The third and final installment of the Topps Flagship product arrives today on Friday, October 28th. While we’ve seen some of the headlining rookies appear in secondary and tertiary products or as short prints in Series 2 Flagship/Chrome Flagship, this is where we are getting their most widespread and accessible release.
2018 Topps Update Series was one of the more desirable Flagship releases in the last five years and it’s quite possible that 2022 Topps Update Series will be looked back upon in the same vein. The rookie headliners as well as the depth of the rookie class in the product are that good.
Design
The design is what we’ve already seen plenty of times with Series 1, Series 2, Chrome, 3D, Opening Day, etc. Not a perfect design, but certainly a good one with a full white border and nothing overly risky or in your face. I’m starting to tire of seeing the 1987 Topps throwback insert and autos even though it holds huge nostalgic value for me.
A major component of Update Series is usually the All Star Game and we will be seeing plenty of that with base cards from the All-Star game along with relics and autos. Always fun to see pics of the players in their All-Star gear, but it doesn’t tend to add much value.
Finally, we are getting the popular Home Field Advantage insert with an active player set and a rarer Legends set. The active player set should encompass the ten teams yet to get an HFA card in either Series 1 or Series 2. Topps doesn’t release a checklist for the HFA cards (I have no idea why not, but I guess they view them similar to short prints). At the time of this article being written, we have seen a majority of the common ones pulled including the big names hoped for - Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., Spencer Torkelson, and Seiya Suzuki. That’s a nice set of chase cards included in the product and adding value.
Configuration
Just like Series 1 and 2, you will find two hobby configurations, regular Hobby and Hobby Jumbo. At the time of writing this, regular hobby boxes are in the $120 range while hobby jumbos are in the $230 range pre-sale. Last year Topps sold 2021 Update Series Hobby boxes for $79.99 direct from their website and I expect to see the same this year (***Update - Topps did indeed price Hobby boxes for $79.99 on release day). A regular Hobby will guarantee you one auto OR relic plus a silver pack (mojo chrome 35th anniversary cards), while the Hobby Jumbos will guarantee you one auto and two relics plus two silver packs. There will also be all of the standard retail formats with blaster boxes, jumbo packs, loose retail packs, etc. Will see if Topps decides to throw anything new at this release - Series 1 got a surprise 1st Edition while Series 2 got a Vending box configuration at least a month after the release date.
Additional Notes
A couple of more items to mention before we get to the Main Attraction:
I am including Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Spencer Torkelson in this product preview as this is where their standard Flagship base rookie cards are to be found - I did not include them in Series 2 Flagship as they were short prints (and late announcements as short prints at that).
The secondary hunt in this product are the Rookie Debut cards. They are less desirable than the True Rookie Cards (TRC) but can still be a worthwhile runner up. In rare circumstances, they can be very desirable cards, as is the case with the 2019 Fernando Tatis Jr. Rookie Debut card. Since the True Rookie Card of Tatis is horizontal and the Rookie Debut card is the more desirable/hobby friendly vertical orientation, his Rookie Debut card has plenty of supporters.
Rookie Combo cards are a thing as well in this product (along with vet combos). It’s safe to say that if you aren’t in consideration for a solo base rookie card and instead get put into a rookie combo card, my hobby ranking for that player is going to be a Tier None. And given the hobby’s general disdain for base combo cards, I am going to simply ignore those for the purpose of this write-up.
All teams listed in the Main Attraction are the team that is assigned to the player in the checklist and not necessarily the team they are currently on. I have put an asterisk next to the team name if they are not currently in that org.
Pujols in a Cardinals uniform *celebration emoji* - we give Topps heck for their mistakes and they could’ve simply excluded him from the checklist, so we should also give them praise for when they make good decisions - good job Topps.
Main Attraction
The Main Attraction in Flagship releases is the base rookie cards and all of their associated parallels. Collectors typically consider these cards to be a rookie’s True Rookie Card (TRC) and they hold a comparatively significant demand over most other rookie cards. Before we jump into the breakdown of the rookie checklist, a quick refresher on how I roughly think of my Tiers.
Tier One - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won't end up as designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier Two - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players, may be great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite. High-end SP2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier Three - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long-term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, defense first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
Tier 1
Julio Rodriguez - Mariners - What can I say, this may be one of the easiest Tier 1 decisions I’ve had to make since starting to do these in-depth product previews. After a tepid first month of the season, he has taken the baseball world by storm. Only injuries have slowed him down up to this point. The superlatives are endless with him putting together a 28/25 regular season and dreams of potentially having the rare 40/40 season in his future.
Outside of the nagging injuries, there are very few negatives to dwell on. He could get his strikeout rate down and walk rate up (26% K rate and 7% BB rate), but I anticipate that will regress towards his more favorable minor league numbers as he matures. Digging a bit further into the strikeouts, there is a higher than average whiff and chase rate which is easily attributable to his first year facing MLB pitching.
At some point Julio may be forced off of center field, which in the hobby is basically a whatever. However, part of that reasoning is that there has always been the speculation that he could slow down as he ages, and that would potentially impact his stolen base totals. However, if he’s still hitting .280 - .300 with 30 - 40 home runs and is the face of the Mariners franchise as well as one of the stars of MLB, slowing down on the stolen bases likely won’t have a huge negative impact.
A current and future face of the MLB with a smile and personality to match, J-Rod is a no doubt Tier 1 player.
Bobby Witt Jr. - Royals - If it wasn’t for the monster season and force of personality of Julio Rodriguez, Bobby Witt Jr. would be the talk of baseball’s rookie class. His numbers haven’t been at the level of J-Rod, but they’ve been outstanding for a rookie with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases. Unlike Julio, the speed likely will be there for Witt throughout his career and we should be anticipating 30/30 seasons on the regular.
On the negative side, Witt has always been aggressive at the plate which can lead to lower walk rates. In the minors he was typically just below average in the 7% - 9% range, but it has fallen to the sub-5% range in his rookie season. This has led to a sub-.300 OBP as well. Fortunately, he is able to balance that out with a 21% K rate, a tick below the MLB average. He should be able to regress that back to his Minor League numbers and get to the MLB average of 8%-ish and then I really won’t have much to complain about.
He has the legacy factor with his father being a long-time big leaguer. He has the draft pedigree as the second overall pick in 2019 behind Adley Rutschman. And he can play the most important position on the diamond in the shortstop position or shift over to the hot corner as needed. Just like Julio, Witt will be the face of his team for the next decade and will be a regular part of the marketing material for the MLB. Not quite at the tippy top of the Tier 1 hobby rankings as Julio is, still, Witt is another no doubt Tier 1 player.
Spencer Torkelson - Tigers - While Julio and Witt have excelled in their rookie season, the road has been anything but smooth for Spencer Torkelson. In addition, Tork’s profile is much different than those two as he is the prototypical power-hitting first baseman along the lines of Pete Alonso. Granted, Alonso is the ideal outcome. However, Tork’s first 400 MLB plate appearances have not exactly matched the Polar Bear (that’s an understatement). Diving into the stats for Tork and quite a lot of the numbers look to be in the league average range but the results have been far from it. Talking with a knowledgeable Tigers fan about what they have seen, the most obvious challenge has been quality of contact. He’s not missing the ball altogether, he’s just not squaring it up when he does make contact leading to the subpar results we’ve seen so far.
I still view Torkelson as a Tier 1 player for a multitude of reasons. First, you have the draft pedigree (1st overall pick in 2020) and prospect pedigree (consensus top 10 prospect prior to the season). Then you have the underlying skills - a patient approach leading to a high OBP potential coupled with plus raw power. His chase rate, average EV, and max EV are all in the top 25% of the MLB. A .260/.360/.500 hitter with 40 home runs is enough to get him up into my Tier 1, but at the moment he is a step below the other two players in this tier. And I wouldn’t fault you if his rookie season performance drives you to view him as a Tier 2 player as I have my doubts as well.
