When you cover minor league prospects, one of the questions you hear most is: how long til this kid gets called up to the Bigs? There’s so much that goes into guesstimating the answer—how much development does this player need, how good are the players at his position on the Major League club, how well could he slot into another position, and so on. But for two of the brightest young stars in the game, Jo Adell and Royce Lewis, it’s not just that these 20 year olds have a chance to get the call this year; each has a chance to make an immediate impact, propelling his club into the postseason.
Jo Adell, Angels OF
We’ll start with Jo, who came in at #3 on our Prospects Live Top 100 list 2 weeks ago. Along with Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani the pitcher, the right-handed Adell is the biggest reason Angels fans should expect 2020 to be their first winning season in 5 years. Listed at 6’3”, 215 lbs but much more built than that now, the 20-year-old man child hits the ball harder than anyone in the Minors. One of my favorite memories in baseball was watching him take a home run derby style BP with fellow gigantic humans Brandon Marsh and Greg Deichmann this fall: while those 2 pummeled the ball in their own right, they couldn’t help but laugh as Adell proceeded to yank balls 30 and 40 feet farther than they had, as well as backspinning line drives so hard they went over the center field wall.
Since being drafted 9 picks after Lewis in 2017—#10 overall out of Louisville, KY—Adell has mashed so much that he made it up to the Triple-A Pacific Coast League this past season…where he was more than six years younger than the average player. It’s the only level he's struggled at so far (.676 OPS in 27 games), but he closed out 2019 with a quality Arizona Fall League (.273 AVG, 3 HR, .796 OPS in 111 PAs) and multiple homers for Team USA at the Premier12 Olympic qualifier. A lifetime .295 hitter with a .360 OBP and .870 OPS, Adell hammers line drives up the middle and to the pull side, and is very comfortable letting the ball travel and sending it over the right field fence: his spray chart, courtesy of Prospects Live’s Minor Graphs tool, shows 5 career homers of more than 400 feet that landed right of center field, as well as 8 more homers to true right field.
And when he gets out in front of a ball, the Kentucky Kid uncorks absolute BOMBS like this majestic beaut off Astros’ ace Forrest Whitley in October:
The main area for improvement is Adell’s timing with his leg kick. It looks great when he squares a ball up over the left field wall, but I’ve seen several instances of him not getting his foot down on time, which breaks down his swing and makes for some ugly whiffs—hence strikeouts in 25% of his career PAs. I wonder how much he even needs a big leg kick given he’s stronger and twitchier than almost any player in the world, but even if he sticks with it, at age 20 he obviously has TONS of time to develop.
At full stride, Adell has elite speed, though it takes him longer to go 0 to 60 than it does a nimble Andrés Giménez type. Jo has filled out his broad frame and will continue to bulk up from age 20 to 25. That’s not a knock: his size, combined with his hitting ability, is what makes him so promising. I just see him being more “good baserunner, long strides in right field” than “30+ steals center fielder with super-quick first step.” While some say he has a cannon, his arm looked average this fall and he even 3-hopped a throw from short right field.
Outlook for 2020: had the Angels acquired Joc Pederson (and Ross Stripling) in the since-nixed deal with the Dodgers, Adell would be in the “one injury away” from making the Show category. Instead, Mike Trout’s current outfield mates are Justin Upton, who missed nearly 3 months with turf toe last year then was shut down in September with patellar tendinitis, and Brian Goodwin. It’s hard to pencil the 32-year-old Upton in for 150 games coming off just 63, and while Goodwin had a career year batting .262 with 17 homers and a .796 OPS in 136 games (his first time, at age 28, playing everyday), switching him out for Adell is a no-brainer once Jo proves he can bring the thunder against Triple-A pitching. The time is now for GM Billy Eppler to steer his team into the postseason, and it’s likelier than not he’ll turn to his #1 prospect to accomplish that goal. While Big League pitchers will take advantage of any remaining timing issues, with the juiced ball and in-division bandboxes in Houston and Arlington, Adell has a chance to flex his jaw-dropping power and fuel an Angels playoff berth.
Report Card: 65 Future Value – Hit 40/55, Raw Power 70+, Game Power 50/70, RF Defense 50/55, Arm 50, Speed 65/60
P.S. if you haven’t seen Jo jump, take a look at this.
Royce Lewis, Twins SS/CF/3B
For all the superlatives I just dropped on Adell, I like future franchise player Royce Lewis even more. The #1 overall pick in 2017, Lewis is a special player. Still 20 until June, the right-handed batsmen truly impacts the game in every way: he’s stolen 50 bases the past 2 seasons (to 18 CS), is at least + in hitting and power, and can legitimately play anywhere except (probably) catcher. As important, he is the consummate professional in the mold of a Derek Jeter or David Wright. We’re talking about a guy who knows the names of every grounds crew member at his home park in the Fall League (which is only a five and a half week season) and gives them fist bumps each day during BP. I had the pleasure of interviewing Royce after friendly interactions earlier in the AFL—watch just a few minutes and you begin to believe that this is someone who is going to do everything it takes to get the most out of his ability.
The industry is certainly high on Lewis—he came in at #12 on our Top 100 and #9 on MLB Pipeline’s. But I can’t help but think that his uninspiring .661 OPS between High-A and Double-A last year has caused unwarranted caution. Watching him in person, he showed me everything I wanted to see at the plate: a clean, fluid swing; great timing with his pronounced leg kick to maximize his power; and top notch pitch recognition.
After 127 games in Fort Myers and Pensacola, one might have expected Royce to look sluggish during October baseball in AZ. Instead, he played like someone who simply loves this game, believes he’s the best, and is dead set on defeating his opponent. I caught a week’s worth of his games and never saw him take an At Bat off or run the bases with less than 100% intensity…and oh by the way, he hit .352 with 4 homers, 9 doubles, 5 steals, 22 RBI, and a 1.012 OPS over 23 games to win both Fall Stars Game and Fall League MVP. Awards are sometimes clouded by which player has the most hype as opposed to who actually produced the most, but this past October, Lewis really was the best player in minor league baseball’s showcase league.
Defensively, Lewis was more than competent debuting at third base and centerfield in the AFL, and I was most impressed in person to see him excel at second base in just his 2nd professional game there. He’s an elite athlete with well above average speed, and since his is a lean kind of strength (6’2”, he’s gotten up to 205 lbs this spring), he can stick at shortstop for years to come. Alternatively, he can be above average at 2nd or 3rd or even hold his own in center.
2020 Outlook: Lewis’ road to the Show isn’t as straightforward as Adell’s this year, as there’s no bouncing a healthy Josh Donaldson or Jorge Polanco from the left side of the infield. But while 23-year-old 2B Luis Arraez opened eyes with a .334 AVG and .838 OPS in 92 games last season, he’s hit a grand total of 10 homers in 551 professional games. If Lewis shines in Double-A and/or Triple-A, he’s the higher upside option at 2nd, and his strong showing at centerfield makes him the best backup option to Byron Buxton, who’s only played 115 games the past 2 seasons. If I were the Twins, I’d be licking my lips thinking about a midseason callup in which Royce plays multiple positions, impacts games on the basepaths, and makes the lineup as good as almost anyone’s come October.
Report Card: 65 FV – Hit 45/60, Raw Power 60/65, Game Power 40/60, SS & CF Defense 45/50, 3B & 2B Defense 50/55, Arm 55, Speed 65/60
(For you spray chart junkies out there, you can see that Lewis pulls most of his homers while still showing off that big boy 400+ ft pop thrice to center and once to right field).
Follow Jacob on Twitter @TheReelJZ