Our second mock draft of the year starts college heavy and includes Charlie Condon, Travis Bazzana and others at the top.
2024 Pre-Season Top 100 Prospects Led by SS Jackson Holliday
Introducing the pSTFERA Suite - a new set of predictive ERA-estimators based on the Stuff of a given pitch, put on an ERA scale.
The ACC Tournament has come and gone, and while we are in the midst of the always fun regional play in the NCAA Tournament, it’s time for Tyler and Harris to share their thoughts on an eventful week in Durham.
The rain did hamper the final two days of the tournament for us, so all of these blurbs will be from games during pool play. We’ll start with Pool A, which featured Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh. Wake Forest will dominate this piece, mainly because they’re the most talented team in the ACC, but Notre Dame and Pittsburgh will get some recognition, especially in the honorable mentions. Pools B, C, and D will follow in the coming days.
Line: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K (105 Pitches)
The two-time ACC Pitcher of the Year continues to prove again and again why he’s a first-rounder in this cycle.
The start got off to a bit of a rough beginning, as Lowder allowed three doubles in the first two innings of his outing. He hung a change-up to Sky Duff in the first, which was followed by Noah Martinez jumping on an inside fastball. The third double would come off a middle-middle fastball to Justin Acal, but after that, Lowder would not allow another baserunner past second base. He did open the fourth with two walks and hit a batter in the sixth, but outside of those mistakes, Lowder mowed down the Pitt lineup.
Rhett Lowder is fun to watch.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) May 25, 2023
Holding 92-95 MPH, topped at 96 in the first, w/ two different shapes (4S and 2S). SL looks much improved, 84-87 MPH with legit two-plane break and spin near 2600-2700 RPMs. CH with serious fade and dive at 84-87 MPH. Very easy and loose delivery. pic.twitter.com/GmkNwisV7W
He’s very much still the same arm that he’s been all year, even with a ton of innings on the arm. He topped out at 96 MPH in the first inning and would hold 92-95 MPH throughout the whole outing, still touching 94 MPH in the seventh. He had two fastball variants, a four-seam and a two-seam, though he primarily used the two-seam to generate groundballs. The slider is much improved from 2022, now sitting comfortably in the mid-80s with impressive spin and consistent two-plane break, becoming his primary strikeout pitch. The change-up still has the patented abrupt fade in the mid-to-upper 80s, comfortably pitching inside to righties with it. At this point, it’s not otherworldly to say that he has two plus off-speed pitches. In all likelihood, Lowder has cemented himself as the second-best collegiate arm in this class, only behind LSU’s Paul Skenes. He’ll be a hot commodity in the back half of the top ten.
Line: 3-7, 2 HR, 3 BB, 0 K
We’ve talked about Kurtz in the past and how potent of a bat he is, and guess what, that’s not changed one bit in 2023.
The mountain of a human being that he is, Kurtz possesses some of the best juice in the entire country. He showed that off with two absolute rockets against Notre Dame, one a 117 MPH line drive to his pull-side and another that hit the berm in right-center field later on in the game. It comes very easy for Kurtz, with excellent bat speed from the left side, as well as an ability to hit for average, too. Not to forget, Kurtz has a very good approach at the plate and racks up walks aplenty. He’s relatively patient but knows when to attack. It’s pretty darn fun to watch and we still have another year to go.
Nick Kurtz is just incredible.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) May 26, 2023
The scoring in the nightcap is opened with a screaming line drive HR by Kurtz, leaving the bat at 117 (!) MPH. Really explosive front side and displays pretty special hip/shoulder separation. Enjoy the swing. pic.twitter.com/vtq2YzPsWe
While he is limited to first base, that doesn’t mean his defense is something to be ignored. It’s pretty similar to Evan White back in 2017, who was highly regarded for his defense. Kurtz has the athleticism to move well at the position and almost everyone that I’ve spoken to has said it’s some of the best first base defense they’ve ever seen. Fairly high praise, if you ask me. He backs that talk up in-game, saving errant pickoff throws and snagging everything thrown his way. He’s got a .997 fielding percentage for a reason.
What you’re looking at here is likely the best first base prospect since Andrew Vaughn, and honestly, he might be better than what Vaughn was. Of course, time will be the ultimate test as the bat must perform at that position, but given Kurtz’s entire profile, you’d be hard-pressed to bet against him excelling in the minor leagues.
Line: 4-7, 2 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
Wilken reached base 10 times through three ACC Tournament games – including two homers to add to his ACC-leading mark – but more notably, he avoided striking out throughout the week.
The six-foot-four right-hander stands with his shoulders slightly slouched and his legs straight to start, bending his knees as he gets into his load and finishing with a fairly simple uppercut swing. Wilken has spent so much of the season being overly passive, putting himself in unfavorable situations. While there isn’t a quick fix, it was encouraging to see him jump on first and second pitches on Thursday against Pitt– both of which went for extra bases. If he can jump on good pitches early while still maintaining his extremely low chase rate, he’ll be really dangerous at any level given his staggering exit velocities and ability to leave the yard at any moment.