Tier 2
Jeremy Peña - Astros - When Peña burst onto the MLB scene in 2022 as Carlos Correa’s replacement in Houston, I had more than one hobby collector asking me the common buy/sell question in regard to his 1st Bowman cards. I don’t mind those questions at all, but I’m now leaning towards being on the wrong side back then (the sell side). So why could the buy side be right? That’s because even though the stats tell one story, the intangibles tell another one. He has that clutch thing going on, and seems to have impactful hits on a regular basis. We’ve already seen this lead to him taking home the ALCS MVP honors as well as hitting a series clinching home run in the 18th inning against the Mariners in the ALDS to complete the sweep.
From the overall stats perspective, his counting stats are almost all above league average/top 100 hitter marks (22 home runs, 72 runs, 66 RBIs, 11 stolen bases). However, the majority of his rate stats are below average/sub-top 100 hitter marks (.253/.289/.426 triple slash, 24.2% K rate, 3.9% K rate, 25.5% hard contact rate). That walk rate really screams out as a problem, and like a lot of young hitters, he struggles most against changeups to the tune of a .193 batting average and .246 slug against. Some other reasons behind his rate struggles come from same-handed pitching (right-handed) splits and a rough two months in July and August.
At the end of the day, I can’t say it better than my buddy Shwebsi (Christopher Weber) from Pitcher List - elite defense (finished as the top shortstop in total runs saved according to the Fielding Bible and 6th overall in dWAR for all position players) and a league average bat will get you far. Any growth in the bat will make him a star. Given the at bats I’ve watched in the postseason, that growth is already happening. And that’s why I have him in Tier 2 - that knack for the moment and a future possibility at stardom.
George Kirby - Mariners - This is the floor for Kirby. The Mariners 1st round pick in the 2019 draft pairs with their 2018 1st round pick in Logan Gilbert to provide a fantastic foundation for many years to come for the Mariners.
Has a five pitch repertoire headlined by a mid-90s four seam fastball. He can pound the zone with it or elevate it and get way above average swing and miss outside the zone with it. The swinging strike rate on the pitch (16%) ranked third overall among major league four seam fastballs (eyes emoji). The rest of his arsenal is spread between a tight slider, 12-6 curveball, mid-90’s sinker, and an arm-side fading changeup. Of those, the sinker showed the best results in 2022 with the other secondaries being less effective.
Overall Kirby put together 130 innings (plus just over 30 innings of minor league time) of a 3.39 ERA and an even better 2.99 FIP in 2022 at the MLB level. Not too shabby for his first go around at the MLB level, especially considering he had never pitched above Double-A prior to 2022. There is SP1/ace-level ceiling here with future growth and experience and I am all in on the Kirby bandwagon.
Seiya Suzuki - Cubs - If you’re just looking at the statline for Suzuki in his 2022 rookie season, you would rightfully be questioning why he is in Tier 2, and perhaps even questioning a Tier 3 ranking to be fair. He provided just a bit over league average production with a .262/.336/.433 triple slash, 14 home runs, and 9 stolen bases in 111 games. Part of the reason behind the underwhelming production was due to a finger injury from sliding into second base towards the end of May that was slow to heal and capped his counting stats with the missed games. Another reason is that it is very rare for a foreign player, especially on the hitter side, to come over to the MLB and have more than above average success in their first year in the U.S. So far the only two that come to mind are elite players - Ichiro and Shohei Ohtani.
So got it - first season adjusting to a new league, and heck, a completely new country/environment along with a slow healing finger injury - surely overcoming that isn’t enough to bump him all the way up to Tier 2? That is correct - it’s his track record of NPB success coupled with some strong underlying metrics that has me still bullish on Suzuki moving forward, not to mention that added dose of international appeal and a highly collectable team.
First his NPB stats, where by the time he hit his peak in 2021, he had a triple slash of .317/.433/.636 and 38 home runs at the age of 26. Then take a look at metrics like hard hit rate, barrels, chase rate, whiff rate, average exit velocity, and max exit velocity. All of those numbers are at least better than league average if not much better. His chase rate, one of the main indicators of a good or bad plate approach, is in the top 10% of all the MLB. Will he ever reach his peak NPB numbers? It’s unlikely, but I still think we could see significant regression towards them given the underlying strength of his stats in his first exposure to MLB pitching. I’m buying Suzuki as a future .280 - .300 hitter with 25 - 30 home runs, especially in a hitter friendly home park.
CJ Abrams - Padres* - The Padres don’t hesitate to push their most talented prospects up to the big leagues regardless of age/service time considerations or trade them en masse. Abrams actually got to experience both in 2022 with a debut at the tender young age of 21 and then being part of a massive trade deadline deal that netted the Padres Juan Soto while sending CJ and a host of other high end prospect talent to the Nationals.
His MLB debut season spread across two teams did not go well. Across roughly 300 plate appearances, he had essentially a league average batting at .246 with a very subpar OBP at .280 while hitting two home runs and stealing seven bags. The biggest problem staring me in the face was that Abrams took just five walks in 302 plate appearances. Although he has never been a strong walk rate guy, a sub-two percent walk rate is not going to cut it at the MLB level.
Putting the disappointing debut numbers aside, Abrams has a profile of a hit-over-power guy with the real asset being his elite speed. He regularly will turn infield ground balls into hits given that speed. On the defensive side, his athleticism tends to make up for his subpar arm. In the long run, he likely gets moved over to second base or the outfield full time.
From a hobby perspective, he’s often been a hobby darling since being the sixth overall pick in the 2019 draft. The missing ingredient has always been the power, and any time he hit more than one home run in a week span in the minors, his cards would shoot up in value. With his 6’2” frame and athleticism, there is hope for future in game power. The concern is the plate approach limiting his opportunities for getting his sweet spot pitches, and at the moment his swing is more of a flat path than geared towards putting the ball over the fence. If Abrams adds in above average to plus power, then we are potentially looking at a Tier 1 player. I am very skeptical we see that, but the dreamers are hoping for prime Eric Davis while I see more of a Jacoby Ellsbury type minus his one outlier season. It’s comfortable a Tier 2 profile with plenty of risk due to the unknowns given his youth and seeing which way his development heads.
MJ Melendez - Royals - Part of a core group of Royals prospect bats that had their debuts in 2022 with Witt, Nick Pratto, Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Drew Waters, and others. Melendez is the catcher of the future in this group and his debut had some positives and some uncharacteristic negatives. He profiles as a power-hitting catcher featuring a patient plate approach lending itself to getting to that power, and the defensive ability to stick at catcher on the strength of his arm.
The positives for MJ this year included a strong walk rate at 12.4%, 25th overall in all of MLB. Exit velocities, hard hit rate, barrels, and chase rates were all well above league average. On the negative side, his strikeout rate and whiff rate were in the bottom third of the league, driven a lot by his struggles against MLB-level breaking balls and off-speed pitches. His pitch-framing numbers, for whatever that’s worth, were worse in the league. He had a rough triple slash highlighted by a batting average of .217, reminding us of his abysmal 2019 minor league season spent in High A where he hit .163. However, he made a lot of modifications after that season that led to him crushing two levels of minor league ball in 2021 that included 41 home runs and eye popping numbers everywhere else. Will the real MJ Melendez please stand up?
If he can even out some of that excessive pull-side approach to handle the breaking and off-speed weaknesses while still maintaining a potential 30+ home run outcome, there is a Tier 2 player here. Even with the catcher penalty, Melendez should get enough time from out behind the dish or even in the DH role that his counting stats wont be too adversely affected. Prospect pedigree with a recent power hitting track record that should find plenty of success with a young core of talented hitters all around him has me comfortable putting him into my Tier 2 even with his less than stellar debut season.
MacKenzie Gore - Padres* - Gore was part of the blockbuster trade to the Nationals in which the Padres acquired Juan Soto. He was actually on the injured list due to elbow inflammation at the time of the trade and only put in some Triple-A rehab starts in September in the new uniform.
