Okay, we’re not REALLY that harsh around here, but there are some definite things that could have been done differently.
In each draft, there are would-a, could-a, should-a moves for each team. How many teams a decade ago would have liked to swap out their first-round selection for Jacob deGrom, who was selected in the ninth round in the 2010 draft and has produced more WAR in his career than all but Chris Sale (and perhaps Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, depending on the version of WAR that you use)?
This year's unique draft produced many unique strategies. Some were understandable. Some were…less so. In any case, these are some of the picks where teams swung and missed. We'll go in draft order.
Detroit Tigers
Tiger fans, you're used to hearing a rip or two (or more) on your club. But seriously, this is one of the best-done drafts of the year. Torkelson was a slam dunk. The Tigers could have some wondering about only selecting one high school player, but the quality of the collegiate players selected was such that those concerns should be quickly swept away.
Baltimore Orioles
The goal was to get top high school talent, and I'm a big fan of both Coby Mayo and Carter Baumler. But Heston Kjerstad seems like a guy that the Orioles have 3-4 guys who are very similar already in the system. To make him the #2 overall selection, even in an under slot deal really takes a large amount of trust that he's going to be more than many feel his ceiling truly is - which is back to old-school Duquette-style Orioles player mold.
The Orioles would have been much better suited to start their draft off with an under slot prep pick. With a lack of a true ace in their system, the Orioles had that opportunity staring them straight in the face with Mick Abel available for likely approximately half the $7.79 million slot value. The Phillies did pick Abel, and their slot for him is just $3.89 million without a second-round pick to buoy that slot up, so one has to think that $3.75-$4 million from the Orioles could have gotten it done, and for my money, there's not a pitcher more likely to be a future ace in the 2020 draft than Abel.
Miami Marlins
An all-pitcher draft could leave some less than thrilled, especially with just one of those arms being a prep arm, and a currently-recovering TJS arm at that. However, the Marlins got tremendous value throughout their draft, and their pitching development system has been lauded of late for its ability to maximize arms, so this could end up being a very productive haul for the club. The biggest thing to watch will be how each of the college arms is placed in the system to get them proper development time!
Kansas City Royals
Speculation about who the Royals would take had been rampant leading up to the draft, but the Royals have clearly felt that they can find offense in the MLB free-agent market to fill development holes, and want to develop a wealth of pitching. They continued this by selecting Lacy, who has potential ace stuff, Arguably the best changeup in the entire draft, in prep arm Ben Hernandez, and two excellent college arms late. Loftin was a late riser that made sense as a gamble. But with plenty of power in this class, it was surprising that a system lacking in power bats didn’t bring in at least one big-power bat. (Writer’s note: since the draft, the Royals have added a couple of notable power bats in the undrafted free agent market.)
Toronto Blue Jays
Having Austin Martin fall in your lap does alter plans significantly, but the Blue Jays seemed to roll with the punches very well. I’m a bigger fan of CJ Van Eyk than most, though I also acknowledge he’s likely a 3/4 starter ceiling. I just think he’s got a high probability to hit that and hit it soon. Nick Frasso could have significant bullpen risk, but he also could be elite from the bullpen, so it should probably be notated more as “risk” than anything negative. A prep player somewhere along the way would have looked nice in this draft, but with Martin up top, the bonus money to pull in a prep player may simply not have been there.
Seattle Mariners
Mariners fans will debate the move for years to come, especially if Emerson Hancock doesn’t work out. With all signs pointing to Nick Gonzales being the favorite of the club, they zigged when everyone expected an Aggie. The team also seemed to put a ton into that selection as each of their picks from that point forward was selected notably ahead of where he was ranked on the MLB Pipeline rankings. If Hancock turns into a future ace, this move looks brilliant, but it’s certainly basing a lot on one arm.
Pittsburgh Pirates
After plenty of debate over who would be left on the board for the Pirates, seemingly the perfect situation for Ben Cherington and his new crew with the Bucs system, fell right into his lap in the first two rounds as Nick Gonzales and Carmen Mlodzinski are both players that should work well in an analytically-driven system, as Cherington has been quoted that he’d like to implement. However, as much as I love Jared Jones’ arm, the Pirates seemed to sacrifice much of the rest of their draft in order to select him in the second round. And he’s a pitcher that needs quality development. I really, really hope the Pirates have that development in place, as the previous regime left things in tough, tough shape. The system also is badly in need of more quality hitters throughout, and Gonzales was the only hitter drafted.