Defensively, Wilken will never be an asset at the hot corner. The effort is typically there and he has decent hands and a strong arm, but his range is subpar and could warrant a move across the diamond. He is far from a plus runner, but he does run hard and displays the ability to take the occasional extra base. In a class that is fairly deep with college bats, Wilken stands out in the second tier and should wind up being a first rounder.
Line: 4-9, 1 2B, 1 BB, 2 K
Hawke might be on the smaller side of the spectrum for a ballplayer, but he makes up for it with his play on the diamond.
He’s a sparkplug in that Wake Forest lineup, manning the top of the order with patience and solid contact rates. It’s more of a slasher mentality at the dish, spraying the ball to all fields. There’s a bit of power in his profile, but it’s nothing more than below average at best, and that’s okay. He’s never going to be a power hitter and that’s something people can live with. He can be a threat on the basepaths with quality speed, which also allows him to have solid range in center field with some impressive defense, as well. In all likelihood, Hawke can man center field until a better defender up the ranks forces him off the position, where he’d likely profile best in left field.
He’s a polarizing prospect and one that should hear his name called relatively early next month. He fits perfectly in the middle part of Day 2 at this point, and maybe there’s a chance he can go in the top five rounds when all is said and done. He is also a draft-eligible sophomore, so that’s something to consider in his profile, but nonetheless, Hawke is a gamer and has the quality tools to succeed.
Line: 4-9, 1 BB, 0 K
Often the forgotten man in Wake Forest’s potent lineup, Bennett was a reliable contributor to the Demon Deacons’ pool play success– as he has been all season. The six-foot-one right-hander has a slightly open stance, employing a significant leg kick and a pretty big stride toward the pitcher. His swing is compact and geared for a gap-to-gap approach.
Bennett makes a ton of contact – he’s especially adept against offspeed – and though he sometimes gets out ahead of breaking balls, he does a good job of staying balanced and fouling them off. He doesn’t do as much damage as expected, with middling exit velocities and average over-the-fence power. Additionally, he rarely ever walks and adds little value on the bases.
Bennett moved to the outfield after spending most of his redshirt sophomore season at second base but has not stood out as a great defender in right. He is not the most fluid runner, and his routes are subpar. Plus, his fringy arm strength means second base and left field are his best options. His upside is limited due to his age, quiet toolset, and profile as a utility guy, but Bennett’s bat may be enticing enough for a late Day 2 draft selection.
Line: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 5 K (85 Pitches)
Flip-flopping between the rotation and the bullpen this season, Keener made a name for himself as part of Wake Forest’s dominant pitching staff. He drew the start against Notre Dame in the final game of pool play after spending most of the season in the bullpen.
At six-foot-two, Keener has just an average build and unexceptional athleticism, but he explodes off the mound with a powerful delivery, making hitters’ lives difficult with good extension out of a low-three quarters arm slot. Keener has an appealing three-pitch mix, headlined by two offspeeds. His best offering is a low-80s slider with plenty of spin and good two-plane movement that generates a ton of chases. He also flashes a plus changeup, which sits in the upper-80s and disappears away from lefties. His fastball comes with solid mid-90s velocity, but it’s fairly flat and isn’t much of an out pitch. With solid command of all three offerings and significantly improved control of the zone, Keener is an intriguing draft day option for some teams willing to give him a chance as a starter.
Line: 2-7, 1 HR, 2 BB, 0 K
There’s admittedly not a ton of draft talent on Pittsburgh’s roster, but if there’s anyone to keep an eye on as a senior sign or an undrafted free agent, it’s Martinez.
A Central Connecticut State transfer, he’s a big bopper that profiles best as a first base at the next level, if he’s given the chance. He doesn’t chase a ton, though there’s a clear issue with off-speed pitches in his profile. With that said, he loves the fastball and will do damage when it’s left in the zone. Most of his power will play to his pull side, though there’s some love to the opposite field gap, too. At first base, he only made one error all year and had a .998 fielding percentage, so there’s enough there defensively. While he’s well on the older side, as he turns 24 in August, he can help a team save money if they’re aggressive early in the draft, profiling as a senior sign on Day 3.
Honorable Mentions: Zack Prajzner, Notre Dame; Justin Johnson, Wake Forest; Bennett Lee, Wake Forest; Dylan Simmons, Pitt; Sky Duff, Pitt
Conventional wisdom says that College Baseball’s preseason #1 pick, LSU, are the overwhelming favorites to win the CWS; and why not? After bringing in the top recruiting class of 2022, which was highlighted by SS Gavin Guidry, C Brady Neal, RHP Nigel Noot and OF Paxton Kling, they also went absolutely wild in the transfer portal, landing Freshman of the Year Tommy White from NC St, first team All-American Paul Skenes from Air Force, and coveted arms in Thatcher Hurd from UCLA and Christian Little from Vanderbilt. If that wasn’t enough, they return the potential first overall pick in the 2023 draft and Co-SEC player of the year in Dylan Crews along with star 1B Tre Morgan and pitchers Ty Floyd and Grant Taylor.
