The third edition of the Fringe (College) Five is here with five more inconspicuous players from the college ranks. If you missed the initial Fringe (College) Five post, you could learn more about this series by following this link HERE. My methodology and criteria are below:
Methodology:
I intend to use available data, game footage, and live looks/scouting reports to fill my fringe five lists.
Criteria:
Must be eligible for the 2022 MLB Draft
Must play at the Division 1 College Level
Can’t be included on the current Prospects Live Draft Board.
As promised, this final edition will focus entirely on bats. This group of position players have diverse skills, with some power bats, speed demons, and premium defenders included. With the Prospects Live Draft Board extended to 600 players, it’s gotten harder to find worthy inclusions for the Fringe Five. That said, I feel pretty good about this group and think each player offers something of value to pro teams. With this being the final edition of the Fringe (College) Five before the 2022 draft, I would like to thank everyone for reading these articles and following along. I plan on continuing this series into 2023 with earlier and more regular updates. Without further ado, here’s the last Fringe (College) Five of the 2022 draft season.
Dylan Rock, OF, Texas A&M
Bats/Throw: Right / Right
Height/Weight: 6’1 / 210
Year/Draft Age: Graduate / 23.11
The transfer market went wild before the start of the 2022 college season with stars like Jacob Berry, Chandler Simpson, and LuJames Groover switching allegiances. Dylan Rock didn't receive that kind of hype as a grad transfer from UTSA, but you can argue that he was just as impactful this past spring. Rock performed from day one at TAMU, and he entered May with a .317 average and eleven homers. However, there were reasons to believe Rock would slow down with enhanced competition in SEC play and the conference tournament. Instead, Rock ratcheted things up a notch. He maintained a .317+ average while increasing his walk rate and isolated power significantly. Rock hit 8 of his 19 homers from May 3rd to June 22nd, many of which came against legitimate draft talents (Dylan DeLucia, Garrett Wright, David Sandlin, etc.). The obvious strike against Rock will be his age since he’ll be 24 years old this August. However, looking under the hood, you can see that Rock is a worthy draft pick and arguably the top “senior discount” hitter in the entire draft.
Rock has a thick, medium athletic build with a solid power/speed combo, as evidenced by his nineteen homers and sixteen steals. After four highly successful seasons at UTSA, Rock profiled more as a “tweener,” an outfielder with not enough speed or range for centerfield and not enough over-the-fence power for an outfield corner. But Rock’s power explosion for an SEC club may have done enough to change some scouts' minds. While his max exit velocity isn’t overly exciting, Rock does have a high percentage of hard-hit balls (just under 40%). On top of that, a large chunk of his batted balls are either line drives or fly balls, giving him a shot to collect an extra handful of homers despite less than plus raw power. Rock also has a good feel for the barrel as he’s able to make consistent hard contact, even against quality arms. Rock’s ability to command the strike zone has always been his strength, and that skill continued to show up as an Aggie. Rock has a well above average chase rate and has been able to limit expanding the zone against both fastballs and breaking balls. He’s handled velocity this year with a contact rate against 93+ MPH fastballs above 80%. Rock tends to get out in front against offspeed, causing swings and misses and weak popups. The overall package of plate discipline (he walked more than he struck out in ‘22), hard contact, and ability to launch the ball in the air should be enough to intrigue pro clubs at least.
While Rock isn’t a burner, he’s a heady baserunner who plays the game hard and opportunistically. He’ll steal his fair share of bases in the pros, and he’ll be able to provide better than average defense in an outfield corner. All in all, Rock has a well-rounded skill set with SEC production under his belt and a long track record of success at the dish. While you can’t completely ignore his age, it seems foolish for anyone to completely dismiss him after the season he just had. Rock profiles as a potential platoon/bench bat who can work counts and provide a little thump and speed. Don’t be surprised if he’s one of the first grads/seniors off the board next week.
