With the minor league season coming nearing its end, I made my way to Frisco for their final regular season series of the season. There’s a chance for playoffs still for Frisco, depending on how the final week goes. With no guarantees, it was imperative to get one last look at the lads before they head for vacation.
A note on the Padres system in general before we tackle the Missions side of this: This isn’t your brother’s San Diego farm system. That isn’t to say they don’t have talent, they do. What they lack compared to say three to five years ago is that depth element. CJ Abrams and Robert Hassell are going to be good big leaguers one day. Past that, the variance starts to look less elite. Our own Joe Doyle tweeted this out which is helpful to explain why:
This is the cycle: Teams that are bad get good players, then as the team improves either those players graduate to the big leagues or get traded for other big leaguers. San Diego’s MLB squad is in the middle of their window, and getting there meant making deals. We can talk about the results of those trades at a later date, but this is to say that the Padres system overall isn’t the dragon it once was.
Anyway, enough abstract babbling. Let’s talk players.
Three players off our top 30 featured in this week’s series. In inverse order, let’s talk about Eguy Rosario. He’s having a good year on the farm, and at only 22 he’s getting his second taste of Double-A (he played three games with San Antonio in 2018). He likes it plenty, putting up a nice stat line. What’s important to note here is Rosario is playing shortstop now, after Abram’s leg injury. Prior to that he was at 3B mixing in some DH. I’m not sure either left side of the infield positions are his future.
Rosario isn’t a bad defender, just nothing he does screams premium left side player. His instincts at short are just OK, but he still needs work reading balls off the bat. That deficiency leaves him in the lurch at times. The easiest way to describe it is to imagine a goalkeeper in soccer facing a penalty kick. Both Rosario and keepers misjudge which way the ball is going, which tends to result in not good times.
That said, there is plenty of time left for him to get better. I’d be curious to see how he handles second base, as his arm would be more suited and in a potential shift less future he might be less likely to make these sort of mistakes. That said, the defense is still a work in progress and something to monitor upon Abram’s return sometime next year.
The bat on the other hand is the carrying tool here, and for good reason. Rosario has a career high in homers, doubles, and walks this year without any of the telltale signs of a super free swinger. A roughly 2:1 strikeout ratio confirms that, as does the eye test. Rosario makes good contact, generating power from his lower half well. He handles fastballs well, but still could use some work on breaking pitches. I’m skeptical of the power long term, but if he ends up as a 10 homer type in the big leagues that’s more than fine given that he’ll get on base a good amount.
Rosario is a player that with time could climb up top prospect lists, but his defensive work and lack of projection on power will be limiting factors. If he can find a position to be average or slightly above at long term, that solves a lot of problems. His current trajectory is that of an average major leaguer, whose value increases if the game’s shift to more contact oriented hitting is real.
Moving up six spots is outfielder Esteury Ruiz. A second baseman in his former life, Ruiz has spent his entire 2021 roaming the outfield for San Antonio across all three positions. I saw him primarily as a center fielder, and overall no complaints. With elite speed Ruiz is able to get to most balls with ease, though with his outfield experience still in development his judgement is improving. His skillset fits the outfield more, now he just needs seasoning.
At the plate Ruiz is still a work in progress. His speed means that every ball in play is going to be a challenge, forcing opposing defenders to be almost perfect in their execution. Getting the ball in play with regularity will be the challenge for Ruiz. The bat is not as refined as one would like; Ruiz needs to make more contact and more hard contact. That might mean swinging a bit less, allowing him to pick out more prime pitches. Ruiz hammered a curveball over the wall the first night of the series, showing that he can do these things. It’s about establishing a more consistent ability to do so, while constructing a plan built around his specific skills.
If Ruiz had Rosario’s plate profile, he’d be a monster. He doesn’t though, but what he does have is quality in the field and viable potential with the bat. If the Padres can continue his development, or find a team that can via trade, Ruiz can be an every day center fielder in the big leagues. There’s work to be done to get him there, but it’s not hard to see the path there.