He has a four pitch mix highlighted by a plus four seam fastball that sits mid-90s. His secondaries are all potentially above average pitches. The curveball seems like the best of the bunch with getting above average outside the zone swings and limiting hard contact. The changeup is effective when paired with the fastball, but it doesn’t have much movement and mostly lives off of the velocity difference to be effective. The slider is his other secondary and can get some swing and miss when located effectively, but in general big league hitters have feasted on the pitch.
Whatever happened over the Pandemic years, whether it was mental or mechanical or both, along with some inconsistent debut season results, should lead to a Tier 3 ranking. At this point, he’s a risk/reward guy who could be an SP2 or even an Ace at his best. At the moment, he’s a mid-rotation starter with stuff but not results that I will stick in Tier 2 given upside, prospect pedigree, and opportunity. A high risk ranking to say the least.
Hunter Greene - Reds - The Reds 1st round pick at 2nd overall in the 2017 MLB draft, Greene was a talented two way player with a cannon for an arm. With a fastball that was in the triple digits, the Reds focused him on the pitching side for his MLB career. Had Tommy John surgery in 2019 that slowed his ascent to the Majors. A slight surprise with him making the opening day roster, but he did spend a majority of the 2021 season in Triple-A. Add in the fact that both Luis Castillo and Mike Minor started the year on the injured list and it’s easier to see why Greene got the green light.
While he has three pitches, he’s mostly using a two pitch mix at this point in his career. The split is pretty close to even between his upper-90’s four seam fastball (54%) and low-90’s gyro slider (41%). He’ll throw a change of pace low-90’s changeup about 5% of the time. That usage is dictated by the fact that the results with the pitch are really not good. The elite velocity is really the deciding factor in the effectiveness of his fastball/slider approach as the movement is mostly subpar outside of the horizontal movement of the fastball.
His 2022 overall statline doesn’t look great, cherry picking his last six starts make him look like a serious arrow trending up starting pitcher. That was 35.1 innings with 51 strikeouts to 8 walks and a 1.02 ERA. If he can be anywhere close to that effective moving forward, he’s an easy Tier 2 pitcher. If he lives more in the overall 2022 statline area, there will be constant pressure to move him to the bullpen which would be a hit to his hobby ranking and interest. On a side note, he has a great signature, which doesn’t hurt. Back to back high risk rankings with Gore and now Greene so buyer beware.
Royce Lewis - Twins - The 2017 MLB Draft first overall pick is arguably a Tier 2 talent if not more, but injuries have been a huge obstacle in seeing it on the field. An easy comp just from the injury prone situation, team context, and draft pedigree is Buxton. All of the off-the-field makeup type stuff is what you are looking for - great personality, natural leader, etc.
On the field, he’s an athletic player that can probably field any position with the primary still being shortstop although he’s played some outfield and third base. Unfortunately, an appearance in centerfield and a subsequent collision with the wall led to his second ACL tear and surgery in as many years. It really was unfortunate as he crushed Triple-A in a little over a month to start the season before getting the call up and hitting two bombs in his first dozen games.
At his best, Lewis could be a 20/20 guy hitting .300 and a team leader. At his worst, he could never get it going consistently due to injuries and be one of those guys we talk about the “what if” scenario. I still like the potential enough along with the draft pedigree and intangibles to slot him into the bottom of my Tier 2, but this is definitely a high risk proposition.
Tier 3
Alek Thomas - Diamondbacks - Given his prospect pedigree as a consensus top 100 prospect and top 2-3 Diamondbacks prospect, there is some consideration that this could merit a Tier 2 ranking on its own. However, there are a few reasons I’ve slid him into the top of my Tier 3 rather than pushing him into the bottom of my Tier 2 like Royce Lewis who has a somewhat similar offensive profile.
First is that his first 400-ish plate appearances at the MLB level did not go well, and consistently trended downward from debut to being sent back down to the minors towards the end of the season. Unlike Tork, who I put into Tier 1 even with a rough 400-ish initial MLB plate appearances, someone lower down the rankings has less margin for error with their performance and our willingness to give the benefit of the doubt.
Second is his offensive profile - there’s an above average hit tool, average power, and above average speed even if it’s not resulting in a lot of stolen bases. Nothing stands out, and even if you want to give him credit for a better hit tool than I have because of his really low K rates and typically above average walk rates (with the exception of the MLB sample), his really high ground ball rate bursts that balloon.
Third is his team context - the Diamondbacks are one of the lower tier teams for collecting purposes, and he has a teammate in Corbin Carroll with more hype and overall talent that will relegate Thomas to second fiddle at best.
His floor should still keep him as an average MLB regular with a ceiling of a .280 20/20 hitter, but one that is likely restricted to left field given Carroll’s MLB arrival blocking center field. He struggled against left-handers as well in his MLB debut, but that hopefully regresses back to the positive like his minor league numbers. He’s young at just 22 years of age, so I am definitely not ruling out a Tier 2 type player where he achieves or even exceeds the ceiling I see. To be honest, if I had written this prior to his debut, I would likely have put him in Tier 2, but given his lackluster start to his MLB career, I am going to penalize him and move him to the top of Tier 3.
Nick Lodolo - Reds - Famously left off of a well-known prospect writer’s pre-season Top 100 (he was 55th overall in the Prospects Live Pre-season Top 100), the tall, lanky lefty had a three-game debut in April before coming back up in July to stay. He finished the year strong with a 2.75 ERA in his last nine starts including back-to-back 11 strikeout games in mid September.
Depending on where you look, Lodolo has anywhere from 3 to 5 pitches, but he mainly relies upon a mid-90’s sinker and a low-80’s curveball. His third pitch is a high-80’s changeup which he throws about 10% of the time to lesser success than his two primaries.
On the plus side, he has shown the ability to get strikeouts, limit hard contact, and get ground balls, all essentials if you’re pitching in Great American Smallpark. On the negative side, Lodolo had a higher walk rate (8.8%) than we’ve come to expect with his track record and plus command profile even if the high strikeout rate makes up for this negative to a degree. In addition, he’s not on a strongly collected team, pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly MLB parks, and even with his draft pedigree of a former first rounder and top 10 overall pick, there isn’t a ton of name recognition that comes with it.
Essentially a solid SP3 or low end SP2 profile at his peak, he doesn’t have the hobby ceiling like his rookie teammate Hunter Greene. Someone I did consider for Tier 2 given how the arrow is trending up for him, but given the above mentioned negatives, I want to see a lot more success at the MLB level before I would be comfortable pushing him up to Tier 2.
Steven Kwan - Guardians - Kwan possesses an elite plate approach and the ability to put the bat to the ball with the ability to regularly steal double digit bases. And that’s about it. His barrel and hard hit rates are in the 1st percentile (that’s 1st in the context of bad, not good) and his average EV is in the 3rd percentile. It’s safe to say he’s not a power hitter even if he did put up 12 home runs across two levels in his final minor league season of 2021. He managed to get 6 home runs in his rookie season, and I think that is probably his median seasonal output moving forward with perhaps some spikes up to the 10-12 range.
His ceiling outcome is Tony Gwynn, and that is a very high-end Tier 2 profile in the hobby. A .300 hitter with speed but little else just doesn’t bring the Tier 1 prices in the long run. Some may think that Kwan will have more speed than Gwynn, but it’s easy to forget that Gwynn regularly put up double digit steal seasons including a peak of 56 in his age 27 season. If Kwan can put together a 20-year career with 19 straight years of hitting over .300, then he deserves a Tier 2 ranking. Until we get a lot farther down the road with Kwan, I am going to stick him at the top of Tier 3.
Jose Miranda - Twins - At one point known more for being a cousin to Lin-Manuel Miranda, Jose has made a name for himself as a pop-up prospect in 2021 and now an everyday regular after debuting at the beginning of May for the Twins. He’s a bat first corner infielder that split time between first and third but long term he projects as a 1B/DH profile as his body matures. In 2021, he was hitting almost .350 across two levels as he showed significant improvement in plate skills. It can be argued it was BABIP driven although that may have been more of a skill with the patient approach he displayed. His MLB BABIP was closer to league average, although still above it, and his average showed a similar dip finishing up at .268. He’s shown very strong, sub-20% strikeout rates throughout his career even if that comes with subpar walk rates.
