2024 Pre-Season Top 100 Prospects Led by SS Jackson Holliday
Introducing the pSTFERA Suite - a new set of predictive ERA-estimators based on the Stuff of a given pitch, put on an ERA scale.
As the spring turned to summer, top prospects stopped by to wrap up their regular and/or postseasons. From Chase Dollander to Paul Skenes, Dylan Crews to Kyle Teel, and some million dollar arms in Hoover, I went on the road to fill out the rest of my notebook and put a stamp on my 2023 coverage. Enjoy!
It’s not too often that you get to have eyes on two of the best players in a draft cycle. Well, that’s exactly what we got over the weekend in Columbia.
While Mother Nature had other plans for us, this weekend’s series between LSU and South Carolina was an electric factory. Despite the rubber match being canceled, we managed to get two great games in from a draft perspective. In this week’s return of Deep Drives, I’ll welcome one of our newest draft writers in William Mann, who gets to have some fun on writing blurbs. From Paul Skenes getting tested to Ethan Petry becoming an icon in Columbia, here’s our takes from a wild weekend down south.
What Paul Skenes has done this year atop LSU’s rotation has been nothing short of incredible. Coming into his start on Thursday, he had struck out 51.9% of the batters he had faced on the year, a figure we have not seen since Strasburg’s 2009 season to this point. South Carolina posed to be his biggest challenge of the year, and while he had two blemishes that would ultimately hand him his first loss of the year, he’d still find a way to impress and even up that insane strikeout rate.
He’s undergone an insane transformation under Wes Johnson’s supervision. Formerly 92-95 MPH in our look at CNT, Skenes is now comfortably in the upper 90’s and touched 100 MPH on numerous occasions Thursday. It comes in like a bowling ball and he has excellent command of the pitch, mainly working east-west across the zone. The pitch will get upwards of twenty inches of run or more, which is truly absurd. The slider is his primary out pitch, a high-80s offering with serious late bite and sweep that plays very well low in the zone. He showed an ability to manipulate the shape, showcasing more depth at times, though it’s primarily a big sweeper with fifteen inches or more horizontal movement. It’s easily plus. The change-up did not get much usage, with only two being thrown, but it has great velocity separation in the 88-89 MPH range with big tumble. It’s likely an above-average pitch moving forward. He’s got great feel to spin, as well.
Here's a better angle of Paul Skenes' outing for LSU.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 7, 2023
FB was a bowling ball at 96-100 MPH with six whiffs, manipulated SL shape (one tighter spin/one pure sweep) in mid-80's, threw in a single CH @ 89 with hard tumble. Pitches from third base side, tough angle for batters. pic.twitter.com/FplKmjgIGL
The aforementioned two blemishes he had would be two long home runs from Ethan Petry and Braylen Wimmer. South Carolina tested him throughout on close pitches and didn’t chase all that much early, as Petry showcased in his first at-bat. Petry’s home run was on a 99 MPH heater on the outer third, whereas Wimmer got a middle-middle heater and he did not miss it. He ultimately tallied ten whiffs overall with eight strikeouts in the three innings before a lightning delay ended his night. As a result, his strikeout rate on the year has jumped up to 53% (!).
Skenes is likely one of the best collegiate arms in recent memory. A true three-pitch mix with the big swing-and-miss traits he has, as well as very good command of his arsenal and ease of operation, really stand out and if Dylan Crews did not exist this year, you’re likely looking at the 1.1 favorite with three months remaining to the draft. It’s hard to envision Skenes falling out of the top three picks at this moment in time. - Tyler
On the other side of the ball for LSU, what Dylan Crews has done in 2023 is bordering on legendary. He’s had control of the top spot in this draft class for his entire collegiate career thus far and he’s only gone and continued to improve, currently hitting above .500 over halfway into the season with high exit velocities and contact rate. However, he showed some struggles at the plate in his battles against South Carolina pitching.
It felt as if Crews was being a bit too selective and patient at the plate and dug himself holes rather early in counts, allowing South Carolina pitchers to get into their weapons in two-strike counts. Crews has shown a tendency to struggle with sliders and change-ups and that’s what got him on the strikeouts he had over the weekend. At one point, he had swung at a slider in the dirt early in a count before whiffing on a change-up down and in. He’d end the weekend with just one single to his name that was of the infield variety. He did get hit twice and walked once in the second game, which allowed LSU to capitalize and take the lead in the top of the ninth to avoid a sweep.
