Welcome to this week’s edition of Prospect Live’s dynasty league notes! Every week, we will be updating you with relevant analysis that could help you with roster decisions for your respective dynasty teams. Please note, however, that this isn’t simply a “stock up, down” report. My goal with this series is to go beyond the simple storylines of “player X is playing well”. Rather, whether it’s changing pitch mixes, approach shifts, buy-low/sell-high targets, progress reports on young players, or deep-league sleepers, I will be diving deep to develop storylines that may not be as widely covered. Our great team at Prospects Live has done a fabulous job with their daily minor-league write ups. Thus, when adding on the fact that there is less data with minor-league players, these notes will generally focus on the major-league side.
Between a superstar getting back on track, pitch-mix changes for young gems in Miami, and two former top prospects who need to hit for more power, there is a lot to get to this week. Without further ado, let us get right into the notes!
Is Christian Yelich Back To Being a Fantasy Star?
It’s crazy to think about this now, but Christian Yelich was on track to win back-to-back MVPs late into the 2019 season. Sadly, that’s where things took a turn for the worse. A foul ball went right into his kneecap, fracturing it in the process, and since then, Yelich hasn’t been the same. In 2020, he still mustered a 113 wRC+, but needed an 18.6% walk rate to get there; his .205 batting average without superb power (.225 ISO) made him a much more standard fantasy asset than the star he had previously been.
Early into this season, it was much of the same for Yelich; a lot of walks, but a low batting average with a lot of strikeouts and little power. As the season went on, patience of a rebound started to fade, with many assuming Yelich simply would never be the same again following the injury.
Yet, some of this might be overblown. Yelich’s home-to-first times are definitely down following the injury, but he still mustered a 94th percentile max exit velocity, so the power shouldn't have dissipated. Rather, it was his passive that stood out as a problem. His zone swing rate last year sat at just 57.7%, while he also ran a 19.7% called-strike rate. These are concerning numbers, and that passiveness carried over into this season.
However, something might have changed for Yelich. After returning from the COVID-19 list on August 7th, he’s been a much different player. Here are his swing rates per month:
April: 39.1%
May: 38.5%
June: 37.7%
July: 38.9%
August: 43.7%
Okay, now I’m intrigued. I’m wondering if there is more here. Well, of course there is!
Yep, there’s definitely something here. Most of Yelich’s gains have been against fastballs in the zone, which fits the narrative very well here. Remember, he’s also dealt with other ailments this year, such as a back problem, that have impacted his performance. If he’s fully healthy now, this would explain the increase success against fastballs. I’m also sure the “sticky stuff” crackdown has helped him here, which also would be quite logical. Regardless, this appears to have some legs to it.
Yelich’s 9.4% swinging strike rate for this season is right on line with previous years, so I expect the strikeout rate to continue to go down. That leaves us wondering on the power, though there are also encouraging sings here as well.
The power production isn’t completely back for Yelich, but if he continues to hit the ball in the air more, I’m confident his 10% barrel rate in August will be boosted in the future; it’s currently skewed by a lot of pop-ups, but I’m most focused on his overall process- his raw power is still elite. His 8.7% solid contact suggests he’s falling just short of a barrel, which also adds optimism about his power. In simple terms, trust that the power will come back.
I recently anointed Cody Bellinger as the top buy-low candidate in dynasty, and he probably still is given his age. However, for win-now teams, Yelich is an appealing option. Trade deadlines have likely past by now, but come offseason time, he’s someone any contending team should have in mind. The batting average is coming back and the power will soon; that’s precisely what we’re looking for. Ironically, less walks might make him an inferior “real-life” player, so good thing we’re playing FANTASY baseball. I’m not someone who is going to assume every hot stretch is legitimate, though you’d be hard-pressed not to buy into the idea that Yelich’s fantasy value has been resurrected. Thank goodness for that!
The Morphing of Aces In Miami
News flash: the Marlins have an a lot of exciting young pitchers. Trevor Rogers and Pablo Lopez have been fantastic, Sixto Sanchez will be back next season, Edward Cabrera just made his MLB debut, while Max Meyer, Jake Eder also are still in the minors. However, the two pitchers I want to focus on in that organization are Sandy Alcantara and Jesus Luzardo. Both of these pitchers have been hyped up for a long time, but their results have been slightly underwhelming. That looks prime to change soon, though.
Let us start with Alcantara, who has definitely been productive at the MLB level. Heading into Saturday, his 3.35 ERA and 3.97 SIERA were fine numbers, while he consistently goes deep into games and helps you with his WHIP (1.12). The missing piece, though, was the strikeouts. He had struck out just 22.5% of the batters he had faced, which is odd for someone who hits the triple digits with ease.
