Suffering through a rash of injuries, the Chicago White Sox have called up right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning from their alternative training site.
The Player
Dane Dunning has always seemed to be a guy who was second or third on the list of players to note on his own team. He was part of an excellent University of Florida pitching staff that also featured future first-round picks A.J. Puk and Alex Faedo, spending much of his time in the Gator bullpen. Even when he was traded to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton, he was widely considered the third piece of the trade, along with pitchers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez.
His bespectacled demeanor may not intimidate on the mound, but he’s consistently struck out more than a hitter per inning through his minor league travels. Quickly ascending to the upper minors by the end of his second full season in 2018 before he succumbed to Tommy John surgery, and missed the entire 2019 season.
The Rankings
In our recent top 500 fantasy prospects list, Dane Dunning appeared at #228 overall. He rated as our #6 Chicago White Sox prospect in our offseason team top-30 list.
The Pitches
Fastball (45 present/55 future) - The fastball for Dunning gains plus grades, not purely due to his velocity. Which sits 91-94 and peaks at 96, but also due to the hard, heavy sink that Dunning generates on the pitch. The pitch generates late movement. Allowing him to miss barrels, generate plenty of ground balls and weak pop ups consistently with the pitch when he’s healthy.
Slider (55 present/60 future) - Coming out of college, Dunning’s slider was considered his best pitch. With sharp 10-4 break on it, that often saws off right-handed hitters, and darts away from left-handed hitters. Though he had inconsistent depth with the pitch early on as a pro, it has always an effective pitch for Dunning.
Curveball (50 present/60 future) - However, before his surgery, the pitch that was beginning to draw plenty of attention was Dunning’s spike curve. After he was drafted by the Nationals, he focused on his change and abandoned his curve until he was traded to the White Sox. Bringing back the spike curve in 2018 was a VERY good thing for Dunning. Giving him not just a strikeout pitch, but a pitch that left batters completely frozen. The question is how much throwing that pitch again had to do with the elbow issues that led to his surgery. And that’s a question that’s been asked inside and outside the White Sox organization. So whether he will be able to utilize the pitch fully will be something to track.
Dunning did throw a second curve that would rank as an average 12-6 curve, but it was nowhere near as effective. I’m basing my grade on a mid-grade between the two, but I could see the spike curve having double-plus ceiling if he’s allowed to truly cut loose with the pitch.
Changeup (50 present/55 future) - Dunning’s change is consistent, playing off his sinking fastball. But he relies tremendously on the location of the pitch, as he works in the mid-80s with the pitch. Not generating tremendous velocity separation nor does he get elite movement on the pitch. That all said, before his surgery, something Dunning did well, was locate his pitches. And when he was REALLY on, the change was a great indication of just how on he truly was.
The Pitcher
Certainly, Dane Dunning is built well (6’4”, 225) to be a mid-rotation starter. There is a lot of comparison to former Red Sox and Dodgers pitcher Derek Lowe, with his build and pitch mix leaning heavy on a sinker/slider mix. Dunning has a consistent, steady delivery, that really doesn’t hint at major future injury. Yet he is coming off Tommy John surgery, so that risk will remain because once it’s happened one time, the risk remains.
Dunning comes from a high 3/4 arm slot and works to get extension toward the plate. His pitch mix with the slider and spike curve really would indicate an inning-eater, mid-rotation type. Though Dunning excelled in the bullpen in college, he could be exceptional as a closer as well. But the White Sox will definitely handle him as a starter right now, working to build innings back onto his arm post-surgery.
Predictions
Many pitchers over time have discussed that the first year back after TJS, a pitcher regains his velocity, but his control and command is erratic. It’s in the second season back that command and control return. Dunning’s excellence comes both in the ability to create weak contact, and also to avoid additional baserunners, due to excellent control and command. He could see some struggles this season as he regains his command and control. But watching how much he is allowed to use his spike curve, and the effectiveness of that pitch, should give a good indication exactly how high the future ceiling truly can be for Dunning.
Fantasy Impact
Fantasy owners should be very interested in Dane Dunning based on his profile. A guy who has the profile of a mid-rotation, inning-eater guy, that has the ability to strike out hitters at a 27 percent clip, should be highly desired for any fantasy rotation.
However, consider benching the first go around. Watch for him to gain back his command and control before trusting him in your staff. Once he’s got that plus control back, Dunning could be a guy who is significantly more valuable to the fantasy community than he likely is within his own rotation, due to his ability to give quality ratio innings along with strikeouts.