With those struggles noted, he still showed off the tools that’s allowed him to become the 1.1 favorite. In batting practice, it was a line drive showcase to all fields. There’s plenty of bat speed visible to the naked eye, too, helping his potential plus power grade. As a runner, it’s above-average to plus speed, as he recorded a 4.16 home-to-first time on Friday and followed that up with a 4.25 on the infield single. You don’t find that kind of run tool with a right-handed hitter often. The speed allows him to get great range in center field and he showcased solid routes in both games. It’s enough to say he’ll hold down that spot unless there’s a better option for a team in the minors, where his arm would play well at. It’s a true five-tool potential profile and as of now, I have a hard time thinking he doesn’t go 1.1, but more clarity will appear as we creep closer to draft day. - Tyler
Ethan Petry likely will have the key to the city of Columbia come July. Why? Well, for starters, this is the most impressive freshman in the country at this point in time and is the driving force in a potent Gamecock offense that has solidified itself as one of the best in the nation. Oh, and it’s likely that this is a high-end first-round profile in 2025.
Folks, Ethan Petry has done it again.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 7, 2023
Gets a breaking ball down in the zone and absolutely does not miss it for a grand slam to blow this game wide open. Easy swing, easy juice.
Dare I say it....1.1 2025? pic.twitter.com/x5JbrcyPPK
His plate discipline and approach are rather advanced for a freshman in the SEC, and while he could draw more walks, he does a good job of limiting strikeouts and doesn’t show too much swing-and-miss to his game. His power comes very easy and there’s plenty of juice in his bat, which he displayed with two home runs in Thursday’s game, including one against Paul Skenes. He’d spit at 99 MPH and 100 MPH just off the outside corner in his first at-bat before pulling a 99 MPH heater on the outer third for a mammoth line drive homer, traveling 400 feet and leaving the bat at 111 MPH. He’d strike out on a nasty slider from Skenes in the next at-bat, but he’d crush a down and in slider from Micah Bucknam in his third at-bat for a grand slam, sending Founders Park into a frenzy. It’s truly special what he’s done.
Defensively, he’s got the stereotypical frame to play the outfield, a physical specimen with a projectable upper half to his body. He takes good routes and has a solid arm, though most of his value presently comes from the bat. He did have some infield time as a prep, and maybe there’s a chance he gets to play there at some point in his college career, but it’s likely that he sticks in the outfield. He does have some good athleticism, though his run tool is never going to stand out and is likely below-average at best. However you view this profile, you’re looking at the likely SEC Freshman of the Year winner. - Tyler
If there was anyone I’d have to say was the best bat throughout the weekend for LSU, it’d have to be their shortstop, Jordan Thompson.
Thompson has slowly, but surely, evolved himself into more of an offensive threat while on campus in Baton Rouge. He’s still got some issues with spin away from him, but this is a kid that will battle pitchers in the box. He had multiple at-bats that lasted seven to eight pitches, fouling off pitches and protecting the plate. What was a bit of a surprise was the power in the bat. He had two long home runs to his pull-side, both of which were on pitches in the inner third of the plate. The kid knows how to turn on a pitch, sending both out with exit velocities hovering around 105 MPH and one of the balls landed halfway up the bleachers in deep left field. His swing is more suited for line drives, primarily to the gaps, too.
He’s certainly improved overall with his defense at shortstop, coming off a campaign with eighteen errors in 2022, though he admittedly struggled at times against South Carolina. It felt as if he was rushing himself and should have slowed down to make plays, accruing two errors throughout the series. He’s got the range and arm to stick at the position, though he likely profiles more as a utility infielder who starts at shortstop in the minor leagues. He’s certainly raised his stock this year and likely finds himself being drafted somewhere in the early part of Day 2. - Tyler
In what’s been a pleasant surprise in 2023, South Carolina RHP Jack Mahoney has seemingly turned himself into one of the better SEC arms in this year’s draft class. He had missed the entirety of the 2022 season with a torn UCL, but he’s making a statement in 2023 and profiles as the best arm the team has.
RHP Jack Mahoney is going to be a name to watch come draft day.
— Tyler Jennings (@TylerJennings24) April 7, 2023
Heavy bore on heater at 91-95 and command it well east-to-west. Slider is go-to breaker with sweep in low-80's, flashing CH at 82-83 with good fade. Looking at a potential third-rounder. Up to 5 K's. pic.twitter.com/4eU5YDnvJ8
There’s a good chance that Mahoney likely throws harder down the line with the way he moves down the mound, though for now, he’s primarily in the 92-95 MPH range with two-seam life that plays horizontally across the zone. He’s shown an ability to paint the corners with the pitch, though he likely won’t miss a ton of bats moving forward. He only had two whiffs on the heater, one up and away from Tre’ Morgan and the other boring in on the hands of Paxton Kling. The slider is his best pitch overall. A sweeper in the 80-85 MPH range, his slider is his primary out pitch that tunnels well with his fastball. It gives him a potentially dominant two-pitch pairing that would play very well out of a bullpen down the line. He mixes in a change-up that is firm and dives away from lefties, though it’s sparsely utilized.
