MLB Draft Live Looks Week 8 - Southern California and New York

In this edition of MLB Draft Live looks, Brandon Smith and Jackson Thomas went out and saw front-line 2022 draft talent including big pop-up prospects at the high school and college level.

RHP RILEY KELLY, TUSTIN HS

Seen: 4/13

Riley Kelly a UCI commit out of Tustin High School has been a sudden pop-up pitcher for the upcoming draft. What fueled the pop-up hype was reports that his fastball was up to 92-94 on a consistent basis. However, during this outing, he was predominantly 88-90 and hit 91 only once. Additionally, his fastball came off rather pedestrian in shape and life, consistently coming in straight with occasional arm side life. Regardless of Kelly’s fastball, there was plenty of intriguing projectability and skillset that hold merit to him being a pop-up guy. Kelly has a large projectable frame with long limbs and a slender build, boding well for future added muscle and strength. He works downhill with his delivery with little bend and flexibility coming from tightly wound hips, forcing him to pitch from an upright stance with little leg drive. Kelly repeats his short arm action well with good arm speed, a snappy finish, and solid extension. The biggest takeaway from Kelly’s outing was that he can spin the breaking ball, which was a large part of his 17 K performance. The curveball projects as a future 55/60 pitch with tight spin and big 11/5 shape that was consistently landed for a strike in any count at 77-80 MPH. All in all, it is easy to see all the projection that Kelly has as a pitching prospect. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him taken on late Day 2 of the draft but I believe that he could see his development skyrocket by going to UCI. 

- Jackson Thomas

RHP DREW THORPE, CAL POLY SLO

Seen: 4/14

Performance: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 9 K, 2 BB, 33.98% CSW

Cal Poly’s Drew Thorpe, #93 on @ProspectsLive 2022 Draft Board, is through 2 IP with 3 Ks and has given up 1 R on 1 H. The change up is showing out with late bite and has 3 whiffs so far. Heavy CH usage early on pic.twitter.com/plMOS9w7yv

— Jackson Thomas (@BaseballByJT) April 15, 2022

Drew Thorpe continued his dominant season with a good outing against the UCI Anteaters. Thrope has generated a lot of buzz in California for his consistent performance, projectability, and ability to throw 3+ pitches for strikes. He repeats his delivery well showing lots of athleticism to drive down the bump and push out over his chest. His arm action overall was very clean and smooth, coming from a small tight circle path to a high 3/4 release. The Mustangs’ ace leaned heavily on his change-up all night, arguably his best pitch with flashes of plus. The changeup moves with late lateral fade, falling off as soon as it gets near home plate, sitting 78-81 MPH. His changeup had a 50% whiff rate on the outing and Thorpe demonstrated high confidence in using that weapon in any count. Thrope’s fastball topped out at 93 and was mainly in the 89-91 range as the night progressed. He showed the ability to command his fastball and all edges of the zone, using its sinking profile to his advantage. Thrope’s slider was used as his third pitch and generated its share of whiffs, coming in with a tight and short 10/4 break at 79-81 MPH. A common theme for Thorpe on his outing was that he consistently battled from behind in counts to generate outs, which is great to see he can compete even without having his best stuff. 

- Jackson Thomas

SS BROOKS LEE, CAL POLY SLO

Seen: 4/14, 4/15

Performance: 2-7, 1 RBI, 1 K, 2 BB, 1 SB

Arguably the top college draft prospect for the 2022 class had a relatively quiet two games in my looks, only getting two hits, with one being an IF single. Regardless it’s apparent to see why Lee is a projected top 5 pick. Lee has a maxed-out build with tree trunk legs and a strong upper half. He is able to fully integrate his body into his swing, fully complimenting his great bat speed and above-average bat-to-ball skills. When running out of the box Lee showed good acceleration down the baseline but didn’t reach a top line speed that was anything to write home about. Lee made a good read on a breaking ball to get a stolen base with ease on Friday’s game, once again showing high-level intangibles and baseball intellect on the diamond.. I will question how long Lee can stay at SS considering his range seemed limited to his right side on a couple of ground balls that snuck through with slow and choppy footwork. However, Lee has the ideal makeup for a pro player as he consistently plays with high levels of poise, leadership, and confidence on the diamond.

- Jackson Thomas

RHP NOLAN DEVOS, DAVIDSON

Seen: 4/15

Performance: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K 

DeVos has been somewhat of a popup prospect this spring for Davidson after he was a walk-on his freshman year. He consistently has been one of the nations leaders in strikeouts throughout the spring season. This is due to his above average fastball/slider mix which generates whiffs in all quadrants of the zone. DeVos has a deceptive operation that analytically driven teams covet, as he releases from a lower release height and still creates lift on his four seam fastball up in the zone. This was displayed during his outing as he was able to attack Bonaventure hitters up in the zone and generated whiffs. His fastball sat in the 89-92 range, which is a couple of ticks down from earlier in the year when he would sit in the mid 90s. It is important to note that he has been primarily used as a reliever during his collegiate career and the additional workload may be a factor for the slight decrease in velocity. Additionally, he had to battle suboptimal weather conditions as there were 40mph winds as well as precipitation factored in with below 40 degree weather.  He showed excellent command of his sweeping slider which darted away from right handed hitters and was not afraid to triple up on the offering. He also dropped in a couple of curveballs or “dumpers” early in counts to work ahead of hitters, as well as flashing a changeup to left-hand hitters. The only blemish on his line came when he left a fastball up over the heart of the plate to a right handed hitter who was able to get on plane and drive the pitch over the left field wall. Despite the long ball, he rebounded nicely to strikeout the next two batters he faced. DeVos worked from a very quick tempo on the hill and was very efficient with his pitches as he made quick use of hitters and rarely worked deep counts. There is a lot to like in the analytical profile with DeVos and if he can show that he can gain back some of his velocity, he figures to hear his name called in the 8-10 round range. 

- Brandon Smith

CF PARKER NOLAN, DAVIDSON

Seen: 4/15

Performance: 2-5, 1 HR, 1 1B, 1 K

Nolan is a toolsy outfielder and will be a name to monitor late on day three. Despite being a four year player, Nolan’s game still is raw.  Standing in at 6’4, he showed his defense, speed, and power tools . He gets great reads off the bat in centerfield and uses his speed to track down fly balls in the gaps as he has great closing speed. He showed the power tool when he unloaded on a go-ahead three run homerun in his final at-bat that he blasted to his pull side.  There are questions surrounding his bat to ball skills and whether or not he will make enough contact to ascend through a minor league system. Nonetheless, the raw skills and athleticism Nolan possesses would make him an interesting prospect if an organization feels that they can develop his raw skill set into more polished tools. 

- Brandon Smith

C MICHAEL CARICO (2023), DAVIDSON

Seen: 4/15

Performance: 1-3, 1 1B, 2 BB 

Never too early to look ahead to the 2023 class and Davidson appears to have a name to follow in Michael Carico. The left-hand hitting catcher is very poised in the box. Carico demonstrates advanced feel for the strike and recognizes spin well. This is reflective in his swing decisions and in his walk rate.  A byproduct of his selective approach at the plate is his ability to punish pitches in the zone. He has a quiet load as works into his backside and has a quick bat path which allows him to barrel pitches. He showed power to all fields during his pregame batting practice and has hit homers to all fields in game. Carico is an athletic catcher who moves well behind the plate. There is still plenty of projection remaining in his game with his hit and power tool grading out well above average.

- Brandon Smith