2024 Pre-Season Top 100 Prospects Led by SS Jackson Holliday
Introducing the pSTFERA Suite - a new set of predictive ERA-estimators based on the Stuff of a given pitch, put on an ERA scale.
Previewing the 2022 Bowman Draft baseball card product with a focus on every player that has a 1st Bowman card. Here you will find the most desirable prospect cards from the majority of players from the 2022 MLB Draft including Jackson Holliday, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green, Kumar Rocker, and over 100 more prospects getting their first official Bowman card.
Every year a handful of college starters are overlooked for several reasons. Potential mid-rotation horses fall into the third round and beyond after being disqualified from their future ceiling. With that said, here are five names who have impressed me in 2022 with how they move on the bump, the stuff they’re currently working with, and what it could all look like in a couple years.
I might as well be paying rent at the backfields these days. It’s been quite a month. Let’s review.
RHP Sam Horn, Collins Hill (GA)
Date(s) seen: 4/18
A gaggle of scouts were in attendance on a chilly Monday evening to see Horn throw in his final Spring start. Despite an uneven performance and lofty hit and run totals (the defense behind Horn did little favors), there were plenty of positives to takeaway from the Mizzou QB commit’s outing. Horn has a projectable 6’4” 200 lb. build and pitches with a clean arm path, utilizing minimal amounts of effort to get to his low 90s velocity. The fastball sat at that range all evening and touched 94 and 95 early on, with plenty of arm side run and carrying action. The slider was 79-81 MPH with good feel for spin and strong vertical depth, showed potential for development into a plus pitch. Sprinkled in a few mid 80s changeups that were firm but showed potential with good tailing action, as well as a looping mid 70s curveball that appeared to be a work in progress. Command was a bugaboo early on, as Horn is learning to pitch with his stuff and left his fastball and slider over the middle to catch barrels. He found his spots with more regularity late and racked up double digit whiffs with both pitches. On talent alone he’s a million dollar arm, but commitment to play quarterback at an SEC program leaves some to believe that he might be done with pitching.
RF Colby Thomas, Mercer
Date(s) seen: 4/19
Mercer ventured up I-75 for a midweek matchup against Georgia Tech on April 19th, and Colby Thomas was the main attraction for the evaluators in attendance. The Bears’ right fielder guarded against sliders all night and was late on fastballs as a result. His hands will loop out at times and expose him inside, but he did a good job staying inside on a fastball running in and found the barrel going the other way. Did make solid contact on hanging slider, but the good ones got chases with poor results. Thomas looked solid in RF without much in the way of being challenged, showed good arm strength. Tools are as loud as prep days and he has gotten stronger, but determination on how well he can make adjustments to sliders in his developmental process will shape his draft stock.
SS Chandler Pollard, Woodward Academy (GA)
Date(s) seen: 4/21, 4/28
Chandler Pollard continued to demonstrate his impressive toolset in a couple of late season looks, showcasing good raw power on mistakes over the middle and running wild on opposing batteries in the likely event he gets on base. Hitterish traits were also on display, with quick twitch and strong wrists allowing him to adjust to well located pitches and generate good contact. In the field, there’s bounce and soft hands that typically allow him to range and handle a wide spectrum of opportunities, and his footwork on throws is improving as you’d hope with more reps.
RHP Marcus Johnson, Duke
Date(s) seen: 4/22
Johnson got the ball on Friday night for Duke in their series opener vs. the Yellow Jackets, and battled through some command issues to give his team five innings of work. The large and lean framed right hander works from a high 3Q armslot with a clean arm and plenty of tempo. The fastball sat in the low 90s all game and touched 94 early on, with plenty of running life. Worked best in on the hands of Georgia Tech’s right handed hitters for called strikes and weak contact, couldn’t get chases at the top of the zone. Worked off of the heater with a low 80s slider and mid 80s changeup. The slider had decent bite and could get whiffs when located low; mistakes left up were hit hard. Changeup had above average depth and flashed plus with fall off the table late drop, commanded well all night and was the go to pitch. Johnson’s feel for spin and athleticism make him very interesting clay, but progression with command to the edges is vital for his future as a starter.
