Every year a handful of college starters are overlooked for several reasons. Sometimes it’s their ability to consistently throw strikes. Sometimes it revolves around the body; their physical projection or lack of a prototypical starter frame. Sometimes it’s as simple as the lack of a true third pitch. There’s several reasons why area scouts and cross-checkers deem an arm a future reliever. That designation immediately saps that player’s draft stock. But every single year, scouts miss. Potential mid-rotation horses fall into the third round and beyond after being disqualified from their future ceiling.
A handful of arms exceed their draft value each year. In 2020, Bryce Bonnin lacked a third pitch, struggled with command, and had a “reliever delivery” with his “lack of athleticism” leading scouts to believe he’d always have a hard time repeating on the mound. The Reds drafted him in the third round. He’s pitching like a future power mid-rotation arm and can be spotted on Top 100 Prospect lists.
Spencer Strider, maybe the darling of the 2020 draft, lacked college innings. He missed significant time after having Tommy John surgery. When he was on the mound, he struggled with command and showed more effort than you’d like to see. But he could rush it up to 97 and hardly got the chance to showcase the slider during his recovery. A fourth round selection, Strider has developed into a mid-rotation stud with potentially more upside as he gets innings under his belt.
There are others too. Jake Eder, RJ Dabovich, Brandon Pfaadt and Taylor Dollard were all selected after the top two rounds and are paying major dividends for their respective organizations.
In 2021, teams let guys like Nick Nastrini, and Bryce Miller slip further than they should have. The Blue Jays drafted lefty Ricky Tiedemann in the third round, though scouts wondered if his stuff would play at the next level. He was hit around at the JUCO level, his fastball shape and arm stroke showing inconsistencies from start to start. But Tiedemann has always been a supreme athlete. That athlete is now pounding the zone and showcasing a diabolical fastball-slider-changeup arsenal. Tiedemann figures to be a mainstay on Top 100 lists at season’s end.
Virginia righty Griff McGarry may be the hidden gem from 2021, a fifth round pick by the Phillies. McGarry checked every imaginable metric box teams like to see. The stuff was never in question. But he struggled immensely with control and command, living “effectively wild” for the Cavaliers. Credit to Philadelphia; they unlocked something in McGarry. At time of publish, the 23-year-old boasts 125 strikeouts in just 71 pro innings, issuing 38 free passes along the way. That 4.8 BB/9 probably isn’t yet sustainable as he works his way up the pro ladder for a starter, but it’s also considerably better than his eye-popping 8.8 BB/9 from 2020 and 2021 combined on campus.
So what are we looking for here? What’s the common thread? Well, for starters (no pun intended), most of these guys showcased velocity at one point or another as well as the feel for spin or a plus breaking ball. But the major key? Almost every guy on this list is an impressive athlete. They really get down the mound, showing feel for how their bodies work and move. A good scout can see the building blocks of untapped potential.
With that said, here are five names who have impressed me in 2022 with how they move on the bump, the stuff they’re currently working with, and what it could all look like in a couple years.
RHP Trystan Vrieling, Gonzaga
I got the chance to watch Vrieling in-person just once this season in a gut-it-out, grindy performance against a tough Pepperdine lineup. He struggled with his fastball command over the course of six innings, issuing six free passes but allowing tons of soft contact throughout. He punched out eight batters along the way. Vrieling was 91-95 that day with a dynamic slider and a curveball that really got hitters off the heat. I had him with 22 whiffs on 114 pitches.
The performance lives in a vacuum and isn’t indicative of the type of player I think Vrieling could become. The pure stuff is quite good. Vrieling was up to 96 this season and both of his breaking balls possess above average-to-plus spin rates. He also works in a changeup, though it’s largely below average right now. But it’s the body and operation that really have me jazzed. Vrieling is a 6-foot-4-inch righty with a high waist, long legs and a loose operation. He gets down the mound quite well and showcases balance and control out in front. It’s the type of frame and athletic motion that unlocks more juice as a pro. It’s a buttery delivery with a track record of throwing a lot of pitches in tight contests. If Vrieling can iron out what some believe to be fringe-average command, he’s got a shot to reach what I believe to be a no. 4 starter ceiling. This is the type of kid that is sitting 93-95 touching 97 with a plus slider and an average curveball. The whole package and frame isn’t too dissimilar from Miller, the eventual 113th pick in the 2021 draft.
RHP Connor Staine, Central Florida
Staine was a preseason favorite of ours in February and March leading up to the 2022 spring season. He really delivered on those beliefs. Staine began the season on a 33.2-inning streak without allowing an earned run. He struck out 41 hitter during that span. He cooled off a bit as the season came to an end eventually allowing nine earned runs over 43.1 IP, striking out 51 this season. Staine ran out of gas and dealt with blisters the second-half of the year.