San Diego Padres
A.J. Preller had to have been on the virtual draft wearing a t-shirt that said, “I’m better at this than you are” throughout the entire thing. Hassell was a pick that seemed tied to the club for weeks, if not months, ahead of the draft. Adding Lange, Caissie, and Wilcox as well gave the Padres four top-101 players from Prospects Live’s predraft ranks in their draft class, with three of those from the top 56 of the rankings. One question on many minds was the catching depth in the organization behind the very top of the system, which wasn’t addressed in one of the deepest catching drafts in recent memory, but it’s really hard to find fault in this draft overall.
Colorado Rockies
As day 1 ended, the selections of Zac Veen and Drew Romo could not have been better selections overall for the Rockies. I admit some fear for both players, that their development could be skewed in the Rockies system. But those are two of the top prep talents at their positions, so it was assumed that the rest of the draft would be primarily college pitching. However, it was the type of college pitchers that the Rockies grabbed that confused. After seeing some success for pitchers like Jon Gray and German Marquez with 95+ MPH average fastballs and heavy usage of slider and curve with minimal change use, they selected two college pitchers who live below that velocity threshold, and/or are known more for elite changeups. With pitchers on the board that could have potentially fit the mold that has shown to have some level of success in Colorado, both selections were odd, to say the least.
Los Angeles Angels
A team needing an arm that can be developed quickly could not have asked for a better arm to fall in their lap than Detmers, who may be the quickest to a major league rotation of any college arm in the first round this year. The team had just four selections, but they did make two strong prep bat selections in the third and fourth. The one thing to change there would potentially be adding a prep arm rather than one of those prep bats, though I’m personally a big fan of the match of Calabrese and the Angels system. There may be a lot of outfielders in that system, but he has a unique skillset that gives him a high likelihood of a major league career when compared to the high-athleticism, needs polish profiles of some of the more recent outfield draftees of the club.
Chicago White Sox
While Garrett Crochet is certainly exciting, he also brings plenty of risk. However, the interesting part is that many of the same arguments against Crochet were also once said about Chris Sale when drafted by the same organization. It was interesting that a system in need of a strong bat, came out of the draft with exactly zero bats. Of course, bringing home both Crochet and second-round selection Jared Kelley could eat up the majority of the White Sox bonus pool, so the bat options of any impact after those two selections would have been slim.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have used their farm system in trades recently to acquire a number of players, and the remaining system is very light with corner infielders and catching. The Reds did address one of those with prep catcher Jackson Miller in the competitive balance B round. However, as impressive as Austin Hendrick’s bat is, the opportunity to grab Ed Howard in that same spot, or forego Christian Roa in the second round to grab any number of a host of college middle infielders available, would have made much more sense in this draft class.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants just had their long-time ace sign elsewhere this past offseason. Perhaps if they had played games without a true ace leading the rotation, they could have understood that value, and jumped at the chance to develop their next one with Mick Abel on the board and (reasonably) local. Instead, they drafted a catcher that many feel is best suited not to play catcher down the road. After drafting an elite catcher with the second overall pick two years ago, it’s a confusing selection. The rest of the draft was tremendously well-done, as Farhan Zaidi has really shown his lessons from the Dodgers organization in structuring the organization’s farm system since taking over the club.
Texas Rangers
An entire article could be written on the Rangers confusing draft. Foscue is a perfectly fine player that is safe and could someday be an average second baseman. Projecting a big league career for any of the rest of this draft class is tough. It is an entirely prep class after Foscue, but no one was really an overslot guy, so there should have been available money to draft and sign more impressive talent somewhere along the way, including with the first pick of their draft. This was simply a weird draft from top to bottom.
