Byline: Brian Recca
The Tri-State area (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut) isn’t exactly known for being a hotbed of baseball talent despite being one of the most densely populated areas in the nation. But every once in a while a Mike Trout, an Ian Anderson, or a Jack Leiter comes along and reminds everyone that you can’t overlook the region. In fact, the Northeast has become a big of a breeding ground for draft talent in recent years. The draft classes for the region have been pretty strong since Leiter and Anthony Volpe made their presence known in 2019. Alex Santos, Kyle Teel, and Patrick Reilly of the 2020 class have proven to be solid pro-level prospects for the future. And 2021 was a banner year for the Tri-State with five players (Frank Mozzicato, Joe Mack, Chase Petty, Anthony Solometo, and Matt Mikulski) selected in the top 50 picks. The 2022 class likely won’t reach the heights of last year, but there’s still plenty of draftable talent dispersed through the three states. Here are some players to keep an eye on over the next several months. .
NAMES TO KNOW
Nazier Mule
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher/Shortstop
School: Passaic County Tech (NJ)
Commitment: Miami
Nazier Mule (pronounced Moo-lay) is one of the most electric athletes in the 2022 draft class. He’s a legitimate two-way talent with notable tools on both sides of the ball. There were some questions about whether Mule profiled better at the plate or on the mound entering this summer. As the summer/fall progressed, Mule looked more and more like a future pitcher with a dramatic upward trend over the past several months. Mule was selected to play in the Perfect Game All-American Classic and his goal was to hit 100 MPH to cap off his showcase season. Not only did he hit 100 MPH that night, his fastball sat at 99 MPH for his full one inning outing.
Mule has a large, athletic frame with broad shoulders, long limbs, and well-proportioned present strength. He’s quite nimble with athletic movements and a good deal of physical projection remaining. The arm talent is phenomenal, and the combination of arm strength and arm speed is one of the best in the class. . Mule has a short arm action and a ¾ to low ¾ slot. It’s a whippy arm and the ball explodes out of the hand. He has the athleticism to improve the repeatability of his delivery which will be a key for Mule moving forward.
We know Mule can hit the century mark with his fastball, but he’ll typically sit anywhere between 92-97 MPH. He gets occasional late running and sinking movement to his arm side but it can play a bit too straight at times. There is turbo sinker potential with further refinement. Mule has also flashed two projectable secondary pitches in his slider and changeup. The breaking ball is a low 80s gyro slider with 10-4 type shape. It flashes solid movement and spin rates as high as 2,600+ RPM.. There’s changeup feel too, with some good deception and fade. Mule does a really good job of maintaining a consistent arm speed on both his secondary pitches which bodes well for their future playability. It’s not a refined pitch mix at this point but you can expect rapid improvement as Mule continues to focus on pitching.
Mule is still quite raw as a pitcher and he’ll need to hone his craft as he matures. His fastball command is scattered and there are some mechanical things he can improve to help him maintain consistency. Mule is young for the class and won’t turn 18 until after draft day (whenever that is). He has a lot of development ahead of him and could climb into 1st round territory with continued growth on the mound this spring.
Caden Dana
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: Don Bosco Prep (NJ)
Commitment: Kentucky
While Mule is the flashier Jersey prep arm, Dana is probably more polished at this stage. Like Mule, Dana took the mound at the Perfect Game All-American Classic and worked a scoreless inning that included 2 strikeouts. Dana topped out at 94 MPH that evening, while sitting 92-94.. He was up to 95 MPH this summer and can maintain 90-94 MPH velocity deep into starts.
Dana has a classic pitcher’s build at 6’5/225. It’s a large and projectable frame with wide shoulders and a thick lower half. He’s lean and athletic which allows him to move well on the mound. Dana has a short, compact arm motion with an arm slot that is somewhere between high ¾ and over the top. His arm works quick and his mechanics are clean and loose. He works straight and in line to the plate with good balance and some ability to repeat when he’s at his best. The fastball comes out of the hand at a good angle with sinking action down and some run at the top of the zone. It’s a quality offering that projects well moving forward.
