The San Diego Padres are going all in and last night they continued to stockpile pitchers by acquiring Joe Musgrove from the Pittsburgh Pirates. This ended up as a three-team deal that also includes the New York Mets and here is the trade in its entirety:
Padres get: Joe Musgrove
Mets get: Joey Lucchesi
Pirates get: Hudson Head, Omar Cruz, Drake Fellows, David Bednar, Endy Rodriguez
The 28-year-old Musgrove headlines the deal and, as a native of Southern California, he now gets to pitch for the team he grew up rooting for. He becomes the probable fourth or fifth starter for a Padres team that has added Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Mike Clevenger in the last six months.
Musgrove owns a career ERA of 4.33 but he was quietly one of the better pitchers in the National League in an abbreviated 2020 season. He posted 57 strikeouts in just 39.2 innings giving him a strikeout rate in the 90th-percentile. Despite his ugly 1-5 record, he recorded an ERA of just 3.86 in relying less on his fastball and using his curveball as an effective third pitch.
While he won’t wow you with velocity, he induces soft contact at an elite level (93rd-percentile in exit velocity) and he should be far more effective as a fourth starter. He also provides some insurance in the event that Dinelson Lamet’s health is a bigger issue than the club is publicly letting on. Musgrove is under contract until 2022 as well which fits what the Padres have done in acquiring talent for beyond the 2021 season.
The Mets’ acquisition of Lucchesi is banking that he regains the form he showed across his first two seasons in the big leagues. Primarily a sinkerball pitcher with one of the more unique windups in baseball, he struck out better than a batter per inning in 2018 and 2019. He also has a big, loopy curveball that he can effectively mix in:
Lucchesi should compete for a rotation spot with New York but could also be used as a long reliever or swingman role. With Steven Matz, Seth Lugo, and David Peterson competing for two rotation spots, Lucchesi has no shortage of competition.
The Pirates return in this deal is encouraging for a couple reasons.
The team has decided to go with a full tear-down which is a clear signal there is at least some semblance of a plan in Pittsburgh moving forward. On a roster that is devoid of any veterans with which to build around, the sensible move here is to make moves like this to bolster their system in an effort to compete 2-3 years from now.
Getting Hudson Head is the other reason for optimism. He injects some much-needed athleticism into a system that is top-heavy as far as position players go. A third-round pick in 2019, he slashed .283/.383/.417 in rookie ball with a home run and three stolen bases. He has shown strong bat-to-ball skills already and despite being just 19, the Padres liked Head enough to include him in their 60-man pool last summer. With a smooth lefty swing and good speed, there is plenty of reason to be excited:
With elite bat speed and a frame that should allow him to add muscle, Head could be a fast riser in the Pirates’ system. He’s got good speed and is already a strong defender meaning he should stick in centerfield which is a plus playing in PNC Park’s cavernous outfield. He’s unlikely to hit more than 20 homeruns at peak but the combination of tools makes Head a risk well worth taking on.
Cruz is an intriguing prospect whose minor league numbers have been terrific despite never pitching above Low-A. The 21-year old lefty has racked up 135 strikeouts across 98.1 innings, doing so without an overpowering fastball. At 6’0, 200 pounds, there isn’t much physical projection left and he needs to develop a third pitch but a 35.3 K% is something the Pirates new management team loves.
Drake Fellows was a sixth round pick out of Vanderbilt in 2019 and he has yet to pitch a professional inning, although he showed himself well while in college. At 6’5 and 214 pounds, he has a prototypical pitcher’s build and I think the best way to describe him would be sturdy. He throws out of an easy ¾ arm slot that is repeatable, primarily relying on a fastball that sits in the low-90s and a slider.
Fellows is another young arm the Pirates have acquired as part of their tear down and he profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter but might be best used in a reliever role.
David Bednar should compete for a spot in the Pirates bullpen and despite his ugly numbers at the Major League level, the sample size is small. The 26-year old righty relies on a fastball that sits in the upper 90s but his curveball is his best pitch and has already flashed plus.
Bednar is a fascinating player as he was drafted in the 35th round back in 2016 and he has managed to work his way to the big leagues. He is easily the least newsworthy player but is a guy the city of Pittsburgh will embrace.
Endy Rodriguez’s inclusion in the deal is essentially a straight up trade for Lucchesi as he is the only piece the Mets gave up. The 20-year old Rodriguez is officially listed as a catcher but he also plays in the outfield. As a switch-hitter, Rodriguez has displayed more power from the left side although he does make a lot of contact regardless of which side of the plate he is hitting from. The profile is more that of a contact-first hitter but at just 6’0, 170 pounds there is a lot of projection left with regards to his power.
The biggest question with Rodriguez at present is whether or not he can stick behind the plate. If he can, this deal looks a lot better for Pittsburgh given his athleticism and approach at the plate and it is curious to me as why the Mets would give him up.
Final Thoughts
The Padres did well in getting Musgrove who gives them another effective arm who should be on the list of pitchers to break out in 2021. In the event Lamet misses time or Chris Paddack can’t get untracked, Musgrove will slot in nicely behind Darvish and Snell. For Musgrove’s part, he goes from pitching for a team with below average defensive metrics and one of the worst lineups in baseball to the polar opposite in San Diego. It would come as no surprise if he enjoyed a career year and set himself up for a nice payday after the 2022 season.
The Pirates got a really nice return in what should be considered to best haul they’ve got in a trade so far this offseason. While they will be comically bad in 2021, having Joe Musgrove on their staff wasn’t going to do much to change that. We can get into the conversation of how small market teams operate and whether or not owners should be spending more money, but the Pirates have now clearly committed to tearing down the roster and playing for 2023. Their next move should be to find a suitor for Gregory Polanco and possibly even Jameson Taillon once he proves he’s healthy. In any event, there is some direction on the North Side and that is reason enough to be encouraged.
For the Mets, giving up Rodriguez to get Lucchesi when they have three pitchers who have similar profiles already competing for a rotation spot is somewhat odd. In my eyes, one of two scenarios presented itself to New York: Their advanced scouting reports on Lucchesi signal they believe he will outpitch his 2018-2019 seasons or they felt the need to push some chips in coming off the acquisition of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco. While Rodriguez isn’t a top-10 prospect in their system, he is hovering around the mid-teens with a ceiling that could push him much higher. This is a deal that may look bad for them in four or five years.