This is a series where we look at the six divisions and break down each team using four superlatives. Each writer was allowed to interpret the first three superlatives however they wanted.
Chicago White Sox
Their Strength: Slugging
If you had to guess which White Sox hitter would lead the team in home runs in the shortened 2020 season, who would you pick? Jose Abreu (92.0 mph average exit velocity in 2019), Edwin Encarnacion (90.0 mph), and Eloy Jimenez (91.2 mph) are all projected to hit double-digit home runs in 2020. Yoan Moncada (92.8 mph) broke out as a power-hitter in 2019, has shaken off COVID-19, and seems to be ready for 2020. Nomar Mazara (89.1 mph) said he re-worked his swing to try and drive the ball for extra bases more. He’s also a left-handed bat in a division that features a lot of right-handed pitching. And Luis Robert (90.0 mph) hit 32 HR and slugged .624 between three minor league stops in 2019. If they can get on base, this offense can score a lot of runs.
Their Weakness: Front-line Starting Pitching
Lucas Giolito spent the 2018-2019 offseason re-working his delivery after a rough 2018 campaign. He spent time in the lab with Rapsodo and focused on a Driveline influenced workout regimen. The result was a short, compact, clean arm action which vaulted Giolito into frontline starter conversation. However, he needs to prove this season that 2019 wasn’t a fluke. Behind Giolito, the White Sox signed a couple veteran innings-eaters (Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez) to bolster the rotation, but neither will be confused with an ace. Then there’s a triumvirate of promising youngsters with varying levels of uncertainty due to command, control, and health issues (Carlos Rodon, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease).
Their Secret Weapon: Yasmani Grandal
Yasmani Grandal might be the most influential free agent signing by the White Sox since Jim Thome. The organizational weakness of lacking front-line starting pitching can be at least partially offset by Grandal’s elite game-calling, framing, and experience. The organizational weakness of getting on-base can be at least partially offset by Grandal’s excellent ability to get on base (.380 OBP in 2019). And most importantly, Grandal might be able to lead one of the team’s promising young arms into becoming a front-line option. He’s already taught Dane Dunning a new changeup grip. He’s going to work with these young pitchers to try and get the most he can out of them.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Yermin Mercedes
Yermin Mercedes popped on the radar among the White Sox faithful after showing out for Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte in 2019. Then in an abbreviated spring training, he approached cult-hero status for peppering Camelback Ranch with hard hit balls. He has spent the COVID-19 lockdown getting shredded. Now, the team is giving him reps in left field and third base during Summer Camp with an eye toward getting his bat into the lineup. There’s no reason he can’t catch a heater and rake in this weird 60-game season if things break his way.
Cleveland Indians
Their Strength: Developing Pitching
This is the org that happily traded pitching savant Trevor Bauer away to another baseball team in the same state. Why? Because they didn’t need him! With former 4th round draft picks Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber sitting at the top of the rotation, Cleveland’s pitching is head and shoulders above anything else that’s on offer in the AL Central. A healthy Carlos Carrasco can sling it right along with the top two guys as well. All three of those starters are projected for a sub-4.00 ERA. Behind those anchors are a pair of promising youngsters that were both drafted by the team in 2016: Aaron Civale (3rd round) and Zach Plesac (12th round). Other future rotation pieces in the player pool? Logan Allen, Triston McKenzie, Sam Hentges, Eli Morgan, Daniel Espino, and Ethan Hankins. All of those kids outside of Allen were drafted by Cleveland. The organization keeps playing to this strength in pitching depth, and as a result they are in contention every year.
Their Weakness: Front Office
The face of the franchise, Francisco Lindor, is the constant subject of trade rumors. Why? It is taken for granted that the team simply won’t pay him what he’s worth when it is time for an extension. This coming from a franchise with the 4th lowest payroll in the Majors per Spotrac. Money was part of the reason they didn’t keep Trevor Bauer around as well. They should be spending to surround this young, competitive core with talent. Instead, they didn’t even try to retain a steady veteran producer like Yasiel Puig this offseason. They’ve been able to dominate a weakened AL Central over the last several seasons, but when the White Sox, Tigers, and Royals complete rebuilds there is a good chance that Cleveland is going to be on the outside looking in.