3B Drew Compton, Georgia Tech
Date(s) seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Compton has really been able to showcase how loud his bat can be as of late, as he’s been doing big damage on fastballs and drove in five runs--including the game winner--in Tech’s 12-11 extra inning win over Duke. He does struggle with changeups and there’s some ambiguity on whether or not his long term home is third base, but the combination of power production, contact skills, and switch hitting flexibility gives Tech’s middle-of-the-order slugger a solid offensive floor in this draft class.
RHP Blake Gillespie, Next Level Academy (GA)
Date(s) seen: 4/26
Pitching in Academy Prospect League out at East Cobb, Blake Gillespie went out and handled business like you would expect against an overmatched Citadels lineup--throwing four scoreless innings with ten strikeouts. Gillespie’s frame is a bit smaller than the median prep pitching prospect at 6’1”, but projects to add strength with a presently lean build and high waist. Arm action is shorter but with some stiffness, doesn't exert much effort to get to velo and consistently held low 90s throughout outing. Fastball was 89-92 T93 MPH, primarily two seamer with good tail with some four seamers early with solid carry---spins both well and efficiently. Curveball was mid 70s with tight 11-5 vertical break, average to above average pitch.. Like the fastball, it got whiffs with regularity throughout outing. Flashed low 80s changeup with good depth but intermittent feel the table drop, as well as a singular 81 MPH slider with Julio Teheran style lateral movement. Worked both sides of a fairly wide zone, a few curveballs weren't finished but generally landed his pitches all outing.
LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami (FL)
Date(s) seen: 4/29
Palmquist is a lean lefty with physical characteristics--primarily sloped shoulders--that suggest he will continue to add strength in his developmental path. Clean arm, distributes his weight well in repeatable delivery that's not easy to repeat unless you're strong in your core and lower half. Low 3Q delivery that borders on sidearm. Head stays on target, some effort to velo. Fastball sat 88-91 T92 MPH, lots of arm side run and locates to both sides of the plate. Occasional miss over the middle will get driven, but is otherwise a groundball and broken bat machine. Will go upstairs when he needs to and can get whiffs due to flat VAA. Changeup was 79-82 with loads of run and tunnels well off FB when he's locating. Tonight that was an issue, and while there were some good ones thrown that got weak contact Palmquist never found his CH command. Slider is a sweepy mid 70s breaker that lacks sharpness at times, but creates a really uncomfortable look for LHH due to how far it starts out and how much lateral break it has. Awkward swings and takes in the zone from Tech lefties, and did finish under barrels late for whiffs. Command was a mixed bag; couldn't find his good changeup and a handful of mistakes with the cambio and fastball were punished by GT hitters. Worked fastball down to get quick groundball outs against the bottom of the order, really helped him get through seven innings without his best pitch.
RHP Alex McFarlane, Miami (FL)
Date(s) Seen: 4/30
Big frame, lean and high waisted. Works from lower 3Q armslot with some effort to get to velo. Fastball sat at 95-97 MPH and touched 98 on two occasions. True turbo sinker that is hard to elevate when he can locate below the beltline. Slider was 85-88 with short but sharp bite, good total movement and shape for that velocity band. In this single inning relief role, the arsenal flashes plus and can operate with more general command into the bottom half of the strike zone. Real late inning upside with additional development.
RHP Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech
Date(s) Seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Maxwell was moved back into a relief role about a month and a half ago, and has regained a few extra ticks on his fastball and slider in the process. Over my looks in April, Maxwell sat 95-98 with its usual high carry shape, touching 99 against Duke and 100 vs. Miami. The velocity plays up its whiff potential, though even at the ACC level it does get hit on occasion when Maxwell leaves it below the letters. The slider appears to have been tinkered with a bit in his last appearance, as it was up from 84-87 MPH to 87-90 MPH, with noticeably sharper vertical movement. It’s something to keep an eye on in May for Georgia Tech’s stopper, who has some of the best pure ability to spin both fastballs and breaking balls in this draft class.
Quick followups on Georgia Tech hitters from last set of notes that keep hitting
2B Chandler Simpson, Georgia Tech
Date(s) Seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Simpson showcased his innate ability to get the bathead out on about any pitch he offers at--even ones where he was fooled. A huge on base threat with blazing speed to take extra bases when the opportunity presents itself. Really good range and hands up the middle, but throwing issues have saddled him to second base for the time being. With that said, he still projects to be a valuable defensive asset there, and offers a high offensive floor with his potent combination of contact skills, plate discipline and easy 70 grade speed.
