Live Looks: First Half of March

It’s been a hectic start to the season and while I racked up the flyer miles in February, March marked the start of conference play in North Carolina. Having some prior obligations taking center stage in life, this means that this Live Looks edition will be longer than most. I made stops at East Carolina, NC State, and Wake Forest/Duke to start off the month and there will be more ACC content as the month progresses.

As a disclaimer, I will see Duke two weeks in a row, so the players I selected for this piece will likely not be written up on the next piece. Players like Jonathan Santucci, who had a rough outing against Wake Forest, will be written up after the series against Clemson, but that will include notes from the Wake Forest series as a comparison to what I saw between the two outings.

East Carolina Pirates

RHP trey yesavage

DRAFT GRADE: Mid-First round (Picks 10-20)

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NC State Wolfpack

c jacob cozart

draft grade: Back-end first round

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Wake Forest Demon Deacons

ss/of sEAVER kING

DRAFT GRADE: Top ten

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1B NICK KURTZ

DRAFT GRADE: Top ten

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LHP JOSH HARTLE

DRAFT GRADE: second round

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RHP CHASE BURNS

DRAFT GRADE: top five/ten

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RHP MICHAEL MASSEY

DRAFT GRADE: Late second/early third

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LHP HAIDEN LEFFEW

DRAFT GRADE: high follow (2026)

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Duke Blue Devils

LHP Kyle Johnson

DRAFT GRADE: High follow (2026)

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OF DEVIN OBEE

DRAFT GRADE: Mid day two

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RHP CHARLIE BEILENSON

DRAFT GRADE: day 3 moneysaver

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OF AJ GRACIA

DRAFT GRADE: high follow (2026)

2024 MLB Draft: Top 100 College Prospects

Director’s Note: All Draft Day Ages for players are pinned to July 14, 2024, our guess as to when the MLB Draft will start. The league has not announced the dates for the 2024 MLB Draft and once revealed, we will adjust approximate ages to that date.

The 2024 Top 100 High School board can be found here. Once the season is in full bloom, we will begin to integrate a single list, starting off with 200 prospects. As always, our 2024 Prospect Footage can be found here.

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1. 2B/SS JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia

Height: 5’10

Weight: 190

B/T: L/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 10 mo

Wetherholt's bat has a chance to be very special, as the mix of pure hit and power tools profile as one of the best in the entire country. Wetherholt posts elite contact rates and seldom whiffs with impressive feel for the barrel. It's a compact and powerful swing from the left side of the plate, showcasing very quick hands and loud bat speed. Wetherholt utilizes the whole field to his advantage and will punish the gaps with legitimate above-average to plus power, which also plays well to his pull side. It's a truly special bat. He's played at third base and second base the past two years, though he's been given a chance at shortstop this fall and the reports are promising. The range is there to handle the position, though the arm strength needs some improvement. He's a solid runner and knows how to be a menace on the basepaths, as well, recording 36 stolen bases in 2023.

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2. 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest

Height: 6’5

Weight: 235

B/T: L/L

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 4 mo

Coming in at 6'5, 235lbs, Nick Kurtz is a monster of a human being at the plate. The size, strength, and power Kurtz possesses is a scout's dream. The Wake Forest first baseman has a scary good offensive profile. He is going to draw his fair share of walks due to his patience at the plate while also hitting for massive power thanks to his near 70-grade pop. On top of that, he's got a well advanced approach at the plate and is able to use the entire field. Shockingly for his size, he is fairly athletic and can more than hold his own at first base. He's one of the best defenders at first base and easily grades as a plus defender. Kurtz is a likely frontrunner to be the 2024 ACC Player of the Year and should be providing plenty of offense as the anchor for the Demon Deacons lineup. He has the makings of becoming a force in a big league lineup and will likely be a fast riser through the minors.

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3. 2B Travis Bazzana, Oregon State

Height: 6’0

Weight: 199

B/T: L/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 10 mo

An import from Australia, Bazzana's overall toolset is ridiculously impressive. He's put up incredible numbers in his two years at Oregon State, slashing .340/.463/.549 across two seasons in Corvallis with elite bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. He's a really tough out at the plate, rarely expanding the zone and he's got an incredible eye, racking up walks aplenty. His spray chart is a thing of beauty, utilizing the entire field with a compact, line drive swing with a ton of bat speed that is meant to do serious damage. It's above-average juice at the present and most of it plays to his pull side, but he's shown an ability to hammer the ball to the opposite field gap. Bazzana is also an incredible runner, posting plus run times on a consistent basis. He's primarily been a second baseman up to this point, though there's a chance we see him at shortstop in 2024. He's got enough athleticism and twitch to have solid range there, though his arm is nothing more than average. Either way you draw it up, this is a potentially elite bat with suitable defense up the middle.

