I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again for consistency’s sake, the draft madness never ends. So, with the book now closed on the 2023 cycle, why not open the new book and dive into the 2024 cycle?
This is purely just for having some post-draft fun and is more of a practice in futility than legitimacy, but I’ll still put my best foot forward and put names to teams with a fifteen-pick mock. We’d go for the full first round, but doing so months before the lottery seems futile. We’ve already gotten plenty of solid looks at a good amount of players in this class, which will be a key part when we introduce our 2024 board updates later this summer.
Before we begin, here’s a look at what the lottery simulator randomized for this exercise. As a side note, while the Washington Nationals got the seventh pick, they’re going to be moved down to tenth. Here’s a quick rundown on why this is happening, written by Jim Callis last March: “Teams that receive revenue-sharing payouts can't receive a lottery pick for more than two years in a row and those that don't can't get a top-six choice in consecutive Drafts. Furthermore, a club that's ineligible for the lottery can't select higher than 10th overall.”
#1 - Oakland Athletics: OF Konnor Griffin, Jackson Preparatory School (LSU Commit)
Oakland got the short end of the deal in the 2023 lottery, dropping from a potential top-three pick to sixth overall, so the lottery plays nice this time around.
There’s only been one prep player to go 1.1 since 2018, Jackson Holliday in 2022. After reclassifying from the 2025 ranks, it’s easy to think that Konnor Griffin could be the next one. The size and physical projection stand out at first glance, but the toolset is extremely loud. It’s a polished hit tool and approach, burgeoning power, a plus run tool, as well as excellent defense in the outfield with a strong arm that has gotten up to 96 MPH. It’s legitimate five-tool potential here and guys like this don’t come around too often.
#2 - Detroit Tigers: 2B/SS Travis Bazzana, Oregon State
Detroit winds up being one of the biggest winners in this lottery, jumping up five spots from outside the lottery and up to the second overall selection.
It may be hot take material, but I’m not going to mince my words here: Travis Bazzana might just be the best collegiate bat in this class. The Aussie has terrorized Pac-12 pitching in his two years on campus thus far, showcasing a very polished hit tool with plenty of bat speed and a ton of contact. While he’s on the smaller side of the spectrum, the power he generates is rather impressive and robust. The profile is full of twitchiness, as well. He’s been limited to second base so far in Corvallis, but the expectation is that he’ll see time at shortstop in 2024.
#3 - St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Chase Burns, Wake Forest
The Cardinals are another big winner in this lottery, jumping up three spots to third overall.
They just got done adding some firepower to their farm system with Chase Davis, so why not add some more on the bump? Burns is an absolutely electric factory, sitting in the upper-90s with a heater that can get up to 102 MPH and a plus slider in the upper-80s that profiles as one of the best pitches in this class. There is a promising change-up, as well as a curveball, in his arsenal, too. He just committed to Wake Forest out of the transfer portal, and if 2023 was any indication of what that pitching lab is capable of, Burns could very well be the best arm in this class.
#4 - Kansas City Royals: 2B/3B JJ Wetherholt, West Virginia
The Royals do drop a little bit in the lottery with the Tigers and Cardinals jumping them, but they still wind up with a top-five pick.
The college bat demographic appears to be the strongest part of this draft class, so why not dive into it with West Virginia superstar JJ Wetherholt? Wetherholt’s bat is one of the best in the country. It’s a short, compact swing that does plenty of damage to anything in the zone and the approach is pretty advanced already. He doesn’t get pull-happy and he’ll abuse the opposite field gap when he needs to, while also showing off very good juice to the pull side. He’s also a menace on the basepaths, registering 36 stolen bases in 2023. He’s primarily been a second baseman, but there’s a chance that he can handle third base in 2024.
#5 - New York Yankees: 1B Nick Kurtz, Wake Forest
The Yankees are the biggest winners in this run, jumping up twelve spots with minuscule odds into the top five.
Nick Kurtz has been a revelation for Wake Forest the past two seasons and he’s easily the frontrunner for the ACC Player of the Year award in 2024. A mountain of a human being, the offensive profile is scary good. There’s patience at the dish and he’ll rack up a ton of walks, but he’ll use the whole field to his advantage. Oh, and he’s got some of the best power in this class, grading out at plus presently and maybe even double-plus in the future. He’s rather athletic for his size and it shows at first base, which isn’t commonly known for robust defense. He’s one of the best defenders at the position in quite some time. The idea of Kurtz abusing the right field stands at Yankee Stadium is quite fun to dream about.
#6 - Colorado Rockies: OF Vance Honeycutt, North Carolina
Colorado gets the Oakland treatment in this lottery, going from being tied for the best odds at the first overall pick to the last pick in the lottery at sixth overall.
Colorado’s hitting development has been rather solid the past couple of years, with guys like Sterlin Thompson and Jordan Beck standing out in last year’s draft class. Much like Beck, Vance Honeycutt does bring some question marks with the hit tool, but the power potential is already obvious. There’s a ton of bat speed and he’s made approach improvements, slashing his strikeout rate considerably from 2022. Honeycutt’s defense is center is stellar and he’ll stick there long-term, plus he’s an incredible runner. If he can improve his contact consistency in 2024, Honeycutt’s upside may be the best in the class.
#7 - Chicago White Sox: RHP Brody Brecht, Iowa
Chicago does drop out of the lottery in this scenario, but they’ll move up a spot with Washington only able to pick as high as tenth in 2024.
Brecht has some of the biggest upside in the class with a robust two-pitch combination. He’s one of the hardest throwers in the class, consistently sitting in the mid-upper 90s, getting into triple-digits, with some lively action through the zone. The slider is absolutely electric with hard two-plane break in the upper-80s with an insane whiff rate and he’ll flash a firm change-up in the low-90s. His arm action creates plenty of deception, too. The biggest outlier here is that the command lags behind the stuff, but the expectation is that will improve as he’s now firmly focusing on baseball. If he can harness the stuff and improve a third offering, the upside is sky-high.
