We're happy to introduce our final Top 500 Prospect update for the 2023 MLB Draft, featuring blurbs for the top 250 prospects on this list.
Draft Day Scenarios - Cincinnati Reds
As part of a new series accompanying the launch of the Prospects Live Mock Draft Machine, I’ll be highlighting draft day scenarios for a number of teams. What better way to use or new tool then put it to work before July 9th rolls around. To see where to start, I took to Twitter to see what team(s) the readers wanted to see me dive into.
The readers spoke and it felt apropos that the first team I saw mentioned was the much-discussed Cincinnati Reds. Thanks to a strong, young core of players like Jonathan India, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Hunter Greene, and of course Elly De La Cruz; it appears the buzz around the Redlegs is only intensifying. If you sensed a theme in the names I mentioned regarding the core of the team, you were right. The middle of the infield looks to be crowded for a long, long time. Cruz, India, McLain, Steer, Arroyo, Collier, and Marte are all names who should take the majority of playing time in the middle of the diamond for the foreseeable future.
Could those influence draft day decisions this coming July? We know teams don’t typically draft for Major League positional needs, but in a draft with strong frontline college pitching and stout prep outfielders; you have to wonder if the Cincy decision-makers sense a window creaking open and look to seize the opportunity. No matter what avenue they choose, the picks at hand offer plenty of intrigue.
Let’s set the scene on what the Reds have in this draft, specifically the first five rounds:
Picks:
7th overall ($6,275,200)
38th overall ($2,255,100)
43rd overall ($1,998,200)
74th overall ($975,100)
105th overall ($640,300)
141st overall ($451,100)
Overall, the Reds have the sixth-highest available bonus pool in the league, totaling $13,785,200. So what would likely scenarios be?
Scenario #1
In this simulation, things end up working out on the chalky side. The top five players on the Prospects Live Draft Board get selected in succession to each other, while the Oakland Athletics serve as a bit of a wildcard. Being in a situation where it looks as if they are a few years from playing competitive baseball, they aim for a high-upside, middle-of-the-diamond player in Arjun Nimmala. This allows the Reds to have their choice of the litter in regard to players like Dollander, Lowder, Teel, Meyer, Gonzalez, and Wilson.
As you can see, acting as the decision maker here, I chose Kyle Teel and paid him the full slot value. Teel is one of the premier college bats in this class, a pure athlete who gets high marks behind the plate. Some even say he plays catcher like a shortstop, which points towards a profile that stays behind the dish. Beyond that, you’re simply buying a high-level bat. A .418/.484/.673 slash line should tell you all you need to know.
Later in the draft, we are able to catch one of the prep shortstops as Adrian Santana finds his way down to pick No. 38. Feels as if with the amount of high-level prep SS in this class that one is bound to slip just a touch. We’re able to reign in Santana Jr. at just over slot value.
With our third selection, we are able to snag a potential frontline starter in Brandon Sproat. The stuff certainly suggests frontline, however, tweaks to the overall profile are needed. The organizational pitching infrastructure in place offers us to trust that the staff can make adjustments with Sproat and turn this into a great pick. The same can be said for Nick Maldonado who we snagged at pick No. 105 after selecting an extra high-upside prep middle infielder in Trent Caraway at 73 because you can never have enough of those. Jake Cunningham rounds out our five picks to offer just a touch of slot relief, but it’s certainly no throwaway. Cunningham possesses tools that are off the charts, putting it all together will be the test. If it clicks, we’re talking big leaguer.
Scenario #2
In this simulation, we catch a falling Max Clark. This is certainly not an outlandish happening. There's a real chance with the chaos of the MLB Draft that one of Jenkins or Clark finds their way to pick No. 7. For as long as this draft class has been talked about, Clark has been tabbed as one of, if not the best talent in the whole class. It’s an otherworldly high school stat line that includes a batting average in the .600s. Clark is more than a basher, it’s tools across the board. Speed, defense, plate discipline - Clark does it all well. Getting this type of upside at a position of need, at this type of value feels like a no-brainer for the Reds. We do have to pay a touch over-slot to make it happen but Clark feels worth it.
We find a similar profile with Colton Ledbetter at Pick No. 38. However, Ledbetter comes from the college ranks and may not have the sky-high ceiling of Clark - the profile is semi-reminiscent. Tanner Witt at pick No. 43 follows a similar path to that of Sproat and Maldonado from Scenario 1. Witt lacks the typical track record thanks to missing a large portion of 2023 due to injury but it’s a bet on the traits and pitching development infrastructure.
Wolters is a prep arm who has a major helium attached to his name right now. Up to 98 MPH, the big-bodied righty is gaining serious steam. If we’re lucky enough to see Wolters fall this far, we likely have to pay up to keep him from honoring his commitment to Arizona. We make it happen and go over-slot for Wolters but bring it back down to earth with the succeeding picks in Carson Roccaforte and Marcus Brown. A couple of guys who have seen major success at high-level college programs. Roccaforte falls in line with the Ledbetter profile and Brown is reminiscent of Trey Faltine, a fellow shortstop and Reds’ selection from 2022.