Trevor Werner, 3B, Texas A&M
Bats/Throw: Right / Right
Height/Weight: 6’3 / 220
Year/Draft Age: Third-Year Sophomore / 21.10
I promise this whole post isn’t reserved for Aggies. Trevor Werner was someone I’ve kept my eye on for a while now, and he finally started to give us a glimpse into what kind of talent he is. Formerly a two-way player, Werner didn’t take the mound this year and instead focused on hitting exclusively. Nearly all of Werner’s freshman season was wiped out by the pandemic, and then he played sparingly in 2021 while battling some injuries. He was banged up early this spring with a hand injury that caused him to miss the entire month of March. It wasn’t long after Werner returned that he started solidifying his position atop the Aggies lineup. The final batting line won’t blow anyone away, but there are reasons to believe there is more in the tank for Werner moving forward.
First and foremost, it’s important to remember that this was essentially Werner’s first season of college baseball. He had just 94 plate appearances before this spring, and a large portion of his time was spent on the mound. Werner was as green as a third-year college hitter could be, yet he still showed off impressive tools and performed well. Werner is large and extremely physical. It’s easy to envision him on a mound given his build, as he looks like a power-armed pitcher. Instead, Werner played third base for TAMU, showing off his exceptional arm strength that profiles well at the hot corner. He’s still raw defensively and might never be a truly average defender. Still, I could see him developing into a serviceable third baseman in the mold of another former two-way player, Austin Riley. The power arm on defense gives way to massive raw power at the plate. Werner is in the upper tier across the board regarding power metrics. His hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and max exit velocity are all excellent. Werner has several batted balls with EVs over 110 MPH and a max EV of 113 MPH. And like his teammate Dylan Rock, Werner hits a large percentage of his batted balls in the air. Quite frankly, Werner is one of the top power bats in the 2022 college class that nobody is talking about. The bat speed, the strength, and the ability to barrel the baseball are all there for Werner.
So what’s the downside? Well, as you can see with the strikeout rate, Werner has a propensity to swing and miss. A K rate of 25% is too high at the college level, especially for a hitter like Werner, who lacks a track record of success. His zone discipline is close to average, so at the very least, he doesn’t have a major approach issue. But there is a good deal of swing and miss both inside and outside of the strike zone. When you see him hit, you can tell that Werner has a long pair of arms, which can be a factor in a hitter’s ability to control the strike zone. Thankfully, there’s enough impact potential on contact that Werner may be able to provide value even with an elevated whiff rate. There’s also growth potential as Werner focuses solely on hitting while racking up more reps at the plate in games. It would not surprise me if Werner returned to TAMU for another year to continue to boost his stock, but any team drafting him would be taking a chance at a nice lottery ticket with some explosive tools.
Josiah Sightler, OF, South Carolina
Bats/Throw: Left / Left
Height/Weight: 6’5 / 235
Year/Draft Age: Fourth-Year Junior / 22.08
If Trevor Werner is the type of player that tickles your fancy, then you’ll want to listen up for this next fringe five player. Josiah Sightler is basically a more extreme version of Werner. Like Werner, Sightler was a two-way player who pitched briefly this season without much success. Sightler was primarily a DH for the Gamecocks with a handful of games in both outfield corners and first base. Sightler is supremely physical with a hulking frame and surprising swiftness, considering his size. The raw power is immense, and you’d struggle to find many hitters who hit the ball harder than Sightler did this spring. Here are some college hitters with a lower average exit velocity than Sightler:
Of course, there’s a lot more to evaluating hitters than looking at their average exit velocity, but this table does illustrate the level of power and strength we are talking about with Sightler. Over 45% of Sightler’s batted balls had an exit velocity of 98 MPH or higher. Sightler has good loft in his swing and can get the ball in the air to his pull side consistently. The potential game power for Sighter at the next level is at least a plus tool, and he’s shown it against SEC opponents. According to the Gamecocks Twitter account, Sightler batted .340 and had a 763 slugging percentage in SEC play, with eleven of his fifteen homers coming against SEC opponents. Unfortunately, Sightler does have whiff issues, and his contact rate was even lower than Trevor Werner’s. Sightler has fringe-average plate discipline at best, and he’ll swing through pitches inside the strike zone at an elevated rate. Still, Sightler really grew as a hitter over the past few years, and you can tell he was finally starting to swing the bat with some confidence as the season progressed. He missed time early in the year and battled through some injuries but was still able to perform at a high level. Those injuries likely prevented him from playing regularly on defense, but there’s a chance that Sightler could fill a corner outfield role at the next level with better health. Sightler is closer to 23 than 22, which might hurt his draft stock, but sluggers from the SEC like Sightler usually get scooped up sooner rather than later. Sightler has some upside, and he’s currently trending in the right direction as an offensive talent.
