LHP Daniel Lynch, Kansas City Royals
Date observed: May 19, 2021
Seen and written by Jake Kerns
Daniel Lynch entered the 2021 season having never pitched above High-A. He debuted in the big leagues on May 3, proceeded to give up 14 earned runs in 8 innings spanning 3 starts, and was demoted to Omaha in the middle of May. The game I attended on May 19 was his Triple-A debut. Following the opener, his final line was 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. He took the loss against the Iowa Cubs.
Lynch is a tall and lanky prospect, someone I’d physically comp to my former Mizzou classmate and veteran big leaguer, Kyle Gibson. There’s plenty of room to fill out on his frame, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he remains skinny into his 30s in the same way Gibson has. It’s that kind of body type. Lynch’s length allows him to get good extension off the mound, which in theory should make his velocity play up, but I didn’t find that to be the case.
I’d never seen Lynch pitch live and wanted to pay close attention to how his outing compared to our offseason report, particularly because of how hard he got hit in his major league debut. He worked almost exclusively from the windup, with a long, left-handed 3/4 delivery. His early major league pitch mix indicates he’s been using a classic combination of fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. The slider takes two shapes: a traditional sweeping slider and a firmer variation that mimics a cutter, as referenced by Joe Drake in his offseason report. I did not catch a single curveball in the 77-80 range that is notated on his report or in his major league data. He’d only thrown it about 2% of the time while in the bigs, and it was his hardest-hit pitch.
Lynch’s fastball sat 94-96 throughout the game, topping out at 97 in the second inning (his first inning in the game as a follower) and dipping to 92 in the eighth inning. It’s plus velocity from the left side, but the pitch played below that due to its lack of movement - it was pretty flat all afternoon - and batters more often than not made contact with the pitch when it was in the zone. One particular instance is when he ran it inside against Sergio Alcantara, who was able to easily turn on it and smoke it into the left field suites. The pitch plays at its best when he runs it away from righties or elevates it out of the zone. He did the latter on a couple occasions, and the batters were both well-behind the pitch. Batters predictably make contact when he leaves it down the middle of the plate. He needs to work the corners better.
As noted above, Lynch shows two variations of his slider. The first, and more regularly thrown, sat 83-86 with sweeping action. The pitch showed a tendency to get slurvey, particularly when using it away from right handed hitters. Of the pitches thrown, the sweeping slider was by far the pitch he located the best, and he also generated the highest % of swinging strikes off the pitch. One cause for concern was its tendency to hang up in the zone. It didn’t kill him, but several were what I’d classify as could-be meatballs. It’s a plus pitch at its best, but there are some flyball concerns there.
The second iteration of his slider, if we’re calling it that, sat 86-88, but was poorly located all afternoon and regularly buried in the dirt - and not because he was trying to get batters to chase. The pitch itself offers a nice change of velocity between his mid-90s fastball and low-to-mid changeup and slider, and it was actually his second-most-used pitch in strikeout situations. He recorded one strikeout with it in the dirt, a pitch he again missed his spot with. Joe Drake’s offseason report and my look in this game are the only passing reference to what might be a cutter I’ve found, but the pitch was used infrequently and with so little ineffectiveness, minus his one strikeout, that I’m not particularly surprised. It’s a below-average pitch with some potential if he begins to locate it. It’s on my watchlist for the rest of the season. Maybe he’ll follow recent trends and show his grips in a Pitching Ninja video.
Lynch’s changeup sat 85-87 throughout the day, which is harder than he’s traditionally thrown it. He kept it around the zone all afternoon and used it to a 33% swinging strike rate. The pitch shows a good amount of fade and even some sidearm run, and he likes to use it down and away from righties. Only one changeup was put into play and that was a groundball single that scored a run in the eighth after his control collapsed. It’s an above-average pitch when he’s locating it.
Although Lynch was around the zone throughout his start, his command was spotty as he too often missed his target. On about a half dozen occasions, the catcher set up low and in on a right hander, and Lynch missed over the heart of the plate. My notes indicate all of those pitches were fouled off, but leaving a 95 MPH fastball down the pipe at the major league level is a recipe for disaster.
Despite his command issues, Lynch looked in control for most of the game. He only struggled when he stopped throwing strikes, something he particularly fell victim to in the eighth inning as he battled fatigue. Two of his baserunners came in without him recording an out, and he was ultimately saddled with the loss. In watching his start, most everything seemed consistent with our offseason report and his miniscule sample of MLB data.
The Royals have worked to increase his fastball usage, which in turn unlocked extra velocity, but he’s not blowing it by hitters on many occasions and needs to use it more on the outer half of the plate. He has three above-average or better pitches and can throw them all for strikes, but without better command, I only have him pegged as a relatively safe backend starter. There’s understandably additional upside, and he should be back up in Kansas City this summer.