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4. RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

Height: 6’4

Weight: 195

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 5 mo

Burns is an electric factory on the bump. The Wake Forest transfer is a bulldog type on the mound and he exudes all the confidence you want to see in a pitcher on the mound. He isn't afraid to go right after batters with his electric fastball. What is an elite two-pitch mix, he sits in the upper-90s with significant life to the fastball and pairs it with a diabolical upper-80s/low-90s slider that he can manipulate the shape of. He also isn't afraid to reach back on his fastball for a little extra and can get it up to 101-102 mph. He's been working on a curveball and a splitter, flashing potential, though he doesn't rely on either heavily. His command can waiver at times, but when he is locked in, he can paint a masterpiece. Even with the slight command woes, the stuff is elite and it will be interesting to see what the Wake Forest pitching lab can do to elevate his already incredible arsenal to the next level. He is the best arm in this class.

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5. 1B/of Charlie Condon, Georgia

Height: 6’6

Weight: 211

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 3 mo

The reigning SEC Freshman of the Year, Condon's unexpected emergence was a welcome sight. After redshirting his first year on campus, Condon exploded onto the scene with a .386/.484/.800 slash line and 25 home runs in 56 games. Condon has a towering, physical frame at 6'6, 211 pounds with plenty of strength throughout his body and there's quite a bit of projection to it still. Condon has plus-plus raw power to all fields and got to it often in 2023, posting healthy exit velocities and even getting into the 110-115 MPH range. It's a ton of bat speed and very quick hands with the barrel exploding through the zone with little effort. There's some hitterish traits with Condon, as he has solid bat-to-ball skills, though he does have his struggles with spin. Defensively, Condon has enough speed and athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot, though if he outgrows the position, he can handle first base. The bat would have to continue to perform in that case and that's the selling point right now.

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6. OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 1 mo

Finding guys with five tool potential is a tough task, but Honeycutt has the potential to be that type of player. Honeycutt showed plenty of improvements in the strikeout department in 2023, dropping the strikeout rate significantly, though that came with the price of production. Nonetheless, Honeycutt has game-changing tools. There's plenty of bat speed from the right side of the plate and there's potentially plus power that plays to his pull side and he'll hit the gaps to show off his blazing speed. The swing-and-miss has toned down and he rarely chases, which is promising for the hit tool. If everything comes together in 2024, there's potential for an above-average hit tool here. He's a lock to stick in center field long term, as his plus speed gives him exceptional range and he'll make highlight reel plays on a consistent basis. There's a strong arm here, as well. If everything clicks, there's serious 1-1 potential.

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7. SS/OF Seaver King, Wake Forest

Height: 6’0

Weight: 190

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 2 mo

One of the funnest development stories to follow, Seaver King has made his way to Wake Forest after playing last year at Division II Wingate. He was quite undersized coming out of high school which only earned him the Wingate offer, but he's grown a bit since then and found his way into a gig with what might be one of the best college teams going into the 2024 season. King has a robust line-drive approach at the plate with tons of bat speed and has the ability to use the entire field to go along with very good exit velocities, getting up to 111 MPH this fall. King doesn't strikeout often and gets a lot of barrel to ball, but he also doesn't walk a ton either and the chase rates are a bit too high. If he can improve the discipline in 2024 and continue to blast the baseball, he'll be a certified top fifteen pick. He's rather twitchy in the field and can play a myriad of positions for Wake Forest this spring, including center field.

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8. RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa

Height: 6’4

Weight: 225

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 9 mo

Brecht may have the highest upside of any arm in this loaded college class and he's lit up Stuff+ models with some of the loudest stuff in the college landscape. Brecht has undergone some mechanical tweaks since his high school days, most notably being a shortened arm action that has given him more deception. It's a very quick arm with excellent athleticism, as well. He's gotten up to 101 MPH during starts in 2023, holding upper-90s velocity well throughout his starts, accuring whiffs at a high rate despite suboptimal vertical carry. The slider is the real deal, showing true double-plus potential with hellacious bite. It'll display shorter break with late lateral movement and he's shown an ability to land it for strikes when the fastball command is out of whack. He's tinkered with a low-90s change-up and a low-80s curveball, but he's primarily just had to use the FB-SL combination thus far. The high walk rate and command woes have been the big thing holding Brecht back, though he did show improved fastball command down the stretch for the Hawkeyes. He's stepped away from football and will be focusing solely on pitching moving forward.

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9. 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida

Height: 6’5

Weight: 245

B/T: L/L

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 5 mo

Dubbed the "Ohtani" of college baseball, Caglianone is one of the most well-known players at the amateur level with legitimate two-way potential. There's a bit of rawness to his game, but the power on both sides of the ball are rather impressive. We'll start with the bat, which might have the best power in this entire class. It's easy double-plus right now with extremely quick hand speed and torque, generating a ton of bat speed and all fields power. He's producing some of the loudest exit velocities in the country as a result. The hit tool could use some refinement, as he's rather aggressive and expands the zone frequently. On the defensive side, it's a first-base profile. As an arm, Caglianone has loud stuff, but the command holds him back. The fastball has flirted with triple digits with some life, paired with a bullet-esque slider with solid potential and a bigger bender. The change-up has excellent velocity separation and fading life, boasting a high whiff rate. He's tinkered with his mechanics, becoming more compact this fall, but time will tell how much this helps his command. The jury is still out on if he has to choose one or the other, but the upside on both sides is enticing.