Staine is a 6-foot-4-inch, 200-pound righty with a chiseled, athletic frame and long limbs. He’s not quite as loose as Vrieling, but he does do a good job of getting out in front of his body and repeating his motion. The stroke is a bit longer in the back, but Staine is on-time at foot plant and pounded the zone during the front-half of the season. It’s a super-quick arm that projects to throw pretty damn hard as he develops in professional ball. We had Staine up to 98 this season, though Trackman had him peaking a tick lower at 97. He rests 93-94 as the game goes on. On top of the pure velocity, Staine has the exploding fastball scouts love to see popping north of 22 inches of IVB at times, consistently sitting above 19 inches. It’s a bat-missing heater. He couples that with a solid-average slider that features two-plane break, though I’d like to see him work to throw the pitch a bit firmer as he’s usually 81-83 with it. There’s a get-me-over curveball in here too that shows definitive upside, though he casts it a bit with his arm speed and will need to work to throw it with more conviction. All of the building blocks are here for a future mid-to-backend of the rotation starter should his stuff tick up like I anticipate it will. I’m all over this in round two and he should be considered a steal in round three.
RHP Henry Williams, Duke
Admittedly, Williams will be a tough evaluation for teams this year. He missed the entire 2022 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery in December. That said, it was an impressive 2021 campaign, punching out 45 batters in 37 innings, issuing just ten free passes. Williams won’t pitch for his new organization in 2022, but he would be awfully exciting clay headed into 2023.
Williams frame and operation are selling points for me. This is a 6-foot-5-inch frame, carrying just 200 pounds with long levers and lanky athleticism. Last season, Williams touched 95 and sat 92-93 in virtually every inning. This past fall, he touched 96 with a ride-and-run type fastball. It’s an above average slider in the low-to-mid 80s and a more average changeup with some faint fading action late. He commands all three pitches very well. Given the balance and ease of which he operates, it’s quite easy to project a future arm chucking 93-95, touching the high-90s with two solid average offerings. Williams doesn’t yet have a true bat-missing weapon, but this is the type of guy that turns into a solid no. 4 starter and an innings-eater at that.
RHP Zach Maxwell, Georgia Tech
Maxwell is a big-bodied righty with a special right arm and a track record of punching tickets better than most. But throwing strikes has been a challenge at times. Over 51.1 innings this season, Maxwell walked 41 hitters. That’s actually an improvement ovre the 57 batters he walked in his first 46.1 collegiate innings at Georgia Tech. Still, the stuff is so special, Maxwell was able to post a 4.24 ERA in his career.
Ordinarily, Maxwell wouldn’t fit my typical prototype mold here. But McGarry, and to a lesser extent Reds 2021 seventh round pick Kevin Abel, have me feeling some sort of way. McGarry (8.8 BB/9) and Abel (5.3 BB/9) both walked a staggering number of batters in college. Maxwell (7.2 BB/9 in 2022) fits somewhere in that mold too. Maxwell has a large 6-foot-7-inch, 275-pound frame, though he moves well and is a decent athlete. He’s got a super quick arm registering fastball velos north of 100 mph featuring immense ride and elite metrics. He works in an upper-80s slider up to 91 mph that is consistently plus when commanded around the zone. There’s a firm changeup in there too, though it dramatically lags behind his two premium weapons. I’d like to see a team give him a shot at starting, just to say they did. He is almost certainly destined for a leverage role in a bullpen, but if a team can get this guy straightened out and cut that strikeout rate in half like what the Phillies have achieved with McGarry, there’s no. 3 starter upside here. The more than likely outcome, however, is a Jonathan Broxton type of player.
RHP Michael Knorr, Coastal Carolina
Knorr is a bit older for this class having just turned 22 in his senior year with the Chanticleers. A 40th round selection by the Padres in 2018, Knorr ended up at school and had a fantastic senior year, posting a 3.39 ERA over 69 innings, punching out 86 and walking just 13 batters this season. In fact, Knorr walked more than one batter just twice in 13 starts.
Knorr is a tall glass of water standing 6-foot-5, 245 pounds on the mound. It’s an imposing presence with the arsenal to match. Routinely north of 94, Knorr touched 99 this season with a metrically appealing fastball, though he struggles to spot the pitch at the top of the zone whether by design or lack of command. He’s got a short, upper-80s slider that is a true weapon as it tunnels off the fastball for a very long time. Knorr is short to the plate and seems to be at the precipice of unlocking what he’s capable of after three difficult years at Cal State Fullerton. We’re talking about a guy that throws a ton of strikes, has two definitive plus pitches at their best, and is on an upward trajectory of understanding how his body works. Knorr could be a quick-mover and a guy who bursts onto the scene in 2023.