C Kevin Parada, Georgia Tech
Date(s) Seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Parada continues to demonstrate an elite ability to do damage on a full gamut of pitches in any part of the strike zone--punctuated by no doubt home runs off of Carson Palmquist and Karson Ligon this past weekend. Having some rougher outings behind the plate--particularly with throwing accuracy--but athleticism is still encouraging for development and bat plays at any spot on the defensive spectrum.
1B Andrew Jenkins, Georgia Tech
Date(s) Seen: 4/22, 4/29, 4/30
Jenkins has shown better defensive chops as of late at first base, with improved hands to take advantage of his advanced range at the position. The Yellow Jackets’ three hole hitter has had struggles against good sliders, but shows an ability to adjust in later plate appearances and does big time damage on fastballs and changeups. Some of the best realized game power in the draft class, and could offer really good value to a team that can help him make an adjustment to recognize sliders earlier in his swing process.
While certainly not concrete and all-encompassing, scouts have a way of siphoning the top right-handed talent to the top of draft boards every year. Especially in today’s baseball meta, there are qualifiers a right-handed college pitcher must possess should he hope to get selected in the first round of any given draft. There will always be outliers to any anecdotal model, but the modern right-handed arm is usually cut from a similar cloth.
First and foremost, there must be an element of velocity in his game. Scouts need to see the ability to throw hard, and you’ve got to miss bats as well. Generally, if a pitcher isn’t sitting north of 92 mph consistently, there’s very little chance they’ll hear their name on day one. And that’s the baseline, mind you. More than stuff alone, a right-handed pitcher must be able to command and control the baseball as well. Walks will lose you baseball games, and advanced hitters barrel up middle-middle cheese more often than not. The ability to work in and out, as well as up and down, is critical to the success of any starting pitcher.
A starting pitching prospect should have three pitches and the ability to control those pitches. The ability to command the fastball is a must. More and more, data plays a role in qualifying secondary pitches these days. Scouts like seeing big spin rates and appreciable markers that suggest future success. But some of those indicators in pitch design are discernable to the naked eye. I don’t need to show you TrackMan data to convince you Kumar Rocker’s slider is an extremely effective offering.
Starting pitchers also operate much different than most other arms. Scouts want to see athleticism and the ability to repeat. Pitchers who prove to be good athletes generally have the best chance to see more gains in their development moving forward in professional ball. Athleticism helps with efficiency and fluidity on the mound and can be a prerequisite to a player’s ability to repeat their release. Pitchers that are max-effort and rigid in their operation end up being relievers as they lack longevity and their command wavers earlier in outings.
Armed with a 99 mph fastball and a wipeout slider, Tennessee RHP Blade Tidwell has the makings of a big league ace. He could be the first starting pitcher off the board in the 2022 MLB Draft. Tidwell spent the offseason re-shaping his fastball... 👀 https://t.co/oiDg9ETDg7
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) December 20, 2021
Tidwell was a big name in the 2020 MLB Draft, but went unselected due to his bonus demands, ending up in Knoxville. That has paid dividends. Tidwell has the prototype body, the athleticism and some low-hanging fruit in terms of development right in front of him that could vault his name into Top 10 conversations come July.
Tidwell’s full arsenal includes the fastball touching 99, more comfortably resting 94-95 most nights. He was living closer to 96 this summer for the Collegiate National Team. Tidwell focused on Clean Fuego training this summer in an attempt to get more ride out of his heater, experimenting more and more with attacking at the top of the zone, a tact the University of Tennessee has generally shied away from adopting in recent years. At his best, Tidwell was resting north of 19 inches of IVB, touching 22 inches at times. That would play beautifully in 2022. He works in a firm mid-80s bat-missing slider that presents more sweep than it does depth, and shows a fringier high-70s curveball that he struggles to command or throw with complete conviction. The changeup shows promising shape, though feel and command for the offering is still a work-in-progress as well. The book here is arm talent and projection, both of which are substantial.
Over 98.2 innings in 2021, Tidwell pitched to a 3.74 ERA, punching out 90 hitters and walking just 34. The opposition struggled to hit Tidwell, but when they did it would too often come in the form of homers. He made huge strides this summer for the Collegiate National Team, and the results were encouraging. In 31 plate appearances against the best hitters in the country, Tidwell saw his strikeout rate spike to 29 percent, his fastball generating a 33 percent whiff rate. Those are the kinds of numbers scouts like seeing when projecting out a future top-of-the-rotation horse.