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10. OF Mike sirota, Northeastern

Height: 6’3

Weight: 188

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr

Sirota is about as well-rounded of a hitter as you'll find in college baseball. The Northeastern outfielder possesses a rare combination of discipline, power, and hit ability that is hard to come by at the amateur level. Offensively, he lets the ball get deep in the zone, allowing him to stay back and drive the ball to all fields with authority. He rarely chases pitches out of the zone, drawing plenty of walks in the process. Though he occasionally gets knocked for playing at a mid-major, his performance against high-quality pitching over the last two summers in the Cape Cod League show he can excel with a competition jump and wood bat. His speed allows him to cover a ton of ground in center field, which is where he projects as plus long-term. Sirota's advanced bat combined with his athleticism are what make him a potential first-round pick.

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Deep(er) Drives: Alabama's Ben Hess

Deep(er) Drives is back and now that we’ve closed the book on the 2023 draft class, it’s time to start diving into some of the more interesting prospects in this year’s class. There are admittedly some questions left to be answered in this class, especially in the college arm demographic. There’s a lot of upside, especially in the upper echelon of this class. Here are the arms that I firmly believe are in that echelon:

• RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

• RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa

• LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

Burns is the top arm for us and it’s easy to see why. It’s a loud one-two punch with very solid mechanics, though we’d like to see improvements in secondaries and how the stuff plays over lengthier starts. Brecht and Smith are hampered by command woes but have insanely loud metrics. They’ve both shown improvements this fall, with Brecht showcasing smoother mechanics and Smith adding more velocity, touching triple digits in Fayetteville. However, if there was another name that I could add to this tier, had they been fully healthy, it would be Alabama’s Ben Hess.

Maybe it’s a bit bold to say that, but what Hess was doing pre-injury was nothing short of extraordinary. Hess was having a breakout year through seven starts, posting a 3.22 ERA across 36.1 innings and recording a remarkable 49:8 K:BB ratio. Hess’s stuff took a significant uptick and was a big piece to the puzzle for his emergence, but there’s a lot more under the hood when you dive deeper into his profile. So what else led to Hess’ rise and what has to happen in 2024? Let’s dive in.

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The uptick in strikes is the first thing that pops out when looking into Hess’ success. With his 2022 and 2023 seasons being a similar sample size, it’s a bit easier to note the difference. Between the seasons, here are the numbers:

Hess’ command was certainly a weak spot in 2022, but the jump in strikes that we saw in 2023 is quite underrated, particularly with the heater. At 62% in 2022, this resulted in the fastball not performing to the best of its ability. For reference, his fastball was in the zone just 51% of the time and there is a correlation between fastball performance and zone percentage. The higher the zone percentage, the better the fastball plays in the zone. This wasn’t the only change that occurred to the heater, and we’ll get to that later, but the results do speak for themselves. Here are those numbers:

Seeing a substantial jump like that in the zone certainly draws attention to you. In turn, Hess’ walk rate dropped to a minuscule 5.47%, dropping from the 13.48% mark he posted as a freshman. We'd like to see how the command plays over a full season, especially since Hess has yet to eclipse the 40-inning barrier, but we feel confident that the command will be roughly the same in 2024.

The next thing on the list to talk about is the fastball itself. Hess’ heater projects as a plus offering in our eyes, making it one of the best collegiate fastballs in the class. I’m a big fan of a heater that misses bats and that’s exactly what you get here. Missing bats at a 34% clip in his 36.1 inning sample this spring, Hess’ success has come as a result of tweaks at his release and his average velocity creeping into the mid-90s. As a freshman, Hess averaged 93.2 MPH and tickled 95 MPH, and given the size and athleticism, more was expected to come along. His velocity jumped forward as a sophomore, averaging 94.7 MPH and he brushed 99 MPH on a couple of occasions. At this point, he’s still in a recovery mode from his injury suffered in March, which we will touch on more later, but he’s already been up to 96 MPH in side sessions and there could be more in the tank this spring, but time will tell on that.

Credit: Ryan Ferron (@FerronRyan) on Twitter

One big change in the fastball metrics resides in the pitch’s Vertical Approach Angle, or VAA for short. VAA is the angle at which the pitch approaches the plate and it’s become a popular asset with pitch development. When it comes to four-seam fastballs, like Hess’, the average we look for is -5 degrees. Anything lower than that mark (i.e. -4.5 degrees) is optimal, as it gives the pitch a leg up at the top of the zone. Anything higher than that mark (i.e. -6 degrees) hampers four-seamers and will be more suitable for sinkers/two-seamers at the bottom of the zone. With Hess, his VAA dropped four-tenths of a degree from -5.1 to -4.7, and with the increase in velocity, the pitch began to perform at a higher degree. This was likely due to a slight tweak in wrist orientation at release, as that helps create a flatter plane to the plate.

