Our second mock draft of the year starts college heavy and includes Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana and others at the top.
2024 Pre-Season Top 100 Prospects Led by SS Jackson Holliday
Introducing the pSTFERA Suite - a new set of predictive ERA-estimators based on the Stuff of a given pitch, put on an ERA scale.
Hitting: 3-11, 1 HR, 1 2B, 2 BB, 5 K
Pitching: 3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 6 BB, 4 K
Jac Caglianone has taken over the college baseball landscape this season, becoming an amateur Shohei Ohtani clone. The two-way prowess has been rather impressive to watch, though there are some things I wanted to hone in on with him over the weekend. Could these be hot takes? I don’t know, but here’s my honest opinion on Caglianone: he’s electric, but there’s work to be done.
As a bat, you’re looking at some of the biggest raw power in the country. The bat and hand speed that Caglianone possesses is otherworldly and presently, he leads the country in home runs with twenty-three. His latest home run wasn’t a cheap one, murdering an 81 MPH breaking ball on the outer halfway over the right field fence, coming very close to leaving the stadium. Leaving the bat at 108 MPH, it would ultimately land 412 feet away. He’d add on a single and a double, and while it’s legitimate double plus power, I do have some reservations about the hit tool. He can get rather aggressive at the plate and shows trouble with off-speed. Will Sanders welcomed Caglianone to Columbia with three sliders, all of which Caglianone whiffed on. He’s in no rush to walk either, as he only has nine on the year. Defensively, he’s limited to first base and while he could see some time in the outfield to test his versatility, there’s gonna be pressure on the bat to perform.
Things you don't do with Jac Caglianone in the box: hang a breaking ball.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 22, 2023
The distance on this HR was 412 feet, but I'm not sure it ever landed. The ball left the bat at 108 MPH and the bat/hand speed is on full display here. Legit 70 juice.
Oh, btw, he's on the bump today. pic.twitter.com/cqM1PLjGsp
On the mound, it can get rather rough to watch. He labored through a lengthy first inning, allowing a home run to Braylen Wimmer and walking two more batters before the inning ended. He’d ultimately walk six batters in the span of three innings. It’s a reliever-ish look for him, as he can struggle to repeat his mechanics and his fastball command is rather pedestrian at best. He did hold consistent 93-96 MPH velocity, as well as a solid low-mid 80's slider with tight spin and a quality change-up with great separation and diving action, but the strike-throwing, or lack thereof, is slightly concerning.
He’s going to be a polarizing prospect in next year's cycle, not because of the two-way ability, but because of the rawness he has and whether or not he can find the polish that Vance Honeycutt and others have. If he manages to do that and performs admirably in the SEC in 2024, you’re likely looking at the 1.1 pick. If not, you might be looking at someone who’s defensively limited and aggressive at the plate, as well as a potential reliever down the line. Would you take that over a legitimate center fielder with a revamped approach in Honeycutt? That’s the real question and we can dive into that further later on. For now, though, we can sit back and enjoy the season he’s having and hope the polish comes around.
Final Line: 6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 10 K
Hurston Waldrep’s stuff is rather loud. The former Southern Mississippi arm has always had a robust arsenal, though the results just have not been there this year. Maybe I’m overthinking it because it’s the SEC, but he’s really struggled to open ballgames and last Friday was no different.
Hurston Waldrep's off-speed stuff is just bonkers.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 22, 2023
FB has been 94-96 T98 w/ cut-ride. Pitching off CB and SL a lot, SL high-80's w/ sweep and big 12-6 bender at 82-84. Flashing super-low spin splitter in high-80's. Retired nine straight at one point tonight. pic.twitter.com/hJ4dvwbGwI
Over the first two innings, Waldrep would primarily lead off at-bats with the fastball. The result? Five earned runs, including a three-run home run to Ethan Petry on a hanging 88 MPH splitter in the second inning. After that? Waldrep would retire the next ten batters straight before a leadoff walk in the sixth inning, primarily pitching backwards with his off-speed arsenal. The fastball features cutting action with some ride in the mid-90’s, touching 97 MPH early, though the command was scattered at times and it felt very hittable. The curveball was utilized often to steal strikes early in counts, sitting in the low-80’s consistently with big downer shape and he’d primarily pitch off his high-80’s slider that featured sweep and high spin. His splitter, which is one of the best pitches in this year’s class, lacked some feel and he didn’t utilize it much, though when snapped off properly, it featured very low spin and dropped off a cliff.
The main question with Waldrep is whether or not scouts see him as a starter long-term. He’s highly athletic with an over-the-top arm slot, but the delivery has a good amount of effort and the command, particularly with the fastball, draws some concern. He’ll need to utilize a more consistent fastball shape, too, as the pitch is subject to being lit up when down in the zone and he showed some struggles elevating the pitch early in his outing. He’s still a projected first-round pick, though he’s going to be a bit of a project for a big-league team.
