We’ve already run a couple posts at Prospects Live reacting to last week’s Perfect Game National Showcase. There’s Nathaniel Plotts’ mechanics-based look at some of the top talents, as well as our extremely early 2021 draft board. I’ve held off on reading either to this point so as not to color my own evaluations. Here, I’ll add my observations to the fray. I wasn’t able to attend the event in person, so this is entirely based upon PG’s live stream of fielding drills, batting practice and games.
As one quick note, I had no history with or knowledge of anyone in the 2021 prep class (beyond Perfect Game’s rankings of the players that appeared on their broadcast graphics). These are all first impressions, certain to change with time. With that caveat, I’ll list the eight players who most impressed me at the showcase. I’ll also discuss five players currently ranked outside Perfect Game’s top 100 preps who, while more likely to go to college than turn pro, are worth keeping an eye on as they progress.
Most Impressive Players
Ian Moller: C, Wahlert High School (IA), LSU commit
Moller looked like the best overall prospect in the showcase. He’s big and physical with strength-driven raw power and the approach to tap into it. He’s got an extremely uphill bat path geared for hard, pull-side loft. While the steepness of the swing would cause swing-and-miss in a lesser athlete, Moller also has a pretty good feel for the barrel and covered different areas of the strike zone in-game, suggesting there could be a pretty potent hit/power combo here. That’d be impressive enough on its own, but Moller’s also a catcher who shows all the actions to stick behind the plate. He moves well laterally, has a quick transfer and plus arm strength with accuracy. High school catching is a really risky demographic, which could push Moller down a bit on draft day, but he’s got all the traits you’d look for in an impact regular.
Braylon Bishop: CF, Arkansas High School (AR), Arkansas commit
A left-handed hitter, Bishop still has big-time physical projection but already loud tools. He showed plus bat speed with some loft in batting practice and is loose and athletic enough in his swing to move the barrel around. His in-game swing wasn’t nearly as impressive, as he often failed to engage his lower half and made minimal impact on contact. That said, he stayed patient in the box and held his own against left-handed pitching, and there’s certainly some chance he was simply acclimating back to game speed after a three-month layoff. Bishop’s fast enough to stick in center even as he physically matures and had a few good reads in the outfield off the bat. For now, I’m willing to bet the explosiveness he showed in batting practice more accurately reflects his true talent than the lite version we saw in-game.
Aries Samek: 3B, Taneck High School (NJ), Clemson commit
The right-handed hitting Samek looks the whole package offensively. He’s still got some room to fill out his 6’2” frame, but he’s plenty strong right now. He rotates extremely well in his swing and had a monster batting practice that carried over to the game, when he smoked a double 100 MPH off the bat to the right-center gap. He’s got enough bat control to cover the entire zone, and he had surprisingly advanced strike zone awareness for a New Jersey high schooler. (Cold weather preps are often less advanced than their warm weather counterparts due to lack of reps). That offensive profile on an above-average athlete with the plus arm needed to play third base at the next level feels like a potential first-rounder.
Alex Mooney: SS, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s Prep (MI), Duke commit
Like Samek, Mooney’s an advanced cold-weather infielder. He’s a shortstop, and his above-average quickness, hands and arm give him a shot of sticking there. Even if he eventually gets bumped off the position, he’s more than capable of handling the offensive bar at third base (or well outhitting the average second baseman). He’s got a good approach and strong wrists through contact, suggesting a potential above-average hit/power combination. Mooney’s a bit old for the high school class. That could knock him down on some teams’ draft models, but he’s still got a good chance at first-round consideration if he continues to perform over the next 12 months.
Maddux Bruns: LHP, Ums-Wright Preparatory (AL), Mississippi State commit
Bruns had among the best stuff of any arm in the showcase. He held his 93-96 MPH velocity both innings (all pitchers worked a max of two frames), and his fastball had good life at the top of the zone. Even more impressive was a 75-81 MPH curveball with huge movement and elite raw spin that projects to at least plus. Bruns’ mid-80’s slider wasn’t quite as electric, but it’s clearly firmer than and distinct from the hook. He had no issue throwing any of those pitches for strikes. Bruns is pretty physical already, so there’s probably not a ton of body projection, but he’s got more than enough stuff as is, assuming he holds onto it over longer outings.
