You could see this one coming. Braves fans were growing restless with Ender Inciarte slashing an underwhelming .218/.300/.323 and Austin Riley tearing the cover off the ball in Gwinett. Riley had even started his previous four games in left field in preparation for this move, so when Inciarte had to be placed on the injured list with a back injury it made for a smooth transition for Riley even if it was a bit earlier than the Braves wanted it to be. Riley did everything he could to force this move, and his 15 homers currently leads the International League. He’s hit eight homers in his last eleven games in Gwinett, so not only is he the logical replacement in left, with Acuña moving to center, but he’s also the hot hand that can give the Braves offense a jolt.
Rankings
Riley ranked 31st on our Top 100 prospects list, 27th in our fantasy list and he was ranked as the number three prospect in a strong Braves farm system.
The Tools
Defense (40 Glove/60 Throw): I’ll admit I don’t have a strong enough sample to have any meaningful thoughts on Riley as an outfielder, but I will say he’s worked hard to get into better shape and improve his third base defense over the last two seasons. Josh Donaldson has reached the point in his MVP career that he needs time out of the lineup more than most, and it feels like that calf could flare up any day now, and if that happens I propose that the Braves put Riley at third and Johan Camargo in left field. Camargo has spent more time in left field this year, and you can take advantage of Riley’s best asset; his arm. Riley was a highly sought after pitching recruit prior to the draft but the Braves loved the bat enough to take him in the first round in 2015. Hard to argue with that process right now.
Hit (45/50): This might be a half grade higher than most, but there’s been some changes made to the swing. In a fantastic article over at Baseball America written by Josh Norris, which you can find here, he talks about how he struggled last season against premium velocity. He was on these pitches, but he wasn’t driving them. Riley was using Rapsodo and Trackman technology to his benefit and made a small alteration to his swing plane, which allowed him to get into a better position to drive the ball. It’s paid off so far. He’s also seen his strikeout rate in Triple A drop from 29% in Triple-A in 2018 to 19% this season. He’s also hitting for more power while reducing the strikeouts, and that will always catch my eye.
Power (70 Game/70 Raw): Riley has man strength, and with that alteration to his swing plane he’s tapping into it more frequently. He hits his homers in bunches, and he has three multi-homer games in Triple-A since the calendar flipped to May. In 13 games in Gwinnett this month he’s hit .360/.458/1.020 with ten homers. En fuego. I had some pre-season concerns about his ability to get to his plus raw power, but he’s making me into a believer. Supposedly he hit a 492-foot homer in Charlotte this year, and those are the same baseballs he will get to punish in Atlanta.
Speed (45 Present/40 Future): Riley is a below average runner that is only going to get slower. He’s stolen eight career bases since getting drafted in 2015 and has been caught seven times. Speed is not part of his game that you should be concerned with. One or two stolen bases, if that.
Prediction: If the Braves are willing to turn Inciarte into a fourth outfielder than we could see Riley adding a Peter Alonso like presence to the Braves lineup. He hit sixth during his Major League debut, and even homered for his first hit, but he should leap over Markakis and could find himself hitting behind Acuña and Freeman if Donaldson goes down, and there aren’t many spots better than that. Be cautious on your re-draft bidding for Riley as it’s not guarantee that he is up for the rest of the season, but if he hits he will stick. Be on the look out for any little pieces of news about the Braves plans for Riley going forward, because if you don’t you know your competitors will. I’d throw a 15-20% FAAB bid on him right now, but I’m aggressive with my FAAB bids.