Dana has two usable secondaries with his breaking ball flashing big time potential. His big breaking curveball will show 11-5 or 12-6 downer shape in the mid-to-high 70s. The pitch has good depth, tight spin, and Dana can tunnel it well with the fastball. It projects as a swing and miss pitch at the next level. The changeup is lightly used and it plays a bit too firm with mid-to-upper 80s velocity. He has feel for it though, and it can flash fading action when executed properly.
Dana really popped at PG National with an easy outing that included 6 strikeouts and double digit whiffs in a two inning appearance. He wasn’t as crisp at some other events like PDP and hasn’t pitched much since the Classic in late August. A strong and healthy spring would be a nice boost to Dana’s draft stock. He has a starting pitcher’s toolkit that should be attractive to pro teams in the 2-4 round range.
Trey Dombroski
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
School: Monmouth
Trey Dombroski (not to be confused with this Dombrowski) was one of the bigger surprises over the summer with the way he pitched for the Hawich Mariners on the Cape. The unheralded southpaw out of Monmouth University proved that his spring campaign (52.2 IP, 2.73 ERA, 64 K, 8 BB) was no fluke with an eye-opening display (37.2 IP, 1.19 ERA, 51 K, 3 BB) of pitchability. Our very own Will Hoefer was able to get his eyes on Dombroski and came away impressed, putting a potential 3rd round tag next to his name. Currently, #130 on the Prospects Live draft board, Dombroski should do well on draft day with his mix of performance and starter traits.
Dombroski is a tall and large lefty standing in at 6’5/225. He looks durable and is put together in a way that makes one confident that he can hold up long into starts and deep into a season. His body can probably be firmed up further with a professional level strength and conditioning team behind him, which adds a layer of projectability to Dombroski’s profile.
On the mound, Dombroski shows a very high level of pitchability and feel for a 4 pitch mix. There is some stiffness to his drop and drive type delivery but it clearly works for him as he’s able to repeat at will. His ability to repeat is a big reason for his success as it aids his command and allows him to tunnel his secondaries with his fastball. The fastball has 40 grade velocity in the 87-91, t92 MPH range but plays well above that for a variety of reasons. There’s quality fastball shape on his 4 seamer which gives it some whiff potential and playability up in the zone. He also utilizes a 2 seam fastball that he can run in on lefties or away from righties, making it a pitch that can generate weak contact. What really separates Dombroski’s fastball from others in this velocity range is his ability to command it to all 4 quadrants. Dombroski lives on the edges of the strike zone which makes it hard for hitters to jump on the pitch despite subpar velocity.
The secondary pitches all grade about average with his upper 70s/low 80s slider playing above that level. The slider is of the sweeping variety and is a devastating pitch against lefty bats. His curveball is more of a fringy type pitch in the high 70s with occasional 12-6 shape. It’s pretty loopy but he can land it for strikes and it provides a different look for him which makes it a useful pitch. He doesn’t rely on the changeup much, preferring to stick mostly with the fastball and slider. But the change looks like a solid average pitch that could project further with continued usage. His fastball command is special, but the command of his secondaries is impressive as well. Overall, it’s a nice starter’s mix that plays up through Dombroski’s command, feel, and tunneling ability.
Dombroski is the type of pitchability lefty that grades higher when you consider the sum of his parts. He has early day 2 potential and could climb higher with an uptick in velocity this spring.
Reggie Crawford
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher/First Base
School: Connecticut
I don’t think it’s hyperbole to say that Reggie Crawford was the most highly anticipated college arm heading into the spring. That tends to happen when you are a 6’4 lefty that can tickle triple digits with your fastball. That’s what we saw from Crawford over the summer during his time on the Cape and with the US College National Team. The UConn Huskie arrived on campus with premium two-way ability but received a limited number of innings (8 IP) between 2020-2021. Crawford certainly has some potential with the bat, highlighted by better than plus raw power, but his ability on the mound is too remarkable to ignore.
