A little more than two months out from the 2022 MLB Draft, it’s time to tackle the first MailBag of the year. Cannot thank you enough for the questions. Let’s plan on doing these every couple weeks.
Let’s ride.
Jacob this is a great question and one I’m really looking forward to tackling.
Let’s make one thing clear right out of the gate; Berry can really hit. The average, the walk rate, the lack of strikeouts, it all points to a mature, advanced hitter who should have no issue transitioning to pro ball. That said, in terms of the power, from this chair Berry gets most of his game power from a highly-efficient bat path and sublime barrel control. His exit velocities support that notion.
While Berry’s average exit velocity ranks in the 91st percentile in college baseball, his max exit velocity ranks in the 79th percentile. That’s still impressive, but probably not what you’d expect from a “prototype” power hitter. In fact, if you take Berry’s average exit velocity and do the adjustment to wooden bats, his average exit velocities would line up with the 2021 versions of David Peralta, Jorge Polanco and Dansby Swanson. If you want to use max exit velocity comparisons, he compares favorably to names like Tommy LaStella and Garrett Hampson from 2021. Keep in mind, this is against college competition and not the competition these professional hitters face on a nightly basis.
At the end of the day, it’s almost impossible to argue with the production and approach the Berry provides at the plate. I think it’s mostly an optimized swing for lifting the ball, similar to how Alex Bregman currently finds his power. Nobody is saying Bregman has plus raw power, but he knows how to use the Crawford Boxes to flirt with 30-bomb production. Berry is similar. He may not light up a Trackman unit, but he’ll probably park quite a few balls in the first handful of rows in right field as a pro. Thus, ending up with a team like the Yankees would be a perfect fit.
Great question, Cameron. I think there’s a pretty big difference between Parada and the three you mentioned.
For starters, I’d agree, it’s an impressive bat. There’s hard to find any warts here. The strikeout rate is healthy, the exit velocities are gaudy, and there isn’t a single pitch or zone he’s struggled to handle at Georgia Tech. I would put Parada’s bat on par with any of the three you mentioned. And let the record show, I do think there’s some 1.1 potential here.
But let’s talk about the differences. Adley Rutschman and Henry Davis were both considered talented defensive backstops as well. Bart too, to a lesser degree. All three were considered better bets to stick behind the plate than is Parada. The issues with Parada surround his arm strength and struggles to control the running game. Over the last two seasons, Parada has thrown out just 14 of the 85 base-stealers that have tested his arm. That’s actually improved quite a bit in 2022 having thrown out 7 of the 33 threats. That’s a shade over 20 percent this season and roughly 16 percent for his collegiate career. For comparison, big league catchers throw out about 30 percent of their runners and most would agree the guys stealing bases at the highest level are better, more advanced runners. That will obviously need to improve with scouts pointing to mechanics and pure arm strength as areas needing addressed.
For now, Parada projects a fringy defensive catcher who may eventually need to move to first base or a corner outfield role to get the most out of his value. Maybe he ends up an Andrew Vaughn type of player. But the risk of him having to move out of the middle of the field weighs on his draft stock.
Dig this question. This pitching class is absolutely loaded. Maybe the best ever? You could probably make the case for close to 15 prep arms being options in the first round this year. Obviously that many won’t go that early, but that sort of crop is fairly unprecedented.
In terms of a few personal favorites to watch that might command 7-figure bonuses…
Seth Keller, RHP, Hanover (VA)
A smaller, twitchy middle infielder by trade, Keller has quietly developed into one of the more exciting prep pitching prospects available on day two in the draft. Keller has an explosive delivery with a bit of effort, but the athleticism is jaw-dropping and the arm is super quick. Up to 95, Keller primarily sits 90-93 and holds his velocity deep into outings. His fastball explodes at the plate with late hop and deception. He throws a firm, hard slider in the upper 70s with two plane break and plenty of sweep. He's shown feel for a change and a loopier curveball as well. If a team believes in the starter traits here moving forward. Keller was very good at NHSI and impressed.
Cade Obermueller, LHP, City High (IA)
Obermueller is smaller in stature, but his athleticism on the bump is incredible. The ease of which he operates has scouts awfully interested. There's definitive starter traits here with a buttery delivery and the ability to throw three pitches for strikes. The fastball sits in the low 90s, though he's been able to work a bit higher than that in indoor showcases. The slider is a haymaker, routinely registering spin rates north of 3000, even topping 3200 on its best nights. Obermueller also offers a changeup that's a work in progress. It's a low, three-quarters delivery with some hop in the zone, a trait pro teams will likely covet.
Jake Clemente, RHP, Marjory Stoneman Douglas (FL)
Clemente is a big-time power arm who's been up to 97 with a heavy arm-side run and sink from a low three-quarter slot. Clemente works in a power slider in the low-80s with short, tight break though he struggles to command it. He's also got a low-80s changeup that has shape, though it too lacks command and consistency at the moment. Clemente has fantastic rhythm and athleticism on the bump and throws plenty of strikes. if the breaking ball and changeup tick up, he's got starter upside and should throw very hard with a mid-leverage reliever profile as a floor.
Georgia Tech RHP Zach Maxwell is a bit of a freak. It might be the best fastball, analytically speaking, in the 2022 class. He’s been up to 101 as a multiple-inning reliever with a powerful slider up to 91. Maxwell has always had immense arm talent, though harnessing it has been the issue at times.
Georgia Tech has worked hard to try to get Maxwell into a starter role a couple times over the past couple seasons, but his command ultimately end up his undoing. At time of publish, Maxwell has 28 walks in 36 innings this season. That’s actually a step in the right direction as he walked 57 batters in 46.1 innings in 2020 and 2021 combined. At this point, I think most are wholly convinced Maxwell will be a reliever at the next level. That said, he probably represents one of the top three relief profiles available in this class.
Given his versatility and willingness to work in multiple different roles, Maxwell will be sought in the draft. We personally think he’s a third or fourth-round value, though it should surprise nobody if he’s selected earlier than that.