Ultimately Miranda looks like a future .280 hitter that will hit around 20 - 25 home runs with zero contribution in the speed department. If he provided more defensive value and a bit more pop, he would be in consideration for Tier 2. As it stands, we’re looking at a good everyday player at a low value position that doesn’t move the needle enough for the hobby outside of hot streaks or some other extenuating circumstances which aren’t currently present (personality, team context, etc.).
Brendan Donovan - Cardinals - One of the more quietly surprising rookies in 2022, he’s just another player in a long line that personifies the “Cardinals Devil Magic” theme. The reality is that Donovan is what he is, and the Cardinals tailor their offensive approach to best use players like Donovan. He’s a hit to all fields, line drive bat with a plus plate approach leading to fantastic walk and k rates that ended up in as a top 10 number in all of MLB for OBP (.394) in his rookie season. On the defensive side, he is a jack of all trades and master of none. He literally played every position outside of catcher and pitcher in his debut season. That could be viewed as either a plus or a negative - regardless, it’s a quintessential utility man profile at a minimum.
The main negatives are the lack of power and speed on the offensive side of the spectrum. If he adds some pop, it likely negatively impacts the plate approach and “peskiness” that he presents to opposing pitchers, so it feels like it would be difficult for me to consider Donovan as someone I could see moving into Tier 2 at some point in the future. On the other hand, I also think he’s now cemented his everyday MLB player role and it would take some negative changes or injuries to really knock him down into Tier None.
Ultimately I had him as a Tier 3 player in my 2022 Bowman Baseball Preview and even though he’s been a surprise in 2022, I still see him as a solid Tier 3 player all around.
Ryan Pepiot - Dodgers - When Julio Rodriguez says your the toughest pitcher he faced in the minor leagues, that automatically gets you on the radar. While he did get some run with the big league squad this year, there are so many arms in the upper levels of the Dodgers system that opportunity is a challenge when it comes to Pepiot.
He has four pitches even though it seems to have been whittled down to a three pitch focus, at least at the MLB level this year. A high spin four seamer in the mid-90’s that generates a ton of swing and miss (31.8% CSW) and weak contact (20.1% HC). He mainly prefers to pair that with a plus mid-80’s changeup that leads to a ton of weak contact as well. Finally he throw a similar velocity, high spin slider in the mid-80’s about 15% of the time that gets a good amount of called strikes. The pitch I didn’t see was a curveball, and that has been an average pitch at best in his past, so not surprised it didn’t make an appearance.
If Pepiot makes the rotation rather than shuffled to the bullpen, he’s easily a back end starter with mid-rotation potential. It’s hard to know with the Dodgers and their optimization approach on whether that will actually happen or not. That is the main concern I would have with ranking Pepiot in Tier 3. But like I said up top, he has the J-Rod seal of approval, so I am sticking with a Tier 3 ranking.
Bryson Stott - Phillies - Another one of those glue guys that you want in your lineup because he does most everything well, but doesn’t do anything special. He can play anywhere on the diamond with most of his time spent at shortstop, but he probably should be more of a second or third baseman long term. On the offensive side, the positives are a patient approach with a low whiff rate and above average power when he gets it grooved to him. At the moment all of that power is focused to the pull side as all 10 of his home runs have gone over the wall in right or right-center field. He also has enough speed to get up to double digit steals.
Unfortunately, his rookie season hasn’t quite lived up to a league average level, but that is likely his long term floor. The hope is that he looks more like a .260 hitter with above average OBP, 20-ish home runs, and 15-ish steals with full playing time. A good player with some 1st round prospect pedigree, but no tool that currently stands out, and that is a classic Tier 3 profile.
Jhoan Duran - Twins - Until 2022 Duran was considered a potential future starter for the Twins. He opened 2022 out of the pen for the big league squad and oh man, did he pitch. He became one of the more effective high leverage arms in all of baseball with an elite “splinker”, a cross between a splitter and sinker that touched 100+. He was a favorite of Pitching Ninja which helped get his name in the general baseball consciousness.
Take a look at any place where you can get color-coded advanced metrics and it is almost all bright red (very very good). There’s very little to complain about - maybe he gives up slightly more hard contact than you would expect, but if every other metric wasn’t so good, this wouldn’t stand out at all and in fact would look pretty good. From a hobby perspective, the real needle movement left is having that dominant closer role racking up the saves. If and when Duran moves into a role like that and succeeds as he’s done in 2022 in his current high leverage role, he gets consideration for Tier 2. Until then, he’ll be a comfortable Tier 3 ranking.
Jack Suwinski - Pirates - My thoughts and evaluation of Suwinski have not really changed since I first dove into his profile earlier this year for my 2022 Bowman Baseball Preview. A really hot month of June where he put up eight home runs significantly drove sales of his 2022 1st Bowman cards. By the All-Star break in July, his performance had come back to Earth and he was sent back down to Triple A before being called up at the end of August to finish the season on the big league squad.
Suwinski is a strong side platoon big power, high strikeout, high walk rate guy that can play all three outfield spots. That power potential to hit 30 - 40 home runs (depending on MLB machinations with the ball itself) is what gives him the bump into Tier 3. When he’s on a heater, take some profit because I don’t have any expectations that he can find sustained success unless he figures out how to hit lefties. This feels very similar to a Joc Pederson type player.
Heliot Ramos - Giants - Not so many years ago, Ramos was regularly considered the top or second best prospect in an admittedly weak Giants’ system. A first round pick of the Giants in 2017, Ramos has always been more athlete than baseball player and gives me the impression that he could easily transition to an NFL running back with some extra reps in the weight room. While he can play all three outfield positions and primarily patrols center field, as he ages and his body thickens up, he’s most likely going to end up in either corner since he has the arm to be able to play right field.
He got a few sporadic call ups in his debut season for a total of nine unimpressive games at the MLB level. The rest of the year was spent in Triple-A and was likewise unimpressive to the tune of a .227/.305/.349 triple slash. About the only positive takeaway I can see is that he was able to get his strikeout rate under 25% for the first time in his pro career.
At this point Ramos is trending toward a platoon bat/fourth outfielder. If he can regain some of what made him that intriguing power/speed with a league-average hit tool prospect profile, then he justifies a Tier 3 ranking. That said, if the downward trend continues he really should be in Tier None and I would caution anyone from investing in his cards as he easily could end up as mentioned in that platoon or fourth outfielder role.
Chase Silseth - Angels - 2021 11th round draft pick of the Angels surprisingly found his way into the Angels rotation for a couple of short stints in 2022. Prior to the season, I had him pegged more as a backend starter or relief arm. I still think relief risk is there, but given the results, I was too low on him. This is one example (of likely many) where after further information and results, I am moving a player up a tier. In this case, going from a Tier None player in my 2022 Bowman Baseball Product Preview to a Tier 3 player in this review.
Silseth relied on a four-pitch mix with a mid-90s fastball as his primary followed by a splitter, slider, and curveball. The fastball and the slider were effective at getting strikes, but were punished when the bat got to the ball. The splitter didn’t produce much in the way of strikes, but suppressed a lot of hard contact and got a lot of ground ball outs. The curveball was a distant fourth pitch in effectiveness.
There’s plenty of work to be done here and the Angels aren’t traditionally an org that delivers in that regard. With Silseth, the Tier 3 ranking is believing that regardless of the org, he can take the next step and be that reliable SP3 that the Angels so desperately need.
Kyle Bradish - Orioles - Part of the Orioles return for the trade of Dylan Bundy to the Angels during the off-season prior to 2020, Bradish is already a back end starter with a tantalizing five pitch arsenal that has the potential to lead to more. It includes a mid-90’s four seamer with decent spin, a plus slider that is his best pitch, a 12-6 curveball, and a mid-90’s cutter/sinker that he uses only sparingly.