#8 - Pittsburgh Pirates: 1B/OF Charlie Condon, Georgia
A year after taking Paul Skenes first overall, the Pirates find themselves a bit lower in this draft, but they’re still in prime position.
Charlie Condon was one of the biggest revelations in the country in 2023, going from a redshirt year with no action to the SEC Freshman of the Year. Condon’s bat is insanely impressive, as the hit tool flashes real potential and there’s significant power in the bat. He has quick hands and plenty of bat speed, routinely posting exit velocities in the triple digits and exceeding 110 MPH at times. He’s currently hitting everything thrown his way on the summer circuit, as well. He might be a bit limited defensively, as he’s played first base and both corner outfield spots, but he’s got the tools to be given a legitimate chance to stick in the outfield. If so, the profile improves even more.
#9 - New York Mets: OF/RHP Braden Montgomery, Transfer Portal
It may not be the kind of year that Mets fans were looking for, but getting a top-ten pick should provide some comfort.
Braden Montgomery transformed himself as a hitter in 2023, upping the walk rate significantly and improving his contact rates. He’s a switch-hitting outfielder with impressive power potential from both sides of the plate. There’s some swing-and-miss here, but the improved approach gives some hope that it’ll come down some more in 2024. He’s got one of the best arms in the entire class, a true bazooka of a right arm with impressive carry and accuracy from right field. He’s also been up to 98 MPH on the bump, but likely will have to ditch pitching at some point. Formerly at Stanford, Montgomery recently entered the transfer portal.
#10 - Washington Nationals: 1B/LHP Jac Caglianone, Florida
Just a little reminder that the new CBA doesn’t allow a team to have lottery picks two years in a row, so Washington gets bumped down to tenth overall despite being seventh in the simulation.
Despite this, the Nationals have a chance to get their hands on a high-risk, high-reward player in Jac Caglianone, college baseball’s Shohei Ohtani. He’s pretty raw and needs a bit of polish to his profile, but the two-way potential is legitimate. He’s been up to 99 MPH from the left side on the bump with a bullet slider and a solid change-up, but the command has been the biggest issue here. With the bat, Caglianone has explosive hand speed and double-plus power, but can get a bit aggressive with his approach and his contact rate needs improvement. If he can iron out some of these kinks in his profile, he’ll go high in 2024.
#11 - Chicago Cubs: 1B/OF PJ Morlando, Summerville HS (South Carolina commit)
The Cubs have been pretty aggressive in recent years with their draft strategy, so let’s keep that trend going.
South Carolina prepster 1B/OF PJ Morlando is one of the strongest kids we’ve seen in recent memory. There’s a ton of bat speed in this profile and he’s already pretty physical, which gives him a ton of power potential. He’s already been hitting second-deck tanks in batting practice at big league stadiums this summer. It’s a pretty advanced approach at the dish, too. It might end up being a first base profile, but he’s gotten some time in the outfield and could get a chance to start there at the next level.
#12 - San Diego Padres: OF Derek Curiel, Orange Lutheran HS (LSU commit)
The Padres certainly don’t shy away from the prep ranks in drafts, as that’s been their M.O. since the 2017 draft. We’ll keep that trend going in 2024.
Derek Curiel is one of the more famous names in this class, as he’s long been a performer on the circuit. It’s a nice and easy swing from the left side with a projectable frame, as well as some added bat speed. He’ll punish the gaps, but he may grow into all fields power when all is said and done. The hit tool is already pretty advanced, as he really knows the zone and doesn’t expand, as well as using the whole field to his advantage. He’s got great instincts and defense in center field, too.
#13 - Los Angeles Angels: LHP Hagen Smith, Arkansas
A new year, but it’s the same idea with the Los Angeles Angels. Grab a guy who could be in the majors quickly.
Hagen Smith certainly fits that mold. A southpaw with pretty funky mechanics, command has been the biggest thing holding him back, but his stuff is absolutely electric. He’s been up to 97-98 MPH with the fastball, showcasing solid life through the zone, but it’s the slider that’s the selling point here. It’s a sweepy monster in the upper-80s that is super tough on lefties from the angle that he creates and flashes double-plus potential. He’ll tinker with a change-up, but it needs refinement. The potential here is fun to think about.
#14 - Minnesota Twins: 1B/3B Tommy White, LSU
Just a year after taking prep superstar Walker Jenkins with the fifth overall pick, the Twins may just stick with their type in 2024.
Tommy White fits their “slugger with an ability to hit” type. He lit up the ACC in 2022 with NC State and continued to do so in the SEC in 2023, being a catalyst for LSU’s championship run in Omaha. He has some of the best power in the class and it comes easy, as he can flick the ball to the opposite field and the pull side juice is rather robust. He limits strikeouts, but he’s in no rush to take walks, either. He’s gotten time at third base, but the range is rather limited, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see a move to first base at some point.
#15 - Seattle Mariners: OF/LHP Cam Caminiti, Saguaro HS (LSU commit)
Seattle put together a solid class in 2023 with their abundance of picks on Day 1, and they’ll find themselves in the top fifteen in 2024 in this scenario.
Much like Griffin, Caminiti is a reclass from 2025, though it’s a different mold. Caminiti has legitimate two-way potential, as he backspins baseballs with ease from the left side with solid power potential, but the main selling point comes on the mound. Finding a prep southpaw that’s already into the mid-90s is rather rare, but that’s what Caminiti brings to the table. He’s also got a slurvy breaking ball with potential and a solid change-up, giving him very good upside on the bump.