.530 slash line in 2019 between High-A and Double-A, yet, even then, there is reason to be concerned.
Relying on strictly power can be difficult, and greatly increases the “bust rate” of a prospect. Diaz’s low walk rate (6.6%) hampers his ability to get on base, so he unfortunately falls into that category. Do keep in mind that he posted a 68 wRC+ in 2018, making 2019 a breakout season.
The issue with the “power without plate discipline” approach is that plate discipline is important to increase one’s power production. As we discussed with Mauricio, swinging at the edges of the zone lowers your quality of contact likelihood, and this is a tendency that likely will get exploited. For what it’s worth, he struggled mightily in his first taste of MLB action (.400 OPS in 41 PA), and his current projections are concerning for someone that is already 24 years old.
If Diaz had this offensive production at, say, shortstop, then this is a different conversation. However, corner infielders need to be special offensively to provide value, and it’s unclear he has the on-base skills to stand out. Seeing as he’s unlikely to take over for Jesus Aguilar at first base this season, owners may went to act before his stock slips any further.
#5: OF/1B Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins
Model Rank: 155
Prospects Live Rank: 18
Sticking with lefty corner players, Alex Kirilloff falls into the same boat as Diaz to a certain extent.
There’s a lot to like about Kirilloff. Scouts have raved about his “hit tool” for a long time, his power is notable, and he also comes with first-round pedigree. However, when you really analyze the profile, could that pedigree may have slightly inflated his stock? While he has been a consistently above-average offensive producer in the minors, he also has relied on a batting average on balls in play over .350, which is unsustainable, especially with ground ball rates over 40%.
It’s important to not look simply at surface-level statistics to analyze prospects. As Kirilloff faces more quality defenses, and better pitching, both his batting average and power is likely to continue to decrease, and since he has yet to show a consistent ability to draw walks, that definitely hurts his offensive value. I’m always going to be wary of corner players with aggressive approaches, and it’s worth noting that most projections have Kirilloff being a below-average offensive producer, despite being 23-years-old and having strong minor-league production. With him being up with the Twins, his developmental timeline is finished, yet it’s unclear if it should be. Like with Diaz, if he played a different position, I’d be much more in favor of consensus rankings of him. Yet, corner outfielders with this profile are quite interchangeable, and given what you could potentially get in a trade for him, I’d certainly entertain offers for him.
#6: OF/1B Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles
Model Rank: 193
Rank: 62
Tell me if you have heard this before: here is a corner outfielder with cited hit-tool ability and power, but may not have the approach to clear the offensive bar he needs to.
By virtue of a 141 wRC+ in 141 MLB plate appearances in 2020, Ryan Mountcastle became a very hot commodity in dynasty leagues this offseason. Yet, he had never posted a wRC+ higher than than in the minors, and the gap between his wOBA (.377) and xWOBA (.328) was notable. A .398 batting average on balls in play certainly contributed to this, and a 7.9 BB% was also much higher than his baseline.
Needless to say, it was likely unreasonable to expect that Mountcastle to suddenly be better in the majors than he was in the minors. The plate discipline (5.1% BB, 21.3% K) in 2018 and 2019 at Double-A and Triple-A wasn’t an indicator of untapped offensive potential, and it aligns much more closely with his current discipline stats (4.5% BB, 31.8% K). Thus, the conversation shifts to him posting on-base percentages around .310, which places too much pressure on him to hit for power. With his lack of defensive value, meanwhile, the amount of chances he’ll get is less, so future playing time once Baltimore becomes more competitive is also a problem, as is the potential he becomes a designated hitter only. In other words, it may be time to see if there is still someone who is buying the 2020 production more than they perhaps should be.
#7: OF Drew Waters, Atlanta Braves
Model Rank: 106
Prospects Live Rank: 28
Unlike some of the players in front of him, Drew Waters may be able to play center field, and provides value in the way of stolen bases.
However, Waters’ approach is also even more of a concern that for the corner players. In 2019, for instance, he ran just a 6.8 BB% with a 28.6 K%, including a 36 K% once promoted to Triple-A. Currently, Fangraphs has him projected to post a 77 wRC+ if promoted to the majors, and with the importance of plate discipline numbers in the minors, this is likely why.
