How many times have we seen this: the Miami Marlins made a trade that features a well-paid veteran for multiple minimum-salary players. But wait, what’s this you say? The Marlins are the ones getting the win-now vet, parting ways with cheap, young talent to do it? Damn, 2020, you really are crazy.
The Deal: MIA receives OF Starling Marte from AZ for LHP Caleb Smith, RHP Humberto Mejía, & LHP Julio Frías
After beating Jacob deGrom Monday, Miami has a .500 record and is tied with Philly for second in the NL East. An expanded 16-team postseason means they’re in the playoff picture. 5-tool All-Star Starling Marte just became the best player on the team. The 31-year-old has bounced back from a 2017 PED suspension to bat .298 with 25 homers and 30 steals (in 38 tries) since the start of 2019 (165 games). Of true center fielders, only Trout, Acuña, Springer, and Ramon Laureano have a higher OPS than Marte’s .842 since ‘19. And he’s not just a rental; Miami has a team option for next year at a bargain $12.5 million.
Now, in evaluating Arizona’s haul, let’s leave one criticism at the door: “The Dbacks got less for Marte than they originally gave up for him!” Any good GM (or fantasy player) knows to avoid the “sunk cost fallacy.” Mike Hazen’s job is to improve his team however he can, regardless of the optics. (After “the sky is falling” backlash to Hazen’s Goldschmidt trade, 1B Christian Walker matched Goldy in ‘19 and the return of Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Andy Young, and Dominic Fletcher looks good). And of course Arizona receives less for Marte than they traded away for him! Best case scenario, Miami gets 192 games of him—30 this year + 162 next year. When AZ acquired Starling before COVID, they were getting a potential 324 games of production. Lastly, as bad as they’ve been—14-21 in 2020—the Dbacks are only 3.5 games out of a wild card berth. If they sneak into the playoffs, Marte’s 0.9 WAR will have helped keep them afloat.
So while Caleb Smith, rookie Humberto Mejía, and prospect Julio Frías aren’t as prized as RHP Brennan Malone, SS Liover Peguero, and $250k in international money—what AZ sent Pittsburgh this winter—they still boost the Diamondback staff. The 29-year-old Smith’s 4.39 ERA since 2018 doesn’t stand out, but his 259 strikeouts in 233 innings as a starter do. In fact, he excelled in his first 9 starts of ‘19 for a 2.38 ERA, .89 WHIP, and 12 K/9…but then hip inflammation sapped his velocity. His fastball ticked back up in his sole start this year before the Marlins’ COVID-19 outbreak. With a high-spin 4-seamer averaging 92.3 mph, a wipeout slider, and a good changeup, he can be a weapon for the Snakes’ rotation, which is now without the mercurial Robbie Ray (shipped to Toronto at the deadline).
Smith is worth much more than his $586,500 salary, and the DBacks control him for 3 more arbitration seasons. Humberto Mejía was our #22 prospect in Miami’s strong system, and AZ now controls him through 2026. The 23-year-old Panamanian excelled in A-Ball and High-A last year for a 2.09 ERA over 90 total innings, striking out 89 with a 0.90 WHIP. At 6-foot-4, 235 lbs, he’s a big strong kid with an easy delivery. He’s flashed back-end starter upside in the Majors this year, but below average command might make him a multi-inning reliever.
As you can see, Mejía’s above average curveball can be a backbreaker, and his mid-80s slider has serious downward movement. His 93 mph fastball jumps on hitters up in the zone and his inconsistent changeup does have good run. That said, too many meatballs have resulted in a 5.40 ERA and 1.90 WHIP in 10 innings (11 K). The spin rates on his pitches are surprisingly mediocre, but this is an intriguing arm.
The third pitcher headed to AZ is Julio Frías, a 22-year-old lefty who’s yet to debut in full-season ball. The 6-foot-2 Dominican has touched 97 with plus running action, but has poor command and fringy off-speed pitches. He impressed in 2019 with a 2.83 ERA over 14 starts at Low-A, backed by a 1.21 WHIP and 73 K in 70 innings.
Last year’s deadline deal between these teams—RHP Zac Gallen to Arizona for toolsy SS prospect Jazz Chisholm—was juicy, and so is this year’s. Marlins fans have to be thrilled to bring in an All-Star. Dbacks fans have a right to be bummed with their “Marte Parte” of Starling and Ketel ending after only 35 games, but they just might be surprised to see what Smith and Mejía can do.
Follow Jacob on Twitter @TheReelJZ
(Photo credit: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)