Philadelphia Phillies
Okay, first pick was golden. We’ll get that out of the way immediately. Abel was one of my favorite players in the entire draft, so to get him at 15th overall was a great selection. I’m not sure about the match of player and organization, but they didn’t mess up Aaron Nola along the way, and I see Abel as similarly ready with minimal work to do as a pitcher, more just needing to get innings on his arm in the system. From there, the team has been widely lauded for their selection of Casey Martin in the third round as many feel he’s a high-level talent, but one scout told me that Martin was not on their draft board, “not even as a $20K undrafted free agent.” There are big concerns with non-baseball stuff with Martin, and for a team that recently had such a public issue with a high-profile player like the Phillies had with Odubel Herrera, that would have seemed like a pick to avoid. Time will tell, I guess.
Chicago Cubs
While it’s tough to argue against grabbing the top prep shortstop in the class, if there’s one position area that the Cubs are truly deep in system-wide, it’s middle infield, along with two young starters up the middle in Javy Baez and Nico Hoerner. The depth in the outfield is certainly lacking and the team is always in need of pitching, both of which were on the board at this selection. While 10 years from now, Howard may be the best player of any option available here, the Cubs may be burning a potential present window to compete in order to make this selection, rather than a fast-moving collegiate outfielder or arm. They did pick up two of the more high-velocity arms in the draft in later picks, but a potential rotation arm would have been a nice pickup here.
Boston Red Sox
Nick Yorke made a meme out of one of Prospect Live’s staff members on draft night, and there could be an argument that the team really didn’t do enough to warrant the underslot selection of Yorke. Blaze Jordan seems an odd choice for the Red Sox system that is so flush with corner infield types that they’re moving Michael Chavis to second base just to get his bat in the lineup. If that’s what the money saving was for, it was certainly ill-conceived. A system in need of a productive arm could have benefitted from a gamble on a pitcher like Carson Montgomery, Cam Brown, or Victor Mederos (with the understanding that those guys exactly may not have been signable, but players in that vein)..
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have been notable for excellent drafting lately, especially with arms. The team has focused on finding arms in the draft primarily, but they’ve tended to lock onto one elite bat per draft class. Instead of getting a big bat early, they grabbed one of the more impressive frames among all prep hitters in 6’5” power-hitting corner infielder A.J. Vukovich from Wisconsin. If there was one thing they may have done differently, it could have been seeking that bat earlier in the draft, but Vukovich could certainly be plenty of bat for this group.
New York Mets
If there was a more ideal fit than Pete Crow-Armstrong and the Mets in this draft, I’m not sure what it was. To come away with potentially the best overall raw prep hitter in the draft in Isaiah Greene as well was a coup for the Mets. I like J.T. Ginn to a degree, but with the low bonus signed by two of the later Mets picks already indicates to me that Ginn may be paid well beyond my own valuation, and at that point, there are a lot of guys who won’t be missing much of the 2021 season that could have been a selection at this spot.
Milwaukee Brewers
While other teams ahead of them may have had a greater need for Mitchell, it’s hard to match a player and team better than the Brewers and Garrett Mitchell. His upside comparisons from many remind me of the numbers that Carlos Gomez put up in his best years in Milwaukee (6 fWAR, .285/.345/.480 with mid-20s HR and mid-30s SB). That’s an absolute fantasy monster. From that point, I’ll admit that I’m astounded that not one pitcher was called by the Brew Crew. There’s perhaps not an organization that needs strong arms more, and there’s not been a draft in many years to have such depth in quality college arms, yet the Brewers did not make one selection of a college pitcher. It’s baffling.
St. Louis Cardinals
When certain players began to fall in the first round, there were guys that just made sense as future Cardinals. About the last one that anyone would have predicted was Jordan Walker. The Cardinals develop a number of things well, but a guy who needs to work on patience and selectivity at the plate is not something that seems to do well within the St. Louis development track. On top of that, with multiple other similar corner infielders already in the system (Nolan Gorman, Elehuris Montero, Malcom Nunez, even Juan Yepez), there were better places to spend draft resources. To their credit, the Cardinals picked two of the best young arms that were available at each of their next two draft slots. How Walker develops will be a big part of how this draft ends up viewed long term for St. Louis, and it will be a unique thing for the organization for him to develop well.
