With almost two months in the books, James Chipman drops notes on some of Detroit’s Low-A prospects. Part one will feature position players; pitchers will follow in a later piece.
OF Kingston Liniak
Detroit took California prep outfielder Kingston Liniak in the fourth round of the 2018 draft. Kingston has bloodlines: his father Justin and uncle Cole were both MLB draftees. The toolsy outfielder’s defense, arm and speed have always anchored the profile. Struggles at the plate have kept him lower on the board.
This season Liniak is noticeably 20-30 pounds stronger. He’s also more confident and relaxed at the plate. There’s been a swing overhaul — a shorter more direct bat path, improved strength and better bat speed have yielded louder contact. In the past Liniak played within his game and looked to simply slap/spray the ball around the yard. He’s not selling out for power, but there’s noticeably more of a damage oriented approach now. For context, Liniak had just two career home-runs over 576 career at-bats; he’s already hit six this season. The power is predominantly pull-side but he’s shown the ability to go yard to deep-CF in-game and drive the ball to the opposite field in BP. The hit and power were damn near bottom-of-the-scale when I last observed Liniak in 2019 — both have vastly improved.
I’m not sure why, but Liniak has always performed for me during my live looks. His pro debut in GCL was a multi-hit game that included the walk-off winner. This season's live looks have included loud home-runs, spectacular defensive plays, that he makes look routine and a walk-off winner in late-May. Oftentimes narratives are filled with unnecessary cliches but Liniak is a ball player. He has a high baseball IQ and he plays the game hard. The defense and arm are still above-average and Liniak still runs like a deer. Liniak isn’t out of the woods yet, he will have to continue to hit at each level but the secondaries are so strong I believe he could carve out a big league role with even modest production at the plate. It’s still a high risk — role 30 emergency/depth profile, but it’s “arrow up” as Liniak has made a ton of progress this season.
2B Alvaro Gonzalez
Detroit inked Alvaro Gonzalez for $1 million during the 2017 international signing period. Gonzalez logged just 40 games during an injury shortened ‘19 GCL campaign and last season’s pandemic didn’t do his development any favors either. Promotions and injuries this season cleared the way for Gonzalez to finally make his Low-A debut for Lakeland earlier this month.
Gonzalez is hitterish at the plate, with good bat-to-ball skills and a short compact stroke. He’s quick to and through the ball and there’s solid pitch recognition and plate coverage. Gonzalez has shown the ability to handle velocity and stay back and drive spin to the opposite field. He’s pesky, showing the ability to work deep counts and grind out at-bats, running up pitch counts. There’s peaks and valleys in the box score but Gonzalez has displayed the raw ingredients of a potential above-average hitter.
After splitting time between shortstop, third-base and second-base in ‘19 GCL, Gonzalez has exclusively seen time at second this season. Over my looks Gonzalez has looked confident, smooth and polished. He has a quick first step, shows good footwork and he covers plenty of ground. Unfortunately you don’t get to see him show off his plus arm strength much at second-base. I’d wager he’s likely moved back to shortstop once Gage Workman is promoted.
Gonzalez is a fringe-average straight line runner but his instincts and base-running ability push the grade closer to solid average. Unfortunately the blemish in the profile is that there’s just modest raw power. Gonzalez’s linear bat path is more so geared to spray line drives. He’s not likely to hit many homers but Gonzalez should rack up a fair amount of extra-base hits if his hit tool reaches its projection.
Overall there’s a lot to like about the profile. There's a natural feel for the game, a high baseball IQ and a raw but projectable hit tool. The secondary tools are solid but without much power, 35 OFP with a glimmer of role 40 utility upside feels accurate. Gonzalez will be one for Tigers fans to closely monitor this summer.
SS Gage Workman
Gage Workman surprisingly fell to Detroit in the fourth round of the 2020 draft. A switch hitter, Workman split time between third-base and shortstop at Arizona State.
Workman looks every bit of his 6’ 3” 202 pound list — he’s broad shouldered, chiseled and athletic. His sheer size makes him look a little out of place at shortstop; it’s a solid build for third-base, where most project him to eventually end up. Workman is a better runner than I expected. He’s routinely solid average down the line and his speed plays up significantly on the basepaths. Workman is an aggressive but smart base-runner that’s already 20-for-22 in stolen bases this season. Yes the Low-A step off rule has padded league stats but regardless, Workman moves better than expected on the basepaths.
Workman has had success at the plate this season. He hit for the cycle in May and he’s hitting .252 with a .780 OPS, thanks largely in part to his impressive 14.2% BB%. He’s noticeably more comfortable from the left side where he’s hitting .288.
Workman has an open and fairly upright stance with a quick trigger. There’s above-average bat speed and a fair amount of loft in his swing. There’s plus raw that plays closer to above-average in game. Workman has gone deep three times, but his 11 doubles and three triples are a better representation of what fans should expect: a potential extra-base machine that drives the gaps. Billed as an overly aggressive hitter, Workman has looked fairly patient over my live looks. He works counts deep and rarely throws away at-bats. Workman is at his best when he stays in good hitter’s counts and looks to drive the ball to the gaps. He will need to cut down on some of the swing and miss in the zone, but it’s a far more polished hit tool than I expected to see. A fringe-average hit tool with above-average power feels right and I could be selling him short here.