Their Secret Weapon: Oscar Mercado
Cleveland acquired Oscar Mercado from St. Louis in July of 2018. He put up a solid rookie campaign in 2019, and garnered votes in the AL Rookie of the Year voting. He was a versatile outfielder for the club, spending time in LF, CF, and RF. And he was a very strong with the glove, recording +5 Outs Above Average per Statcast, including four 5-star grabs. He also utilized his 98th percentile sprint speed on the basepaths, going 15-for-19 in stolen base attempts. And if the bat continues to flash a little more power like he did with the MLB ball last year (he slugged .496 in Triple-A), he becomes a nice all-around contributor for the team.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Jordan Luplow
The Indians traded for Jordan Luplow from the Pittsburgh Pirates as an outfield depth piece in the 2018-2019 offseason. Luplow got an 84 game look last year and responded by slugging .551 with 15 homers. How? Well first, he displayed a knack for finding the barrel, locking into a 12.1% barrel rate in 2019. This pushed him to career highs in Hard Hit% (38.3) and xWOBAcon (.406) last year. He feasted especially on left-handed pitching, with a .320 batting average and 14 of his 15 home runs coming against lefties. In the event that Luplow starts to figure out right-handed pitching a little more, there’s a sneaky slugger profile here.
Detroit Tigers
Their Strength: Draft Picks
There’s no way to sugarcoat this, the Tigers are a long way from contention in the AL Central. Their starting lineup has few long-term contributors, and one of their best present players, Matt Boyd, is likely to get traded if he starts the season off well. On the positive side, the team has picked several potential franchise-altering players in recent seasons; Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Riley Greene, and Spencer Torkelson. And following another down season in 2020, they are likely looking at adding Kumar Rocker, Jud Fabian, Jack Leiter, or another top player on our 2021 big board into their farm system. The wheels are slowly turning in the Motor City.
Their Weakness: Present Impact Bats
The team did move to sign a couple of veterans in C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop this offseason. But even with those two in the mix, the young hitters on the 40-man look awfully weak. Jeimer Candelario is on his last chance to prove something. Christin Stewart doesn’t slug enough to justify his lack of a defensive home. JaCoby Jones is already 28 and is projected for a sub-.300 OBP. Daz Cameron and Jake Rogers, who came over from Houston as the key pieces in the Justin Verlander trade, seem to profile as regular MLB contributors but they are not impact bats. The organization needs a young hitter that’s already at the big league level to breakout this season.
Their Secret Weapon: Victor Reyes
Victor Reyes is a tall, athletic, switch-hitting Venezuelan center fielder. He got a 100-game cup of coffee in 2018 and looked overmatched. But in 2019, he started to put some things together and he posted a .767 OPS in 69 games. His exit velocity, launch angle, and hard-hit percentage all improved, and he batted .304. His wheels (91st percentile sprint speed) should keep his BABIP up and also makes him a threat to steal bags and take extra bases on the base paths. His overall athleticism suggests that there may be some more pop lurking in the bat. If he can put everything together, he’s a switch-hitting center fielder and leadoff man with top tier athleticism.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Frank Schwindel
Frank Schwindel, aka “The Schwindiesel”, was signed by the Tigers after being cut by division rivals Kansas City. He’s a true journeyman 1B, but he can also really hit. Schwindel has posted slugging averages above .500 at six different stops in his minor league career and has batted over .300 four times. The reports out of Summer Camp is that he’s impressing at the plate and hitting the ball hard. Something as simple as Miguel Cabrera missing time might give Schwindel full time at-bats between 1B and DH in a shortened 2020 campaign.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Their Strength: the Top Half of the lineup
The lineup starts with Whit Merrifield. He’s a persistently valuable, underrated player who carries one of the top team-friendly contracts in baseball with an AAV around $4 million per year. He’s put up 2.8, 5.2, and 2.9 fWAR over the last 3 seasons. If his production holds, he will cost the Royals around $1.25 million per win during his present contract. A fantastic bargain.
Behind Merrifield is the dynamic Adalberto Mondesi. He just turned 25, and has posted both 99th percentile sprint speed (2019) and a barrel rate over 10% (2018) in the Majors. Here’s hoping that 2020 is the season that he does both at the same time. Jorge Soler follows. He’s a former top prospect who had a career year in 2019 when he discovered the aerodynamic properties of last year’s baseball and adjusted his approach accordingly. He hit an eye-popping 70 barrels last year.