Conclusion
With the excitement level rising at the major league level, the opportunity within the 2023 Draft should offer just as much excitement for Cincinnati fans. Largely because this draft class is abnormally stout in its’ top fifty prospects. Just so happens the Reds hold three picks in the top 43. It’s an advantageous situation for a team looking to supplement an already young core. Flexibility is paramount in the chaos-filled MLB Draft. Reds’ brass will have plenty of that.
Who do you think the Reds should target at No. 7?
2023 MLB Draft: Top 400 Prospects - May Update
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*This article was written by Grant Carver and Cameron Emamian
Ralphy Velazquez, C/1B Huntington Beach, 2023
This name should be no surprise to anyone who has followed along with the 2023 MLB draft. Ralphy Velazquez is widely considered the top prep guy in California for the 2023 class, especially in a year where it has been a bit underwhelming for guys with high expectations. He delivered repeatedly during the week, including a light tower shot to right field. He also blasted a double off the wall dead center field in the Championship game against Notre Dame, along with lots of other hits he collected during the week. The power is legit, and it shows in games, especially to center and his pull side but he has the ability to go the other way as well. He knows the strike zone very well and doesn’t try to do more than he knows he can, which makes him very difficult to pitch to. Defensively as a catcher, he has good hands for receiving and a strong and accurate throwing arm, which is what you need to see from a catcher, but the mobility and athletic lateral movements are lacking a bit, as the body is very mature already and it might push him to first base long term. Either way, this is a bat that has teams and scouts dreaming on, and he can anchor an offense, don’t be surprised if he sneaks into the top 25 picks.
Trent Caraway, SS/3B JSerra, 2023
There have, for the most part, been two 2023 guys performing this season, Ralphy, and Caraway. Caraway would be really big for a SS, it seems highly likely he ends up as 3B but he projects solidly as a corner guy. He moves surprisingly well for his frame but it seems likely he’ll add even more weight as he matures which is where the corner position really comes in. I’m not sure too many teams will worry about him as a 3B over SS when he hits the way he does. He has the ability to hammer baseballs but there are still some concerns here. He was exposed a few times to better fastballs for having a longer swing, which can sometimes come from big power bats. There is also a good amount of swing and miss but when he connects, it is hard contact and he has delivered more than almost any other bat so far.
Casey Borba, 1B/3B Orange Lutheran, 2023
It’s hard not to be intrigued by a guy with the hit tool that Casey Borba has and he displayed that in the game I saw this week where he doubled and went deep for a home run. Borba has a really interesting swing that features a big leg kick and lots of bat movement. Within that swing is impressive bat control, and his approach impressed too. He was recognizing pitches and digging into counts extremely well, which pairs nicely with his ability to get the barrel to the zone and hammer the ball. He played third base in this one and was not tested very much on the dirt, but he is very much a corner profile. That kind of profile can get overlooked at this level for valid reasons, but Borba is very advanced at the plate and the production is hard to deny.
Ben Reiland, OF Orange Lutheran, 2024
The only non-2023 to crack this list and for good reason. Sitting in the middle of a lineup that features Casey Borba and 2024 top talent Derek Curiel, Reiland still finds ways to stick out. While he’s a fairly wiry and undersized frame, he might have one of the better hit tools in the 2024 class. He features great bat control and quick hands that hit hard-line drives all around the diamond. He’s currently a corner outfielder and he doesn’t exactly profile there, he’s played some middle infield as well, where he could make sense as a 2nd baseman but more likely than not he’ll end up on campus in the Fall of 2024 at Oklahoma State, and he’ll be a great watch in his college career.
Eric Bitonti, SS Aquinas, 2023
Bitonti just stands out of the crowd right away due to his combination of age and size alone. He is a legit 6’5 and is filled out on top of that, and the power was there because of it. In one of his plate appearances, Bitonti crushed a grand slam and showed off his plus raw power. It is hard contact when he connects thanks to his excellent bat speed, the question has been about the bat-to-ball skills. Still, in the game I saw him he was making contact with the ball, and that included the grand slam. In the dirt, Bitonti played a solid shortstop but he is probably a third baseman in the future. His lateral movement was a little slower than the ideal shortstop, which is not surprising given his size, and he did have a couple of mistakes with the leather. However, his hands were sound and his arm strength was impressive, making me believe in his ability to play the hot corner. Bitonti’s combination size, power, and bat speed were on full display during this one and all of those tools make him a real name to watch going forward.
Grant Gray, OF/SS Norco, 2023
Grant Gray has had a bunch of helium as a potential day one guy in this year's draft recently and it was pretty easy to see why. The tools he had were something scouts dream of. Gray is a plus-plus runner with a bunch of athleticism and is fluid in everything he does. He was moving super well at short and should be able to stay there as he gets more experience. The glove was a little raw and his arm accuracy was a problem, but the ball jumps out of his hand due to the arm strength he has. He has all the tools to be an above-average shortstop in the future. At the plate, the production was not really there in this one. He flashed his speed with an infield single, but that was about it. Still, the bat speed was there and the hit tool should improve with some swing refinements. His approach was average and needs time to improve as well. Gray is an extremely raw player for sure, but he is the type of two-sport athlete with all the tools and time he needs to really put it all together.
