Up and down the minors, the Diamondbacks are teeming with talent, giving them one of the best farm systems in baseball. When looking at who’s in their outfield pipeline, this especially becomes evident. During this year alone, two of their top prospects, Alek Thomas and Corbin Caroll, made their debuts and are now patrolling the grass in Chase Field. On top of that, the Dbacks added Druw Jones, who Prospects Live ranked as the number 1 prospect for the 2022 draft, to their impressive crop of players.
Though Arizona fans have a lot to be excited about in the coming years, their performance in the second half (25-19) has added some excitement for this current season. A large factor in the team’s turnaround has been the breakout of 25-year-old Jake McCarthy, who now adds one more name to their rich collection of outfielders. In 2021, Prospect’s Live ranked McCarthy as the 20th best prospect in Arizona’s system, saying, “If the positive reports from the alternative site regarding his power show up in games during 2021 McCarthy has a real chance to blossom into a true everyday regular profile.” From June on this year, he has done just that and more.
In his 136 plate appearances that spanned from last year to May of this year, McCarthy struggled, posting a disappointing 78 wRC+. However, in his 188 plate appearances since June 1, McCarthy has nearly doubled his previous wRC+, increasing it to 147. Let’s look into how this has happened:
IMPROVEMENTS AT THE PLATE
Between last offseason and this season, Jake McCarthy overhauled his stance. Though he started off slowly this season, the stance and swing change certainly has played a role in his breakout. As opposed to his more crouched and closed stance from last season (left), McCarthy now (right) stands upright and open in the box. Through his load, he gets back into a similar position to his last year’s stance but now is able to drive through his swing better, leading to great results.
At the plate, McCarthy has taken a much less passive approach. In his first 136 trips to the plate, only swung at a 43.2% clip, checking in below the league average of 47.1%. Since June, he’s been much more aggressive swinging 53.3% of the time. The higher swing rates have especially been prevalent on the first pitch of the at-bat. From 2021 to 2022, he increased his swing percentage on first pitches by 13.6% (27.1% to 40.7%). However, it’s also important to note that he has also seen the number of first-pitch strikes climb he sees climb by 12.4%. Overall, at the plate, McCarthy now tries to take control of the at-bat rather than take pitches, which can also explain his walk (9.6% to 6.9%) and strike out rates (33.8% to 16.0%) dropping between the two periods of note. The two graphics below compare his swing rates by zone in 2021 (top) and his swing rates by zone in 2022 (bottom), showing a much more aggressive approach, especially on pitches slightly outside the zone:
His contact rates have followed a similar trajectory to his swing rates. From his first 134 PAs to the following 188, he’s increased his contact rate from 67.8% to 75.5%, which is now only slightly below league average. On both in-zone (78.7% to 84.2%) and out-of-zone contact (46.2% to 60.3%), he’s seen impactful gains. Against both breaking balls and offspeed, this holds especially true. In 2021, he missed both types of pitches at over a 50% rate, but this year, he has dropped his whiff rates against both pitches to below 40%. This improved contact against the pitched has led to much stronger results: .358 wOBA against breaking balls vs. .193 last season, and .316 wOBA against offspeed vs. .193 last season. His improved contact rates have made him a threat against all pitch types in the box.
AREAS TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE
Similarly to Nico Hoerner, McCarthy could still benefit from increasing his launch angle. This season, his average launch angle is 7.9%, which is below the league average of 12.1%. His flyball rate has dropped since his results began improving in June from 36.1% to 26.9%. Though he’s hitting more line drives, which is what is best for him, it would be good to see him maintain his 24% line drive rate while also hitting more flyballs. On flies this season, he has a 131 wRC+, so if he can start to hit more and raise his launch angle, there may be more power production to tap.
McCarthy has a more center-focused approach at the plate with a 42.9% straight-away percentage. Though he hits extremely well up the middle, he may benefit from adopting a more pull-oriented approach by raising his current 33.3% pull rate. This season six of his seven homers have come to right field (as seen below), and when pulling the ball, he has a 239 wRC+ according to Fangraphs, by far the highest of any region. With the news of the shift ban coming to baseball next season, it may be the perfect time for McCarthy to make the switch.
GOING FORWARD
Four years after being selected in the first round out of UVA by the Diamondbacks, Jake McCarthy seems to be emerging as an important part of Arizona’s lineup. The athletic outfielder has been one of the team’s most integral players in their strong second half, positioning himself as one of the building blocks in their future lineups. This season he’s shown the ability to make mechanical adjustments, make his approach more aggressive, and make contact at a higher rate, all of which have led to his emergence since June. If he can continue to improve his ability to hit the ball in the air and focus it more on the pull side, there may be even greater power production than currently being seen. After putting up 2.0 fWAR through 77 games this season, McCarthy has given Arizona fans another young outfielder to be excited about for the future.