The winter is right around the corner and it’s time we turn our attention to the 2022 MLB Draft. Fall scrimmages are underway on campus, the high school summer showcase circuit is behind us and big data has begun rolling in. Live look, first-hand onsite scouting will always take priority in player evaluation, but the advent of Trackman and Hawk-Eye, plus side session training systems like Rapsodo and Blast Motion allow us to help qualify tools rather than exclusively eyeball them.
This year, we’ll kick things off with the 2022 catcher class. It’s a good year for college catchers, while high school catchers look awfully promising even if the crop of talent might not be top-heavy. This class features pure hitters, as well as catch-and-throw talents, both of which always have a place in the draft.
There were four catchers selected on day one (the first round, as well as the Competitive Balance A round) in 2020 and 2021; the most since 2007. Three were selected in 2018 and 2019. Going back five years, 2017 saw zero backstops selected on day one. What should we expect in 2022?
First off, the catcher position is unique. Teams aren’t simply looking for a player with a good hit tool, some athleticism and the ability to impact the baseball. Indeed, the position of catcher is complex. So much so that a lot of big league catchers are found in the later rounds, some of which come from different positions entirely. Still, the ability to control the strike zone, put the ball in play, and generate translatable exit velocities is an awfully good starting block for success at the next level.
Below is a chart showing the best combinations of strikeout rate and average exit velocity for the 2021 college season. Only catchers are included. Let’s first highlight where high draft picks reside.
As you can see, it’s certainly not as simple as plotting who has the best bat on a chart. Number one overall pick Henry Davis certainly lives in a region of his own, but pick no. 35 Matheu Nelson and, for good measure, pick no. 67 Adrian Del Castillo sit in different buckets entirely. Del Castillo’s profile is buoyed by outlandishly high contact rates while Nelson is helped by top-of-the-scale peak exit velocities. A lot of the points on this chart have no chance of staying behind the plate as professionals. Nelson, Del Castillo and Davis all represent promising hitters, as well as the ability to catch at the next level, albeit with varying degrees of likelihood.
So where do some of the best 2022 prospects sit?
As far as bats go, it’s a pretty impressive year for college catchers. These numbers, mind you, a year prior to their draft-eligible seasons of 2022. All of these guys still have the benefit of another year of development. Better still, a lot of these players are talented catch-and-throw guys too. Hayden Dunhurst and Logan Tanner have two of the best throwing arms college baseball has seen in some time. Kevin Parada, Daniel Susac, Kody Huff and Nate LaRue all possess qualities teams are looking for in capable catchers who can stick at the position at the next level, with the bats to warrant early-round consideration.
Daniel Susac, C, Arizona
A big, tall, switch-hitting catcher, Susac immediately brings back visions of Matt Wieters at Georgia Tech. Susac has a very good arm behind the plate, and more explosiveness and lateral mobility than most catchers his size do. But this guy will make his money with the bat. A potential plus hitter with plus power, Susac projects a middle-of-the-order impact bat, a run producer and a stalwart defender up the middle of the field. His .335/.392/.591 slash as a true freshman last season earned him plenty of postseason awards. Susac's peak exit velocities surpass that of Davis’s from 2021. He’s hit balls over 112 mph in Tucson, all while producing above average contact rates and finding barrels (95+ mph, 10-30 degree launch angle) more than 20 percent of the time. The kid can bang. The question on Susac will be whether his body will allow him to stay behind the plate long-term. For my money, he’s more than athletic enough to handle the crouch so long as he stays healthy. Susac has some of the best makeup of anybody in this class and showcases top-of-the-scale leadership qualities teams will want to see. If a team believes he’s a catcher through his prime, Susac has a shot to be a Top 10 pick next July.
Logan Tanner, C, Mississippi State
Logan Tanner has an absolute howitzer behind the plate and a prototype body (6-0, 218) that should help him hold up to the rigors of the position as he ages. Tanner’s bat is equally as impressive. The Lucedale, Mississippi native slashed .287/.382/.525 in 2021 with 15 homers. Like Susac, Tanner peaked at over 111 mph and found barrels over 20 percent of his at-bats last season. He’s got above average contact rates and avoids strike outs. Tanner has the mobility and flexibility behind the plate teams want to see with an effortless, compact arm action. In essence, he’s the prototype in a lot of ways and he’s got significant first round upside because of it.
