Let’s get the obvious out of the way here. First base is a bat-first position. The ability to drive the baseball for power, the ability to hit gap-to-gap, to drive in runs, these usually take precedence over most defensive skills on the dirt. While the position may not have the same rigors as other positions on the diamond, it is still important to exhibit the traits to competently play the position well at the pro level. Scouts want to see soft hands, some lateral ability, as well as instinctual feel for the bag. First base has a lot of plays that are unique for the position that require awareness and the ability to manipulate the body around the pillow to make the out. So while the position may not demand the bounce and twitch other positions do, it does still require some fundamental prowess, good baseball feel and athletic actions both cognitively and athletically.
The challenge that comes for first basemen in the MLB Draft is most evaluators would agree their physical development has just about reached its peak. Collegiate first basemen are, in a lot of cases, playing the position because they are not athletic enough to handle another position on the field. This is not always the case, and it’s not the case with all the names on this list, but that narrative does exist. Big league organizations want versatility and the ability to move players around a bit as roster construction and player development demands it. If a third baseman isn’t cutting it at the hot corner, teams want the ability to move him to first as the bat warrants more plate appearances. If a corner outfielder or a catcher prove to be a liability in the field, teams want the flexibility to move them to first base to potentially keep that bat in the lineup. That becomes more challenging with guys stapled in at first base. There’s an extreme amount of pressure on the bat of a first baseman. In a lot of cases, it’s hit or take a seat. 2021 saw just twelve first basemen taken in the entire 20-round draft, comfortably less than any other position. The bat really needs to set itself apart.
Everyone on this list has shown the ability to hit. Many of these names are special bats with the potential to hit and slug their way to the big leagues. This class may not have a Spencer Torkelson or an Aaron Sabato, but it does have a handful of guys with some big tools and upward mobility.
Luke Gold, Boston College
Gold has played exclusively at second base and third base for the Eagles, but we believe his future is at first base. That’s no slight to Gold either. His bat is more than apt enough to handle either corner infield role.
At 6-foot, 215 pounds, Gold is a burly-bodied hitter with a track record of success in the box. 2021 saw the Chestnut Hill dynamo post a .316/.364/.576 slash with nine homers and a strikeout rate under 16 percent. Gold showed a real knack for barreling up the baseball and an innate ability to launch. He’s got present game power and enough raw power to project a potential above average power bat at the pro level. Gold has a shot at being a 55/55 bat as a pro. That can be awfully difficult to find.
If there’s anything to nitpick in Gold’s offensive game it’s his aggression at the plate. Gold is in no hurry to draw walks. He kicks the dirt off his cleats in the box with the intention of doing damage. His swing rate is pretty high, so chasing out of the zone can become a habit at times, but it’s not a huge deterrent to his total game as he makes a ton of contact. The bat-to-ball skills here are pretty impressive.
On the dirt, Gold has pretty soft hands. He got the forehand, the backhand and everything in-between. Where Gold struggles is throwing. It’s fringy arm strength. Gold’s athleticism limits his ability to make some of the throws necessary when charging the baseball and making the play moving to his right. That said, the routine play and moving to his left are plenty comfortable. At second base, it’s much of the same. Gold’s inability to make a strong throw moving to his right into the hole is the primary shortcoming. He turns a smooth double play and makes everything routine look fluid and easy. Defensively, you could certainly make the case Gold is capable of playing Ty France-esque defense, but that profile might make more sense at first base. And that’s okay because Gold has all the characteristics of an above average, maybe even a plus glove at the position.
Dalton Rushing, Louisville
Much like Gold, Rushing is a muscled-up 6-0, 215-pound thumper with bat speed galore. He was blocked for much of the 2021 campaign behind guys like Alex Binelas, Henry Davis, Cam Masterman and Trey Leonard, but 2022 figures to be a breakout campaign for the pride of Brighton, Tennessee. Rushing spent much of the spring and early summer transforming his body. He showed up to the Cape Cod League for a summer with Bourne absolutely shredded. Scouts took notice.
Rushing is a bit of a lottery ticket here as much of the draft projection lays in confidence he’ll take the next step in his development next season. It was a decent 2021 with Louisville, slashing .254/.342/.463, but Rushing played in just 28 games, less than half of the team’s total contests for the year. Still, scouts on the Cape saw the potential and invited him up. He did not disappoint. Over 142 plate appearances, nearly twice as many as he received at Louisville, Rushing slashed .314/.401/.542 with six homers. Many who saw him on the Cape believed he was also a victim of bad luck and that his line should have been far more impressive than it ended up. Rushing will need to take that production and apply it on campus in 2022 should he hope to become a high pick. This could end up a fringe-average hit tool with above average power if he takes the leap many expect he’s capable of.
Defensively, Rushing is an average athlete with a strong arm. He played a lot of catcher in high school, and could get some run behind the plate for the Cardinals next season. Rushing is a fringy runner, so experimenting with him in the outfield may not be entirely out of the question.
At the end of the day, like every other first baseman on this list, Rushing’s bat will need to do the majority of the talking next season to warrant draft status. The physical tools are certainly there, he’ll just need to prove it on the field.
