Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between unexpected struggles from a high-end young pitcher, the rise of an offensive superstar, and sinker-ballers discovering new ways to get whiffs, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
Zac Gallen Is Struggling, But Not In The Way You May Think
With a 2.78 ERA and 3.64 FIP over the first 152 innings pitched of his career, Zac Gallen was seen as one of the premier young pitchers in the sport. Thus, many are disappointed to see him post a 5.03 ERA and 4.71 FIP in 73.1 innings this season. What is his outlook looking like moving forward? I have good news and bad news.
Let’s start with the good news. Gallen’s high ERA and FIP can best be explained by an 18.6% HR/FB rate, while some of his other peripherals (4.16 SIERA) don’t back up such a high ERA. He’s still posting similar K-BB ratios to what he’s had to previous seasons, and the same can be said about his other peripheral statistics.
Yet, I’m not sure those peripheral statistics hold. Gallen may be striking batters out currently, yet his swing strike rate (9.4%) is almost 3% lower than his previous norm. Meanwhile, he’s getting less chases (25.2%) than ever, missing bats in the zone (17.3%) at a below-average rate, while hitters are swinging in the zone (62.8%) and in “meatball” locations (79.4%). In other words, what other deception he had previously has gone away, and it’s causing him to miss less bats.
If Gallen doesn’t start inducing more whiffs, he risks seeing his strikeout numbers go down. So, what is causing this? It appears to stem from a shift in location strategy. His fastball, changeup, and curveball have all seen their respective average pitch heights decrease, which is problematic. Not threatening to elevate your fastball will lead to less chases, while burying the off-speed pitchers too much can be an issue. Most of all, though, if hitters only have to focus on a certain area of the zone, it is much easier to make swing decisions.
It is weird to analyze Gallen moving forward because it’s not an ability issue with him. Rather, it’s a specific strategy that isn’t currently working. I’d be okay selling him to someone who looks at his ERA estimators and believes this is 100% just bad luck. His ERA and FIP will come down over time, yet that is also contingent on his strikeout numbers remaining strong, and I’m skeptical that will happen. At that point, his value could decrease further. At the very least, if he doesn’t get become to a more unpredictable approach, we have to be concerned about his ability to miss bats the way he know he’s capable of doing.
Pete Alonso Is Quietly Re-Emerging As a Offensive Star
When you break the rookie home run record, as Pete Alonso did in 2019, you’re going to be expected to continuously be one of the game’s elite sluggers for the foreseeable future. When Alonso regressed from a 143 wRC+ to 118 wRC+, though, that hype started to fade.
On the surface level, Alonso’s 122 wRC+ would suggest that he’s closer to his 2020 self than 2019. I, however, would disagree with that notion. First, Alonso’s 15.2% barrel rate is almost right in line (15.8%) with where it was in 2019, and the same can be said about all of his batted-ball numbers. The main difference lies with his home run/fly ball rate (18.6%), which is much lower than it was previously. Could that be because of the new baseball? Perhaps, but that doesn’t explain a near 13% decrease. The BAT X projects a .271 ISO the rest of the year, which would be rather fair.
There is more to this, though. Take a glance at some of Alonso’s plate discipline statistics over the first three years of his career:
2019: 28.1% Whiff, 32% Chase, 67.3% Zone Swing, 27.7% Called-Strike + Whiff Rate (CSW%)
2020: 30.4% Whiff, 30.5% Chase, 65.3% Zone Swing, 28.2% CSW
2021: 24.4% Whiff, 30.1% Chase, 70.8% Zone Swing, 25% CSW
More contact than ever, better swing decisions; this is all quite encouraging for Alonso. Therefore, it isn’t a surprise to see his strikeout rate down to 20.2% this year. The power remains fantastic, and now the rest of his offensive profile is coming together. While his overall statistics aren’t dominant, buy now before it is too late.
Sinker-Ballers Missing More Bats: Marcus Stroman and Marco Gonzales
Heading into the year, Marcus Stroman and Marco Gonzales were seen in a similar spectrum: innings-eaters who could induce ground balls, limit walks, but wouldn’t strike a lot of hitters out. While both have had much different seasons up to this point, they both are making interesting tweaks with their pitch usage that may allow them to be more effective in the future.
Stroman currently boasts a 2.78 ERA this season, which might not be 100% due to his skills; his .284 BABIP allowed and career-low 12% home-run/fly ball rate are clear signs he’s benefitting from playing behind an elite defense in a favorable ballpark. Yet, he’s also become a better pitcher. The 30-year-old’s 11.8% swinging strike rate is a career-high, while he’s not walking (5.8% BB) hitters and still inducing ground balls at a 50.4% rate. While that’s less ground balls than usual, it’s worth the extra whiffs
A key change for Stroman this year? Adopting a splitter that has a 32.9% whiff is a start, but his cutter has also been significantly more effective with a .242 wOBA allowed and 31.9% whiff (24.8% whiff 2019). Meanwhile, this would not appear to be a coincidence. Stroman is throwing the cutter 1 MPH slower this year, allowing it to get more vertical drop and be a pitch he can feature often again lefties instead of his slider.