Daylen Lile: CF, Trinity High School (KY), Louisville commit
Lile’s an above-average runner who has some shot to stick in center. His calling card, though, is his left-handed bat. He generates above-average whip and bat speed in his swing despite a quiet lower half. He simply stays within himself and consistently barreled up balls in-game, hitting multiple line drives with an exit velocity over 95 MPH to different areas of the field. Yet the at-bat of his that most positively reflected on his offensive polish actually ended in a strikeout. Lile came up against Florida Gulf Coast commit Jace Jones, who was working with perhaps the best changeup of any pitcher in Hoover. Like the hitters before him, he swung over the top of the offspeed pitch early in the count. While most seventeen-year-old hitters wouldn’t have stood a chance at coming back in that plate appearance, Lile recognized the offspeed stuff, adjusted mid-AB, and laid off a few tough, borderline pitches (including another plus changeup). He eventually got called out on a check swing, which replay showed he clearly held up in time. A box score wouldn’t suggest it, but it was one of the more impressive things I saw in the batter’s box all week.
Aaron Calhoun: RHP, Clear Book High School (TX), Oklahoma commit
Calhoun’s on the short side for pitchers, listed at 5’11”. That’s not nearly as concerning now as it would’ve been five years ago. We know that short pitchers often have something of an advantage when it comes to working at the top of the strike zone. While Calhoun may not look particularly imposing, the fire that comes from his right arm certainly is. He worked with a 92-96 MPH fastball with life that stayed above barrels at the top of the zone. He backed it up with a plus slider with huge lateral action away from right-handed hitters. There’s an easy explosiveness in Calhoun’s delivery, and he showed some feel for moving his fastball to different areas of the strike zone. Because he’s such a good athlete, I’m confident projecting he’ll continue to refine his command and secondaries with reps.
Christian Moore: SS, Suffield Academy (NY), Tennessee commit
Moore had the best defensive actions of any infielder in the showcase. He’s graceful and light on his feet and moves well laterally. His hands and arm were good, and he showed an advanced internal clock in games. He has all the makings of a future plus defender at shortstop. Those guys don’t need to hit much to be valuable, but Moore has some promising offensive traits too. He showed above-average bat speed and a loose, rhythmic swing with some gap power in batting practice. His timing at the dish was off during games, but I think that’s more a reflection of the pronounced layoff than any fatal flaw, since his offensive traits were fine.
Sleepers
Thatcher Hurd: RHP, Acalanes High School (CA), UC Santa Barbara commit
Hurd was 91-93 with plus fastball spin from a high 3/4 arm slot. He flashed an above-average slider with two-plane action and an average changeup, along with a show-me curveball. A good athlete with a fluid delivery, Hurd located all of his pitches and manipulated the shape of his fastball depending upon how he wanted to attack hitters. He’s got a bit more room for good weight on his 6’4” frame. If he adds a tick or two of velocity, he could be working with three average or better pitches and advanced pitchability at UCSB.
Colson Montgomery: 3B, Southridge High School (IN), Indiana commit
Montgomery’s a shortstop now, but he’s not going to play there professionally. He’s a fringy runner and athlete already, and his lanky frame (he’s listed at 6’4”) will add more weight. He’s got pretty good infield hands, though, so I think he could play a passable third base. Even if he has to move to a corner outfield spot, he’s got a shot to clear the offensive bar. Montgomery’s got plus bat speed already and gets his hands into hitting position quickly enough to help compensate for his long arms. Predictably for a player still growing into this kind of body, Montgomery struggled a bit with swing-and-miss during games. IU has proven one of the better hitting development programs in the country. An infielder with huge power and some bat control is a hell of a flyer for Jeff Mercer and his staff to try to help polish.
Jackson Jobe: RHP/SS, Heritage Hall High School (OK), Mississippi commit
Jobe’s deservedly getting plenty of attention for his pitching performance. He was up to 96 MPH with huge spin on his slider. Yet while he left the showcase as a RHP/SS, he entered it as a SS/RHP. Even before his pitching appearance, Jobe showed some promise as a position player. He’s got above-average bat speed, pull-side raw power and polished infield actions. I think he’s got a real chance to succeed as a two-way guy at Ole Miss.
Micah Ottenbreit: RHP, Trenton High School (MI), Michigan State commit
Ottenbreit’s profile is pretty similar to Hurd’s. He’s a good athlete who currently works 89-92, touching 93, with a bit of physical projection. He has huge spin on an above-average slider with an advanced feel for locating it, and he showed some changeup feel. The past few years haven’t been great for Spartans’ baseball, but Ottenbreit has the makings of a future Big Ten Friday starter.
Tommy Tavarez: SS, Grand Street Campus (NY), Pittsburgh commit
Tavarez is a good athlete who showed a plus arm on IF drills. With a high-waisted, projectable body, there’s room for mass on the frame. He’s got above-average whip in his swing already, so he figures to develop average raw power as he gets stronger. His swing path is geared for elevating low pitches, and he showed the ability to drive the ball the other way in games.