Something we started doing last year for our Big League Debut posts for pitchers is watching the debut and charting the game for the pitcher. I want to get a feel for the pitcher, how he attacks and sequences, and also compare what we see to scouting reports. Today’s subject is newly called up Brady Singer.
Rankings: Singer checked in as our 88th ranked prospect on the Prospects Live Top 100 Prospects List and was the fourth-ranked Royals prospect on our Royals top 30.
Background/Physical Description: The big Floridian right-hander was selected by the Toronto Blue Jays in the second round of the 2015 MLB Draft but an issue with his physical caused the deal to fall apart and he enrolled at the University of Florida. He pitched out of the bullpen as a freshman but would start his sophomore and junior seasons. He finished his collegiate career by winning the SEC Pitcher of the Year Award and his Gators made it to Omaha in all three seasons with one National Championship. The Royals selected him with the 18th overall pick and he signed for an over-slot $4.2 million.
The lean, athletic Singer stands six-foot-five and is listed at 210 pounds. He’s a long, lanky arm with a big-league frame. I don’t have concerns about him holding up as a starter long term, the only thing that could push him to the bullpen is the pitch mix. He’s fiery on the mound and wears his emotions on his sleeve. That said, he thrives in high-pressure situations and nerves won’t be an issue here.
Pitch Mix: For the pitch mix we will use the reports from our Royals Top 30, written by Will Scharnagl as well as a live looks post Royals 2018 instructs from Prospects Live founder turned pro scout Jason Pennini. He primarily features a sinking low-90s fastball with a low-80s sweeping slider and a developing change with depth and run.
Health: I don’t want to jinx anything here but Singer has been remarkably durable since the unknown issue with his physical that popped up and nixed the Blue Jays deal. He didn’t pitch the summer after the draft citing a heavy workload during the Gators College World Series run and a minor hamstring issue. He only required 26 minor league starts before reaching the majors, and has thrown over 100 pitches in five of those starts and not being overly cautious.
Outcomes: Singer has the makings of a number four starter which makes him a solid role 50 arm. I reserve the right to change my opinion should he develop a more consistent third pitch. The rise of the Royals other 2018, 2019 and 2020 arms could push Singer into the closer role long term due to his mentality and fiery mound presence. The lack of a third pitch is much less of an issue in a high leverage relief role.
First Inning: Right away you notice the unique delivery that Singer has. Athletic with quick feet, former colleague Jason Pennini described it as a “special blend of momentum and balance.” He comes out of the gate firing with two 95 MPH heaters (mlb.tv feed) and finds the count at 1-1 to Indians leadoff man Cesar Hernandez. He then dropped a beautiful slider that dropped just beneath the zone and Hernandez couldn’t check his swing. He then got a groundout on a similarly placed slider. He walked Jose Ramirez but there’s a pretty easy to determine pattern so far. Get ahead with the sinker and then throw the tight breaking slider low in the zone to lefties. Lindor and Carlos Santana both flew out to left on sinkers running away from them that missed high. You’ll notice this kid works quickly. That’s a good trait for a sinkerballer to have.
Second Inning: We finally get to see him go to work against a right-handed bat as Franmil Reyes steps to the plate. The sequence is pretty clear again with a 94 MPH heater for a strike and an 85 MPH slider that missed down and away. He then gets another fastball for a strike followed by, you guessed it, another slider off the corner but Franmil chased for the strikeout. The same pattern against lefty Daniel Johnson got him to 1-1 but then he threw an 89 MPH changeup off the plate that Johnson hit to center for a flyout. The pitch lacked fade, and was essentially a show me pitch.
Third Inning: The third inning started with two straight heaters to Roberto Perez and then dropped a tight slider to get the count to 1-2. He went back to the well again with a beautifully shaped slider but it was just off the corner, 2-2. The third straight slider that dropped low in the zone got him to chase for the strikeout. Three straight lefties followed and all made loud, hard contact against Singer. Zimmer and Cesar Hernandez hit fastballs but Jose Ramirez hit a slider for an RBI knock. Striking out Lindor on a nice slider with runners on the corners gave him new life, but a wild pitch on a slider down and in would get a run in. Went really slider heavy to finish the frame. Eight sliders in a row.
Fourth Inning: He started the fourth off with two more sliders, ten in a row. Franmil finally saw a fastball and got swing happy, but it was well out of the zone. Singer then finished him off with……yeah man, a slider. Got the strikeout. Daniel Johnson got the count to 3-2 and Singer threw his best fastball of the night, The arm side run brought the pitch back to the inside corner for the K looking.
Fifth Inning: He got ahead of Perez with the slider and would finish him off with the slider, typical singer fashion. For his sixth strikeout. He jumped ahead of Bradley Zimmer 0-2, but then tried to run that fastball back in again. He missed but he’s adding a wrinkle to the sequence. He will go inside against lefties, and in fact, that’s his preference. His 80th and final pitch of the night was a strikeout to Jose Ramirez on a sinker that was supposed to be in but ran off the outside corner and he couldn’t hold up.
The final line: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K. 80 pitches, 49 strikes.
Sinker (Present 55/Future 60): This is a quality offering as far as movement and velocity go, the only thing holding him back is command. He was getting too much of the plate at times and went a stretch where he abandoned the pitch and threw ten straight sliders. More consistency with this pitch is required for long term success if he’s going to feature just two pitches.
Slider (Present 60/Future 60): This is a plus pitch. He’s confident in it and will throw it in any count, even in his first big league start. We saw a 3-1 slider. It has the sharp downward bite and depth you desire and was the main driver behind his 17.5 SwStr% and 40% CSW.
Changeup (Present 30/Future 40): Singer has changed the grip on his changeup many times throughout his career and still hasn’t found one he trusts. He used the pitch 2.5% of the time during his debut, and one his hit for a lineout. It’s a little firmer than you want, averaging 88.5 MPH, providing a middle ground between his fastball and slider. With even a 40 change Singer can solidify himself as a mid-rotation arm long term, but it’s not a usable pitch right now.
Conclusion: He’s more of a two-pitch arm than the scouting reports indicated with 78 of his 80 pitches being either the sinker or the slider. The changeup was thrown twice and I’m not confident in his ability to develop that pitch into something more. 40 of his 80 pitches were sinkers, 38 sliders and two changeups. His low three-quarters arm slot generates a ton of arm-side movement on the sinker, and his slider has tremendous depth that makes it a weapon that generates weak contact as well as misses bats. I’ve said it before but I’ll say it again. He needs to develop a pitch to keep lefties off of him. His slider is always thrown glove side, independent of the handedness of the hitter, and I think there’s too much predictability there for someone that only throws two pitches. You can guess pitch and location. Needs to add a different look. All that being said, he’s a longterm number four starter for me with modest strikeout upside. I’d love to see him shifted to a high leverage relief arm long term if he can’t figure out a third look.