He had shoulder inflammation in mid-summer that put him on the IL. He returned at the end of July to finish the season strong to the tune of a 3.28 ERA over 13 games, and that includes two blow up games. On the other hand, it also includes two games of absolute ownage over the 2022 American League champions (and perhaps World Series champs - TBD) Houston Astros. Each game Bradish gave up only two hits, one over 8 innings and the other over 8.2 innings. One of the keys to that success was increased slider usage that led to it being his primary pitch and decreased fastball usage as a result.
Being in a now forward-thinking organization, I anticipate that they drove that evolution of Bradish’s pitch usage as the key to unlocking his mid-rotation upside. That gives me the confidence to put him in my Tier 3 rather than Tier None where most backend starters get slotted.
Elehuris Montero - Rockies - May be more well known as being the headliner for the package the Rockies got in return for their one-time franchise cornerstone Nolan Arenado. Broke out in 2018 but injury slowed him down shortly thereafter. Picked it back up in 2021 and 2022 leading to his MLB debut this season.
Has been an aggressive hitter in the past, but seems to have worked at improving that on a yearly basis to the point where he’ll probably settle in around league average in both strikeout and walk rates with a .270-.280 batting average. He’s mostly a pull-side approach doubles hitter that will likely fall into 20+ home runs in Colorado. On the defensive side, it’s less promising as he is limited to the infield corners and more just a 1B/DH type.
It’s a tired trope, but a promising bat in Coors is almost always some in the hobby look to chase. Send him to hitter-unfriendly confines for a home park along with a DH-only role and he may be more of a Tier None player than someone I stick in the middle of Tier 3 like I am doing here.
Bryce Elder - Braves - He had a lights out complete game shutout in his second to last game of the season that will probably have a few people chasing the next in a seemingly long line of young Braves arms. Has a four-pitch arsenal that starts with a sinker and slider combo. He’s added a cutter at a similar low 90s velocity to the sinker to keep hitters from sitting on the sinker. His fourth pitch is a changeup that generated above average swing and miss. All four of his pitches have something going for it that makes you think he could be more than just a fifth starter focused on getting ground ball outs.
A backend SP floor with a mid-rotation SP upside given that he can get ground balls as well as the strikeouts. Further development to cut his walk rates would really help push him toward that ceiling. Add in the young Braves pitching dust that seems to be going around and there could be some hobby interest which is why I am slotting him into the bottom half of Tier 3.
Nick Allen - Athletics - Smaller stature at 5’8” and 170 pounds, the 24 year old still looks like he’s not old enough to vote, let alone buy alcohol. The standout tool here is elite defense at shortstop that will likely keep Allen with a full time job for likely a decade regardless of any of his other tools. He has a strong plate approach as he regularly posts sub 20% K rates even if he has subpar walk rates. His power falls in line with his small stature in that there is little of it. He’ll kick in a few chip-in steals as well, perhaps getting up to double digits if he can get on base enough.
The offensive profile is definitely Tier None. However, given how much of a standout tool his defense is, he gets the bump into Tier 3.
Gabriel Arias - Guardians - Power over hit shortstop acquired from the Padres in one of their fifteen yearly trades. Seriously though, it was the Mike Clevinger trade during the 2020 deadline and the Guardians got a really nice haul along with Arias, picking up Joey Cantillo, Owen Miller, Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, and Austin Hedges for Clevenger, Greg Allen, and Matt Waldron. My opinion really hasn’t changed as Arias has basically been what we thought he was since I first took a look during my 2021 Bowman Baseball Product Preview.
An aggressive hitter that struggles to get consistently good contact leading to high strikeout rates and a low batting average. That aggression and power will find a way to 20 home runs and that, coupled with flashy and competent defense at short, should drive enough interest even if he hits .240-ish. That’s going to be just enough to keep him in Tier 3, where I had him in my 2021 evaluation, but I think the downside is more likely than the upside given his offensive approach.
Joey Wentz - Tigers - Former touted Braves prep lefty taken 40th overall in the 2016 draft that was traded to the Tigers for Shane Greene back in 2019. Since then he’s dealt with arm issues including Tommy John surgery during the lost 2020 season. He’s finally started to show some of that prospect promise with five strong outings at the MLB level to finish the Tigers’ regular season. Now he’s down at the AFL, which notoriously favors hitters, and he is practically un-hittable there as he works to build back arm strength and consistency.
His arsenal was three pitches deep, but he’s added a fourth that has become a weapon for him. He leads with a low 90’s four-seam fastball with good horizontal and vertical movement. It doesn’t turn into many whiffs or strikeouts, but it does get pretty good results in limiting damage. The changeup used to be considered his strikeout pitch, but it seems like he doesn’t yet have the feel back for it. In all ways, it looks to be an underperforming pitch. A 1-7 curveball, similar to the fastball, doesn’t get much going on the strikeout side, but doesn’t get hit very well. The new weapon is a cutter he is throwing in the 84 mph range at just over 20% usage. It’s ringing up double plus swinging strike and CSW rates while also limiting hard contact and any form of hitter success.
There’s a backend SP floor with a mid-rotation SP ceiling. Given his injury history, it’s easy to just bet on the floor rather than the ceiling. In Detroit, he should get plenty of rope to see if he can reach his ceiling. Add in the prospect pedigree and I am going to lean into the arrow up trend with him getting into the bottom of Tier 3.
Félix Bautista - Orioles - Pretty much a classic reliever profile with two lights out pitches in a high-90’s four seamer and high-80’s splitter. He’ll throw in a mid-80’s slider just over ten percent of the time which gets a fair amount of called strikes simply because hitters aren’t geared up for it. In 65 games in his debut season, he finished 30 of them and picked up 15 saves for a surprisingly competitive young Orioles team. Bautista has below average walk rates but balances that out with gaudy strikeout rates and proved his high leverage worthiness in his rookie season earning an uncomfortable Tier 3 ranking, but that’s likely his ceiling.
Tier None
J.J. Matijevic - Astros - Lefty power bat that is defensively limited to 1B/LF/DH. Has plus on base skill set but still strikes out too much to make it as an everyday impact bat. His 32-game MLB sample was not great with a 2% walk rate and 35% strikeout rate along with going opposite field a lot more than he did in the minors, which isn’t great for a power hitter. I am going to chalk that up to a small sample size and pitchers staying out of the lefty power hitter happy zone of down and in. With some plate approach tweaks to ditch the high swing and miss and some defensive improvements, he could move up from that strong-side platoon 1B/LF/DH role into an everyday role. I would then bump him up to Tier 3 simply on the power tool getting him to 30 home runs on volume and a strong Astros lineup. Until then, he’ll hang out around the top of Tier None with the looming specter of a Quad-A masher tag.
Beau Brieske - Tigers - The 2019 27th rounder out of Colorado State University - Pueblo made a quick ascent to the MLB ranks after only 34 minor league games from 2019, 2021, and the beginning of 2022. He went on to pitch 15 games at the MLB level at essentially replacement-level results, which is a compliment for a player selected that far down in the draft. Unfortunately, forearm soreness around the all-star break led to an IL stint and after a couple of Triple-A rehab starts, the Tigers decided to shut him down for the year. That is being framed as a conservative, future thinking move for a non-competitive 2022 Tigers team and hopefully that is the case rather than actual lingering health issues.
Has a five-pitch arsenal headlined by a mid-90’s plus spin four seam fastball that has top 40 vertical movement and spin. He pairs it with a changeup that produces plus weak contact to the tune of a sub-20% hard contact rate. He’ll throw a low mid-80’s slider that was not effective and a show-me curveball which probably should be thrown even less than it already is. Finally, he added a really impressive mid-90’s sinker that I did not see on his reports prior to 2022. Part of it may be that hitters weren’t prepped for it and weren’t successful against it, and part of it may be that it was just a really effective pitch when paired with his arsenal.
