As we waited for the MLB season to resume following the COVID-19 shutdown, the Korean Baseball League started to garner much more attention. With the games being televised on ESPN, we were given the opportunity to watch players that we otherwise may have not been aware of.
With their use of analytics and reputation for “zigging while every other team zags”, it’s clear that the Kiwoom Heroes are one of the top-run organizations. As I’m writing this piece, they are currently in third place, and are hoping to make a championship push. This is a critical season for them to win, as it looks like they’ll be without their top player next season. News broke on Thursday that they will post infielder Ha-Seong Kim for MLB teams this offseason.
Who is Ha-Seong Kim?
Well, he’s been one of the most consistent producers in the KBO. As of Oct. 8, he has a .304/.396/.522 slash line for Kiwoom, and this is the second straight season in which he has a wRC+ of 140 or higher. That certainly is intriguing, but is it enough for an MLB team to do whatever it takes to sign him? In my opinion, that answer is a resounding “yes”.
When judging hitters, the two most stable metrics are their walk rate and strikeout rate. Naturally, Kim is currently walking (12.2%) more than he is striking out (10.5%), which is a great indicator that he can carry over his offensive success to the MLB level. Additionally, he certainly isn’t sacrificing any hard contact in order to not strike out; in his six full seasons, he is averaging 21 home runs a season. All it takes is a click look at his swing to see that it is tailored for power:
Need more convincing? How about this nugget: Kim is only 25 years old! Thus, he’s not much older than your traditional minor-league prospect, but is far more refined with a much longer track record. Perhaps this is why many in the industry are extremely high on him, per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel:
When you add in the defensive ability and athleticism that he is cited for having, Kim doesn’t have any weakness to his game. Considering that the lack of a weakness can be one’s greatest strength, especially at a premium position, not only should he be considered one of the elite young prospects in the sport when posted, but I couldn’t see how a team wouldn’t want to have it.
Kim’s Value
So, how much Kim is worth? Per my model, which looks at stable metrics to project a player’s offensive and defensive production, Kim's value is likely to range from about $10 million to $16 million, though that is being conservative while projecting a downtick in his current production against more advanced pitching. Thus, in a perfect world, a five-year contract, which would take him to his age-30 season, worth about $12-$14 million would be an ideal benefit for the team. Sure, there is some risk in signing an international free agent rather than someone who has produced at the major-league level, but the payoff is substantial: landing a young everyday shortstop at a below-market race. In fact, considering Marcus Semien’s age, you could make a case that Kim is not only the most appealing free-agent shortstop, but a top-five free agent in this entire class; his youth is going to appeal to teams.
Where does Kim fit? Due to his age, he is very unique in that he ought to draw interest from both win-now organizations and teams looking towards the future. With that in mind, here are the ten teams that make sense both from a philosophical standpoint, but also from a need standpoint:
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners have always been active when it comes to signing international players, particularly from Asia. JP Crawford has been a solid player with plate discipline skills and above-average defense, but he hasn’t displayed much power whatsoever. For a team that is hoping to contend by 2022, Kim would be an excellent fit to complement a tremendous farm system.
San Francisco Giants: After finishing one game short of making the expanded playoffs, the Giants appear to be looking to contend in the near future. Outside of Marco Luciano, who may not stick at shortstop anyways, they lack young up-the-middle players, making Kim a perfect fit. Brandon Crawford is a fringe everyday shortstop in a contract year, so this helps them compete in 2021, but most importantly, definitely improves their future outlook.
Milwaukee Brewers: It doesn’t appear that Orlando Arcia and Luis Urias are going to cut it as the Brewers’ shortstops, especially when they also lack an everyday third baseman. Considering Keston Hiura’s defensive limitations at second base, Kim’s defense would be very useful, while his offense would help boost a thin lineup outside of Christian Yelich.
Boston Red Sox: With a poor farm system and not much financial flexibility, chief officer Chaim Bloom has to be creative in order to keep the team competitive while adding young talent. Kim would be an exciting addition to fortify an up-the-middle duo with Xander Bogaerts.
Baltimore Orioles: With catcher Adley Rutschman nearing his major-league debut, the Orioles could look to act quickly to add some young up-the-middle players to complement him. Kim would immediately be their best player, but signing him is about their 2022/2023 team.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians have always coveted middle infielders with sound bat control, and Kim fits the bill. Trading Francisco Lindor and replacing him with KBO superstar would be quite the turn of events, and it’s something that I’d seriously entertain if I were them.
Philadelphia Phillies: My models currently rank the Phillies’ farm system as the worst in the majors, and they are particularly thin when it comes to young middle infielders. This is the type of creative signing that could be huge for them if Kim is as productive as advertised.
Los Angeles Angels: The Angels are very similar to the Phillies in that they need to add a shortstop to improve their short-term outlook, but also must act to help their future as well. Kim and David Fletcher would be an exciting up-the-middle tandem just for the fact that they rarely strike out.
Arizona Diamondbacks: With Kim’s plate discipline and a need for his abilities, the Diamondbacks would be a natural fit. Unfortunately, all indications are that they are cutting payroll, which would take them of the sweepstakes.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Why not? The Dodgers don’t need Kim whatsoever, but they are losing Kike Hernandez and could also shop utility man Chris Taylor. They tend to care adding good players and going from there, which is what signing Kim would represent.
Other Possible Fits: Detroit Tigers, St.Louis Cardinals, Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins
Not only will a team need to sign Kim to a somewhat lofty contract, but they will also have to pay a direct fee to the Heroes depending on the size of contract. That’s quite the sacrifice for a player with no major-league track record. Yet, if I were running an organization, I’d be figuring out a way to do whatever it takes to secure his services. Not only is he probably one of the top prospects in the MLB, but he also is a much better bet to immediately produce, meaning that he’s a fit for all different types of teams. It’d be an understatement to say that a shortstop who walks more than he strikes out, projects for 15-20 home runs, and has no weakness grows on trees. For that reason, he is not only the most appealing free-agent shortstop available this offseason, but also arguably one the most interesting free agents of recent memory.