In terms of shape, Hess features a pitch with slightly above-average carry, registering 17.4 inches, and a large amount of arm-side run, coming in at 13.5 inches. I’ve created a scatter chart with the fastball metrics of our Top 50 College arms to compare Hess’ shape (which is surrounded by a black circle) to others:

Hess traded half an inch of carry for half an inch of run in 2023, giving him the third-highest horizontal movement mark amongst our Top 50 College arms. Add high spin rates to the mix and you’ve got a recipe for success. There is a comparison I’d like to make, and maybe it’s a bold one to use, but I’ll do it anyway: Hess’ 2023 heater is comparable to Chase Dollander’s 2022 metrics.

I must add that this is strictly going off the pure movement metrics, as the sample size difference between the two is substantial (Dollander doubled Hess’ fastball total). Dollander’s 2022 fastball averaged ~17.6 inches of IVB and 12.4 inches of hMov, which isn’t too far off of what Hess had in 2023. Dollander has Hess beat in the VAA department, though, as Dollander’s VAA was half a degree lower and played a big role in his bat-missing stuff. Dollander’s heater tickled the 70-grade barrier before seeing some regression in the movement profile, and an argument can be made for Hess, too.

All in all, Hess’ heater is comfortably in the plus tier for me. There are not too many glaring flaws metrically and he passes the bat-missing test with flying colors. The 30% in-zone whiff rate and 29% chase rate are indicative of how successful the pitch has become and there’s no reason to think it won’t perform the same this upcoming spring unless something drastic occurs. I’d love to see how it plays over a full season.

Hess isn’t just fastball-reliant, though. He has three off-speed pitches that are at least average or better and at least one with legitimate plus potential. We’ll start with that pitch and it’s the upper-70s curveball that has true hammer potential. He only threw it 11% of the time in 2023, the least of his secondaries, but it racked up whiffs over 50% of the time. He averages over 2,600 RPMs with his spin rate and it can get a bit slurvy, though most of the time, it’ll feature an 11/5 shape. It averages over 13 inches of depth, which gives him roughly 31 inches of vertical separation between this and the heater. Sprinkle in 15 inches of sweep on average and you’ve got yourself a banger. He throws it hard with intent and it really snaps over the plate, allowing him to utilize it for chases out of the zone and he’s got feel to land it for strikes. He’s still learning to command it better, but this is a potential plus pitch with legitimate swing-and-miss traits.

The change-up is his third pitch behind the curveball, giving him a viable option against left-handed hitters. It has the potential to be a power change in the mid-80s with a ton of horizontal movement away from lefties, averaging close to 17 inches. He does kill a good amount of spin on the pitch, though you can still classify it as a high-spin offering with it being around the 1,950 RPM mark. He does a good job of selling it with similar arm speed and likes to throw it in the zone often. As he continues to gain confidence in the pitch, he’ll begin to throw it down and in to righties more. I’m confident in slapping an above-average grade for the time being, but there’s a legitimate chance it can become plus with time.

Lastly, we’ll talk about Hess’ slider, which profiles as his fourth-best offering. He throws it hard in the upper-80s with cutter-esque movement, though the spin metrics aren’t as sharp as the curveball. It’s his most used secondary and he likes to command it away from righties/in on lefties, though it lacks consistent bite and doesn’t generate a ton of chases with it. It’s a fine average offering for now, but refinement is needed at the next level. He may opt to ditch the slider in the minor leagues and lean more on his curveball, but for now, he’s comfortable throwing it.

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Now that we’ve talked about the arsenal and command, let’s address the elephant in the room. Hess has been hampered by injuries during his collegiate career, limiting him to just 70 total innings. He missed the first three weeks of the 2022 season due to an injury and suffered a forearm strain during his start against Arkansas in late March, which ended his 2023 campaign. He’s been on the mend since, but when we spoke to Head Coach Rob Vaughn in October, Hess was throwing in side sessions and had a pitch count in a scrimmage against Florida State. The expectation is that Hess will slide into the Friday night role for the Crimson Tide.

“He’s been great. He feels 100% awesome. He’s been throwing bullpens…all of a sudden he popped a 96…he feels great.”

Alabama Head Baseball Coach Rob Vaughn gives an update and his thoughts on right-hander and MLB Draft prospect Ben Hess.

Full interview dropping Thursday! pic.twitter.com/cpt6sC3AgF

— Prospects Live (@ProspectsLive) October 25, 2023

Luckily for Hess, there’s been a bit less pushback from teams when it comes to elbow injuries. In the past few years, we’ve seen several highly regarded arms selected in the top 100 picks despite battling elbow ailments. Jaxon Wiggins and Teddy McGraw are two names that come to mind in last year’s class, as well as Dylan Lesko and Connor Prielipp in 2022. With that said, if Hess were to be a first-round selection this July, he’ll need a fully healthy spring. In the case that Hess suffers another injury, I still envision him being selected in the second or third round, especially with the weak prep class. Overall, this is a very talented arm that has shown that he has the stuff to be one of the best arms in the class. A plus heater that’s backed up by three average or better off-speed pitches and premium command is tough to come by in today’s game. Time will tell whether this becomes true or not, but expect Hess to make some noise come February.