One of the reasons Arkansas RHP Peyton Pallette gets the acclaim he does is the curveball. Pallette averaged north of 3000 RPM in 2021, *elite* spin rates. He also throws his CB close to 80 mph, another top-of-the-scale figure suggesting future success. pic.twitter.com/yjBNhGUlRd
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) December 26, 2021
Pallette gets a ton of comparisons to Dodgers hurler Walker Buehler, and for good reason. It’s a lean, 6-foot-1-inch 180-pound frame with exceptional arm speed and a super-efficient lower body operation. That’s the book oh Buehler too. You could argue Pallette presents the best two-pitch combo of any starting pitching prospect in the class.
The fastball-curveball one-two punch from Pallette can be absolutely devastating. The heater touched 99 last season, sitting 93-95 with ease. It’s a high-spin offering with some inefficiencies in terms of spin direction and spin efficiency, something that could truly unlock another gear to his stuff at the top of the zone. While Pallette fills up the zone and commands the fastball well, its shape precludes the ability to generate a ton of swing and miss right now. The curveball is as dynamic as they come, touching 84 mph, sitting comfortably in the low-80s. It’s got spin rates exceeding 3000 rpms, as well as the vertical hammer shape teams covet. The pitch shape and metrics are elite here. Pallette isn’t as comfortable throwing strikes with the breaking ball, but most believe he shows enough feel to project at least a plus out-pitch as a pro. Pallette does possess a below average changeup and has flirted with a cutter as well. Optimists see a potential starter with two plus pitches and a usable off-speed pitch to offer against left-handed hitters.
Pallette has 61.2 innings to his name in Fayetteville, striking out 70 and issuing just 23 walks. He dealt with shoulder fatigue in 2021 so staying healthy in 2022 will be critical to reach his draft-ceiling in July, especially considering his lean frame. Analytically motivated organizations would covet Pallette and his intrinsic abilities on the mound. He certainly has the upside of a top ten pick.
Run it back pic.twitter.com/1Z7mCCUWQS
— Landon Sims (@landoosims) January 1, 2022
If Pallette doesn’t have the best one-two punch in college baseball, Sims probably does. The electric Sims was as dominant a reliever as you could find in college baseball in 2021, transitioning into a rotation role for the 2022 campaign.
It would be hard to argue for anybody but Sims having the most dominant fastball in college baseball last season. He sat 93-96, reaching back for 98. The ball explodes out of the hand, creating some of the best-performing metrics in the country. Sims threw his fastball for strikes almost 70 percent of the time. Those that swung at the heater whiffed through it more than 40 percent of the time; an outlandish figure at any level. As if those numbers weren’t impressive enough, opposing hitters chased Sims’ fastballs outside of the zone almost 30 percent of the time. Elite whiff rates. Elite chase rates. Pounded the zone. What’s not to like? Sims has a low release and innate deception. If the velocity continues to tick up, this could be a double-plus fastball. The slider is just as dynamic, averaging north of 85 mph and touching 88. Sims attacks hitters from the right side of the rubber and employs more sweep than depth on his slider, though most would characterize the breaking ball as short. It gains effectiveness through tunneling and deception. It plays up thanks to sublime command. It’s at least above average, though most believe it could be plus when all is said and done. Sims really hasn’t shown a changeup or curveball yet, something scouts will want to see in 2022.
Sims has 69.1 innings in his collegiate career despite never starting a game. He has no problem working multiple innings in crunch time. In those innings, he’s punched out an astronomical 123 hitters, issuing just 22 walks. If he carries anything close to that sort of production into the rotation, he could be the first arm off the board in July.
NO-HITTER.
— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) June 9, 2019
19 STRIKEOUTS.
VANDERBILT’S KUMAR ROCKER JUST MADE HISTORY! pic.twitter.com/Q05eYikbbR
After being selected 10th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft, the New York Mets and Rocker could not come to an agreement on a pro contract. Because of this, Rocker will give it another go in 2022. The narrative is long and exhausted. The concerns over his medicals after reports surfaced that he failed his physical with the Mets post-draft will be the storyline to watch this go around. To date, Rocker and his camp have been entirely absent from the public since July.