Ivan Melendez, Texas
After a blistering JUCO career at Odessa College, Melendez showed up in Austin last season and pounded the baseball for the Longhorns. A 6-foot-3, 230-pound bruiser, Melendez checks all the boxes you’d expect in the batters box and has enough athleticism to handle the bag, as well as the arm to handle third base in a pinch. Melendez was a 16th round selection by the Miami Marlins last year, but returns to school in the hopes of jumping up into the top ten rounds and help push a loaded Texas squad deep into Omaha.
Melendez had a huge 2021 slashing .319/.438/.603 with 13 homers. Those outlandish figures, coupled with elite batted-ball data, landed Melendez inside the Top 20 in the entire country in xwOBA. The hulking righty actually led the entire country in average exit velocity last season, an outlandish 98.7 mph figure. Make no mistake, this is comfortably 70-grade raw power. That’s certainly the book on Melendez. He pummels the baseball. As you might imagine, there are some strikeout concerns in this profile. If there wasn’t, Melendez would have gone well before the 16th round this July. He punched out a quarter of his at-bats last season. If Melendez can get that number under 20 percent, he could hear his name jump into that top-five round range in 2022.
Defensively, Melendez is limited, but most would agree his best days with the leather are ahead of him. He’s a good athlete with good feet, and a much better athlete than most first basemen. He only played six games in the field last season, mostly because the Longhorns already had first base covered with veteran Zach Zubia. Expect Melendez to get a ton of run on the pillow in 2022, stapling his profile as a more complete player on draft day. The bat will dictate how high Melendez can go, but don’t sleep on the athlete as a whole.
Dom Keegan, Vanderbilt
Keegan, a 19th round pick by the Yankees in 2021, figures to anchor the Vandy Boys™ lineup in 2022. Like Rushing and Gold, Keegan is a stout 6-foot, 210 pounds. Also like Rushing, Keegan has a background as a primary catcher in high school. He caught just one game for the Commodores last season, spending 59 others at first base.
Keegan had a massive year at the plate in 2021, slashing .345/.427/.638 with 15 homers. Like Melendez, Keegan also ranked in the top 25 in the country in xwOBA at .468. Punch outs will be the biggest detriment on Keegan’s profile heading into 2022. He’ll need to cut his 28 percent K-rate down quite a few ticks if he hopes to jump into the top-half of the draft. Still, what you’re buying in Keegan is big raw power and batted-ball data that’s sexy to some big league teams.
Defensively, Keegan is fringy with some stiff actions. Evaluators would like to see him play lower to the ground and smother ground balls with more consistency. Keegan doesn’t look completely comfortable on underhand tosses to the pitcher yet, but he’s a good enough athlete he will probably improve in that department as he matures. Keegan has decent lateral mobility and gets to pretty much every ball to his left and right you’d expect him to.
Like everyone else on this list, it’s sink or swim with the bat. It’ll be paramount Keegan post another big year offensively in 2022. If the strikeout rate and contact rates improve, Keegan could prove one of the biggest sluggers available in the 2022 MLB Draft.
Reggie Crawford, Connecticut
Crawford is one of the most dynamic two-way athletes available next year. On the mound, he’s a hard-throwing southpaw, up to 97 with a sharp breaking ball. At the plate, he’s power-hitting first baseman with big raw power. Unfortunately, Crawford underwent Tommy John Surgery after a brief stint on the Cape. He won’t throw this season, and it’s unlikely he’ll do any hitting either. Still, with such a unique talent, it wouldn’t shock anyone if a team pulled the trigger and selected Crawford in July.
His offensive game is unrefined. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound lefty ran a .295/.349/.543 line with 13 homers last season. That said, it came with a 33-percent chase rate and a strikeout rate approaching 26 percent. The accompanying contact rate also shows room for improvement. But those numbers came as a 20-year-old still learning what he’s capable of. Who knows the improvements his bat could have seen in 2022. Like most others on this list, Crawford also possesses top-of-the-scale max exit velocity numbers, even if his consistency to find the barrel isn’t quite as bountiful as others on this list.
Crawford is a supreme athlete for his size. He plays an average first base with good feet and reasonably soft hands for the position. He’s got more burst than most others on this list. Regardless, Crawford would probably be utilized in a more unique fashion as a pro, possibly a pinch hitter or designated hitter with the ability to pitch the following inning. It’s a pretty fun combination and forward-thinking organizations may covet that versatility.
Others to watch: Luke Hancock, Mississippi State; Tim Elko, Ole Miss;, Brady Slavens, Arkansas; Peyton Williams, Iowa; Spencer Jones, Vanderbilt; Blake Klassen, UC-Santa Barbara; Charlie Fisher, Southern Miss; Drew Compton, Georgia Tech; Kris Armstrong, Florida; Kendrick Calilao, Florida; Will Butcher, Charlotte; David McCabe, Charlotte; Jake Thompson, Oklahoma State; Alberto Osuna, North Carolina; Nathan Martorella, Cal