Washington Nationals
The Nationals nailed two early college arms that should move quickly in their system and then their fifth-round selection was one of my favorite JuCo arms that could move quick as a reliever or develop as a lengthy lefty starter with a two-pitch dominant repertoire. That alone would be a good class, but after graduating Juan Soto and Victor Robles the last two years and likely graduating Carter Kieboom when baseball resumes, the organization is in serious need of some bat talent, and this draft definitely fell shy of providing that.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians tend to target young prep players and particular profiles in college arms in their drafting, and they stuck to that mold strongly in this draft class. Overall, this is a loaded class in talent with a chance to really produce some top-end talent down the road. The only potential criticism would be if the team felt a collegiate infielder could have moved through their system quickly, perhaps that would have been a better choice in the first few rounds as the potential to lose Francisco Lindor looms great over this franchise currently. That said, you cannot easily draft a Lindor, especially at the 23rd draft slot, so this is an excellent class.
Tampa Bay Rays
Those of us watching Nick Bitsko fall all collectively smacked our foreheads when the Rays called his name. It was a perfect fit for the young arm who should develop very well in the Rays system. In all, the Rays did very well grabbing quality at draft slots along the way, though the major knock was a notable lack of catching depth drafted in a draft rich with available catching seemingly perfect for their system.
Atlanta Braves
With one of the smallest bonus pools, the Braves weren’t going to go crazy, but the idea that they would go big for a prep arm became a very loud secret going into draft night. When the Rays grabbed Bitsko just ahead of them, the Braves threw that plan out the window, and instead went for an all-college grouping. Even with all of their picks coming from the college ranks, the Braves did end up with a very high level of risk from their picks. If anything, the Braves could have used their fourth- or fifth-round picks to find one safe selection instead of picking two potentially elite arms that also both have significant risk built into their profile.
Oakland Athletics
The A’s had been tied to so many college arms and middle infielders that the idea of Soderstrom landing in their laps was not even part of the plan for most, but it was a perfect landing spot! From there, the A’s picked primarily pitching, but oddly did not address a lack of real high-level offensive profiles in their system after their top three prospects likely graduate as soon as the season opens. The only offensive player drafted outside Soderstrom, has a fourth outfielder ceiling and there were many options to take a gamble on a college hitter with at least some upside.
Minnesota Twins
While Sabato fits the Twins mold and is certainly an advanced hitter, it does create a bit of a potential issue, especially if he moves quickly. Miguel Sano has been moved to first base, is just 27, and is signed through 2022. Alex Kirilloff has little left to prove and has shown himself adept at first base defensively along with his bat showing well to end 2019. Brent Rooker played left field in AAA when healthy last year but is likely best-suited for 1B/DH. Add in Sabato to that mix, and that’s four young guys who all play the same spot. Whether the team could have pursued a power arm in that spot or a prep hitter is not clear. I do love the team flexing their scouting muscle on Texas prep arm Marco Raya, an undersized prep arm that really showed well in 2020.
New York Yankees
Only the Astros had less money than the Yankees, which limited what they really could do in the draft, but coming away with a slugger like Austin Wells is impressive. While he’d likely never catch for most clubs, the Yankees catching development system is unique and is one of just a few that he would have a chance to stick with. While it’s hard to pick on a three-player draft, Wells does have some significant flop potential due to his swing being a “loaded for bear” sort of all-out swing. He’ll need time to develop his eye and/or be a guy whose power plays because he can hold the catcher’s mitt. With very few bullets to fire, a guy with more security might have been a better pick.
Los Angeles Dodgers
With the last selection of the first round, the Dodgers could sit back and really make their pick. Predictably, they grabbed from where the talent was deepest in the class, nailing three excellent college arms in their first three picks before taking a top-rated prep outfielder. With the team’s emphasis on versatility from players, I thought there were better options with both the bat and proven glovework at many positions than fourth-round pick Carson Taylor, and they could have gone back to that multi-position well again in the fifth round, rather than pursue another arm. Though Stone could be a low-bonus selection to balance other picks along the way.
Houston Astros
When the first selection for your team is not until the 72nd overall pick due to a bang-up job done in the 2017 march to the World Series championship, expectations for the overall class are pretty low. That said, the Astros still were able to take a flyer with their first pick on a prep arm from New York City with big upside. That did require low-bonus college selections the rest of the way, but with a need from the majors on through the system for quality catching, not taking a single catcher was surprising, especially in a deep catching class like this year’s class was.