2024 MLB Draft: Top 50 College Prospects

Director’s Note: All Draft Day Ages for players are pinned to July 14, 2024, our guess as to when the MLB Draft will start. The league has not announced the dates for the 2024 MLB Draft and once revealed, we will adjust approximate ages to that date. Furthermore, we do not own the rights to any images utilized in these lists and those rights belong to the proper individuals/organizations.

The link to our 2024 Top 50 High School board can be found here and our 2024 Prospect Footage can be found here.

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1. 2B/SS Travis Bazzana, Oregon State

Height: 6’0

Weight: 202

B/T: L/R

dRAFT dAY aGE: 21 yr 10 mo

An import from Australia, Bazzana's overall toolset is ridiculously impressive. He's put up incredible numbers in his two years at Oregon State, slashing .340/.463/.549 across two seasons in Corvallis with elite bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. He's a really tough out at the plate, rarely expanding the zone and he's got an incredible eye, racking up walks aplenty. His spray chart is a thing of beauty, utilizing the entire field with a compact, line drive swing with a ton of bat speed that is meant to do serious damage. It's above-average juice at the present and most of it plays to his pull side, but he's shown an ability to hammer the ball to the opposite field gap. Bazzana is also an incredible runner, posting plus run times on a consistent basis. He's primarily been a second baseman up to this point, though there's a chance we see him at shortstop in 2024. He's got enough athleticism and twitch to have solid range there, though his arm is nothing more than average. Either way you draw it up, this is a potentially elite bat with suitable defense up the middle.

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2. 2b/3b j.j. wETHERHOLT, wEST vIRGINIA

hEIGHT: 5’10

wEIGHT: 190

b/t: l/r

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 10 mo

Wetherholt's bat has a chance to be very special, as the mix of pure hit and power tools profile as one of the best in the entire country. Wetherholt posts elite contact rates and seldom whiffs with impressive feel for the barrel. It's a compact and powerful swing from the left side of the plate, showcasing very quick hands and loud bat speed. Wetherholt utilizes the whole field to his advantage and will punish the gaps with legitimate above-average to plus power, which also plays well to his pull side. It's a truly special bat. He manned second base primarily in 2023, though he's got prior experience at the hot corner and one would expect him to see more time there in 2024. The range is there to handle the position, though the arm strength needs some improvement. He's a solid runner and knows how to be a menace on the basepaths, as well, recording 36 stolen bases in 2023.

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3. RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

Height: 6’4

Weight: 195

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 5 mo

Burns is an electric factory on the bump. The Wake Forest transfer is a bulldog type on the mound and he exudes all the confidence you want to see in a pitcher on the mound. He isn’t afraid to go right after batters with his electric fastball. What is an elite two-pitch mix, he sits in the upper-90s with significant life to the fastball and pairs it with a diabolical upper-80s/low-90s slider that he can manipulate the shape of. He also isn’t afraid to reach back on his fastball for a little extra and can get it up to 101-102 mph. He’s been working on a curveball and a splitter, but both pitches are still a work in progress with potential. His command can waiver at times, but when he is locked in, he can paint a masterpiece. Even with the command issues, the stuff is elite and it will be interesting to see what the Wake Forest pitching lab can do to elevate his already incredible arsenal to the next level.

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4. 1B NIck Kurtz, Wake Forest

Height: 6’5

Weight: 235

B/T: L/L

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 4 mo

Coming in at 6’5, 235lbs, Nick Kurtz is a monster of a human being at the plate. The size, strength, and power Kurtz possesses is a scout's dream. The Wake Forest first baseman has a scary good offensive profile. He is going to draw his fair share of walks due to his patience at the plate while also hitting for massive power thanks to his near 70-grade pop. On top of that, he’s got a well advanced approach at the plate and is able to use the entire field. Shockingly for his size, he is fairly athletic and can more than hold his own at first base. He’s one of the best defenders at first base and easily grades as a plus defender. Kurtz is a likely frontrunner to be the 2024 ACC Player of the Year and should be providing plenty of offense as the anchor for the Demon Deacons lineup. He has the makings of becoming a force in a big league lineup and will likely be a fast riser through the minors.

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5. OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina

Height: 6’3

Weight: 205

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 1 mo

Finding guys with five tool potential is a tough task, but Honeycutt has the potential to be that type of player. Honeycutt showed plenty of improvements in the strikeout department in 2023, dropping the strikeout rate significantly, though that came with the price of production. Nonetheless, Honeycutt has game-changing tools. There's plenty of bat speed from the right side of the plate and there's potentially plus power that plays to his pull side and he'll hit the gaps to show off his blazing speed. The swing-and-miss has toned down and he rarely chases, which is promising for the hit tool. If everything comes together in 2024, there's potential for an above-average hit tool here. He's a lock to stick in center field long term, as his plus speed gives him exceptional range and he'll make highlight reel plays on a consistent basis. There's a strong arm here, as well. If everything clicks, there's serious 1-1 potential.