Or, is it? Alcantara has been using a sinker about 27.9% of the time this season. While it is extremely effective (.291 wOBA allowed) and limits barrels (2.7%), it only has a 17.9% whiff rate.
There is a lot to take away here. It seems like Alcantara is leaning on his four-seamer slightly more than the sinker; the four-seam can get more whiffs while the sinker is still used enough to get ground balls. Mainly, though, the decrease in his overall fastball usage, combined with an increase in his slider usage, is the most exciting change here. It’s an elite pitch with a 39.7% whiff rate and its velocity (90.3 MPH), making it a logical pitch to lean on. I mean, just look at this:
Over his past four starts, Alcantara has raised his slider rate to 32.1%. In that span, he boasts 33.3% strikeout rate and is still managing to induce a ground ball on 50.8% of the batted-ball events against him. More of this, please.
If the Marlins didn’t have enough pitching, they were able to flip two months of Starling Marte into Jesus Luzardo; quite the haul. However, there’s a reason Luzardo was available. Prior to Sunday, he had posted a paltry 7.91 ERA and 9.4% K-BB ratio, and his early run with the Marlins (five starts, 9.67 ERA) had gone poor.
Regardless of the results, Luzardo has been someone I’ve kept a close eye on since he was acquired by Miami. Even with the lack of success, he’s still induced a 13.5% swinging strike rate, meaning that poor command was what was hindering the results.
However, the process has been strong. Here is his pitch usage with Miami, compared to when he was with the A’s.
Fastball: 48.7% (59.2% w/OAK)
Slider: 27.1% (21.5% w/OAK)
Changeup: 24.2% (19.3% w/OAK)
This season, Luzardo’s fastballs have been hit incredibly hard with a .442 wOBA allowed. He struggles to locate it, often leaving it over the heart of the plate; neither pitch offers much in the way of vertical movement, limiting their effectiveness further. His slider/curveball, on the other hand, has a 50.7% whiff rate, while the changeup, albeit a work in progress, still yields a 34.6% whiff rate. More offspeed pitches are a good thing.
With just a 40.4% fastball usage on Sunday, Luzardo was dominant against the Reds, throwing six shutout innings with eight strikeouts and just one walk. That’s the perfect flash of his potential when it all comes together. As long as the ability to miss bats is there, I’m always going to have one foot it in regarding his dynasty value. I’ve already made sure to pick him up in 12-team redraft leagues as a high-upside arm down the stretch in a great ballpark, and this is the lowest his stock will be in dynasty leagues. With regards to Alcantara and Luzardo, wherever they’re being ranked by consensus projections, be higher than that.
Former Top Prospects That Need To Hit For More Power
If you had a dynasty startup draft this offseason, the chancers are that you would have had to pay a premium for either Ke’Bryan Hayes or Gavin Lux. As former high-end prospects, they were expected to be key parts of the 2021 NL Rookie of the Year race. Instead, it’s been a rough season for both, causing dynasty managers to wonder: what does this do to their dynasty outlook? In the end, it all comes down to more power.
Hayes’ stock went through the roof this offseason after posting 195 wRC+ in 93 plate appearances in the MLB last year, yet that success hasn't carried over into this year. He current boasts just an 89 wRC+, showing limited power (.125 ISO) without a great batting average (.246). In redraft leagues, it’s likely you’ve moved on from this point, and you might be ready to do the same in dynasty formats.
With a 78th percentile max exit velocity and noticeable raw power, it’s strange to see Hayes struggle for power. Actually, not really. A 57.1% ground ball rate has suppressed his barrel rate to 5.2%, leading to the limited power production. The biggest issue? Pitchers have figured out his weakness.
It’s quite clear where Hayes’ ground balls are coming from:
When contact is made low in the zone, it’s almost a given it will result in a ground ball for Hayes. Thus, the fact that his average pitch height seen on fastballs continues to go down (2.36 ft in August) is a problem. Pitchers have adapted, but will he? That’s the million dollar question.
This is the highest Hayes’ ground ball rate has ever been, though this is likely also the first time this he’s been exploited like this. Yet, with just a 19.5% line drive rate, I’d eventually expect fewer ground balls; he’s due for positive regression with line drives. Furthermore, his more aggressive approach (69.2% zone swing rate in August) should lead to lower strikeouts, since he has such clear contact ability (8.9% swinging strike rate). For now, I’d be fine holding him in case a swing change happens here. That being said, you should continue to monitor if he’s able to make an adjustment in September.