Mackenzie Gore made a start Saturday that I wasn’t on hand for. From Lone Star Ball’s Michael Tepid, who had this dispatch:
Gore is a fascinating player who has been up and down, all around, and still has a lot of walking to do on his baseball journey. There’s even questions about whether his future will be with the Padres, after rumors about him swirled around the trade deadline. It appears for now that Gore is on his way back from the depths, but still has one of the more volatile profiles in baseball. If you’re looking for more Gore, this video from Fangraphs of him in the complex league might be worth your time:
Moving to the home side, let’s talk about Cole Ragans. A double Tommy John patient, Ragans pitching at all feels a small miracle. Ranking 24th on our Rangers top 30 list, Ragans has his highest innings total since 2017, and it showed in his start. Ragans was 88-91 with the fastball, hitting 92 once. The changeup was 80-83, and the curve wasn’t featured much but it was the one mentioned above that Ruiz hit for a homer.
It’s pretty clear that Ragans is gassed, and is battling through his starts now on gumption. Which is admirable, it shows the willingness to go out and do the thing even in suboptimal conditions. Losing a couple ticks off the fastball which in turns changes how everything else plays just creates a challenge. The good news is the mechanics are still butter smooth, and despite the reduced arsenal efficiency Ragans wasn’t afraid on the mound. His ceiling has lowered due to the injuries and time lost, but there’s still a major league pitcher in there. It’s just closer to a bottom of the rotation floor with a mid ceiling, as opposed to a mid floor and a top ceiling. That’s OK!
Doubling our way up the list at 12 is lefty Cody Bradford. This is a name we’re not talking about enough, despite his name getting a lot more buzz as of late. A lanky lefty, Bradford doesn’t overpower hitters with a giant fastball (88-92 when I saw him) but it’s all about what the ball does. The vertical approach angle (VAA) on the pitch is close to elite, and it shows when Bradford locates it up. San Antonio hitters struggled all night when it was up, swinging and missing often.
Bradford also features a changeup, slider, and the occasional curve. It’d be curious to see the curveball more, as it would be a nice contrast to the fastball in theory. Overall though Bradford is living off the fastball, which works because it’s good. If that pitch is working, everything else works fine. If not, he’s probably going to have a rough time. That said, buy your Bradford stock now. The former sixth round pick is showing out well, getting strikeouts and weak contact at the Double A level. He turns 24 before next Spring Training, and there’s a chance Texas could call upon him sooner rather than later based on their starting pitching woes.
Speaking of fast rising pitchers, let’s talk Chase Lee. Texas drafted the former Alabama Crimson Tide closer in the sixth round this season, and he’s already in Double A getting hitters out. He’s a fastball (90-92) and slider (80-83) pitcher, but he’s a sidearmer with great deception. Hitters are guessing what’s coming out of the hand, because it’s almost impossible to tell until it happens. That results in what is already a plus slider exploding on righties, and befuddling lefties.
Lee pitches like McDonald’s: He knows what he does well, then does that over and over. Closing game two of the series, Lee threw all sliders to get the strikeout looking. He knew it would work, so why deviate? Lee is a new take on the current reliever archetype, and he’s going to get big leaguers out. There’s even a chance he’ll start 2022 in the big league bullpen. He’s a unique player, and one that you shouldn’t sleep on.
Justin Foscue is having a two-sided season. After tearing High A up for a good portion of the season, the #4 prospect moved to Frisco. Since then he’s been scuffling, as he adjusts to the higher level of competition. You can see flashes of his success at times; Foscue opened the series with a three-walk night showing off good patience and pitch recognition. Other times though, it’s clear he’s still behind in that regard. He’s not making enough contact in Frisco, and that contact isn’t resulting in enough power like it did at Hickory.
