The 2022 season is off to a rapid start as this past weekend already concluded the fourth weekend of games. As a whole, the college pitching market has taken a hit in the early going of the season with the likes of Landon Sims, Adam Maier, Blade Tidwell, Peyton Pallette, and Carson Whisenhunt succumbing to injury and off-field issues. Despite the injuries at the top of the board and the class lacking a standout college arm, there still is plenty of quality pitching depth to choose from on day two and three of the draft. In this piece, I wanted to focus the attention on a handful of mid-major pitchers who have gotten off to hot starts and have taken the opportunity to rise up draft boards as a result of the injury riddled class at the top. The following players are ranked based on how they currently stand on the most recent Prospects Live Top 400 Draft Prospects.
RHP Connor Staine, Central Florida (Rank 82)
Fastball: 93-97 (55/60) Slider: 79-83 (50/55) Curveball: 73-76 (40/45) Changeup: 85-87 (40/40) Command (40/45)
Strengths: Staine has stifled opposing hitters in the early going to the tune of a .061 batting average against. He boosted his stock after dominating Ole Miss two weekends ago over the course of 7 innings in which he scattered 2 hits and fanned 10 Rebels. The Maryland transfer has already shown an increase in velocity since I last saw him on the Cape with the Brewster Whitecaps in 2021. It’s a four-pitch mix headlined by a lively fastball. The offering plays well up in the zone due to the above average carry and run he generates on the offering. Staine’s best secondary offering is his slider which he executes consistently and grades out as above average. The shape of his slider falls into the gyro bucket as the pitch falls off as it approaches the plate and has minimal lateral movement. He throws the slider hard and generates whiffs at a high rate (39%) to both lefties and righties.
Weaknesses: Despite the command he demonstrates with his slider, he will get erratic at times and have trouble finding the strike zone, particularly with his fastball. This is an area where mechanical adjustments could be made to clean up command in the long run. However, it is worth noting that he has now posted back-to-back starts with 0 BB’s, which will be an area to monitor moving forward. Nonetheless, there is plenty of projection still in the tank when taking into his account his athleticism and his raw pitch metrics. He has the traits to stick as a starter long term in pro-ball.
RHP Thomas Harrington, Campbell (Rank 87)
Fastball: 91-95 (50/55) Slider: 80-85 (50/55) Curveball: 75-80 (40/45) Changeup: 83-86 (55/60) Command: (50/55)
Strengths: Demonstrates great poise on the mound and throws plenty of strikes, which is a noticeable improvement from his 2021 campaign. He has been racking up the strikeout total in the early going as he has 40 K’s through 27 IP, with only 2 BB’s. It’s a deceptive operation coming from a low release height while hiding the ball well throughout his delivery. Fastball plays as a 2-seamer and sits 91-95 with plus lateral movement and late diving action. The changeup tunnels exceptionally well off of the 2-seamer and has plenty of lateral movement with late fading action. He pulls the string on the pitch to both lefties and righties (66% whiff%). The slider has two-plane movement with medium sweep and is a swing and miss offering in its own right. He has an athletic body with plenty of room for physical projection which could result in his arsenal to play up further down the line. Harrington profiles as a starter at the next level as he is able to mix his pitches and consistently induces soft contact and whiffs with all of his offerings.
Weaknesses: Sparingly uses his curveball despite having good depth and lateral movement on the offering. Oddly enough, his curveball is also a low spin pitch. He will become timid at times when throwing the slider and will lose control for short spurts of time as a result. It’s a pitch that can be thrown with more conviction as he continues to polish the offering.
RHP Drew Thorpe, Cal Poly (Rank 97)
Fastball: 90-94 (50/55) Slider: 78-82 (55/60) Changeup: 82-86 (55/60) Command (50/55)
Strengths: Thorpe continued his early season dominance by tossing a complete game shutout against Harvard on Friday in which he struck out 11 and walked 0. On the mound, he is a fierce competitor with a great on field makeup. He has an athletic body with room for projection which could result in his fastball to tick up from the 91-94 range. Both his slider and changeup profile as plus offerings down the line. The changeup has well above average lateral movement and effectively neutralizes both lefties and righties. He has a 55% whiff rate on the offering to go along with a .111 batting average against. The offering is located well at the bottom of the zone and induces soft contact. He creates great deception on the changeup as the offering tunnels well off his fastball and he maintains arm speed. He takes enough vertical break off of the offering in comparison to his fastball, which makes the pitch tough to recognize for opposing hitters. The slider profiles as a sweeper as the pitch consistently generates over 15” of horizontal break. Similar to the changeup, he has posted a gawdy whiff rate (50%) on the slider in the early going. Thorpe is a rapid riser and has a high upside starter profile.