Jackson Loftin, SS, Oral Roberts
Bats/Throw: Right / Right
Height/Weight: 6’2 / 195
Year/Draft Age: Fourth-Year Junior / 22.02
I have to give Patrick Ebert of D1Baseball.com credit for putting Jackson Loftin on my radar. Ebert was able to get some live looks of Loftin over the summer while he was playing with Fond du Lac in the Northwoods League, one of the better college summer leagues in the nation. Ebert predicted a 2022 breakout for Loftin after mostly struggling with Sam Houston State. For the summer, Loftin had a .310/.439/.478 batting line with 6 homers, 49 steals (59 attempts), 38 walks, and 35 strikeouts in 237 plate appearances.
Loftin transferred to Oral Roberts and quickly demonstrated his newfound offensive prowess by becoming one of the top hitters in the Summit League. He has good size with a solid, well-proportioned build. Loftin hits from a crouched, slightly closed stance with a lower handset and the bat nearly resting on his shoulder. The swing includes a sizable leg lift and stride while the hands move quickly with good adjustability. Loftin shows low ball proclivity and is able to get a good vertical bat angle with lift on pitches down in the zone. He'll flash the ability to flatten the barrel on pitches up in the zone but Loftin hasn't been tested with much high end velocity (93+ MPH) so it remains to be seen if he can catch up to velocity up in the zone. Loftin's raw power is near average, he limits the weak contact, and his line drive+fly ball rate is above average. The contact rate on pitches inside the strike zone is pretty good, but he did expand the zone a bit more than you'd like to see.
Loftin's speed is an easy plus tool and his instincts and aggressiveness on the basepaths allows him to cause havoc and impact the game with his legs. Between his 2021 summer and 2022 spring, Loftin stole 74 bases in 83 attempts, a success rate of 83%. Loftin has good range at shortstop and is good at going back on short fly balls and popups. He's relatively sure-handed and his hands work quickly especially when making transfers to turn double plays. Loftin doesn't have typical arm strength and arm utility for shortstop which likely means Loftin will bounce around defensively rather than being a primary shortstop at the next level. With his speed, ability to cover ground, and the way he tracks fly balls and popups it makes sense for a pro team to test him out in centerfield. I expect Loftin will turn into a swiss army type defender in the Chris Taylor mold. Loftin recently turned 22 which combined with his lack of opportunities against higher quality competition, limits his overall draft stock despite showing a dynamic skill set. He could go late on day two to a team that is bullish on his recent uptick in production. If not, he looks like a sneaky value pick on day three with more tools and performance than your typical older, college bat.
Adam Crampton, SS, Stanford
Bats/Throw: Right / Right
Height/Weight: 6’1 / 180
Year/Draft Age: Third-Year Sophomore / 21.02
I'm not going to try and sell you on Adam Crampton being some kind of special offensive talent that's on the precipice of a major offensive boon. Crampton has long been a bottom-third of the order hitter with limited power (3 homers in over 500+ career plate appearances) and physical projection. But Crampton does have one tool that is a bit of a rarity at the college level and is highly valued by pro clubs. It's his ability to defend at the most difficult non-catcher position on the diamond. Crampton's defense at shortstop has long been his major strength, and it's why he plays every day in a deep and highly talented Stanford lineup. Crampton isn't overly flashy, but he's a dependable glove with all of the individual skills necessary to be an asset defensively at the next level. His defensive wizardry was on display all spring which led to him being named PAC-12 defensive player of the year.
When you can reliably hold down the fort at shortstop, typically, it will keep you in the game for an extended period. Even as an "organizational" player, Crampton adds some value, and sticking around in pro ball will give him added opportunities to grow as a hitter. Though Crampton's bat is light, he put the ball in play, limited the strikeouts, and showed off quality situational hitting skills. His swing is geared for low launch contact with the ability to make solid contact from line to line. Crampton does a good job taking what pitchers give him and is adept at serving the ball up the middle for base knocks. While Crampton is unlikely to provide much value with the bat, there is a path to a useful utility/reserve role because of his defense. Crampton may ultimately opt to return for another at Stanford, but he makes sense as a day three pick for teams looking to fill an organizational hole.