As part of our offseason draft coverage, we wanted to go further in depth on draft prospects that you might not be highly aware of, even if you are a draft hound. Brady Smith has emerged into a high draft follow for area scouts covering eastern Tennessee this spring. The right handed pitcher from Bean Station, TN put up gaudy strikeout totals during the 2022 showcase circuit, and has some of the highest breaking ball spin rates in the 2023 draft class.
Smith possesses a medium frame, albeit one that is quite lean at present and has room in the legs and upper body to add some good weight. The arm here is very quick and arrives on time, but there’s inconsistency with its path that sometimes causes him to get too wide and pull his pitches. There is some evident effort at present, with a bit of a head whack and some falloff to the first base side, but Smith keeps his eyes on target through release. As an athlete, he gets down-mound and moves very well throughout his delivery, which does inspire confidence for an ability to make adjustments and add velocity as he develops.
The ability to spin breaking balls and carry a fastball is a separating trait for pitchers, and Smith may have that. Sitting in the low 90s, he gets average to above average carry on his four seam fastball, and uses his strong extension to create a low vertical release giving the heater a shallow vertical approach angle. Pitching off the fastball, Smith has two distinct breaking balls; a high 70s curveball in the 2700-3000 RPM range with plus vertical break that, from this chair, flashes double plus, and a 2600-2700 RPM gyro slider that has above average depth. He has also flashed good arm side run on his changeup and while it can get firm at times, the feel for the pitch is evident and it provides a useful fourth pitch to handle left handed hitters. Smith is a competitor and appears resolute in his belief that his next pitch will be the best one he has thrown all day. That trust and conviction in his stuff has helped limit damage in quite a few outings over the summer.
As it pertains to areas of improvement, strike throwing and overall pitch execution stand out as places where Smith could get better. Operating with a fair bit of effort to get to his low 90s velocity, he is more control than command with his fastball which, while lively, doesn’t get whiffs when he’s missing over the middle. With the curveball and slider, there are issues with arm path consistency that will sometimes result in his arm path flattening out, generating more sweep than expected and producing non competitive waste pitches to his glove-side. Scouts will be looking for Smith to add good weight onto a frame that supports it, which in turn should allow him to tamp down that effort and be more consistent with his release point on breaking balls. In terms of comparison, there are similarities in frame and stuff to Braves’ 1st round pick Owen Murphy--though it’s important to note that Murphy’s physicality and fastball were more advanced at this stage of development than Smith.
Brady Smith projects right now as a Day 2 target, an inflection point for a lot of prep prospects where progression can move them into seven figure territory. That said, spring stagnation can push them to school. There’s a lot to like in regards to Smith’s athletic ability and stuff, and the frame isn’t prohibitive to adding good weight heading into the Spring. Despite racking up an obscene 93-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 53 innings of Perfect Game tournaments, Smith’s outings at PG National, East Coast Pro, and Jupiter have been more uneven. There’s still some things for the Virginia Tech commit to prove this spring, but there’s reason to be optimistic that he can tackle his challenges and take that next step forward with his command, strength, and mechanical consistency. If he does, expect there to be plenty of heat in Bean Station in April and May, and I’m not talking about the weather.