Weaknesses: Despite the plus command of his off-speed offerings, Thorpe could increase his fastball command a touch as he will struggle locate the fastball at times. He has only walked two batters through 20 IP this spring. This is a credit to his ability to command his secondary offerings and evenly mix all of his pitches to keep hitters guessing.
LHP Trey Dombroski, Monmouth (Rank 127)
Fastball: 87-92 (45/50) Slider: 77-81 (55/60) Curveball:74-77 (45/50) Changeup: 85-87 (45/50) Command (60/60)
Strengths: The reigning Cape Cod League Pitcher of the Year, Trey Dombrowski has picked up right where he left off last summer. He has plus command of his pitch mix as he attacks all quadrants of the zone and keeps hitters off balance. His fastball plays well up in the zone despite the below average velocity. This can be a result of the high Bauer Units output he registers on the pitch (Bauer Units = spin rate/velocity). He also effectively manipulates the shape of his slider. He throws one that profiles more as a cutter and is used primarily to righties. The other slider reduces IVB off the cutter and generates more lateral movement and profiles more as standard slider. The standard slider is an effective swing and miss pitch to lefties. Dombroski has the makings of a starter long term due his feel to pitch and ability to get hitters out multiple times through the order.
Weakness: One of the concerns surrounding Dombroski is the lack of velocity on the fastball. He routinely sits in the 88-91 range. There are also questions surrounding his athleticism which may limit his ability to add velocity on a more rigorous throwing program in pro-ball. That being said, Dombroski dominated the Cape Cod League this past summer and has continued to get hitters out this spring due to his advanced pitchability.
RHP Patrick Pridgen, Florida International (Rank 136)
Fastball:92-97 (50/55) Slider: 82-87 (50/55) Curveball: 74-78 (40/45) Changeup:82-86 (45/50) Command: (40/45)
Strengths: Pridgen has bounced around a few schools during his college tenure making stops in the Juco ranks and at University of Oregon. He is experiencing a breakout year at Florida International due in large part to his velocity gains he has made in the last year. This is a credit to his work ethic as he has transformed himself from a fringe college player into a potential starter in pro-ball. He has improved his fastball command from 2021 to 2022 by throwing more strikes and being able to effectively locate the offering down in the zone. The fastball has good sinking action with late run. He relies on his slider and changeup as his go-to secondary offerings, and occasionally shows a curveball. It’s a high spin, sharp two plane slider with late bite. Changeup has late fading action and he is not afraid to throw it to lefties and righties. His slider and changeup have flashed the ability to be good out pitches when he is able to command.
Weaknesses: The slider and curveball grade out well from a raw metrics standpoint, but he does struggle to throw both offerings for strikes consistently. Pridgen is also one of the older college pitchers in this year's draft which limits his projection long term. Considering his age, he may provide teams great value on day two of the draft as an under-slot college arm signee.
RHP Trystan Vrieling, Gonzaga (Rank 139):
Fastball: 92-96 (50/55) Cutter: 86-89 (55/60) Slider: 80-85 (50/55) Curveball:80-84 (45/50) Changeup: 86-89 (40/40) Command (40/45)
Strengths: Vrieling’s teammates Gabriel Hughes and William Kempner have garnered majority of the buzz surrounding the Bulldogs staff, but Vrieling has quietly made his case to be a starter long term. He has a deep pitch mix with his fastball routinely sitting 92-96 with plus riding action. The cutter stands out as the best pitch in his arsenal, flashing plus at times. He does an exceptional job of reducing IVB off of his fastball and gets enough lateral movement to miss barrels. Vrieling commands his cutter well (71% K%) and generates whiffs (41%). His slider is closely aligned with the gyro family as it has minimal vertical/horizontal break and drops off late as it enters the hitting zone. Curveball has a 12-6 shape and is a sharp downward breaker which he is able to flip in for strikes early in counts.
