Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between two rookie outfielders and two established outfielders that are struggling, some intriguing veteran starting pitchers making some changes, and multiple talented offensive producers who just need more playing time, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes.
Dylan Carlson + Randy Arozarena: A Thought Experiment On Lofty Expectations
Based on wRC+, young outfielders Dylan Carlson and Randy Arozarena have been league-average bats. In their first year in the majors, that is rather reasonable, but not if you bought into the expectations surrounding those two. Both were expected (especially Arozarena) to be definite superstars, and now, dynasty owners are left wondering what to do with them.
However, this appears to be mostly be a situation where the players are fine, yet expectations were simply too high to begin with. We have a tendency to be infatuated with prospects and give them super high MLB comparisons, and then act surprised when they end up just being standard solid contributors. If you can take out the name value of these players and evaluate them based on mean outcome (rather than ceiling), though, I think this can give you a major edge in your leagues.
Let’s start with Carlson. With just a .251 AVG, .131 ISO, and zero stolen bases, he isn’t exactly producing in any category, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a viable fantasy asset moving forward. He has a strong track record of plate discipline and high on-base percentages in the minors, for instance, and that’s been true in the majors (.334 OBP) thus far. With enough speed and even sprays, he’ll hit for enough average, and should St.Louis become more aggressive, definitely is capable of stealing bases in the future.
The power is the main question, though. With just a 6.6% barrel rate, his underlying metrics aren’t in great shape, yet he’s making less weak contact and getting on top of balls below league average, while a greater portion of his balls are deemed solid contact. A less passive approach (18.6% called-strike) would not only decrease his strikeouts (25.1%), yet would also set him up to hit for more power. Hey, this sounds a lot like early-career Jesse Winker! Now, Carlson makes less contact than Winker, but also has more physical talent (power, speed), and still could easily develop into a strong all-around contributor. Remember, he’s just 22-years-old. Especially in OBP leagues, he’s someone to monitor as a potential buy low.
Then, there’s the greek god of the 2020 postseason, Randy Arozarena. With MLB Network analyst Harold Reynolds going as far as to proclaim the Rays outfielder the clear top prospect in baseball after his dominant postseason stretch, the 26-year-old’s stock was through the roof in dynasty leagues this offseason. Now, though, he's only mustered a 103 wRC+ with a .245 average and .146 ISO, which isn’t ideal for those who paid a premium for him. Fret not, though. Given his elite speed and even sprays, he’s someone who will continue to consistently overachieve his expected stats (which aren’t meant to predictive), and his 12.5% home run/fly ball certainly feels on the low side for someone who hits the ball as hard as he does. The BAT X projects him to post a 116 wRC+ and .186 ISO the rest of the way, which would put him in position for him to be a 20 home run + steal hitter with a fine batting average. Once again, a great fantasy asset, and someone you’re perfectly happy with if you remember that not every prospect is immediately Fernando Tatis Jr., Juan Soto, or Ronald Acuna. The price might still be too high for both of these players, yet it certainly is worth inquiring on their availability ahead of the trade deadline.
Cody Bellinger + George Springer: Have Patience
I’ll make this very simple: Cody Bellinger is not going to continue to post a 63 wRC+ for the rest of the season. I understand his strikeout rate is up and power is down, but he’s also been clearly injured this season (sprint speed down more than one ft/sec). With improved regression from a 9.5% home run/fly ball rate and a BABIP that isn’t .209, in addition to simply being healthier, better days are definitely ahead.
The same goes for George Springer, who has a 109 wRC+ this year and has hit for power, albeit with more strikeouts (26.3%). That said, there’s nothing else worrisome with his profile this year, and it’s been 95 plate appearances coming back from injury after a shortened 2020 season. Please have patience.
Two Pending Free Agent Starting Pitchers I Like
Starting pitchers who’ll be 30-years-old are older next season aren’t super exciting, but if you’re looking to contend, they are important parts to your team, especially in deep league. Ahead of the trade deadline, there are two pitchers I expect myself to be high on next season, especially if they find new teams.
The obvious headliner of the two is Jon Gray. The former third overall pick in the 2013 draft, expectations were quite high for the 29-year-old, though I have to wonder if he’s really failed to meet those expectations as many say. Yes, his 4.48 ERA isn’t appealing, but that comes with a 3.86 FIP- eliminate Colorado BABIP madness, and he’s already been a quality pitcher. To that lens, a 3.99 FIP in 2021 is right on line with Gray’s career baseline, but I’m really encouraged by where he is in terms of pitch mix. A horizontal fastball that can’t generate whiffs has bit him in the past, so he’s cut the usage on it to under 50% and utilizes it to get ground balls, something he does 50.8% of the time. Meanwhile, he continues to lean on his slider, which is his go-to whiff (38.7%) pitch, while he’s locating his changeup much lower (1.55 pitch height) in the zone to help induce ground balls. All told, he has a 30.6% strikeout rate and 2.67 FIP in his past five starts since coming back from injury, and could continue to be on the rise moving forward. I’m starting to get almost too excited about what getting out of Coors and to an organization than can better optimize his skillset can do for him!
