Week four of the weekly mailbag diving into your questions and providing what information we know. While I (@JoeDoyleMiLB) will be the one writing the piece, this is always a team effort. We’ll all see these questions and provide what insight we can. We all have different industry connections and different regional access, so I’ll be leaning on my team of Ralph (@ProspectJesus), Tyler (@TylerJennings24) and Ian (@FlaSmitty) for their expertise as well.
A lot of traffic on this subject in recent weeks, so I’ll do my best to tackle it.
On the surface level, yeah, the strikeouts do have some scouts concerned, but most aren’t overly worried yet. It’s imperative to stress how early it is. He’s also running a BB-rate north of 20-percent. So yes, Lawlar is probably expanding the zone a bit being pitched around as much as he is. That said, he was the best hitter in high school baseball last summer, and it was by a pretty comfortable margin. He showed an impressive approach, covered every zone, and drove the ball with authority to all fields.
One other thing to keep in mind, Dallas Jesuit is a private school in the Dallas-Metro area. They schedule the best competition they can from the Frisco-Arlington-Dallas-Fort Worth region. They’re not playing some small podunk league schedule. It’s some of the best teams Texas has to offer.
I think what we are seeing is Marcelo Mayer creeping into the conversation of top prep shortstop on the board. I wouldn’t go that far yet, but as I write today, those conversations exist.
For what it’s worth, Lawlar owns a K-rate near 15-percent for his prep career. I’d expect his performance to level off to a healthier level here soon.
At this stage, if the draft were today, Jud Fabian probably wouldn’t hear his name called in the first five picks. The K-rates are concerning, and his name has slid down some boards. But it only takes one team to believe in the raw tools, so never say never. There’s also a ton of time ahead of him, so if the performance gets back down to career-norms, he may buoy back up.
As for Rocker, it’s probably too early to say he’s falling down boards. Yes, the velo has fallen off a bit in his last few starts, but those starts were also dominant, and the slider looked no worse for wear. In fact, taking it a step forward, a lot of scouts in big league orgs still prefer Rocker to Jack Leiter. Rocker has a true 70-grade slider to go with his plus fastball. While Leiter may have a 70-grade fastball, he hasn’t yet shown a plus secondary pitch that he could ride for swing-and-miss at the next level. I’m sure Leiter will promptly shut me up this week**
As it pertains to Davis, I’ll keep the national angle. Personally, spending big money on a catcher in free agency should always be Plan B. If you can draft a college catcher and see him turn into a controllable, affordable organizational strength, that should always be preferred. I think what you’re alluding to is just how difficult it is to draft a catcher and see them turn into a great player.
I would point you in the direction of catchers drafted in the top ten. That demographic has shown to be really special. In the last decade, here are the college backstops selected in the top ten:
Matt Weiters
Buster Posey
Jason Castro
Tony Sanchez
Mike Zunino
Zack Collins
Joey Bart
Adley Rutschman
Shea Langeliers
There’s some really, really good names on that list. Wieters and Posey have had fantastic careers. Castro is no slouch either. He’s been worth 15 fWAR. Despite his bat, Zunino has been a 14 fWAR player. The rest are too young determine right now. All that said, if your scouting department deems Davis worthy of a top ten pick, I think he’s a solid bet to perform as a big leaguer. I like the whole package more than I did with Collins or Langeliers.
Thanks for the question, Tyler. First, let’s identify what scouts like about Watson. The athleticism, the bat speed, his quick hands, the attack angle… it’s all there to be an impact bat. Watson also possesses a strong arm on defense.
That said, there are concerns too. Watson has shown the tendency to expand the zone a bit. He swings through pitches in the zone at times because he sells out for power in ambush counts. Watson’s hit tool has more questions on it than Lawlar or Mayer, and there’s also a slight chance he’ll have to move off shortstop. Those questions don’t exist with the other two names.
There’s a definitive up-arrow next to Watson’s name, and he could be a really special hitter, but it’s important to take the measurable attributes a player possesses and combine them with in-game ability too. If we were talking purely in terms of unique physical ability, Benny Montgomery probably goes first overall. Every little nugget is a piece to a much larger puzzle.
Do I think it will ever happen? Yes. Do I think it should happen? Absolutely. But there will need to be changes for it to work.
The idea behind the rule as it stands today is to allow a “bad” team to improve by getting a higher draft choice than “good” teams. The problem is, bad teams are bad, in a lot of cases, because they won’t spend money like the “good” teams. So in that respect, it affords the “bad” teams the opportunity to run into a cheap, controllable star player now and again.
I think where the waters get murky is teams “buying” draft picks. The last thing you want to see is the Yankees or Dodgers sending a large sum of cash to the Pirates for their early pick. So in that respect, trades would need to be signed off on by the league for competitive balance purposes. But if we’re talking about the Reds, for example, trading this years’ no. 17, no. 34 and no. 52 pick to the Red Sox for the 4th pick in the draft, wouldn’t that be fun? And you could make the argument the Red Sox would be better off anyways having traded away one pick worth $6.6m in bonus pool monies to the Reds in exchange for 3 picks worth $7.15m in bonus pool values (2020 values).
I think it could work, and make the MLB Draft that much more interesting so long as it’s regulated by Major League Baseball, which, admittedly, is also a questionable ask when put into practice.