As the 2025 MLB Draft quickly approaches, the Prospects Live team wants to make your life as easy as possible. In this series of articles, I'll be providing team-by-team analysis of their recent draft trends, their available draft capital for 2025, any areas of the draft they've heavily targeted, as well as a few names in this year's class that might fit into their historically preferred archetype.
Max Ellingsen
This analysis isn't sourced for the upcoming year, nor is it a guarantee the organization won't pivot from what they've done in the past. Simply put, this article aims to provide an in-depth look at teams and their recent draft classes to try and decipher trends that could help uncover players your favorite team might be targeting. It's far from a perfect science, but I've done my job if it makes things easier to follow on draft day.
Houston Astros
- 2025 Bonus Pool Value - $7,181,500 (27th)
- Top 100 selections - 21, 95
Another year near the bottom for Houston. With the signing of Christian Walker this past offseason and no Comp picks to speak of, the Astros find themselves with just two top 100 selections this upcoming draft and the fourth smallest overall bonus pool. A system that’s lacked impact at the top for several years, Houston has perpetually found under the radar talent throughout the draft that’s allowed them to remain dominant in the AL for the better part of a decade. Perhaps it’s unlikely they add a blue chip prospect in July, but this is familiar territory for a Houston organization that is routinely strapped for draft resources.
2024 Draft Overview
In a draft with just one pick in the first hundred selections (they had pick 101), Houston did a remarkable job at putting together a really talented class despite their lack of draft capital. First rounder Walker Janek (slot) is a sound player behind the dish and has shown promise early in his professional career while second rounder Ryan Forcucci ($275,000 overslot) still has not made his debut due to TJ surgery yet possesses a remarkable fastball and considerable promise long term. They went a bit off the board in round four with Parker Smith ($91,000 underslot) to save some money, however fifth rounder Cole Hertzler (slot), sixth rounder Caden Powell ($118,000 overslot), and seventh rounder Joseph Sullivan (slot) have started their young careers quite well and look like potential mid round gems. Even 12th rounder Ryan Verdugo, another pitcher who has yet to debut due to injury, has plenty of promise and probably should have gone higher. Houston extracted a considerable amount of talent in the class without having to move much money around at all, a testament to their excellent scouting division.
2023 Draft Overview
Finally with a full slate of picks, the Astros selected Brice Matthews in round one ($400,000 underslot), a twitchy shortstop with major bat speed out of Nebraska. Following with a pair of college pitchers in Alonzo Tredwell ($200,000 overslot) and Jake Bloss ($178,000 underslot), they went overslot in the fifth with prep shortstop Chase Jaworsky ($490,000 overslot). Saving a considerable amount of money in subsequent rounds, Houston took two more prepsters in the 11th and 12th rounds with Nehomar Ochoa Jr. ($150,000 overslot) and Anthony Huezo ($250,000 overslot). It wasn’t necessarily the most loaded class for Houston, however they had a nice hit later in the draft with 14th rounder Jackson Nezuh (slot). Houston ultimately tried to move some money around and bet on upside in the prep class, however as of now, that bet hasn’t yet paid off.
2022 Draft Overview
The 2022 class supplied the Houston farm system with a healthy amount of prospect talent when it needed it most, priming them with some ammunition to make various deadline deals in the following years. First rounder Drew Gilbert ($120,000 underslot) and second round Jacob Melton ($100,000 underslot) were both high performing college outfielders and ultimately saved them some cash in the process, a trend we’ll continue to see in the first 10 rounds. Andrew Taylor and Trey Dombroski were the only slot value guys taken in this class, ultimately saving the Astros a large chunk of money to throw at 11th rounder Ryan Clifford ($1,110,000 overslot), a prep player who was largely considered a premium prospect in the class and a top 3-5 round talent. Despite their savings in the early rounds, they still netted some interesting arms like Michael Knorr ($104,000 underslot) and A.J. Blubaugh ($18,000 underslot). The biggest steal of this class, however, was 12th rounder Zach Dezenzo out of Ohio State, a player who’s amongst the organizations best prospects and figures to be a bigger factor at the big league level in the near future.
Early Round Demographics
There’s been a strong trend with college talent at the top of the draft, however the bats they’ve taken near the top have all been relatively “model friendly” with good batted ball numbers at premium defensive positions. They haven’t been scared to take some riskier college arms as well, with both Tredwell and Forcucci representing relatively raw and/or riskier investments based on polish and injury history. The top of Houston’s drafts haven’t yielded any true superstar talents as of late, but considering they are typically drafting later in the first round, I can’t say their strategy of relatively high floor bats is a bad one. Secure a performer you can bank on being a big leaguer and take shots later in the draft. It’s worked well thus far.
Late Round Demographics
Houston has gone for upside in the later rounds, selecting plenty of high schoolers and JC players in the past few years. With their habit of saving some money early, it’s made it easy to look for these higher upside guys that command more bonus pool allocation, however the success rate on these players is somewhat spotty. They’ve honestly had a higher hit rate with later round college guys like Dezenzo, Blubaugh, and Nezuh. They’re comfortable betting on tools/stuff and working out the kinks down the line. Whether that’s bat to ball, command, or positional questions, as long as they’ve got some sort of a carrying tool, Houston is interested.
Names to Know
Alex Lodise, FSU SS - A high riser this season, Lodise has worked his way into the first round conversation and could represent an option for Houston to save a bit of money early.
Gavin Kilen, Tennessee SS - Not sure if he’ll make it 21 at this rate, however if he did, I’d imagine he’d be the guy. He fits everything they’re about.
Ike Irish, Auburn C/OF - Irish has tremendous power in his bat that could see him selected far earlier than this, but he’s a bit of a tweener defensively which could theoretically push him down the board a bit. Perhaps Houston is able to pounce.
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