Crawford is a superb athlete with a large, strong frame at 6’4/235. He was a state champion swimmer in Pennsylvania which gives you an idea of what kind of athlete and physical presence Crawford is. Crawford shows a loose arm action with a ¾ release. The arm speed is quick and whippy but he throws with noticeable effort on release. Over the summer, Crawford was sitting in the upper 90s during short appearances and reportedly touched 101 MPH. It’s a very high spin fastball with spin rates north of 2,500 RPM and overall it has the potential to be a plus-plus type pitch. Crawford also surprises with his breaking ball feel and ability to tunnel with his fastball. Crawford utilizes a low 80s slider that has swing and miss potential at the next level. Overall, it’s an extremely loud two pitch combo that could be overpowering at the next level.
Unfortunately, Crawford went down with an injury during fall ball this October. He’s now expected to miss the entire 2022 season recovering from Tommy John surgery. It's an absolutely brutal injury that you hate to see any athlete go through, especially an athlete like Crawford that shined so bright in a short amount of time. Hopefully Crawford has a healthy and speedy recovery over the next several months.
Obviously we won’t be watching Crawford compete this spring. But that doesn’t mean we can just write him off as a draft prospect. All it takes is one team to bet on the arm that we saw this summer showing up in pro ball. We have a very, very small sample of innings and appearances to make any sort of evaluation with Crawford. There are so many unknowns here that it may not be worthwhile for pro teams or Crawford to go pro in this years’ draft cycle. On the other hand, we’ve seen teams take early shots on high powered arms with limited track records before. LSU’s Jaden Hill is a prime example of this as he was drafted by the Rockies last year in the 2nd round (44th overall). Hill only had 51.1 innings during his time at LSU but that was enough to command a bonus that eclipsed $1.6MM. Crawford is about 30 innings short of Hill’s innings total when you include his summer work. He’s a true wild card heading into a deep 2022 draft.
We were robbed of a spring season of Crawford on the bump but his draft situation will be an intriguing case study this summer. Crawford showed 1st round potential prior to the injury and could retain interest anywhere within the 1-4 round range.
HIGH FOLLOWS
Zach Crotchfelt
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
School: Jackson Memorial (NJ)
Commitment: Auburn
You aren’t going to find all too much in Jackson, New Jersey besides Six Flags, premium shopping outlets, and The Pine Barrens. But the town is starting to build a reputation for producing amateur talent on the baseball diamond.. Red Sox 2010 1st rounder Anthony Ranaudo and Los Angeles 2016 1st rounded Matt Thaiss both played high school ball in Jackson. Now a third pro level talent has popped up in Central Jersey, lefty Zach Crotchfelt.
Crotchfelt stands at 6’3/210 with a long and tall frame and lanky appendages. He’s powerfully built with broad shoulders and some physical projection remaining. He shows athletic actions on the mound and easy velocity from a lower ¾ slot. The delivery looks clean and repeatable with a quick and easy arm action. Crotchfelt has a compact delivery that he closes off toward the end which adds deception and can make for an uncomfortable at bat.
Crotchfelt hit 93 MPH at the PG National Showcase in July. He typically works between 89-92 while averaging about 90 MPH on his fastball. Crotchfelt attacks hitters downhill and can show varied fastball shape and movement. He’ll get heavy armside arm at times, occasional carry and ride up in the zone, and will also show some cutting life on the fastball. He’s flashed the ability to use the pitch effectively in multiple areas of the strike zone. Crotchfelt’s slider is an effective secondary pitch coming from a tough angle towards the plate. The pitch will flash late bite and 1-7 or 2-8 bending shape. The velocity on the pitch is usually in the upper 70s, scraping 80 MPH. Crotchfelt has shown the ability to locate the breaker down in the zone where it shows swing and miss potential. The changeup doesn’t feature a ton of movement and is mostly of the straight variety. But Crotchfelt has some feel for locating it effectively to righties while selling the pitch through release.
