With the 2021 MLB Draft firmly in the rearview mirror, it’s time to truly dive into next years class and what we’re working with. We’re deep enough into the summer now where we’ve seen the high school ranks in a number of different showcase events. Whether we’re talking about the Perfect Game National Showcase, MLB Player Development Pipeline, or the most recent Area Code Games, players have put together sample sizes large enough that we can begin putting together reports on what a player is and isn’t.
On the college side, the Cape Cod League has now concluded, as well as several other summer wood bat leagues. While the 2022 spring college baseball season will be the ultimate determinant for most of these players, the “Cape” has always been a launching pad for the following years draft class.
Prospects Live has been well-represented this summer. We had two evaluators on the Cape, three evaluators at the Perfect Game National Showcase, and two evaluators at Area Code Games.
With that said, let’s dive in. Ya’ll provided so many excellent questions. Keep them coming in the future.
There were so many Elijah Green questions in this crop that I’ll try to answer the narrative as best I can in one fell swoop.
Let’s start with just how talented Green is because I think that sets the table. Physically, Green is one of the most tooled-up players we’ve ever seen. His scouting report is smattered with 70s and 80s. It’s plus-plus raw power with plus-plus run times. He’s got at least a plus-plus arm in the outfield and he plays a very strong outfield as well. The pure hit tool is about the only question scouts still have on Green. He’s exhibited some swing-and-miss over the summer, but not so much that it’s deflated any of his helium. World Wood Bat Championships, as well as his spring season in 2022 will be important.
As for where he fits in the 2022 draft, he’s certainly in the conversation for the no. 1 overall pick, but personally, I wouldn’t call any one player the “favorite” to go first overall right now. Even if the narrative currently suggests he’s the guy, keep in mind over the last several years, the presumptive favorite to go first overall hasn’t taken the title wire-to-wire.
Sunday’s Perfect Game All-American Classic is always one of the brighter spectacles for draft talent each summer and this year will be no different. There’s a ton of guys in this years game that have a chance to go on day one next summer. Green, Termarr Johnson and Dylan Lesko are all fantastic candidates. Others to keep on who are currently inside the Prospects Live Top 25 include right-handed pitchers Brock Porter and Ian Ritchie Jr., as well as left-handed pitchers Tristan Smith and Brandon Barriera. On the position player side, we like infielders Cole Young, Cam Collier and Jayson Jones, as well as legacy outfielder Druw Jones Jr.
Truth be told there are countless other players who could ascend into day one and this is only a small snippet. Watch out for southpaws Jackson Ferris and Noah Schultz.
I can’t stress enough that it is super early. We’re going off the 2021 season, as well as the this summer’s Cape Cod League. Our preliminary ranks our built off game production, film study, as well as batted-ball and athletic testing. For now, this is where my current ranks stand. As a team, we will be pushing out a Top 150 in the coming weeks. Keep an eye out for that.
Carter Young, Vanderbilt
Brooks Lee, Cal Poly
Zach Neto, Campbell
Josh Rivera, Florida
Jordan Sprinkle, UC-Santa Barbara
Alex Freeland, Central Florida
Eric Brown, Coastal Carolina
Josh Kasevich, Oregon
Michael Curialle, UCLA
Ryan Ritter, Kentucky
Keep in mind, some of these guys will eventually be considered second basemen and third baseman, but for the time being, we have them designated as shortstops in our ranks.
This is a good question. I think you’d get several different answers if you asked industry personnel right now. That wasn’t the case last year.
Personally, at this time, I’d call high school pitching the biggest strength of this class. As things currently stand, we have four right-handed pitchers (Lesko, Porter, Ritchie, Andrew Dutkanych) ranked inside our Top 35, and three lefties (Smith, Barriera, Ferris) inside that same range. That’s seven prep arms at the top of our radar, with three or four more on the periphery for day one as well.
As far as where this class is thin, right now it would appear that might be on the college pitching side. For now, our team only has six college pitchers ranked inside the Top 35, though none of those guys are in our Top 15. Now, this will undoubtedly change as guys log more innings and some arms pop up in the spring, but it doesn’t look like a year that’s going to be quite so special on the college bump.
Got a few questions like this regarding Jud Fabian and Kumar Rocker, so I’ll tackle both.
Let’s start with Fabian. As things currently stand, I’ve got a late first round grade on him, but much of that is projecting some of the swing-and-miss concerns dissipating in 2022. He was better toward the latter half of 2021, and he’ll need to carry that over into 2022 if he hopes to reach his draft ceiling. We’re still talking about a centerfielder with plus raw power and at least above average speed. If Fabian can display the power he showed in 2021 while getting that K-rate under, say, 22 percent, he’ll be in a lot better position come July 2022. He’ll still only be 21 years old for this years draft.
Rocker is a bit more complicated. He’ll either be training independently or taking his talent to independent ball next year. That, coupled with Rocker’s reported health concerns following his physical with the Mets, will make evaluating him a little more tricky than in a normal year. He’s every bit the talent of a first round pick with a workhorse body. I trust he’ll put himself in a position to go early in 2022. Look for an initial Rocker rank on our Top 150 coming soon.