On defense, there’s not a lot to write home about. Foscue plays second base well enough, but it’s not outstanding. He’s going to be a bat first infielder, that’s just the reality of the situation. That’s not a bad thing either, he’ll be serviceable to the point where you hopefully don’t notice him in any way. That the routine plays are routine, and the others work out favorably enough.
That all said, there’s no real reason to sound the alarm yet. Foscue as a 2020 draftee had his development stunted by Covid, and won’t turn 23 until next March. Plenty of players enter a level without success the first time, adjust and then have success upon return. Especially in a Covid world, development isn’t linear. If this time next year Foscue still isn’t hitting enough, it’s time to be concerned. Not right now, there’s still plenty to like as he adjusts to better competition.
Moving two spots down to #6, Josh Smith is having an interesting time right now. He’s getting on base with regularity, doesn’t give away at bats, and while he’s never going to hit for power that’s not a concern. Smith is going to be that pesky on base machine at the next level. He’s not particularly fast, so it’s all going to be making good contact while avoiding bad pitches. It’s going to be unsexy in the modern game, but when it comes to getting on base he’ll be one of the best on just about any given team.
Where the questions emerge is on defense. Smith is playing shortstop right now, and that’s probably not the optimal position. There’s nothing about his performance at that position which screams above average defender. Could he be a second baseman long term? That’s definitely an idea. Is it possible that he improves at shortstop enough to be average? Yes, I think so. Age is working against him, but there’s reason to believe.
Also it’s worth noting that Smith right this moment is a case where real life must be weighing on him. Smith is from Baton Rouge, went to LSU, and his family is from the area ravaged by Hurricane Ida. I can’t imagine trying to play high level baseball while thinking about all the things that come with that. It’s a chance to remind everyone that baseball is only part of what these folks do. Obviously when we evaluate, we look at on field performance. Sometimes that’s not the whole story, as is the case here.
Speaking of uncertain infield futures, #9 prospect Davis Wendzel is an interesting case with similarities to Smith. He’s on the older side also at 24, was brought into the organization on his advanced bat profile, and doesn’t really have a position at the moment. He played third base this series, but has been all over the diamond in his pro career. That’s probably his future if he makes it to the big leagues: a super utility type who can come off the bench and play multiple spots in the infield and even the outfield. The bat at this moment isn’t good enough to justify a starting spot, but definitely could work as a backup. It’s not any one thing either; he’s just average all around. That can keep you in a job for awhile especially if his on base proficiency improves.
One of the more polarizing players in the Texas system, #22 prospect Sam Huff knows exactly what he’s working on right now. The power is prolific, but it’s all about making more contact. As of late, he’s seen some better results by driving the ball. Progress is progress, but there’s still a lot of ways to go.
One curious thing you can see in the video below of his batting practice. Huff doesn’t finish his swing every time. You can see the follow through in the first couple swings, then see when he stops at the high point post contact. It’s strange, but something to keep an eye on. That’s not going to be the thing that makes or breaks him. That will be his ability to get the bat into the zone faster and not swing so much at pitches out of it.
The defense is a question mark also. Huff has been at 1B and DH this season as he recovers from a knee surgery earlier in the year(peep the knee brace in the video). When asked in a recent interview, Rangers President of Baseball Operations Jon Daniels seemed optimistic that Huff would return behind the plate. Plans change though, and to be blunt the first base position in Texas is wide open these days with the struggles of Nathaniel Lowe. It seems a safer bet that Huff can become a better hitter faster than he can a catcher, which might break the tie. His story is one of the most interesting this offseason.
One to watch is Blaine Crim, the Independent. Crim is 24, a 19th round pick, and arguably doesn’t have a position right now. What can he do though? Hit. He sprays the ball, makes good contact, and is good for probably 15 homers at the big league level. If Huff goes back to catcher, Crim should be on everyone’s radar to take the first base job long term. He can handle the position, but it’s more about finding a place for his bat in the lineup every day. He didn’t make our top 30 list because of that defensive issue, but he’s one that with more time and more fielding work could rise up a potential preseason list wherever he is.