Crotchfelt will have the attention of many area scouts after a string of quality summer performances. He’s just starting to scratch the surface of his pitching abilities and looks primed for a big spring season. Crotchfelt has early day 2 potential with continued growth on the mound.
Kyle McCoy
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
School: Hunterdon Central (NJ)
Commitment: Maryland
I was able to catch a glimpse of Kyle McCoy back in September at the PG WWBA Northeast Qualifier. It was easy to see why he’s such a draw with the way he conducts himself on the mound. McCoy instantly stands out for his long, slender, and projectable frame. He looks like a giant on the mound when compared to the other high schoolers on the field. McCoy will need to add significant strength to his 6’5/180 body but that should only aid him in the future.
Because of all the moving parts, you tend to see a lot of issues in the delivery of a young pitcher with this type of build. That’s not the case with McCoy. McCoy’s body control is truly impressive with the way he syncs up his long levers during his throwing motion. It's a long windup and arm action with a slow and controlled tempo. McCoy uses his length and lower half well allowing him to release the ball out front which gives him good extension while working downhill. Everything is easy and loose including the arm. He attacks hitters from a deceptive angle which is further enhanced by a low ¾ arm slot. There is some effort and head movement on release which will need to be monitored moving forward.
McCoy primarily worked off the fastball when I saw him. He sat 88-90 for 3 innings grabbing a 91 a couple of times. That’s right about where he’s been most of the summer. The fastball has serious arm side life and he gets a good downward plane and angle on the pitch. McCoy fills the zone at a very high rate (over 80% strikes in my view) but has significantly more control than command at this stage, though he projects well in the command department moving forward. McCoy’s main secondary is a slurvy shaped breaking ball with 1-7 shape. The pitch plays up because of McCoy’s effective tunneling off his fastball. There’s late vertical tilt when he throws it with conviction and he even shows early feel for locating it to the back foot of righties. McCoy didn’t use a changeup when I saw him, but he’s flashed a quality cambio at other events. The pitch shows both fading action and depth giving it the look of a solid average pitch.
McCoy may not have the loudest arsenal at this present moment, but there’s a lot to like moving forward. It’s a favorable blend of polish and physical projection with the makings of a future starting pitcher. With his size and arm slot, McCoy could shoot up into the early day 2 discussion with a spring velocity spike.
Dale Stanavich
Position: Left-Handed Pitcher
School: Rutgers
Stanavich was someone I was really excited to finally see at the D1 level this past spring. He had some buzz as a juco arm out of Herkimer CC with rumors of 95+ velocity from the left side. Stanavich had a successful rookie campaign (23 IP, 3.13 ERA, 30 K, 9 BB) as the Scarlet Knights closer and then shoved on the Cape this summer (16 IP, 2.25 ERA, 30 K, 8 BB).
Stanavich performed well, but his stuff wasn’t always consistent. He’s undersized at 5’10 or 5’11 and around 180 lbs. He’s more athletic than physical, but it’s impressive athleticism that shows up in spades on the mound. Stanavich moves quickly with an aggressive and athletic delivery. He has very quick arm speed, a longer arm action, and higher than ¾ arm slot. He’s deceptive with the way he’s able to hide the ball during his motion and he releases from a low height and good angle towards the plate. There are repeatability issues which isn’t all that surprising given the amount of moving parts and timing mechanisms that he needs to sync up. You’ll see Stanavich’s stuff tick down and his command will back up when things get out of whack.