It has been a rough year for Gonzales, who has a 5.19 FIP this season. On the bright side, the 29-year-old might finally be putting it together. In his past three starts, he has posted a 23.4% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate, and has worked at least 6 innings in each of them. Furthermore, this aligns with a shift in strategy. The Mariners’ lefty has bumped his sinker rate to 58.2%, and he’s doing so much more at the top of the zone (2.97 ft. vertical location). This has correlated with a 27% whiff rate and more success throwing that pitch, which is encouraging. I don’t know if this continues, but seeing Gonzales try something to get back on track, and have success with it, adds intrigue to his profile moving forward.
What do we do with this information? With Stroman, this does a few things. There could be more strikeouts for him in the future. At the very least, he is likely to be less reliant on his situation moving forward, critical for a pending free agent. As for Gonzales, this strategy may not work out long-term, but it might be worth buying low on him if your trade deadline hasn’t passed. It will be interesting to see how these pitchers continue to become the best versions of themselves possible!
Random Relievers Of The Week
For this week’s edition of random relievers of the week, let’s have some fun. These are two pitchers who are currently mainly relievers that could become starting pitchers, or may just add fantasy value as multi-inning relievers. Confused? Let’s just get right into it.
Starting in the South Side, remember Reynaldo Lopez? Once a premier pitching prospect, he’s struggled to stick as a starter in his early career. However, in 20 innings pitched this season, mainly out of the bullpen, he’s doing some interesting things. His strikeout rate is up to 30.1%, his walk rate is down to 6.8%, and the fastball has become a much better offering. Why? It’s up 1.5 MPH (to 95.7 MPH) pitching in shorter stints, allowing to miss bats (28% whiff) at a rate he normally couldn’t. With this mainly being a velocity increase, I’m not sure Lopez ever goes back to being a true starting pitcher, but he’ll be an underrated asset as a reliever with starter/reliever positional flexibility.
Now, onto Hollywood. 26-year-old Mitch White has made a few spot starts for the Dodgers, but has mainly filled in out of the bullpen. The results (23.6% K, 10.6% BB) aren’t as great in 28 innings pitched as Lopez, yet he’s still an intriguing arm moving forward. His 94.9 MPH four-seam fastball features plus (1.4 more than his starter average) vertical movement, while he also features a vertical curveball with a horizontal slider. With improved command (more elevated fastballs, breaking balls buried more), there’s a chance it all comes together as a versatile weapon for the Dodgers. Hey, it certainly wouldn’t be their first success story!
Other Notes
Congratulations to Triston McKenzie on 7.2 perfect innings against the Tigers on Sunday! We covered McKenzie’s success since being called back up to the MLB in July in more depth in a previous edition of the dynasty notes, but simply put: his fastball velocity is up, allowing for him to have more confidence throwing it in the zone. As long as the velocity holds, there’s a lot of reason to believe he’ll continue to make good on his former prospect pedigree.
Speaking of velocity, Sean Manaea has now seen his sinker sit below 92 MPH in back-to-back outings, leading to some noticeable struggles. Since increased velocity was a major reason for his success, it’s worth monitoring this moving forward.
Harold Ramirez was seen as an interesting under-the-radar outfielder for Cleveland and fantasy teams, showing the ability to hit for average with power and speed. Unfortunately, since the start of July, he has a 63 wRC+, 12.7% swinging strike rate, and just a 5.7% barrel rate. With him continuing to see fewer fastballs, it looks like pitchers have adapted to how to take advantage of his poor plate discipline (40.2% chase). Sadly, it’s looking like this will continue to be the theme moving forward; I’d be comfortable cutting bait with Ramirez in most formats.
Nestor Cortes is only 26-years-old and has a 3.26 FIP in 49.1 innings pitched for the Yankees this season. Still, I’d be slightly skeptical of his outlook moving forward. His strikeout and walk numbers (26.6% K, 7% BB) are strong, but the strikeout rate is down to 20.8% as a starter, while he hasn’t been asked to work in deep in games. Meanwhile, I’d be skeptical about his abilities to continue to limit barrels as a vertical pitcher moving forward, especially as different teams get to see him multiple times. I definitely believe he’ll continue to be a very useful weapon for New York, though perhaps not someone who is greatly impacting your fantasy team