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6. RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa

Height: 6’4

Weight: 225

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 9 mo

Brecht may have the highest upside of any arm in this loaded college class and he's lit up Stuff+ models with some of the loudest stuff in the college landscape. Brecht has undergone some mechanical tweaks since his high school days, most notably being a shortened arm action that has given him more deception. It's a very quick arm with excellent athleticism, as well. He's gotten up to 101 MPH during starts in 2023, holding upper-90s velocity well throughout his starts, accuring whiffs at a high rate. The slider is the real deal, showing true double-plus potential with hellacious bite. It'll display shorter break with late lateral movement and he's shown an ability to land it for strikes when the fastball command is out of whack. He's tinkered with a low-90s change-up and a low-80s curveball, but he's primarily just had to use the FB-SL combination thus far. The high walk rate and command woes have been the big thing holding Brecht back, though he did show improved fastball command down the stretch for the Hawkeyes. He's stepped away from football and will be focusing solely on pitching moving forward, which is great news for his potential.

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7. 1B/OF Charlie Condon, Georgia

Height: 6’6

Weight: 211

B/T: R/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 3 mo

The reigning SEC Freshman of the Year, Condon's unexpected emergence was a welcome sight. After redshirting his first year on campus, Condon exploded onto the scene with a .386/.484/.800 slash line and 25 home runs in 56 games. Condon has a towering, physical frame at 6'6, 211 pounds with plenty of strength throughout his body and there's quite a bit of projection to it still. Condon has plus raw power to all fields and got to it often in 2023, posting healthy exit velocities and even getting into the 110-115 MPH range. It's a ton of bat speed and very quick hands with the barrel exploding through the zone with little effort. There's some hitterish traits with Condon, as he has solid bat-to-ball skills, though he does have his struggles with spin. Defensively, Condon has enough speed and athleticism to handle a corner outfield spot, though if he outgrows the position, he can handle first base. The bat would have to continue to perform in that case and that's the selling point right now.

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8. C Jacob Cozart, NC State

Height: 6’3

Weight: 216

B/T: L/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 6 mo

Cozart is the latest to join a recent pipeline of NC State backstops and there's a chance he could be the best of the bunch. Instead of enduring a "sophomore slump," Cozart improved in all facets of his game, becoming a very well-rounded catcher with a budding bat. While he does struggle a bit with spin, Cozart's plate discipline is great and he's able to curb the strikeouts with solid contact rates. There's at least average power in his sweet lefty swing and it plays primarily to his pull side, but he's shown an ability to go up the middle and use the gaps. He shines on the defensive side, as he's one of the best defensive catchers in recent memory. He's a very good framer and has excellent actions behind the dish, as well as owning an above-average arm with solid pop times. It's above-average defense at the present with plus potential down the line. He was one of the best players to try out for the Collegiate National Team, as well.

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9. OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Texas A&M

Height: 6’2

Weight: 217

B/T: S/R

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 2 mo

Are you looking for someone with tools for days? Look no further than Braden Montgomery. The two-way star transferred to Texas A&M and will be looking to make an impact on both sides of the ball for the Aggies. He’s a force at the plate, as the switch-hitter has easy plus pop from both sides of the batter box. There were plenty of concerns about his approach and patience at the plate, but he greatly increased his walk rates and cut down on the strikeouts last year. He’s got the tools to project as a power corner outfielder as he has what might be the best arm in the draft class. It’s extremely accurate and has tons of carry. Montgomery also saw time on the bump as his fastball has been up to 97 MPH. He’s struggled quite a bit with command of his fastball, leading many to believe that he will eventually focus on being a bat only. He will likely be a day one call as many teams will want to take a shot on his physical tools and athleticism.

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10. 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone

Height: 6’5

Weight: 245

B/T: L/L

Draft Day Age: 21 yr 5 mo

Dubbed the "Ohtani" of college baseball, Caglianone is one of the most well-known players at the amateur level with legitimate two-way potential. There's a bit of rawness to his game, but the power on both sides of the ball are rather impressive. We'll start with the bat, which might have the best power in this entire class. It's easy double-plus at the present with extremely quick hand speed and torque, generating a ton of bat speed and all fields power. He's producing some of the loudest exit velocities in the country as a result. The hit tool could use some refinement, as he's rather aggressive and expands the zone frequently. On the defensive side, it's a first base profile. As an arm, Caglianone has loud stuff, but the command holds him back. The fastball has flirted with triple digits with some life, paired with a bullet-esque slider with solid potential. The change-up has excellent velocity separation and fading life, boasting a high whiff rate. The jury is still out on if he has to choose one or the other, but the upside on both sides is enticing.

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Prospects Live's Way-Too-Early 2024 Mock Draft

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again for consistency’s sake, the draft madness never ends. So, with the book now closed on the 2023 cycle, why not open the new book and dive into the 2024 cycle?

This is purely just for having some post-draft fun and is more of a practice in futility than legitimacy, but I’ll still put my best foot forward and put names to teams with a fifteen-pick mock. We’d go for the full first round, but doing so months before the lottery seems futile. We’ve already gotten plenty of solid looks at a good amount of players in this class, which will be a key part when we introduce our 2024 board updates later this summer.

Before we begin, here’s a look at what the lottery simulator randomized for this exercise. As a side note, while the Washington Nationals got the seventh pick, they’re going to be moved down to tenth. Here’s a quick rundown on why this is happening, written by Jim Callis last March: “Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.”