Brieske was an unknown for me coming into 2022 and now looks to have cemented at the least a backend starting pitching role with some mid-rotation upside, even if the overall statline isn’t special. The lingering health concerns and needing to see if he can find an effective third pitch, perhaps by throwing that sinker instead of the slider, is what keeps me from pushing him into Tier 3 as an upside mid-rotation guy.
René Pinto - Rays - Backup, power over hit, catcher that should be able to stick behind the dish even if he’s not the complete package back there. Depending on the MLB depth, he could easily be a second division regular type behind the dish. He’ll hit eye-popping home runs and features plus 90th percentile exit velocities. Unfortunately that comes with below average chase rates. If his approach improves to the point where he’s a no doubt starter popping 25+ home runs along the lines of what fellow rookie Cal Raleigh did this year, then he’s easily a Tier 3 player. Until then, he’s a Tier None player worth keeping an eye on.
Cooper Hummel - Diamondbacks - 2021 trade deadline acquisition from the Brewers for Eduardo Escobar. Had some helium, or should I say Hummelium, in the lead up to the 2022 season. No? Think I am going to have to workshop that one. That interest was definitely driven by two catcher fantasy leagues searching for sneaky profiles. Hummel’s strength is his hit tool and plus on base skillset. Add in some chip-in steals plus positional versatility of outfield and catching and you get fantasy managers dreaming of getting Hummel as one of their “sleepers”. Unfortunately, there is little else to get excited about as he lacks in the power department. Sub-optimal launch angle, below average hard contact and average exit velocities are going to likely continue to suppress any potential for power unfortunately.
A nice player to have on your baseball team. A good option to snag in deep two-catcher league fantasy drafts, even if he doesn’t immediately qualify at the position in 2023 (depending on eligibility rules). A ho-hum Tier None profile when it comes to the hobby.
Rylan Bannon - Orioles - To be honest, I had lost track of Bannon. I knew that he was part of the package of prospects the Dodgers sent to the Orioles for Manny Machado back in 2018 (seriously, why do teams trade with the Dodgers unless the player you're getting back is named either Yordan Alvarez or Oneil Cruz). And then I saw that after his brief May debut and a return to Triple A, the Orioles DFA’d him at the beginning of August which ended up in a full circle journey back to the Dodgers. That’s where I thought he ended the season, but, surprising to perhaps only me, I guess the Dodgers then DFA’d him and the Braves picked him up. He even got into a game in late September with the Braves as a double switch defensive replacement.
And that is essentially what Bannon looks to be - a bench infielder that will live on the fringes of rosters or get some run on second division teams not looking to complete (hello Oakland!). He has a little bit of pop, is a good defender at second and third base, and has plus walk rates due to his patient plate approach. That patience can get him into trouble though as he regularly gets put into negative hitter counts leading to elevated strikeout rates as he faces more advanced pitching. He’s firmly in Tier None territory.
Bryan Lavastida - Guardians - If I was writing this blurb at this time last year, Lavastida would have been more than likely someone I would’ve put in Tier 3. He had a very strong 2021, and the other main prospect catcher in the org, Bo Naylor, had a dismal one. Fast forward one year and they have basically done the opposite of 2021. Lavastida made the opening day roster as the backup catcher given the injury to the veteran backup Luke Maile, but once Maile was healthy, Lavastida was sent down to Triple-A and never back up to the MLB squad. And then when he went on the IL for a strained hamstring in mid-season, Naylor took his spot in Triple-A and Lavastida got sent down to Double-A upon his return showing the nature of the reversals of fortune.
He’s a collection of average to above average tools across the board, with nothing really jumping off the page. A former infielder until he got into the pros, Lavastida has quickly developed into a player that should have no problem sticking behind the dish with the floor of a backup catcher and potentially a split starting role with some additional positional at bats depending on team roster and health. If he can show growth in the power or get back to his BABIPpy (that’s a word, surely) success from 2021, he can get into Tier 3 collectability. Until then, Bo Naylor is the catcher to chase in Cleveland and Lavastida will sit in Tier None.
Joe Perez - Astros - Part of the Astros taxi squad to start the season, Perez got the call-up to the active roster when Yuli Gurriel went on paternity leave on April 8th. Perez got one at-bat, a strikeout, before being optioned to Double-A 10 days later. He spent most of the year after that in Double-A with some rehab games due to an oblique injury at the Complex and finished up the year with a cup of coffee at Triple-A. Similar to last year, he finished the year up relatively strong just to try and get everyone bought back in. Well, I’m not falling for it JOE! Wait, am I talking to myself?
Anyways, Perez is a third baseman by trade but has the arm and is capable enough to play all four corners. The problem is that he just isn’t showing enough in game power to occupy any of those positions with an everyday role. There’s definite juice in the frame with plus 90th percentile EVs, but he is hitting the ball into the ground too much. Another player that with some tweaks could climb into Tier 3 as that everyday player that can take a walk, hit .260, and pop 20-ish plus home runs while racking up counting stats on a strong Astros team. Until we see that in action, he’s a Tier None player that is more of a bench bat/weak-side platoon.
José Azocar - Padres - Fourth outfielder type that provides defensive and speed (96th percentile sprint speed per statcast) more than anything else. He chases quite a bit even if his strikeout rates don’t reflect that. Has an average hit tool and subpar power. Will hit the ball up the middle and opposite field quite a bit and use his legs to get on base. He’ll run higher than normal BABIP’s because of that approach and speed. Have a bit of caution with his Triple-A stat lines as the Padres affiliate in El Paso is one of the most favorable minor league parks to hit in. This profile is standard Tier None and really nothing to get excited about.
JP Sears - Yankees* - Pitchability lefty that was part of Oakland’s return for Frankie Montas at the trade deadline. Plus command and a three-pitch mix. Four seam fastball typically sits in the low 90’s with a plus VAA. Curveball/Slider (depending on where you look) that he likes to back foot to right-handers and freeze left-handers with. Third pitch is a changeup that he locates well to get called strikes and drive weak contact, but doesn’t get a ton of swing and miss. And that is somewhat the story with Sears and why he gets the pitchability tag. There just isn’t much swing and miss anywhere and he should be looking to rely on weak contact, but lives in the league average range there. He’ll get plenty of opportunities to start in Oakland where he wouldn’t have in the Bronx, but he likely would’ve been more collectible if he had stayed in a Yankees uniform. Backend SP Tier None ranking that needs a lot more strikeouts in the profile to jump up to Tier 3.
Tommy Romero - Rays - Romero was somewhat of a buzzy name in the off-season given his strong 2021 season across Double-A and Triple-A. Most of that work was done starting games, and there was an obvious need for starting pitching in Tampa in 2022, but Tampa shifted to using him in a multitude of roles from starter, opener, middle, and late innings relief in 2022. By August, Tampa had decided to move on and the Nationals scooped him up off of waivers. Romero has slimmed down his arsenal to a low 90’s four seamer, a mid-80’s slider, and a low-80’s split-change type thing. The vertical movement on the four seamer helps overcome the lack of velocity with it ranking 5th overall yMov in all of MLB amongst four seamers. However it didn’t help much on the results side against MLB hitters. The splitter was the most effective of the three pitches with a 32% CSW, but like the fastball and slider, it just did not deliver the results.
With the Nationals really needing help everywhere, I expect them to give Romero a few more shots at starting before pulling the plug and cementing his bullpen role. Given his past results as a starter, it’s worth keeping an eye on how well Romero does to see if there is actually a mid-rotation starter here, pushing him into Tier 3 consideration. For now, he’ll get watch-listed in Tier None.
Josh Winder - Twins - Solid backend SP that doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts is a Tier None profile and Winder is currently in that bucket. He has a chance to get into Tier 3 if he can find that extra gear with his four seamer. When he was throwing it 95+, he was actually looking dominant (check his first two May starts). When it was averaging under 94, he looked more like a sixth starter. In addition to the four seamer, he’ll throw a gyro slider almost as much as the fastball (40% fastball, 33% slider). His final two pitches are a changeup and a curveball. The slider and the changeup are both above average to plus and generate whiffs, while the curveball is turning into a distant fourth option.