At his best, Stanavich will sit in the 92-94 MPH area with his fastball, with the ability to reach back for some 95s and 96s. The pitch plays up with the aforementioned deception and arm angle. Stanavich will flash plus carry and swing and miss potential up in the zone with his fastball. But Stanavich is often sitting 90-92 and the fastball loses a lot of swing and miss potential when sitting in this velocity band. It’s a similar story with his breaking ball. The quality and consistency are behind the fastball, but the pitch flashes potential. Stanavich’s slider will range from a 45 (fringy) to 55 (above average) grade secondary. It’s a low 80s pitch that can flash hard bite and downer action. In theory, it should coalesce with his fastball into an effective two-pitch combo. That isn’t always the case as the slider will lack conviction and feel making it more of a “get me over” type weapon.
Stanavich had a good streak towards the end of the CCBL season as he showed his higher end stuff more frequently. Stanavich is limited to a pen role and will be 23 years old on draft day. That will significantly limit his overall draft value this summer. If he’s able to build on his Cape performance and show his best stuff this spring, Stanavich could be a sneaky “senior discount” type pick in the 4-5 round region.
BEST OF THE REST
Ian Murphy
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: St John’s
Murphy had an impressive freshman campaign in 2019 but hasn’t been able to build on that initial success. He’s a physical pitcher with a starter’s type body and frame at 6’3/225. Shows clean, easy movements and uses his lower half well. He’s dealt with injuries over the past couple of years and is currently recovering from offseason surgery. He’s expected to be ready for opening day. It’s a three pitch mix with a fastball up to 96 MPH, sitting 92-94. The fastball has life and hop out of the hand. Murphy has an advanced slider that he can manipulate. The slider command will outpace fastball command at times. It’s a swing and miss pitch at it’s best, but it lacks consistency. He’ll also throw a slurvy version that presents a different look. The changeup is mostly used against lefties. It’s a clear third weapon but flashes solid average. With further usage, Murphy’s overall feel and ability to sell it should improve. Murphy has middle of day 2 potential with a healthy, bounceback season in the St. John’s weekend rotation.
Gavin Van Kempen
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: Maple Hill (NY)
Commitment: West Virginia
The next two pitchers both had quality showings at WWBA in October and are attractive follows for the 2022 spring. Gavin Van Kempen has plus level projection with a large and long frame at 6’6/215. He’s starting to fill out his well-proportioned body and has plenty of room to grow. Van Kempen uses his size and long legs to create a heavy downhill plane towards the plate. It’s a loose and easy arm from a ¾ to high ¾ slot with smoothness in the delivery. Van Kempen’s fastball velocity has shown steady growth the past several months. He topped out at 93 MPH in Jupiter and averaged about 90 MPH for 3 innings of work. He fills the zone with a high percentage of strikes with the potential for solid command moving forward. It’s a low spin fastball that should work down in the zone as it plays heavy with arm side run. The velocity comes easy and it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if he started hitting the 95-96 MPH range in the near future. His best secondary has been a mid 70s changeup that shows swing and miss potential. The pitch almost looks like a splitter with it’s late depth and diving action. Surprisingly, he didn’t use the changeup at all during his WWBA outing. Van Kempen went to a low spin, high 70s slider that he showed feel for. The pitch is fringy currently, but has some late horizontal tilt and could play average with more usage. Van Kempen is young for the class and already shows some feel and command for a three pitch mix. His size, age, and projectability should garner plenty of scouting interest this spring. We’ll see if Van Kempen has any more in the tank before draft day.