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#1 - Oakland Athletics: OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Preparatory School (LSU Commit)

Oakland got the short end of the deal in the 2023 lottery, dropping from a potential top-three pick to sixth overall, so the lottery plays nice this time around.

There’s only been one prep player to go 1.1 since 2018, Jackson Holliday in 2022. After reclassifying from the 2025 ranks, it’s easy to think that Konnor Griffin could be the next one. The size and physical projection stand out at first glance, but the toolset is extremely loud. It’s a polished hit tool and approach, burgeoning power, a plus run tool, as well as excellent defense in the outfield with a strong arm that has gotten up to 96 MPH. It’s legitimate five-tool potential here and guys like this don’t come around too often.

#2 - Detroit Tigers: 2B/SS Travis Bazzana, Oregon State

Detroit winds up being one of the biggest winners in this lottery, jumping up five spots from outside the lottery and up to the second overall selection.

It may be hot take material, but I’m not going to mince my words here: Travis Bazzana might just be the best collegiate bat in this class. The Aussie has terrorized Pac-12 pitching in his two years on campus thus far, showcasing a very polished hit tool with plenty of bat speed and a ton of contact. While he’s on the smaller side of the spectrum, the power he generates is rather impressive and robust. The profile is full of twitchiness, as well. He’s been limited to second base so far in Corvallis, but the expectation is that he’ll see time at shortstop in 2024.

#3 - St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest

The Cardinals are another big winner in this lottery, jumping up three spots to third overall.

They just got done adding some firepower to their farm system with Chase Davis, so why not add some more on the bump? Burns is an absolutely electric factory, sitting in the upper-90s with a heater that can get up to 102 MPH and a plus slider in the upper-80s that profiles as one of the best pitches in this class. There is a promising change-up, as well as a curveball, in his arsenal, too. He just committed to Wake Forest out of the transfer portal, and if 2023 was any indication of what that pitching lab is capable of, Burns could very well be the best arm in this class.

#4 - Kansas City Royals: 2B/3B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia

The Royals do drop a little bit in the lottery with the Tigers and Cardinals jumping them, but they still wind up with a top-five pick.

The college bat demographic appears to be the strongest part of this draft class, so why not dive into it with West Virginia superstar JJ Wetherholt? Wetherholt’s bat is one of the best in the country. It’s a short, compact swing that does plenty of damage to anything in the zone and the approach is pretty advanced already. He doesn’t get pull-happy and he’ll abuse the opposite field gap when he needs to, while also showing off very good juice to the pull side. He’s also a menace on the basepaths, registering 36 stolen bases in 2023. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there’s a chance that he can handle third base in 2024.

#5 - New York Yankees: 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest

The Yankees are the biggest winners in this run, jumping up twelve spots with minuscule odds into the top five.

Nick Kurtz has been a revelation for Wake Forest the past two seasons and he’s easily the frontrunner for the ACC Player of the Year award in 2024. A mountain of a human being, the offensive profile is scary good. There’s patience at the dish and he’ll rack up a ton of walks, but he’ll use the whole field to his advantage. Oh, and he’s got some of the best power in this class, grading out at plus presently and maybe even double-plus in the future. He’s rather athletic for his size and it shows at first base, which isn’t commonly known for robust defense. He’s one of the best defenders at the position in quite some time. The idea of Kurtz abusing the right field stands at Yankee Stadium is quite fun to dream about.

#6 - Colorado Rockies: OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina

Colorado gets the Oakland treatment in this lottery, going from being tied for the best odds at the first overall pick to the last pick in the lottery at sixth overall.

Colorado’s hitting development has been rather solid the past couple of years, with guys like Sterlin Thompson and Jordan Beck standing out in last year’s draft class. Much like Beck, Vance Honeycutt does bring some question marks with the hit tool, but the power potential is already obvious. There’s a ton of bat speed and he’s made approach improvements, slashing his strikeout rate considerably from 2022. Honeycutt’s defense is center is stellar and he’ll stick there long-term, plus he’s an incredible runner. If he can improve his contact consistency in 2024, Honeycutt’s upside may be the best in the class.

#7 - Chicago White Sox: RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa

Chicago does drop out of the lottery in this scenario, but they’ll move up a spot with Washington only able to pick as high as tenth in 2024.

Brecht has some of the biggest upside in the class with a robust two-pitch combination. He’s one of the hardest throwers in the class, consistently sitting in the mid-upper 90s, getting into triple-digits, with some lively action through the zone. The slider is absolutely electric with hard two-plane break in the upper-80s with an insane whiff rate and he’ll flash a firm change-up in the low-90s. His arm action creates plenty of deception, too. The biggest outlier here is that the command lags behind the stuff, but the expectation is that will improve as he’s now firmly focusing on baseball. If he can harness the stuff and improve a third offering, the upside is sky-high.

#8 - Pittsburgh Pirates: 1B/OF Charlie Condon, Georgia

A year after taking Paul Skenes first overall, the Pirates find themselves a bit lower in this draft, but they’re still in prime position.