Once upon a time, Gavin Lux was challenging Wander Franco as the top prospect in baseball. Now, he’s struggling to stay on the Dodgers’ MLB roster. In spite of an 80 wRC+, there are some positives here. His 70.6% zone swing rate and 23% chase rate is elite - he’s aggressive yet lays off pitches he shouldn’t swing at - and he has little issue making contact in the zone (85.5%).
The problem, though, is against breaking balls. He’s whiffing 36.5% of the time against them, likely playing a part in his ineffectiveness (26 wRC+) vs lefties. As such, there is a chance he’s trending towards only getting plate appearances vs righties, which is a problem. With just a 4.7% barrel rate and limited power outside of the juiced-ball 2019 minor-league season in Triple-A, there is also problem with regards he’s going to supply you with the home runs you’re looking for. It’s a lot of clutter here.
With Lux, there is a great chance you’re getting a platoon player with average-at-best power and a .250 batting average. This reads a lot like Carter Kieboom; a player with a solid on-base percentage due to the ability to draw walks, yet limited value for fantasy unless he starts stealing bases. I love the swing decisions he makes, though, at this point, I’d likely sell him in dynasty leagues. I wouldn’t completely give up on him, but while his former top prospect pedigree is still carrying his value, why not consider trading him this offseason?
Random Relievers Of The Week
Drum roll please! It’s time for the random relievers of the week! Well, sort of. This week, we’ll focus on one player who certainly is not a random name, but also one who might epitomize this weekly segment.
The chances are that you’re quite familiar with AJ Puk. A former top-10 pick whose been a premier prospect in the Athletics’ farm system, he was projected to be a frontline starter. However, what do “failed” starting pitchers become? Electric receivers! That’s exactly what’s happening with Puk.
In 11 innings out of relief this season, Puk is running a 28.3% strikeout rate and a 27.3% whiff rate, a testament to his overall stuff. In 40 innings in Triple-A, his 18.6% K-BB ratio was impressive, and I’m encouraging moving forward. For starters, Puk has a career 52% zone rate over the first 22.1 innings, which should void well for his ability to do better when it comes to limiting walks. Then, there’s his overall arsenal. The fastball isn’t great, but the slider? That’s a different story:
I do have concerns about the ineffectiveness of Puk’s fastball and sinker, which could get hit hard over time. Yet, the slider gives him a clear putaway pitch, and he’ll be asked to work multiple innings. In leagues where his SP/RP flexibility gives him an extra boost, he’ll still hold value despite not ending up as a starting pitcher.
Michael Rucker, on the other hand, gets us back on track with the purpose of this segment: highlighting diamonds in the rough. A former 11th round pick in 2016, he’s posted great K-BB numbers in the minors since becoming a full-time relievers, and is now popping at the MLB level. In 16.1 innings with the Cubs, he has a 9.72 ERA, but also a 4.00 FIP- I don’t anticipate him allowing a .413 batting average on balls in play and 46.1% left-on-base rate moving forward! Thus, let’s focus on the true positives. He has 21 strikeouts in those 16.1 innings, an absurd 15.3% swinging strike rate, as well as a 31.6% whiff rate. The walks are a problem, but one thing is for certain: he can miss bats.
Rucker’s fastball is poor, but he can continue to compensate that by throwing his other pitchers more. His cutter and curveball each have whiff rates over 37.5%, and will guide him moving forward.
Here’s the cutter:
Now, the curveball:
Hey, someone has to pitch high-leverage innings for the Cubs. With the ability to miss bats and induce ground balls, it will be interesting to see if he can make some tweaks to unlock his former potential. I’m all here for 11th-round picks shining at the MLB level.
Other Notes:
With a .496 wOBA this month, Bobby Dalbec has been electric for the Red Sox this season. The change? A 76.9% in-zone swing rate, way higher than his previous norms. This leads to less strikeouts/two-strike situations, which also allow him to be in a position to hit for power more often. Expect a deeper dive into this should he continue to hit for so much power.
Don’t focus on the 5.05 ERA Carlos Carrasco has. Rather, focus on his 23% strikeout rate combined with a 4% walk rate. His fastball velocity has been in line with previous seasons since coming back from injury, and although his spin rates are down, the peripheral results have been fine. He’s come into his own over his last two starts, and the end product should be an effective high 3.00 ERA type of pitcher.
I am going to continue to pound the table for Yadiel Hernandez. The 31-year-old’s trajectory of contact (just a 12.7% under, 28.4% flare/burner) combined with completely even sprays means he’s going to hit for average, while he’s shown the ability to hit for power at a reasonable clip as well. Add in some value on the bases as well, and he’s certainly worth targeting as someone to boost your offensive categories down the stretch and heading into next year