Eliakim Stowe
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: Millbrook (NY)
Commitment: Maryland
Stowe fired off 3 hitless innings at WWBA with 3 strikeouts. He has an ideal pitcher’s frame at 6’3/215 with room for more strength. Stowe throws from a higher than ¾ arm slot with a short, quick arm action. Stowe works straight to the plate with good extension from a low-ish release height. The ball shows some hop out of the hand and he releases with moderate effort. He’ll run his fastball up to 93 MPH and his velocity has been ticking up during the summer and fall. The arm slot and deception in his delivery allows the pitch to play above its velocity at times. Stowe will need to improve the control and command of his fastball as it’s been scattered during the showcase circuit (he walked 2 batters in Jupiter). The go-to weapon for Stowe is his upper 70s/low 80s slider. It's a high spin pitch (2,700+ RPM) with tight break and two plane depth. The slider can be a wipeout pitch and it shows plus potential. Stowe has flashed a changeup that can show arm side fade. It’s a distant third pitch but there’s potential moving forward. Stowe’s stuff is ticking up rapidly and he already has a difference maker with his slider. He’ll need to improve the consistency of his mechanics and strike throwing moving forward, but it’s an enticing package of tools. Like Van Kempen, Stowe will be closely watched this spring and has some breakout potential.
DEEP SLEEPERS
Aidan Teel
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher/Shortstop
School: Mahwah (NJ)
Commitment: Virginia
Younger brother of UVA catcher/outfielder Kyle Teel. Aidan recently reclassified and is set to join Kyle in Virginia for the 2023 spring. Has an undersized but strong and athletic build that is similar to his brother's. Two-way player who saw a velocity boost (up to 93 MPH) at WWBA this October. Raw pitcher but loose and quick arm with a compact motion. Flashes a quality slider with tight spin and short two plane break. Trending upward on the mound and could surprise this spring. Brother Kyle pulled himself out of the 2020 draft and I would not be surprised if Aidan follows suit as draft day draws near.
Donovan Zsak
Position:Left-Handed Pitcher
School:St Joseph-Metuchen (NJ)
Commitment: Virginia
Promising lefty who was into the low 90s and up to 92 MPH with a quality curveball during the summer following his sophomore year of high school. Zsak had Tommy John surgery late in the summer of 2020, causing him to miss all of the 2021 season. He’ll be well over a year from his TJ date and should be back up to speed early this spring. He compared favorably to Zach Crotchfelt and Kyle McCoy prior to surgery. Zsak has pop up potential as an under-the-radar lefty if he can get back to form during his senior year. Great piece on Donovan’s road to recovery HERE.
Kevin Jaxel
Position: Right-Handed Pitcher
School: Don Bosco Prep (NJ)
Commitment: Virginia
Teammate of Caden Dana at Don Bosco. Jaxel left a late May start with an undisclosed injury and then was absent during the summer showcase season. Jaxel is a large, projectable righty at 6’4/210 with a low 90s fastball, promising curveball, and a useful changeup. He had a strong spring and looked ready to make a name for himself this summer. We’ll have to see if and when Jaxel is able to take the mound this spring as he gears up for his final high school season.
Others Pitchers of Note:
Cam Leiter, RHP, Central Regional (NJ)- nephew of Al Leiter. Projectable w/ a quick arm. Up to 92 w/ feel for a curveball and changeup. UCF commit.
Cole Chudoba, RHP, Connecticut- DII grad transfer. FB up to 95. 2.08 ERA in 21.2 IP w/ 17 K:2 BB on the Cape.
Greg Farone, LHP, Herkimer CC- Big, strong 6’6/230 lefty. FB up to 93 with solid pitch data.
Matt Scott, RHP, Joel Barlow (CT)- Athletic, XL frame. Easy low 90s FB with a potential swing and miss slider. Stanford commit.
Carlos Gonzalez, RHP, Inwood Academy (NY)- physical righty. FB up to 95 with high spin and vertical break above 20 inches. Washington State commit.
Jayson Hoopes, RHP, Rutgers- Virginia transfer. Oft-injured but high ceiling reliever. Flashes high 90s velocity and a projectable power curve.
Jason Diaz, RHP, St. John's- juco transfer. FB up to 96 this summer. Power reliever potential.
Michael Kennedy, LHP, Troy (NY)- projectable lefty with a low 90s fastball and a 3 pitch mix. Breakout potential. LSU commit.