The weaponry is well-chronicled. A fastball that has been up to 98.6 but more often sits 93-95. The heater has strong riding characteristics and was swung through more than 31 percent of the time last season, an exceptional figure. The breaking ball is wicked with tremendous depth and deception, grading as high as plus-plus by evaluators. The cutter flashes above average and a changeup that is below average more often than not. It’s a full repertoire and figures to only improve at the pro level.
I’m still 100 percent in on Rocker. It still looks like top-of-the-rotation stuff to me and the operation works over long innings. It’s at least three pitches in his arsenal, probably four as he continues to mature. The concerns over his medicals will certainly be a point of emphasis, as they should be. If it’s shoulder-related, the caution ramps up a bit, but even if Rocker needs to go under the knife for Tommy John Surgery, it’s hard to imagine him not coming back and performing as he has since he was 16 years old. The track record is long and storied. Don’t overthink it.
The last Gonzaga Bulldog drafted in the first round was Seattle Mariners southpaw Marco Gonzales in 2013. That may change in 2022. RHP Gabriel Hughes is often referred to as "electric" by those who have evaluated him. The fastball touches 96 and the slider can be devastating. pic.twitter.com/jAX7TwGg9h
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) January 2, 2022
There’s perhaps no other pitcher in the country more likely to explode onto the scene in 2022 than Gonzaga’s Hughes. A two-way guy in 2021, he broke his hand after getting hit by a pitch, costing him much of the year. That said, in 10 starts, he showed all he needed to get scouts juiced for the product of Eagle, Idaho.
At 6-foot-4, 220 pounds, Hughes is a power arm with the three-pitch mix evaluators covet. The fastball generally sat 91-94 last season, touching 96. He was more 92-95 this summer for the Collegiate National Team, again north of 96. Opposing hitters swung through the heater almost 30 percent of the time last season, but even when they did get bat-to-ball, Hughes avoided barrels. He throws a power-slider that he commands reasonably well glove-side with gyro-bullet spin. It tunnels the fastball well and can be un-hittable when he’s got feel for it. This could eventually be a plus slider. There’s a whole lot more in the tank with Hughes too. He’s an exceptional athlete showcasing a big leg kick and the ability to really ride down the mound, repeating his release consistently. It’s a high waist and long levers. It’s not hard to envision a guy throwing 94-98 in short order as he continues to mature.
Hughes has 73 collegiate innings under his belt with 80 strikeouts and 36 walks. Harnessing more command for his entire arsenal will be a point of emphasis in 2022. If he fills up the zone, the stuff is so good his baseball card is going to be quite gaudy.
Others to Watch: Adam Maier, Oregon; Marcus Johnson, Duke; Henry Williams, Duke; Eric Adler, Wake Forest; Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State; Jonathan Cannon, Georgia; Bryce Osmond, Oklahoma State; Jarred Karros, UCLA; Josh White, Cal; Alex McFarlane, Miami; Mason Barnett, Auburn; Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech; Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State; Jacob Meador, TCU; Derek Diamond, Ole Miss; Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly; Brandon Sproat, Florida; Max Rajcic, UCLA; Andrew Taylor, Central Michigan; Mack Anglin, Clemson; Will Childers, Georgia; Brandon Birdsell, Texas Tech; Liam Simon, Notre Dame; Carter Rustad, Missouri; Aaron Nixon; Texas; Nick Maldonado, Vanderbilt; Tyler Nesbitt, Florida; Jackson Finley, Georgia Tech; John Modugno, Indiana; Eric Reyzelman, LSU; Troy Melton; San Diego State; Devereaux Harrison, Long Beach State; Sebastian Keane, Northeastern; Andrew Mosiello, Oregon; Sam Highfill, NC State; Matthew Wyatt, Virginia; Jake Brooks, UCLA; Parker Stinnett, Mississippi State; Jackson Fristoe, Mississippi State; Cade Winquest, Texas-Arlington; Will Frisch, Oregon State; Luis Ramirez, Long Beach State; Seth Halvorsen, Tennessee; Mark Adamiak, Arkansas; Cam Schlitter, Northeastern; Cam Weston, Michigan; Nick Durgin, Stetson; There are so many others…….