Weaknesses: Despite the ability to command his sliders effectively, Vrieling does struggle to establish his fastball early in counts. This had led to a higher walk rate in the early going of the season. However, his fastball command is an area that can be trained moving forward as minor tweaks can be made to improve his misses in order to produce more quality strikes.
RHP Cory Lewis, UC Santa Barbara (Rank 168)
Fastball: 90-95 (50/55) Slider: 79-82 (50/55) Curveball: 78-83 (55/60) Changeup (40/45) Command (40/45)
Strengths: Lewis has experienced an uptick in velocity from his 2021 campaign as he has added three ticks on his fastball. He does an exceptional job of commanding the fastball up in the zone by getting behind the ball from his over-the-top release, which allows him to generate plus IVB outputs. He does a good job of mixing all of his off-speed pitches. He throws an overhand curveball with a spike grip and has big 12-6 shape with good depth. Slider is a two-plane breaker with minimal lateral movement. Both offerings have flashed above average, with the curveball flashing plus potential. The changeup tunnels well off the fastball as he takes just enough velocity and IVB off the offering to complement his elite riding action on the fastball. He has a sturdy frame with some projection still remaining which could result in more velocity in the future.
Weaknesses: If he is able to clean up the command with his curveball, we could be talking about a plus breaking pitch. The inconsistent command of his off-speed pitches has led to a higher walk rate (11 BB’s in 21.2 IP). The high pitch counts early in the game have limited Lewis’s ability to go deep into games. This is an area that can be improved by training his off-speed command in order to unlock more quality strikes early in counts. Lewis has the makings to be a durable back of the rotation major league starter if he is able to clean up his command.
RHP Jack Jasiak, South Florida (Unranked)
Fastball: 90-93 (50/55) Slider: 81-86 (50/55) Curveball (50/55) Changeup: 82-86 (40/45) Command: (50/55)
Strengths: Jasiak’s teammate Orion Kerkering has deservedly stolen the early headlines for USF and has been a rapid climber in his own right. However, Jasiak has quietly put together a tremendous season as the Bull’s Friday night starter. He fills the strike zone and commands all of his offerings. He has a unique fastball profile as he generates above average vertical and horizontal break while throwing from a lower release height. The slider and curveball has caused problems for opposing hitters as hitters have posted a .111 batting average against. Curveball has sharp downward action, and the slider classifies as a gyro slider due to minimal horizontal/vertical break. He does an excellent job of mixing all of his offerings which keeps opposing hitters off balance.
Weaknesses: A question moving forward for Jasiak will be whether or not he is capable of adding velocity to his fastball. He currently sits in the 90-93 range and his body is near maximum physical projection, which suggests that he has minimal room for strength gains. Despite the below average fastball velocity, he does compensate by having a unique release height and movement profile on the offering.
RHP Nolan DeVos, Davidson (Unranked)
Fastball: 91-96 (50/55) Slider: 83-86 (50/55) Curveball 74-77 (40/45) Changeup 83-86 (40/45) Command (45/50)
Strengths: Relies on a heavy fastball/slider mix which accounts for 90% of his pitches thrown this season. The fastball has great riding action coming from a lower release and has been up to 96. He establishes the zone with the fastball (70% strike%) with the offering fairing best up in the zone due to the lift he creates. Slider classifies as a sweeper due to the movement profile as he generates above average lateral movement. The command of his fastball sets up the slider late in the count as he is able to locate his slider on the edges and generates whiffs (44% whiff% w 2K). Intriguing high hop low release profile with some projection still remaining with his velocity.
Weaknesses: DeVos has been used primarily as a starter this spring despite lacking a deep pitch mix. Adding a third pitch may help him to effectively navigate through the order multiple times. He flashes a curveball and changeup which could be mixed more frequently in his sequencing to get hitters off of the fastball/slider, especially once he is in pro-ball. He could improve the execution of the slider early in counts by showing the ability to land for a strike consistently. Long term, DeVos profiles as a reliever due to his above average fastball/slider combination and lower release height. His stuff played up out of the bullpen this past summer in the Coastal Plains League in a role in which he excelled in. He would provide opposing hitters a different look out of the bullpen with his low release rise-ball and sweeper combination.