Watchlist Winder and focus on his fastball velocity - if he consistently gets to 95 and up, then he goes to Tier 3 and could find some interest that likely isn’t there at the moment. If he doesn’t, he stays in Tier None as a sixth starter/bulk innings reliever type.
Luke Williams - Marlins - Debuted last summer for the Phillies, DFA’d and then traded shortly thereafter to the Giants in Spring Training for Will Toffey, and then shipped to Miami for Hayden Cantrelle in late May. Three teams in less than three years is usually not a good thing. His value comes with his speed and positional versatility. Everything else in his profile is well below league average. In the short term, he’ll likely play a second division utility man or emergency depth role. In the long term, not sure if he carves out a significant role anywhere in the MLB level ranks. Nothing to get excited about (unless you have a family member named Luke Williams) that lands him in the thick of Tier None.
Símon Muzziotti - Phillies - Not much has changed from my 2022 Bowman Baseball Preview where Muzziotti had his 1st Bowman card. Outside of getting a nine-game debut sample in early April and confirming what we already knew about him and another relatively small sample in Triple A that ended prematurely with a torn right patellar tendon. Has a good plate approach with plus zone contact skills and decent speed (which hopefully is still present post-injury) with very little power to speak of that will make his bones as a fifth outfielder type.
Lucius Fox - Nationals - I remember being really excited when Fox was the highlight of the Giants’ 2015 international signing class. A switch-hitting, speedy, slick fielding shortstop. I was also pretty disappointed when he was traded to the Rays in a package for Matt Moore. Eventually he went to Kansas City straight up for Brett Phillips and then was cut loose after the 2021 season and found his way onto the Nationals roster after a brief stint on the off-season roster of the Orioles. After making the opening day roster and around a month playing in D.C., Fox was sent down to toil in Triple-A for the remainder of the season. Not being able to stick on a second-division roster for a full season, or heck, even more than a month, isn’t a great sign.
Essentially Fox hasn’t been able to hit enough and struck out way too much in the 2022 Triple-A season for someone with the profile that lacks any power to speak of. He’s essentially drifted into that bench player that can provide some defensive replacement and pinch runner value. That’s a far cry from what we (or perhaps, just me?) were hoping he would develop into.
Nick Plummer - Mets - First off, Plummer got into collecting his own baseball cards, specifically his 1st Bowmans, once the hobby took off a few years back. For that alone, he should be a Tier 1 player in the heart of the hobby. Unfortunately, the thinking part of the hobby, when it takes a deep look, will see that Plummer is trending towards org depth and that his surprising 2021 minor league season may have been more of a mirage than reality. 2022 was a return to the pre-Pandemic Plummer in regard to worrying strikeout rates, but unlike past years, he was unable to balance that out with his normal plus walk rates. It all culminated in a DFA scenario in mid-August to get him off the 40-man and when he went unclaimed, being outrighted to Triple A. When no major league team claims cheap outfield talent for reclamation and flipping activities like the A’s normally do, it’s a sign of the league’s opinion. And mine as well as I go with my head instead of my heart and rank Plummer in my Tier None.
Richie Palacios - Guardians - After surprisingly crushing Double and Triple A in 2021 returning from two lost seasons (shoulder surgery and then the Pandemic-lost season), Palacios got his first taste of the big leagues in 2022. While it didn’t go quite as hoped, you could see the makings of a speedy, hit over power fourth outfielder with a strong plate approach. He almost always is sitting at sub 20% K rates and double digit walk rates which is something that Cleveland in general excels at as a team.
Given that foundation, I am guessing he gets a pretty long leash in Cleveland over the next few years. However, he’s pretty much left/center because his arm and defense aren’t really playable anywhere else. I do like how it looks like he is giving 110% every time he swings the bat and reportedly has a great mental makeup. Unfortunately that doesn’t look like it will translate into anything more than 10-ish home runs and with his future role and no standout tools, it doesn’t seem like a player I or the hobby will have any interest in.
Joe Dunand - Marlins* - If you didn’t catch any of the 15 minutes of hype Dunand got, then you probably missed every single announcer taking every single opportunity to let their audience know that Dunand is Alex Rodriguez’s nephew. Now you get to hear that from every breaker opening Update Series. Yay? Homering in his first MLB at bat and A-Rod’s reaction of that homer going up on social media and replayed across various popular baseball social media and tv stations didn’t hurt either. Given that name recognition, there may be some people looking to collect him on the strength of that alone.
He profiles as a strikeout machine with some minor pop that will mostly play the infield corners with some second base potential. He’s mostly moved off of shortstop where he spent most of his college career. With how poorly his plate approach is, it’s hard to see him having much of a long-term MLB future. The Marlins moved on from him at the end of May and the Braves picked him up as more of an org depth move given the Ozzie Albies injury. However, he never made it back up to the MLB level in 2022. If, and it’s a big if, he can significantly cut the strikeout rate, then he might reach the ceiling of a utility player/bench bat.
Diego Castillo - Pirates - One half of the return for reliever Clay Holmes, the Yankees, at least for the moment, look to have taken the “W” for this trade given Holmes’ 2022 performance. Castillo is trending toward a strong side platoon utility player that can play anywhere on the diamond. Prior to the 2022 season, he had shown really low K rates while increasing his walk rates to respectable levels year after year. His 2022 season showed serious backsliding there and after a decent start to the season, he swooned heading into the summer eventually leading to a demotion.
I hate seeing when a young player is not only struggling against breaking and off-speed stuff but also against fastballs. There may be some optimism if Castillo can regress towards the positive plate discipline, but he’ll need to figure out how to hit MLB right handers to find a full time role and have any hobby relevancy.
William Woods - Braves - At one point Woods was still in that gray area of whether he was a starter or a reliever, but the Braves now look to be fully committing him to a bullpen role. Injuries limiting development time in 2021 and 2022 (ankle) have probably played a part in shifting him that way, as has having only two reliable pitches. With that short stint focus, his zone rates have become more reliable, which helps give him MLB relevance. His two primary pitches are a mid-90’s four seamer and a mid-80’s slider that can generate plenty of whiffs. At some point he could find his way to a high leverage role and then maybe, just maybe there is something to be interested in. In all likelihood, he’s just another reliever that the hobby won’t have interest in.
Andre Pallante - Cardinals - 2019 fourth rounder that likely vacillates between a backend starter role and a multi-inning bullpen role depending on team needs and Pallante’s consistency, or lack thereof. And that’s exactly how his 2022 went, starting the season in the bullpen, moving into a starting role for most of June and July, and then ending up back in the bullpen post-trade deadline.
None of his four pitchers were particularly effective. A four-seam fastball is his primary and sits in the mid-90’s. His secondaries are a gyro slider, tight curveball, and a sinker. None of it really misses bats - the curveball is probably the best pitch in that regard. Where Pallante is effective is in getting ground balls. He posted an almost 66% ground ball rate which is around 20% better than league average. While a good pitcher to have on your staff from a baseball perspective, there isn’t anything here that is hobby relevant which leads to a Tier None ranking.
Alex Faedo - Tigers - Former first round pick of the Tigers in 2017 out of the University of Florida. Has evolved into a backend starter that had Tommy John surgery in 2021 and made his MLB debut in 2022. Featured three pitches in his return to the mound with a low-90’s four seamer, slider, and changeup. The slider was his most effective pitch in 2022. Unless the fastball or changeup or a curveball he threw prior to TJ take a step forward, he may end up heading to the bullpen, and that may be sooner rather than later.
Adrián Martinez - Athletics - One half of the trade return for Sean Manaea from the Padres, Martinez profiles as a back end starter or reliever. He debuted as a double-header 27th man in May before bouncing back and forth between Oakland and Las Vegas (A’s triple affiliate and potential future home) before finishing out the season in Oakland for the last month of the season.