Charlie Condon was one of the biggest revelations in the country in 2023, going from a redshirt year with no action to the SEC Freshman of the Year. Condon’s bat is insanely impressive, as the hit tool flashes real potential and there’s significant power in the bat. He has quick hands and plenty of bat speed, routinely posting exit velocities in the triple digits and exceeding 110 MPH at times. He’s currently hitting everything thrown his way on the summer circuit, as well. He might be a bit limited defensively, as he’s played first base and both corner outfield spots, but he’s got the tools to be given a legitimate chance to stick in the outfield. If so, the profile improves even more.

#9 - New York Mets: OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Transfer Portal

It may not be the kind of year that Mets fans were looking for, but getting a top-ten pick should provide some comfort.

Braden Montgomery transformed himself as a hitter in 2023, upping the walk rate significantly and improving his contact rates. He’s a switch-hitting outfielder with impressive power potential from both sides of the plate. There’s some swing-and-miss here, but the improved approach gives some hope that it’ll come down some more in 2024. He’s got one of the best arms in the entire class, a true bazooka of a right arm with impressive carry and accuracy from right field. He’s also been up to 98 MPH on the bump, but likely will have to ditch pitching at some point. Formerly at Stanford, Montgomery recently entered the transfer portal.

#10 - Washington Nationals: 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida

Just a little reminder that the new CBA doesn’t allow a team to have lottery picks two years in a row, so Washington gets bumped down to tenth overall despite being seventh in the simulation.

Despite this, the Nationals have a chance to get their hands on a high-risk, high-reward player in Jac Caglianone, college baseball’s Shohei Ohtani. He’s pretty raw and needs a bit of polish to his profile, but the two-way potential is legitimate. He’s been up to 99 MPH from the left side on the bump with a bullet slider and a solid change-up, but the command has been the biggest issue here. With the bat, Caglianone has explosive hand speed and double-plus power, but can get a bit aggressive with his approach and his contact rate needs improvement. If he can iron out some of these kinks in his profile, he’ll go high in 2024.

#11 - Chicago Cubs: 1B/OF PJ Morlando, Summerville HS (South Carolina commit)

The Cubs have been pretty aggressive in recent years with their draft strategy, so let’s keep that trend going.

South Carolina prepster 1B/OF PJ Morlando is one of the strongest kids we’ve seen in recent memory. There’s a ton of bat speed in this profile and he’s already pretty physical, which gives him a ton of power potential. He’s already been hitting second-deck tanks in batting practice at big league stadiums this summer. It’s a pretty advanced approach at the dish, too. It might end up being a first base profile, but he’s gotten some time in the outfield and could get a chance to start there at the next level.

#12 - San Diego Padres: OF Derek Curiel, Orange Lutheran HS (LSU commit)

The Padres certainly don’t shy away from the prep ranks in drafts, as that’s been their M.O. since the 2017 draft. We’ll keep that trend going in 2024.

Derek Curiel is one of the more famous names in this class, as he’s long been a performer on the circuit. It’s a nice and easy swing from the left side with a projectable frame, as well as some added bat speed. He’ll punish the gaps, but he may grow into all fields power when all is said and done. The hit tool is already pretty advanced, as he really knows the zone and doesn’t expand, as well as using the whole field to his advantage. He’s got great instincts and defense in center field, too.

#13 - Los Angeles Angels: LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas

A new year, but it’s the same idea with the Los Angeles Angels. Grab a guy who could be in the majors quickly.

Hagen Smith certainly fits that mold. A southpaw with pretty funky mechanics, command has been the biggest thing holding him back, but his stuff is absolutely electric. He’s been up to 97-98 MPH with the fastball, showcasing solid life through the zone, but it’s the slider that’s the selling point here. It’s a sweepy monster in the upper-80s that is super tough on lefties from the angle that he creates and flashes double-plus potential. He’ll tinker with a change-up, but it needs refinement. The potential here is fun to think about.

#14 - Minnesota Twins: 1B/3B Tommy White, LSU

Just a year after taking prep superstar Walker Jenkins with the fifth overall pick, the Twins may just stick with their type in 2024.

Tommy White fits their “slugger with an ability to hit” type. He lit up the ACC in 2022 with NC State and continued to do so in the SEC in 2023, being a catalyst for LSU’s championship run in Omaha. He has some of the best power in the class and it comes easy, as he can flick the ball to the opposite field and the pull side juice is rather robust. He limits strikeouts, but he’s in no rush to take walks, either. He’s gotten time at third base, but the range is rather limited, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see a move to first base at some point.

#15 - Seattle Mariners: OF/LHP Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS (LSU commit)

Seattle put together a solid class in 2023 with their abundance of picks on Day 1, and they’ll find themselves in the top fifteen in 2024 in this scenario.

Much like Griffin, Caminiti is a reclass from 2025, though it’s a different mold. Caminiti has legitimate two-way potential, as he backspins baseballs with ease from the left side with solid power potential, but the main selling point comes on the mound. Finding a prep southpaw that’s already into the mid-90s is rather rare, but that’s what Caminiti brings to the table. He’s also got a slurvy breaking ball with potential and a solid change-up, giving him very good upside on the bump.