It is also worth noting that Waters has consistently posted ground ball rates over 45%, which means a) his borderline .400 batting average on balls in play won’t sustain in any way and b) you have to be worried about him constantly optimizing his raw power. Surface-level production takes a back seat to more stable peripheral statistics for prospect evaluation, but this dichotomy between the two presents a nice opportunity for dynasty owners to sell high. The return for Waters would likely be strong, and given the immense downside with players of this profile, you may want to target players with a higher floor.
#8: OF Cristian Pache, Atlanta Braves
Model Rank: 168
Prospects Live Rank: 39
A lot of what was said about Waters applies to his Atlanta teammate, Cristian Pache, yet to an even greater level.
Whereas Waters at least has the surface-level production and power, Pache doesn’t feature this as much. Outside of 2019, he never demonstrated the skillset to impact the baseball consistently, which generally has been an issue because, well, you guessed it: his plate discipline numbers are suboptimal- 6.4% career minor-league walk rate. For him to be able to consistently steal bases, he’ll need to be on base enough, and as another ground ball hitter who has relied on high batting average on balls in play, it’s unclear if he will be.
The early results in the majors have not been promising for Pache, with plate discipline and a lack of power presenting a problem. Now, he’s an elite defender in center field, which gives him value, but for fantasy, his 70 wRC+ projection summarizes him well — a player with more real-life value than dynasty league value. Given how highly he ranks on prospect lists because of that defense, it’s likely that dynasty league participators may struggle to make the distinction between the two, meaning that the opportunity to add other talented prospects to your roster must be capitalized.
#9: 3B Nolan Gorman, St.Louis Cardinals
Model Rank: 151
Rank: 32
I will note that without as much of a sample size as some of the other players on this list, the confidence interval in Nolan Gorman’s projection is much lower.
Yet, there are still reasons to be concerned about the Cardinal slugger moving forward. Strikeout rate loses its predictive power of success at higher levels, yet it does do a good job to weed out prospects in the lower levels, and Gorman is running a 29 K% throughout the first 786 minor-league plate appearances of his career. Furthermore, his walk rate has been rather volatile between levels, and although he has shown the ability to hit for power, that is at its lowest predictive power at the levels he’s at.
Gorman may end up being an elite power hitter, but a more reasonable mean comparison would be along the lines of Jake Lamb, and with his pull tendencies, his batting average and on-base percentage may be impacted by the shift (if it remains as is). I’m certainly buying into his power, but without any key skills, I might want to look elsewhere for a young corner infielder. Remember, third base is a very deep position, and that looks to continue to be the case moving forward.
#10: C Joey Bart, San Francisco Giants
Model Rank: 188
Prospects Live Rank: 91
There isn’t much of a difference between the two rankings here, but whereas he is listed as the third-best catcher at Prospects Live, my model currently has Joey Bart closer to being a fringe top-ten player at the position.
As the second-overall pick in the 2018 draft, expectations have been high for Bart to succeed Buster Posey in San Francisco. Yet, it may be time to recalibrate our expectations. Concerns about his approach have remained intact, and then some. A 31.8 K% and 6 BB% is not what you’re looking for, especially since he has generally been old for the level he’s at, and he’s relied on batting average luck. Given that he’s a catcher without much speed and high ground ball rates (which have also hurt his power numbers), I wouldn’t anticipate that approach working.
In fact, we’ve already seen Bart at the MLB level, and the results were not pretty:
2.7% BB, 36.9% K, .233/.288/.320, 69 wRC+
Mind you, that was with a .387 batting average on balls in play. Yes, he has the ability to hit the ball very hard, but with how big of an issue his pitch selection is, I’m not sure his tools will ever come to fruition offensively. A 24-year-old with a 76 wrc+ projection from Fangraphs isn’t generally a prospect I’d buy into, and although his defense makes him valuable in real life, the fantasy skills aren’t present. Quietly, I’m not sure he’s the best catcher in the Giants organization (hello, Patrick Bailey), and with his age, plate discipline issues, and unclear path to playing time, there’s a lot pointing to Bart being overvalued compared to other catching prospects. With his high pedigree, it’d be wise to make good on that in case he continues to struggle with his approach in the minors.
Overview
By no means would I suggest that these prospects are “doomed”. Development is not linear, and they all have intriguing skillsets that make them highly regarded. However, I am looking at this through an objective lens, and for me not to highlight potential reasons for worry would be suboptimal from a team-building perspective. All of these prospects come with notable issues with their peripheral production and the opportunity to sell high on them, which is something I recommend dynasty owners doing. Hopefully, these players can exceed my model projections for them, but, currently, they appear to be overvalued based on consensus opinion on them.