He’s got three pitches, a sinker (although we had him with both a four-seamer and a two-seamer prior to the season), a changeup, and a slider. The changeup is the calling card with elite vertical movement (1st overall ranking for changeups in all of the MLB in 2022). As you can imagine with that type of movement, he gets plus whiff rates that come along with it. The problem is his sinker, which sits in the low to mid-90’s with a 50% usage and an opponent batting average of .338 and a .602 slug. That’s not great, Bob. If he can figure out how to limit the damage when it comes to the slider, he can cement a long term rotation role, even if it’s still more of a backend profile. I’ll consider moving him out of Tier None if I see that growth and keep him in the lowest tier while we wait.
Ron Marinaccio - Yankees - Middle reliever with strikeout stuff had a very strong debut season for the AL East champs. Three-pitch mix with four seamer, changeup, and slider with the changeup being potentially double plus. It generated over a 21% swinging strike rate with almost a 37% CSW. There are two main concerns that likely prevent Marinaccio, at least in the short term, from getting into the highest of leverage roles. Those are a less than ideal ground ball rate - not great when pitching against and in AL East parks, and a bottom-tier walk rate at over 13%. I was not a fan of Félix Bautista’s walk rates earlier, and that was at 9.1%. I am REALLY not a fan of Marinaccio’s walk rates. So while I like the arsenal, the approach and command has to find a better balance with that arsenal for me to consider him outside of Tier None (even if he does probably get a small Yankees bump).
Cole Sands - Twins - A backend starter at best, Sands is now trending towards more of a follower/swingman type role. He’s a zone pounder with his fastball/curveball/changeup mix. The fastball typically sits in the low-90’s and needs to play around the edges of the zone to be effective. The curveball has nice sweeping action with plus spin but again can be taken advantage of if located in the heart of the zone. The changeup is subpar and only gets around a ten percent usage as a show me pitch.
His 2022 debut bouncing back and forth from Triple A to the majors was not great with just over 30 MLB innings. It resulted in average walk rates and sub-20% strikeout rate, a pretty far cry from what he was able to do against lesser minor league competition. An easy Tier None choice until we see better ability to get MLB hitters out.
Jason Krizan - Giants - I think this is the oldest rookie in the product at 33 years old. A 2011 8th round draft pick of the Tigers, Krizan persevered through 10 seasons in the minors and in his 11th season finally got a taste of the big leagues for 3 games. Spends most of his time at first base, second base, or the outfield. Showcases a good plate approach with high walk rates and low strikeout rates with a bit of added power the past two years since he got in the Giants org that he had not shown previously. A good story, but he’s essentially an org depth type player at this point which pegs him squarely to Tier None.
Gosuke Katoh - Blue Jays* - Org depth/fifth outfielder type with speed, good walk rates, and some contact skills. He got eight games in April with the Blue Jays and then got DFA’d with the Mets claiming him and sticking him Triple A for the rest of the year. Interestingly, he was chosen in the third round of the Japanese Baseball League (NPB) in the third round by the Nippon-Ham Fighters (Ohtani’s NPB team) last week. He said he was honored but still under contract with the Mets and would be “speaking with those around him” if internet translation of his Japanese language tweet is to be believed. For what it’s worth, while it’s safe to assume he has Japanese heritage, he was born and raised in California. And that’s about the most interesting thing I can say about him, which means he’s a Tier None player.
Ethan Roberts - Cubs - A high leverage reliever that made the Cubs opening day roster but was shelved at the end of April after a few rough outings due to shoulder inflammation. After a brief rehab appearance, he exited with injury and went under the knife for Tommy John surgery. Leads with a mid-90’s cutter and follows that up with a ridiculous horizontal slider in the low to mid-80’s. He’s known as a spin rate god and in his brief MLB sample his cutter was 15th overall in spin rate while his third pitch, a curve, was 20th overall. While his slider was only above average in regard to spin rate, it was 1st overall in horizontal movement. All in all, super strong stuff that could one day lead to a closer role, but we won’t even see him until 2024 more than likely which relegates him to Tier None.
Anderson Severino - White Sox - Gas throwing lefty reliever with control issues on the smaller side at 5’10”. Had been in the Yankees org since 2014 before being released and signed by the White Sox in 2021, never having made it past High A. The White Sox quickly pushed him up the levels including six April relief appearances for the MLB squad while spending the rest of the season in Triple A.
Can get his fastball up the high 90’s and is his main weapon. He’ll throw a collection of secondaries with a changeup, curveball, and slider all in the mix, but his lack of command in general hampers his effective usage of those pitches. If consistent command and confidence in a secondary show up, he suddenly becomes a usable high leverage bullpen piece. Still, it will be a tough hill to climb for him to achieve any hobby relevancy.
Jake Walsh - Cardinals - Two pitch reliever that has battled arm injuries. Mid to Upper 90’s four seamer with good spin and a mid-80’s 12-6 curveball. Had plus CSW and Zone whiff scores in AAA in 2022 where he spent most of the season outside of a few games with the MLB club. That mix equals a good deal of strikeouts. High leverage relief is definitely the most likely future role, but he’ll need to find a long term closer role to sniff any hobby relevance and his past health issues make that seem like a low percentage outcome.
Konnor Pilkington - Guardians - The classic pitchability lefty backend starter profile. Low 90’s four seamer that plays up with his deceptive delivery and gets surprisingly more than its fair share of swing and misses. His main secondary he relied on was a whiff inducing change up that played really well with his fastball as both feature that above average horizontal movement. A curveball and a slider complete the arsenal, although these pitches were used in the sub-10% range in his MLB stints.
When he’s on, he looks like an innings eater that frustrates hitters around the edges of the zone. When he’s not keeping the heater out of the middle of the zone, he looks more like a spot starter/org depth guy. Don’t see anything here that would drive any hobby interest which keeps him firmly in Tier None.
Francisco Morales - Phillies - After vacillating between a starter and reliever role in his minor league time, the Phillies have fully committed Morales to a bullpen role in 2022. This was the correct decision as his biggest challenge was giving up too many free passes along with not having a reliable third pitch. His primary weapons are a tailing mid-90’s four seamer and a tight, vertical slider. When he’s on, his arsenal results in strikeout stuff while suppressing hard contact.
When he isn’t on, it gets ugly fast, and unfortunately, we saw way too many crooked numbers in the BB column in 2022 whether it was in the minors or his brief stints in Philly. When he has command of his pitches, you can easily see a high leverage, late inning reliever that could rack up the saves, but until he hits his potential ceiling of a lock down closer, and that’s a low percentage outcome, it’s an easy Tier None decision.
Alex De Goti - Astros - His debut happened in mid-April OF 2021! What are we even doing here MLB and MLBPA (and perhaps Topps/Panini)? Alex De Goti? More like Alex For Goti (because they forgot to include him in 2021 products as a rookie). Alrighty, enough complaining and bad jokes. De Goti spent the entirety of 2021 in Triple-A, his FOURTH full season, and fifth season overall if you include the cup of coffee he had at the level back in 2017. Repeating a level is often seen as a negative - repeating it four times…is there something worse than negative? He has pretty much always been off of prospect radars since he was drafted in the 15th round of the 2016 MLB draft by the Astros. Primarily a shortstop but will play in various other positions. His best shot is as a future utility player with good walk rates and average pop, but he’s not on the 40 man roster and likely is an emergency depth player at this point. More than likely he’ll get another shot or two and then head to a foreign league of some sort if he chooses to continue chasing the dream. Very much a Tier None player.
Final Thoughts
Prior to the season starting, I was thinking that Series 1 would end up being the product everyone would want short and long term due to the Wander hype. And then we get Julio Rodriguez and Bobby Witt Jr. not only holding their own, but excelling to the point where the winds have shifted away from Wander being the apple of the hobby’s eye to J-Rod being that guy. And Witt Jr. has plenty of that hobby attention as well. With the depth of the checklist giving plenty of opportunity for speculation in so many different player profiles, at this point, Update Series seems like the product collectors are going to want most of the 2022 Flagship releases both in the short term and the long term.