Final Line: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 8 K
Brandon Sproat is a bit of an interesting case to dive into. He was selected in the third round of the 2022 MLB Draft by the New York Mets, but opted not to sign and returned to campus to be Florida’s new Friday starter. He’s shown glimpses of brilliance on the mound this year, including a complete game shutout against Alabama last month, though while he has seen an uptick in velocity across the board with his stuff, I wonder if he’ll ultimately end up in the bullpen.
.@GatorsBB's Brandon Sproat has some loud stuff.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 21, 2023
FB has touched 100 tonight, sitting 95-99 with big running life. CH at 88-91 has serious sinking life to lefties, showing off gyro SL in same velo band to righties. Flashing low-80's CB. Command is erratic, however. pic.twitter.com/o03VA47iCL
His start on Thursday was a mixed bag of sorts. He primarily lived off a lively fastball/change-up combo, sprinkling in a slider at the start before resorting to a curveball in the third and fourth innings. The fastball touched 100 MPH on the first pitch and he primarily lived in the 94-98 MPH range throughout the night, but the pitch’s shape and inconsistent command hamper it. It’s more of a running two-seamer than a riding four-seamer and won’t miss a ton of bats, plus the lack of strikes with the pitch is concerning. His best off-speed is the aforementioned change-up, which features great separation and he’s confident enough to throw it in any count. It lives in the 88-91 MPH range and dives hard to the dirt, garnering plenty of empty swings. The slider is more of a gyro pitch, showcasing decent depth with a little horizontal movement in the high-80’s, though at times, he did hang the pitch, which led to a home run in the first inning by Ethan Petry (he’s really good at this baseball thing, by the way). The curveball was primarily used to steal strikes to open at-bats later on in the low-80’s with solid depth and some sweep.
There’s athleticism in the delivery, which features a very long arm swing into a three-quarters arm slot, though there’s some effort in the operation. That, mixed with inconsistent command, does hint at a potential relief role down the line. However, he’s likely going to start off as a starter in the minor leagues until he’s forced into a bullpen role. It’ll be interesting to see if he manages to go higher than his 2022 selection and sneak his way into Day 1 conversations.
Final Line: 2-11, 2 BB, 3 K
Langford has long been one of my favorite players in this class. While his CNT trials didn’t result in a ton of hits, he impressed me enough in that week to solidify himself in my personal top five, so it was paramount to see him again this spring. While it wasn’t the weekend he wanted, he still showed off why he has legitimate five-tool potential.
Wyatt Langford is a line drive machine.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 21, 2023
Bit of a slow start offensively tonight, but got on the board with this line drive single (98 MPH EV) after a lengthy AB. Tons of bat speed and he's a physical freak, plus he can absolutely haul down the line. Pot. Top 5 pick this year. pic.twitter.com/uq4Fz5sl3u
His BP was rather fun to sit down and watch, spraying line drives across the field. There’s legitimate bat speed in his swing and his power plays to all fields, even though he hasn’t replicated his 2022 power performance. He’s showing off more patience at the plate, as well. On the year, he’s garnered 37 walks and just 21 strikeouts, though there is an issue of being too selective and letting opposing arms get to their weapons deeper into counts. He’s a physical freak, as well. It’s a muscular build at 6’1, 220 pounds, but don’t let the size fool you, this is a player that can absolutely fly. He’s recorded plus run times in the past and books it down the line on ground balls, and if it weren’t for a fringe-average arm in the outfield, he’d likely be manning center field over Michael Robertson thanks to his speed. The arm will need to improve at the next level.
He did miss a little over two weeks from a pretty brutal lower-half injury, though he returned much earlier than expected and is still performing at a phenomenal clip. This is a profile that will find itself inside the top five, there’s very little doubt about that. Logistics will figure itself out as we get closer to draft day, but the upside is immense and he could be on a fast track to the majors if all goes well.
Final Line: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 K
We’ve written about Will Sanders and Jack Mahoney plenty this month, so why not talk about South Carolina’s new Sunday starter, Matthew Becker. The southpaw is destined to be one of the top lefties in next year’s class.