He’s had a very good year up to this point and the command, which was a bit of worry coming off the injury, has looked very solid. This is a profile that could find itself scratching its way into the second round, though as of now, a third-round selection seems more likely. Mahoney has the potential to move quickly, especially if an organization believes he’s better suited for a bullpen role moving forward. With that said, he’s earned the opportunity to start at the next level. - Tyler
Wimmer displayed many reasons why he was selected in the 18th round of the 2022 MLB Draft by the Phillies on Thursday night. He doesn't fear anyone at the plate between, not even the best pitcher in the country, Paul Skenes. Wimmer went 2-for-3 with a homer, a pair of walks, and a pair of RBIS.
He is 6'4 and looks every part of it with his upright stance at the plate. This frame allows him to take long strides and be a plus runner for his size. On the flip side, however, his frame looks to be negative at short, and while he has a tendency to make highlight reel plays there, he often looks clunky, and he's still learning at the position.
Wimmer isn't a hitter that's going to get cheated at the plate, and this is what positioned him to have such a quality night up there. He displayed this perfectly in the third inning when Skenes grooved him a 98 mph fastball middle-middle, and Wimmer completely took advantage of it with the ball leaving the park. The ball left his bat going 107 mph and went a nice 407 feet before finding former Gamecock Tight end Nate Adkins's hands. Wimmer finished the day with a couple of walks and a single.
Braylen Wimmer is a very polished senior, and he has picked up right where he left off SEC play last year. Many questioned his decision to return and play shortstop for his final season, and while the position change is still up in the air, no one is questioning his ability to handle the bat when the lights shine the brightest. - William
Just like Wimmer, James Hicks was also selected in the 2022 MLB draft, but by the Brewers in the 15th round. With last season being very short-lived for Hicks due to a torn UCL, he decided to return to school to make a more prominent name for himself and improve his stock for the next cycle.
While not overpowering in stature, Hicks is a nice 6’2 190 and utilizes this athletic frame well on the mound. He is a real competitor on the mound, and on Thursday night against LSU, there were plenty of moments showcasing this.
Hicks is a true sinkerballer who uses his slider to complement the movement of the sinker well. The sinker sits around 90-92 but can occasionally run it up to 94. The slider is a true putout pitch here and has a whiff rate over 40%. The slider is nasty and flashes plus potential to me. The sinker is full of life and can be a plus pitch going forward.
All in all, Hicks has done everything the South Carolina staff asked of him, including a very impressive outing Thursday night against top-ranked LSU, where he went 4 innings, giving up two runs. Although he gave up these runs, he looked comfortable out there and mostly pitched to contact until eventually giving up a two-run shot to SS Jordan Thompson. Hicks has been labeled a Swiss army knife by many, which raised his draft stock from a year ago. He is one to keep a close eye on as the draft continues to creep up on us. - William
Honorable Mentions: 3B Tommy White, LSU; RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina; 1B/OF Tre’ Morgan, LSU; RHP Gavin Guidry, LSU
A new year, a new board and new ranks. The Top 300 is here. With the summer showcase circuit behind us and college fall ball in the rearview mirror, we’re ready to re-rank the 2023 draft class. Our team has taken in 9 showcase tournaments and been closely monitoring fall scrimmages. We’ve collected data and pitch metrics from guys showcasing their summer gains and, boy, do things look promising. Some guys are breaking out.
A new year, a new board and new ranks. The Top 300 is here. With the summer showcase circuit behind us and college fall ball in the rearview mirror, we’re ready to re-rank the 2023 draft class. Our team has taken in 9 showcase tournaments and been closely monitoring fall scrimmages. We’ve collected data and pitch metrics from guys showcasing their summer gains and, boy, do things look promising. Some guys are breaking out.
Prospects Live is back with their 2023 Preseason All-American teams leading up to their extensive 2023 college baseball coverage.
The Prospects Live Preseason All-American teams are listed below, broken down into three separate teams. We selected our Preseason All-Americans based on their production from 2022, their prospect status in terms of our MLB Draft evaluations, and 2023 expectations.
A new year, a new board and new ranks. With the summer showcase circuit behind us and college fall ball in full swing, we’re ready to re-rank the 2023 draft class. Our team has taken in 9 showcase tournaments and been closely monitoring fall scrimmages. Some guys are breaking out. As always, our boards are built on three pillars:
A new year, a new board and new ranks. With Prospect Development Pipeline and the Perfect Game National Showcase in the books, we’re prepared to release our Top 100 prospect. These will shift in the coming months after Area Code Games, East Coast Pro and World Wood Bat Championships, but we’re feeling pretty good about where things currently lay.
