Ah the mailbag. Let’s see what joys it’s brought us this week:
“Here’s a question I’ve been wrestling with recently: how do you know when to cut a good prospect for someone else or hold on even when there may be other solid options out there?
I play in a 14T dynasty league where only about 90-100 ML guys are rostered. I have a few ML guys on my roster that I think have some great future promise like Michael Baez, Pache, and Sean Murphy. But I also see a number of potentially better guys out on the waiver wire, like Xavier Edwards, Jordyn Adams, Marco Luciano, MJ Melendez, Mark Vientos, Isaac Paredes, and George Valera.
I don’t want to cut a guy too quickly because his development isn’t progressing like a Jo Adell or Jesus Luzardo. But not every prospect hits their potential either. So how do you know when to cut bait for someone else versus holding out?”
We all suffer from this mindset from time to time because as owners we tend to overvalue our own players. There is also the part of our brain that worries about seller’s remorse if you drop a guy and he blows up. It looks like your league isn’t prospect heavy so you might just be recycling one guy for another. I like Pache a lot so I wouldn’t make a move there. Murphy looks like he could be up by the end of 2019 so if you have a need at catcher (who doesn’t?), he would be worth a hold. As for Baez, he is more advanced in his development than any of the names you mentioned but he is far from a sure thing.
If you are enamored with someone like Jordyn Adams or Mark Vientos you could certainly stash them but it will take years to get a return on the investment. I think you hit the nail on the head when you said those names could potentially be better but in a league where it isn’t super deep in terms of prospects, I think you can stand pat. - Jason Kamlowsky
Hey Joshua, I love this question. It seems that whether I’m in a league rostering 1,000 prospects or 250, I’m always struggling to drop someone with the fear they become great on someone else’s team. Call this PTSD from dropping Acuña in 2016. But in a league where 100 minor leaguers are rostered, you need to be targeting upside hitters and pitchers vs. middle of the rotation or safe guys. This means a Luis Patiño vs. a Michel Baez, a Marco Luciano instead of Sean Murphy. You want all the high upside guys as well because if they hit, they’re trade bait as well. TL;DR: The shallower the league, the more you focus on upside. -Eddy Almaguer
“Hey guys,
I need to trim the MiLB roster. Which of these are most expendable?
Kloffenstein
Dean Kremer
Keegan Akin
Tyreque Reed
Casey Golden
Blaze Alexander
Austin Allen
TJ Friedl
Brian Miller
Joe Gray
Jason Martin
Michael King
Tony Gonsolin
Jhoan Duran
PS — Like the “kinda new” website. You guys have built a strong team!”
Seems like a pretty deep league if you’re rostering these names. I’m not sure how many you’re supposed to cut but here are my bottom five, starting with most expendable: Casey Golden (remember his hitting environment!), TJ Friedl, Keegan Akin, Jason Martin, Austin Allen. -Eddy Almaguer
Here’s my bottom five Casey Golden, Tyreque Reed, TJ Friedl, Brian Miller, and Jason Martin. In a deeper format like this I’m banking on upside. That five looks like pack of AAAA types. - Ralph Lifshitz
“Dear PL,
I’m wondering about if I need another SP for my rotation. Right now I’ve got Sale, Flaherty, JA Happ and Folty as my top 4 SP keepers. With the news that Folty is being held out for elbow soreness I started asking around for SP with similar projected lines. The most promising response is from the Z. Wheeler owner. Thoughts on either of these scenarios:
1. Folty and N. Pearson or L. Garcia (WSH) for Wheeler
2. Pearson and Garcia for Wheeler.
We keep 6 MiLB players. I’ve got 8 after our draft now: Tatis, Kiriloff, Yordan Alvarez, Pearson, Gorman, Larnach, Garcia, and Valera.
Any help would be great!”
Hey Rob, I’d try and make deal number two, and pivot to Folty and Pearson if the Wheeler owner balks. Nice squad of minors! Good luck! - Ralph Lifshitz
Rob, you’ve correctly identified the minors guys I’d move out of that group, and I would try to hold on to Luis Garcia if you can. I like Pearson, but with how similar I value Foltynewicz and Wheeler, I’d make that deal to acquire more of the sure thing (for 2019) in Wheeler. As always though, let it be known to your league that you’re willing to move Pearson and potentially Garcia for pitching. Never know what offers that could generate! - Matt Thompson
“10 team league 5x5 OBP, we can keep up to 10 out of 29 players on roster at no increase on their auction price (or $2 for prospects) for a year and then guaranteed contracts plus 5$ each year. Then an online auction for the rest. I’m only keeping 4 players which tells you a lot about my last placed team!
We also have up to 10 players in a minor league farms BUT we can only add 3 prospects to it per year in April via a slow draft. Or via trade of players for prospects or minor league draft picks etc.
I have inherited a rubbish farm (Hunter Greene, Jay Groome, L Taveras, that’s literally it).
1) In a 10 team league (albeit 290 players deep), I feel this is very different to a deep keeper/dynasty league and I could be competitive in a few years so I should be aggressive from the get go? Is my farm less important in this league than it might be for other keeper/dynasty leagues?
2) I’m assuming that in this sort of league I should target high ceiling prospects rather than high floor ones given what will be available on the waiver wire in a 10 team league (290 rostered) when those prospects graduate? ie ‘steady’ prospects may be n better than what’s on the wire.
3) One move I’ve considered is offering to pick up someone else’s expensive guaranteed contract in return for also taking one of their prospects. Eg someone has an overpriced Gregory Polanco at $20 who he has to keep for 2019 but also has a TJ recovering Michael Kopech on his farm. Is this the sort of move you’d advise?? ie me taking on Polanco’s negative contract in return for also taking Kopech for my farm?
4) On the flip side, another move I’ve considered is offering my 2nd or 3rd round (of 3 rounds) prospect pick in return for Rhys Hoskins who will need to be offered a long term medium priced contract now and thus may be gettable. I have no solid hitting amongst my keepers and need a 1B.
Are either of these (Q3 or Q4) the type of move you’d recommend in my sort of league. I may be being wildly over-optimistic about what is achievable..!?
Many thanks!”
James, this seems like the type of league where I’d spend this year amassing elite prospects, whether by taking on bad contracts (the Kopech trade is a great example) or getting picks. I would not be trading your picks away. I’d also focus on bat prospects. Head to our Interactive Prospects List and hit our Top 100 OBP tab and start going down to list to see how to construct trades. Don’t be afraid to target young MLB bats that are on relatively OK contracts or might be forgotten. Miguel Sano, Ian Happ, Taijuan Walker, etc. Your team should be an incubator this season. And be quick to pounce on pitchers. Pablo Lopez, Trevor Richards, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, any of the near Braves pitchers. Hopefully you get to a point where you have a nice young core that’s cheap. -Eddy Almaguer
James - You are on the right track with the Polanco/Kopech idea. It is a strategy I have employed myself to accrue picks. If you have the cap space, look to take on as many of those bad one-year deals as possible in return for high ceiling guys and/or additional picks. A lot of contenders won’t value those nearly as much as you do given your roster construction and you should be able to unearth some guys who might be a year or two away which fits your window. I agree with Eddy on guys like Sano and Happ. Willie Calhoun would be another guy I would add to that list. - Jason Kamlowsky