Becker made a loud impression as a freshman, throwing six innings of one-hit ball against the top team in the country, the Texas Longhorns, striking out eleven in the process. While Sunday was not a replication of that Texas start, Becker only allowed two hits across five innings of work, striking out six and walking just one. The lone blemishes in his outing were two opposite field jacks to Cade Kurland, both of which coming off fastballs. Becker throws two different heaters, a sinker in the lower half of the zone and a four-seam with significant carry up in the zone. He’s added a bit more velocity, sitting more in the 90-92 MPH range with the four-seam and 89-91 MPH with the sinker. He has two excellent breaking balls with distinct shapes, a high-70’s curveball and a low-80’s slider, both of which have high spin numbers and big break. He began utilizing a low-80’s change-up with fade later on in the outing, primarily against righties.
Command was the biggest issue with Becker as a freshman and he’s improved a bit as a sophomore, but his fastball command can be fringy at times. He’ll need to add more velocity and improve the command a bit more to solidify himself as a potential Day 1 arm in next year’s draft, but the mold is definitely there and he’s in a great place to work on it with pitching coach Justin Parker. He and Eli Jerzembeck have the potential to be a very nasty 1-2 punch in the SEC in 2024.
Final Line: 1.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 2 K
The combination of loud stuff and personality is something that doesn’t show up all that often in college baseball. Enter Teddy Sharkey, Coastal Carolina’s psycho closer.
Teddy Sharkey: American Psycho.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 23, 2023
Sharkey has some of the best pure stuff in the country. FB was 93-97 today with ride and can bore it in on righties. High-80's SL and low-80's CB are dynamic breakers. Command wavered in his 2nd inning. One of the best relief arms in this class. pic.twitter.com/6phFj7EnVr
Sharkey has a stockier build on the mound with some physicality present, coming in at 5’11, 200 pounds. It’s a high effort delivery with a higher arm slot, but man, the stuff is loud. The fastball has plenty of carry and got up to 97 MPH, sitting 93-96 MPH later on in his outing with command that began to waver a bit. He has two distinct breaking balls that are both potential plus pitches. The slider sits in the 85-88 MPH range with sharp two-plane break that, when commanded away from righties, can be lethal. The curveball has the potential to be a legitimate hammer, a low-80’s offering with significant depth and some sweep. He looked the part of a high-leverage reliever in his first inning, snaking his way out of a bases-loaded jam with two strikeouts. However, after getting two quick outs in his second inning, it became clear that he was tired and he had a meltdown with two outs, though his defense did not help him much. All five runs he allowed were unearned as a result.
While Coastal Carolina has stretched him out in recent outings, Sharkey is suited more for shorter outings and he projects as a potential high-leverage reliever at the next level. There are some things that will need to be shored up in the minor leagues, mainly his command, but this is an arm that could fly to the majors if everything comes together. He’s expected to be one of the first true relievers off the board in July.
Final Line: 3-5, 1 HR, 2 R
Etzel was a highly touted JUCO bat coming into the year and while Southern Mississippi has had its fair share of trouble, Etzel has been a big bright spot out of the leadoff spot.
Southern Miss' leadoff guy Matthew Etzel impressed today. Hit a leadoff HR to start off another three hit day. Simple swing suited for line drives, very quick runner and glides in CF. Former JUCO bandit. pic.twitter.com/yrpNEhx17S
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 23, 2023
Everything works easily for Etzel at the plate. He has solid plate discipline and it’s more of a line-drive approach at the plate. He does have decent power, but did not get his first home run of the season until his first at-bat on Sunday. The swing is more suited for spraying line drives across the field, but he has a knack for putting plenty of backspin on balls in play. He does have a bit of trouble with fastballs up in the zone, though that wasn’t very apparent in this series. He’d tally seven hits total in the three-game set, including back-to-back three-hit performances. He’s likely a lock to stay in at the eight moving forward, too. He glides on the basepaths and in center field, though his route running can waver from time to time. The arm may put him in a left field position should he move to a corner position, but ultimately, his speed should be the difference maker there.
He’s a bit of a weird one to rank on our board, but there’s a chance that Etzel could play his way into the top 100 picks. He’ll need to add more power to his profile, but he’s a potential center fielder with great speed and a knack for hitting. He’d fit anywhere at the beginning of Day 2 in July.
Honorable Mentions: INF Cade Kurland, Florida; OF Ethan Petry, South Carolina; INF Cole Messina, South Carolina; RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina; LHP Cade Fisher, Florida
Prospects Live is back with their 2023 Preseason All-American teams leading up to their extensive 2023 college baseball coverage.
The Prospects Live Preseason All-American teams are listed below, broken down into three separate teams. We selected our Preseason All-Americans based on their production from 2022, their prospect status in terms of our MLB Draft evaluations, and 2023 expectations.
The 2021 and 2022 MLB Drafts were both a bit prep-heavy at the top featuring five and four preps in the Top 10 picks respectively. It was high school shortstops galore. Early projections point to 2023 being a bit heavier on the college side; generally a good sign for the health of a draft class historically speaking.