Someone who has become quite familiar with changing teams is Drew Smyly, another former well-regarded prospect who hasn’t been quite the player he was expected to be, though injuries play a great role here. With a 5.15 FIP in Atlanta this season, there would appear to be little to be excited about here, or is there? See, Smyly earned an $11 million contract this offseason after a superb (2.01 FIP) 26-inning stretch with the Giants, which correlated with him throwing his curveball more and increased fastball velocity. Now, that was probably a reach given how small of a sample it was, but it was easy to understand the thought process, which might be working out for the Braves now. Smyly has thrown his curveball at least 42.9% of the time in each of his past four starts, and he’s now relying on to be his top offering. In that span, his ratios look a lot better; he’s limiting barrels (6%) and posted solid strikeout and walk rates (21.3% K, 7.4% BB) in that span. Look simply at the games that he’s thrown his curveball predominantly, and those numbers are much better. Am I reaching here? Probably. Then again, what’s the consequence of taking a shot on Smyly? It’s not like he’ll be rostered much in leagues, and there are definite tools in his toolset for him to lean on. With a better ballpark (Atlanta is brutal) next year, he could be in better shape, even if this is more a shot in the dark than anything else.
Smyly’s Pitch Usage By Game. Massive Increase In Curveballs Recently
Two Impact Hitters Who Need More Playing Time
We’re currently in the midst of updating our top-500 prospect rankings, and something that is always so frustrating is weighing the skills of the player offensively with his path to future playing time. When in doubt, though, I’ll always assume that talent wins out over time, and that should be the hope with Rowdy Tellez and Gavin Sheets: two first basemen/designated hitters with a lot to be intrigued by offensively.
Let’s start with Tellez, who was recently traded to the Brewers in a move that seemed to give him a better path to playing time than in Toronto. Sadly, that hasn’t completely come to fruition, as with Kolten Wong back at second base, Jace Peterson is filling in at first base, and with a 122 wRC+, it doesn’t look like he’ll lose that role soon. Still, Tellez is someone you want stashed on your bench in dynasty formats. When the big first baseman first came up in 2019, he showcased his massive power, yet did so with a 28.4% strikeout. That said, he’s only striking out 19.4% of the time since then, and although that hurt his quality of contact in 2020, the results in 2021 (12.3% barrel, under 40% ground ball) are significantly better. As someone who can serve as the strong side of a platoon and hit for enough average with loads of power, he’s a very underrated dynasty asset, especially with the universal DH expected in 2022.
The universal DH won’t save Sheets, who is stuck with the White Sox, who have Jose Abreu at first base and a combo of Andrew Vaughn/Eloy Jimenez as their designated hitter. Trades happen, though, and if so, Sheets’ stock could rise significantly. A consistent above-average performer in the minors, the 25-year-old has fared well in the first 53 plate appearances of his MLB career, and Steamer goes as far as to project a 107 wRC+ for the rest of the season. My favorite part above Sheets is the consistent contact he makes. He’s never struck out over 20% of the time at any level, which should help him hit for enough average even if his batting average on balls in play isn’t ideal. What’s more of a question is the power, but I’m not as dismissive of it as others. His underlying power metrics in the very small sample size (be careful here obviously) are encouraging, and in Triple-A this season, he showcased the most power of his career. Was there a mechanical change made in 2020? That’s the weirdness of there being no minor-league season last year, and just based on the possibility enough power is there, he’s also worth holding onto in dynasty leagues. I prefer Tellez, but I’m quite high on both should they ever get enough playing time.
Random Relievers Of The Week
Finally, to my favorite segment of the week- random relievers! These players aren’t conventional vertical power pitchers, yet may hold some appeal in very deep leagues moving forward.
The Dodgers have become a factory when it comes to finding relief gems, and Jake Reed may be the next in line. In 21 innings at Triple-A this year, the 28-year-old posted a 29.5% strikeout rate with just a 7.4% walk rate, and he’s held in his own in his first couple weeks in the majors thus far. What really opened my eyes, though, was simply watching him pitch. I mean, what is this??
King has some similarities to Ranger Suarez (now closing games for the Phillies) in that he has a clear ability to limit barrels, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the team even uses him as a starter at some point. Similarly to Ryan Yarbrough, he can be an effective matchups streamer is so, while there is definite appeal to him as a reliever. With most leagues having a cap on games started, King is a great way to manipulate that rule, and the SP/RP designation he’d hold if he moves into the rotation at any point needs to be considered. There’s actually more here to like than I thought there would be.
Other Notes
The Rays’ middle infield situation is maddening, with Wander Franco’s decent underlying numbers (tons of solid contact) not leading to instant success and Vidal Brujan not getting consistent playing time. If you’re making any rash judgements from this, however, you’d be doing yourself a disservice. Continue to enjoy owning two premier building blocks that any dynasty player should be dying to have on their team.
Interesting buy-low candidate? Orioles outfielder Anthony Santander. Although he has just a 79 wRC+ this season, you’d expect improvement from his current 9.4% HR/FB rate. Meanwhile, after coming back from injury, he’s hitting the ball in the air more, and has a .217 ISO projection from THE BAT X. I’m not expecting his price to be much high, and given that he’s just 26-years-old, he’s someone I want to target ahead of the trade deadline.
The Pirates are randomly interesting, with John Nogowski, Wilmer Difo, and Ben Gamel all performing. I discussed Nogowski on our new Double Dose podcast, but to sum it up; he should make enough contact to be strong from a batting average perspective in 15-team leagues and will have 1B/OF flexibility. Difo, meanwhile, is hitting the ball in the air (27.7% FB) more than ever, should overachieve his expected batting average based on even sprays and speed, and has positional flexibility. Gamel, too, has made a swing change to hit for more power (.180 ISO, 29.2% GB rate, 10.5% barrel), and has a 103 wRC+ projection from THE BAT X the rest of the way.