Hayden Dunhurst, C, Ole Miss
Like Tanner, Dunhurst is a catch-and-throw monster with some evaluators throwing an elite 80-grade arm on the profile. Dunhurst can hit. More of a line drive approach, Dunhurst finished 2021 with a .280/.385/.435 slash with 7 homers. He can get a bit pull-happy, but when Dunhurst is on a pitch, he’s got significant raw power to put behind a swing. He doesn’t impact the baseball with quite as much authority as the two preceding him on this list, but is right in that sweet spot where he could make a big jump in 2022 if he gets a pinch stronger and starts to stay up the middle of the field with more frequency. Dunhurst is a big, thick-bodied backstop who figures to be in play early in the 2022 draft and should stick behind the plate as a pro.
Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
Parada is an aggressive, bat-first backstop who uses the whole, though his punch is primarily to the pull-side. At 6-foot-1, 200 pounds, Parada has the ideal pro catcher body and does a nice job behind the plate, especially throwing. It was a massive true freshman campaign for the Pasadena, Calif. product, slashing .318/.379/.550 with 9 homers and 20 doubles in 52 games. Parada has the athleticism to handle third base or an outfield position at the next level should a team buy exclusively for the bat. Scouts will want to see him cut down his strikeout percentage a tick or two in 2022 should he hope to get selected at the very top of the draft. If Parada hits like he did in 2021 again next season, and continues to improve his framing and blocking, he’s a good bet to go in the first round.
Nate LaRue, C, Auburn
Maybe the most unheralded player of the group, LaRue has a monster arm behind the plate and a bat that’s certainly up to snuff. LaRue hits the ball as hard as any of the other players mentioned above, though his contact and strikeout rates are the low hanging fruit to improve his draft stock next spring. He posted average contact rates last season, as well as a 22 percent strikeout rate that clubs will want to see improve should he hope to go really early next July. LaRue uses the whole field, though he can get a little flyball happy at times. His .219/.333/.469 slash, especially the batting average, probably isn’t indicative of just how good the bat could perform next season. Granted it was over just 17 games and 39 plate appearances. Look for this kid to surge next spring.
Kody Huff, C, Stanford
Huff is my pick to click next spring. He performed well in 2021, slashing .263/.336/.399 with 5 homers and 12 doubles. Huff doesn’t hit the ball quite as hard as the names listed above (yet), but he stays up the middle of the field and has a beautifully sound swing with power to his pull-side. Huff has an above average arm and he avoids strikeouts. Huff was a 32nd round pick by the Rays in 2019, which feels noteworthy considering the organization that selected him. Huff can also play third base at the next level. In any case, he’s got the leadership qualities, the athleticism, and the mobility to play behind the plate as a pro. Watch for Huff to play his way into the first two rounds in 2022.
Other To Watch: Jimmy Crooks, Oklahoma; Jonathan French, Clemson; Jimmy Obertop, Michigan; Matt McCormick, Tennessee; Jack Bulger, Vanderbilt; Matt Wood, Penn State; Hayden Travinski, LSU; Silas Ardoin, Texas; Maxwell Romero Jr., Miami; Alex Milazzo, LSU; Brendan Tinsman, Wake Forest; Anthony Tulimero, Houston; Chad Knight, Duke; Luke Hancock, Mississippi State; Tomas Frick, North Carolina; Tatem Levine, Pittsburgh; Taylor Smith, Texas A&M
High school catchers are an incredibly volatile demographic, but there are a handful of guys with big upside and promising bats. A few to watch at the top of the draft: Brady Neal, IMG Academy; Jared Jones, Walton; Malcolm Moore, McClatchy; Ross Highfill, Madison Central; Luke Heyman, Lake Brantley
Conclusion: Things are looking really strong on the college side of catching for 2022 with as many as six obvious guys who could play their way up into day one. There’s exceptional depth in the 2022 class for college catchers and a lot of them can really hit. These guys’ batted-ball numbers and rate stats were already impressive outside of their draft-eligible year. Expect gains in that regard as they grow a year older and stronger. Ultimately, college catchers may end up being the strength of the class.