Then in the cleanup spot is Hunter Dozier. Dozier is also a fantastic athlete, posting an 80th percentile sprint speed last year while also checking in at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. His 91.1 mph exit velocity was good for an 83rd percentile mark last year, and his strikeout rate has improved in each of the past three seasons.
Their Weakness: No starting pitching
With Brad Keller on the indefinite quarantine shelf, FanGraphs Steamer is projecting that journeyman swingman Mike Montgomery will be the most effective pitcher in the rotation with a 4.62 ERA. Jakob Junis has a devilish weapon in his slider. Batters hit just .152 against the slider last year and experienced a whiff rate of 38.2% chasing it. But the ancillary pieces just haven’t come together for him. The Royals’ player pool is full of recently drafted reinforcements in Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar, but don’t count on the organization starting their clocks this season unless they are a surprise contender.
Their Secret Weapon: Franchy Cordero
This one feels like a bit of a cheat, but the Royals just acquired Franchy Cordero in a trade with San Diego that sent left-handed reliever Tim Hill to the Friars. Franchy has long been a Statcast darling, but has yet to put everything together on the diamond on a regular basis. However, part of the issue was that he was unable to secure regular playing time in a crowded outfield. Now, he’s got an everyday job in Kansas City and so time in this shortened season to settle into the role. If he turns into a left-handed slugger who can cut down on the strikeouts and slot in behind the top half of the lineup and offer some protection, he could be a difference maker for this offense in 2020.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Josh Staumont
Josh Staumont spent the quarantine growing an Uhtred of Bebbanburg style man-bun and lighting up the Rapsodo panel with a 103.8 mph fastball. The dude throws gas, he does not always know where it is going, and he will be fun to watch coming out of the Kansas City bullpen this season. In the event that Ian Kennedy is traded or unable to perform as the closer for the Royals, there’s a chance that Staumont gets his chance in the spotlight. Destiny is all.
Minnesota Twins
Their Strength: Their strength
In 2019, the Twins “Bomba Squad” set the Major League team home run record with 307 home runs. Then, this offseason, they added Josh Donaldson to the mix. Our projections have 5 different Twins bats hitting double-digit home runs this season; Nelson Cruz (16), Miguel Sanó (14), Eddie Rosario (11), Josh Donaldson (11), and Max Kepler (10). This is a team that can put runs on the board at the drop of a hat.
Their Weakness: Relying on aging pitchers
José Berríos is the young anchor of the rotation. He’s not an ace, but there are times that he looks like one. However, the back half of the rotation is going to rely on starters that are on the wrong side of 30; Kenta Maeda (32), Homer Bailey (34), and Rich Hill (40). Maeada has dealt with lower-body injuries during his career, Bailey has underwent Tommy John and also needed a procedure to clear out bone spurs a couple years back, and Hill’s high-water mark for innings pitched in a season is 135.2. It’s a trio of skilled twirlers, but the Twins must be careful relying on them to carry the team in this shortened season.
Their Secret Weapon: Lewis Thorpe
He’s scheduled to start the season in a swingman role out of the bullpen, but Aussie left-hander Lewis Thorpe might shine in the event the team needs him to fill a rotation role. He’s flashed both strikeout upside and excellent control in the minors. He’s filled up the zone with strikes in his Summer Camp appearances so far this season. He also uses a four-pitch mix to keep hitters off-balance and induce weak contact. His fastball (22.4%), slider (44.6%), and changeup (29.6%) all had whiff rates above 20% last season as well. He can help the club in a variety of ways in 2020.
The Possible Out of Nowhere Guy: Jake Cave
I had to double check the projections that my system spit out for Jake Cave, who has always struck me as a Quad-A bat. But the Philthy Projections give him a .264/.332/.475 triple slash line with 8 HR if he’s able to land a full time gig. Why are they so optimistic? Well, the Philthy Projections reward a player for hitting lots of line drives, hitting the ball hard, and finding the barrel. He hits a ton of line drives (25.4% career LD-rate), hits the ball consistently hard (43.6% hard-hit rate in 537 career MLB PAs), and has a knack for finding the barrel (13.7% career MLB barrel rate). He needs a path to regular playing time, but Cave is a guy who could get a string of good BABIP luck and put up a surprisingly stellar season in 2020.