It’s the player we’ve all been waiting to see! We waited a whole week!
If my 2020-to-normal time conversion calculations are correct translates to three full months. That’s correct, loyal reader, the Toronto Blue Jays have called up top prospect Nate Pearson for tonight’s showdown with the defending World Series champion Nationals. In a premiere match-up, Pearson will debut across from certified ace and former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer. With a fair amount of in person viewing history with Pearson, I feel comfortable walking you through what to expect from the enormous righthander.
Rankings: Pearson was ranked as the top prospect in the Blue Jays system, he ranked 25th in our Pre-Season Fantasy Top 100 and 17th in our future value based Pre-season Top 100
Background: Initially a signing of Florida International, Pearson spent his freshman season with the Panthers, appearing in 19 games, 18 of which were out of the pen. Following the 2016 season, Pearson entered the transfer portal and matriculated to the Junior College of Central Florida where he put up outstanding numbers during his one season with the Patriots program. Despite impressive size at 6-foot-6 250 lbs, Pearson dropped to the Blue Jays at the back end of the first round where Toronto selected him 28th overall.
At the time, questions surrounded Pearson due to two perceived knocks: health (Pearson needed a screw put into his right elbow as a prep), and the quality of his secondaries. One knock he’s been able to shake, while the other knock has lingered, even if it’s in large part due to luck. We’ll jump into a detailed breakdown of Pearson’s pitch mix and health in a later sections.
Physical Description: Big bodied at 6-foot-6, 250 lbs, Pearson strikes an opposing figure on the mound and does a good job of getting downhill, extending, and using his length and size to his advantage. A stoic presence on the mound, Pearson rarely shows emotion, but a quiet, controlled focus that allows him to lock-in and slow the game down.
Pitch Mix: Pearson mixes an elite velocity fastball that sits 96-98 mph in his starts with the ability to reach back at any moment for 100-101 mph heat. I’ve seen him hold triple digit velocity for full innings. His deep mix of secondaries features a hard breaking slider that touches 95 mph, but will sit low-90s for periods. He has a second breaking ball in his high-70s to low-80s curveball and is often used as an off-speed pitch early on in counts. The final piece of Pearson’s repertoire is an above-average changeup that will flash plus when he has feel for it.
Health: The injury Pearson sustained in his first start of 2018 was as freak as freak gets. Early in his start Pearson was hit by a comebacker that fractured his ulna in his forearm. The injury kept him on the shelf for the entirety of 2018 as he nursed himself back to health. Bad luck? Absolutely. But an injury that’s predictive of future injuries? Hardly. The only other injury he’s sustained as a professional was an intercostal strain that didn’t shelf him long.
The Blue Jays took a conservative approach with Pearson early in 2019, alternating between two inning turns and more traditional five to six inning starts. Following the All-Star Break, Toronto was comfortable enough with Pearson’s health to lift restrictions and let the right-hander start on a normal schedule and pitch count. Over the following eight starts between Double-A and Triple-A, Pearson went 46.1 innings, striking out 47 batters to just 14 walks. He limited opposing hitters to a batting average against of .170. All this was good enough for measures of a 3.41 FIP, 2.14 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and a 3.36 K/BB. Even more remarkable, when you consider it was his first extended run as a starter in the highest level of the minors.
The question still remains if Pearson can consistently accumulate 170+ innings annually? But his ability to ramp up to 100 innings in 2019, from next to none in 2018 speaks highly of his ability to do so.
Outcomes: The term “Ace” is one I shy away from, 70 FV arms are rare in our game, and I’d rather set realistic expectations. That said, could Pearson push for true top-10 pitcher dominance at peak? Yes, he features a deep, quality mix of pitches, and the physicality often associated with top of the rotation horses. Will he reach that lofty stratosphere? Unlikely, but there’s enough tools and talent to not write it off. Ultimately I see Pearson as a high end number three starter for a playoff team with number two seasons at peak. The biggest question around Pearson is his ability to handle a 170+ inning season, but as I mentioned in the health section, there are reasons for optimism.
Fastball (Present 60/Future 70): Over the course of Pearson’s career he’s always featured premium velocity, however he’s lacked the swing and miss numbers you would expect on such a high velocity fastball. By and large it’s been a pitch he uses to drive weak contact. However, it began to play-up as he attacked north-south with regularity, letting the pitch’s rise play in the upper quadrants. He did however at times struggle to land the fastball up without overthrowing it, which Pearson is prone to do when he’s out of sync mechanically.
Pearson’s height however allows him to work low in the zone and throw his electric fastball with big downhill plane, which drives a good amount of contact that is beat into the ground. He can get arm-side run when he works low in the zone, where his heater has it’s best command, and compliments his changeup. Ultimately, Pearson’s ability to command his fastball up will dictate if it develops into an elite bat missing pitch or the weak-contact driving offering with elite velocity it was in 2019.
Slider (Present 60/ Future 60): It’s a breaking ball that sits 88-92 mph conservatively and can touch 95 mph at its hottest. The pitch features 11 to 5 movement and late negative v-mov that leads me to believe it’s a low spin-efficiency offering that generates gyro spin. It’s by far his best swing and miss pitch, getting swinging strikes from both righthanded batters and lefthanders in my looks. The only knock is it lacks pinpoint control and command, due to its late movement. The pitch is by no means surgical, but as previously stated that’s in large part due to its movement characteristics.
Changeup (Present 50/Future 55): The 2019 campaign was a big year for Pearson’s development of his changeup, which he became more comfortable throwing in a multitude of counts. The pitch will show nice tumble and late fade, giving Pearson a true secondary weapon against lefthanded batters should his slider be off on a given day. It’s flashed plus, but inconsistent quality. The pitch did improve with each start throughout the season, and the reports were glowing on the pitch in camp and Spring Training 1.0.
Curveball (Present 40/Future 45): This is Pearson’s only true below average offering. A 12-6 downer curveball, the righthander will throw it early in counts to steal strikes. It’s almost a second off-speed pitch more than a second breaking ball, at least in terms of function. The pitch worked in the low-80s to high-70s at times and is unlikely to be a major part of Pearson’s future success.
Conclusion: Nate Pearson is poised for major league success in 2020 and should see less restrictions than usual due to the short schedule 2020 campaign. Armed with elite fastball velocity, physicality, and a deep arsenal of secondaries, Pearson can take the next step to potential top of the order starter with more refinement as a pitcher. An improvement in command and advanced sequencing can see Pearson blow past his ceiling. The questions around Pearson’s long term viability as a starter look to be on hold for now as the Toronto organization has committed to Pearson as a starter early in 2020. Few pitchers feature Pearson’s raw intangibles, and he’s improved each season as a professional, a good sign of a hard worker and determined professional.