Widely viewed as a plus defender, Workman has shown fringy to average defense with an above-average arm at shortstop this season. There’s decent range and he’s sure handed with routine plays. His footwork is inconsistent: occasionally choppy; transfers and turns are solid though. Surprisingly he’s gotten eaten up by a ton of line drives; which could be something to monitor. He’s likely moved to third-base anyways, where the defense plays closer to above-average mitigating some of those moderate concerns.
The most likely outcome here is a platoon or bench bat, but I’m bullish and I see the hit tool developing enough to yield a 45 OFP, second-division regular.
3B Nick Quintana
A second round selection in the 2019 draft, Nick Quintana has missed time this season due to a lingering wrist injury. He’s an emotional player, it’s not uncommon to see a helmet toss or woes at the plate carried into the field and vice versa. Quintana’s undersized 5’ 10” 180 pound frame is reminiscent of former Tigers’ third-baseman Brandon Inge.
My live looks haven’t been promising this season. I can’t help but wonder how much of a factor Quintana’s lingering wrist issue has played into this year’s slow start. The batting practice noticeably isn’t as loud and in-game pop has been almost non-existent over my live looks. There’s been a lot of three and four pitch at-bats that end in strikeouts. He’ll disappear in the lineup from time to time. The 23-year-old is hitting just .134 with seven extra-base hits over 112 at-bats this season. On a positive note, Quintana’s 17.3% walk rate is encouraging.
At the plate Quintana has an aggressive approach. Quintana has a grooved swing; there’s a ton of swing-and-miss in the zone, he struggles mightily with average or better secondaries and elevated velo. He’s a good mistake hitter that has feasted on some poorly located fringe-average fastballs. He hit an opposite-field tank off Yankees prospect Randy Vasquez that oddly bounced back into the stadium and was wrongfully ruled a double in early June. Aside from that there hasn’t been much power flexed over my dozen and a half live looks this year.
Quintana has shown average defense with an average arm at third-base this season. There’s been a few errant throws, but overall he’s looked better than his ‘19 debut. He’s not a base clogger but Quintana is definitely a below-average runner. The profile doesn’t have the upside a typical second round selection has. That being said, I want to see what he can do when he’s 100% healthy. If Quintana can hit, and hit for power like he did at Arizona, I suppose there’s solid role 40 upside — until we see it flash, Quintana is essentially a 35 OFP lotto ticket.
OF Jose De La Cruz
A high priority sign, the Tigers inked outfielder Jose De La Cruz for $1.8 million during the 2018 international signing period. The Dominican Republic native cruised through his first season of pro ball in 2019’s DSL showing power, speed and defensive prowess. An aggressive assignment stateside in Low-A this season hasn’t been as kind — De La Cruz is hitting just .108 with an alarming 68 strikeouts over 130 at-bats.
Already 6’ 216 pounds, the 19-year-old has the perfect blend of size, athleticism and raw tools. The word raw reigns though as we dive into the attributes and deficiencies of DLC’s profile. On a positive note, batting practice is loud. The easy plus raw power shines, yielding towering drives. Unfortunately contact issues have limited him to just three extra-base hits this season. De La Cruz punishes fastballs but the hit tool is currently bottom-of-the-scale because of his inability to handle spin. Breaking balls are his kryptonite and teams in the know feed him an exclusive diet of curveballs and sliders. It’s literally a Pedro Cerrano situation. Overcoming this allergy to off-speed and the further development of DLC’s hit tool is critical if he wishes to reach his lofty impact ceiling and not wash in A-ball.
De La Cruz is raw defensively as well. The reads and routes are occasionally adventurous but to his credit, DLC shows better closing speeds than I expected to see given his size and fringe-average foot speed down the line. His plus arm has gunned down aggressive base-runners on multiple occasions over my live looks. Unfortunately I’ve also seen the game seem to speed up a bit — missing the cutoff man and airmailing throws with just moderate difficulty. Overall he shows the raw ingredients of a potential average defender with a plus arm — he just lacks consistency and polish.
This narrative isn’t meant to read so critical or pessimistic — the profile is just way more of a project than I anticipated. A huge gap between what is and what could be, De La Cruz has extreme risk but perhaps one of the higher ceilings of lower level position players in Detroit’s farm system. Look for DLC to move to the backfields once GCL begins — a more age appropriate assignment that could get him back on track.
C Sam McMillan
Sam McMillan was an over-slot $1 million prep sign in the 5th round of the 2017 draft. The profile’s main deficiency has always been McMillan’s lack of production at the plate. For context, McMillan has a .220 average and .670 OPS over 567 career at-bats. To his credit, McMillan has posted an elite walk rate of 14.2% over his 4 year pro career. A logjam of higher priority catchers has the 22-year-old backstop back in A-ball for the third straight season, where he’s hitting a paltry .150 with a .448 OPS.
McMillan has below-average bat speed and a long rotational swing. He struggles with above-average or better velo and average or better secondaries. There’s swing and miss in the zone, he also struggles with elevated velo and chase secondary located away. Overall it’s well below-average hit and power. While you can’t exactly scoff at McMillan’s defensive prowess — his glove and arm are both solid average — the defense simply pales in comparison to other backstops in Detroit’s system. He handles his staff well, moves well laterally, is a decent blocker and good receiver.
McMillan has yet to escape A-ball and he’s Rule V eligible this December. His bat is a liability and although his work behind the dish is solid, it lacks the necessary impact of a true big league backup. That being said, McMillan is a solid role-20 org soldier.