A few weeks ago, with the help of some friends, I broke down pitch tunneling as a concept. Sometimes good stuff is not enough. However, tunneling is not a magic pill to find success at the major league level. That means there is still a mandate for quality stuff (or failing that, elite command). That is why today we will look at three prospects who combine the best of both worlds with a plus in-zone whiff rate and a plus chase rate. Those are basic proxies for both stuff and tunnels. We will then break down why it works and how they can get even better.
Eury Pérez, RHP (MIA)
Eury Pérez is arguably the best pitching prospect in all of baseball. The 19-year-old is already logging a full season in Double-A and has a 27 K-BB% at that level. He averages 97 MPH on the fastball with above-average ride. He throws three other above-average (or better) pitches. There is no questioning how talented the 6’9” teenager is. He has obscene stuff with plus command. Eury also has exceptional tunnels, however. The blend of stuff, tunnels, and command makes Eury a very attractive arm.
The slider is a recent addition this year and the perfect complement to the fastball. He throws a moderately hard gyro slider with only 13” of horizontal separation from the four-seam fastball that has some tail. He sits at 85 MPH on the slider with some lift and it lets the fastball and slider naturally play off of each other. Eury works with the slider on the bottom glove side corner of the zone with remarkable consistency. Nearly half of his slider wind up in the zone and when he leaves the zone, he gets chases a little over 35% of the time. The ability to zone the slider or make batters expand has resulted in a CSW% over 40% against the slider this year.
The changeup is Eury’s best chase pitch with a 38% chase rate this year, and also his best pitch for missing bats. He throws the changeup 7 MPH slower than the fastball and performs working off of the somewhat low fastball. Pérez gets only average movement on the changeup but shows exceptional feel and locates it optimally to have it perform off of the fastball below the zone and within it. The one critique you can make of the changeup is that Eury zones it less than a third of the time, but it’s deceptive enough with his arm speed that I don’t think it needs to be zoned frequently in order to perform.
The curveball is distinct from the slider, but it’s more of a second slider than a curve. He throws it with -1.1” IVB and 5” of sweep. He adds 4” of movement on both planes in exchange for 4 MPH of velocity. The intention of the pitch is completely different, with the slower hybrid pitch being used along the bottom edge of the zone with the intent of garnering called strikes. This slider is only an average chase pitch but because of a 57% zone rate and the lack of swings it baits, Eury actually has a CSW% over 45% against the second slider.
Eury Pérez is a likely front-of-the-rotation starter. He throws a fastball with elite stuff and also builds highly effective tunnels off of the aforementioned fastball. The package of plus stuff and good tunneling ability is highly effective on its own. Still, Eury brings it all together with plus command and that plays in both the ability to live in the shadow zone with the fastball when needed and zone his secondaries at will. There are very few wasted pitches from Eury and that efficiency might let him work deep in games at the major league level. Of every minor leaguer with at least 50 innings this year (1172 pitchers), only Eury Pérez has plus chase rates, plus zone rates, and plus in-zone whiff rates. This is an elite combination of everything you want from a starting pitcher, and the fact that he is 19 only makes it even more impressive.
River Ryan, RHP (LAD)
River Ryan was the Padres 11th round pick in 2021. They traded him to the Dodgers for Matt Beaty back in march. The Padres drafted Ryan as a two-way player, but he exclusively played the infield with the Padres after the draft. The Dodgers also abandoned the two-way thing, but they wisely did it in deference to having River Ryan on the mound. It has taken just 45 innings for Ryan to establish himself as one of the most intriguing pitching prospects in the game.
River Ryan has an elite fastball. He averages nearly 96 MPH on his heater and can touch 99 out of the rotation. On top of offering premium velocity, Ryan has plus vertical movement with 18.5” IVB on average, and solid horizontal as well at 9.3” HB. The angle is somewhat generic with the fastball, and Ryan has subpar command, but the fastball still baits out of zone swings and racks up in-zone whiffs at the top of the zone where he frequently will locate the pitch because of the speed and movement on it.
The slider is another plus pitch in Ryan’s arsenal. He throws it just a hair under 89 MPH with movement just within the perfect ranges for a slider to tunnel. His slider is a sort of cutter hybrid with ~4.5” inches of movement on both planes. The premium velocity allows the slider to miss bats, and he gets chases at an above-average rate with the pitch, because he has just under 14” of horizontal separation, and is also in the ideal range for velocity, and IVB separation. The slider has some issues with occasionally losing his control and missing way out of the zone with non-competitive pitches. However, more often than not, he is in the zone, and performing within it.
The curveball is outstanding. River Ryan throws it hard at 81 MPH with spin rates nearing 2700 RPMs. The curveball mirrors the fastball movement almost perfectly with -14.9” IVB, and 9.7” HB. If Ryan were to up the curveball spin efficiency, this could be a third plus pitch in his arsenal. As is, the curveball works as a called strike weapon to an extent because he zones it so often, but it also gets swings both in and out of the zone based on how the shape interacts with the fastball.
The changeup rounds things out and also has at least average upside, but command holds it back. River Ryan is already 24 and has just 11 innings in A+, but the stuff should still play in a big way. The stuff is there, and it all plays up off of the other pitches in his repertoire. Ryan has some control woes to work through.
These issues are almost exclusively against left-handed hitters where the changeup plays a much more prominent role, and it’s by far his weakest pitch. I think the slider should still be viable against left-handed hitters because of the great tunnel and high-quality stuff, so it might be worth lowering the changeup usage in favor of more sliders. This would likely cut down on the walks some, at the very least, and could have gains in other areas as well. Worst case, the stuff will play in relief, but I think Ryan can be a starter in the major leagues within a few years.
Michael Dominguez, RHP (TOR)
Michael Dominguez is one of my favorite sleeper prospects in all of minor league baseball. He has a fastball that could be electric and two secondaries that tunnel incredibly well off of both the fastball and each other. The shape is very intriguing on at least one of them as well. The missing ingredients here are velocity, command, and consistency, but I think Dominguez has significant upside based on the bat missing potential he possesses.
The fastball is incredibly flat, and I mean that in the best of ways. Dominguez is a short king who stands in at 5’10”, and as a result, releasing the ball from a standard ¾ arm slot has his vertical release point at just 5.3’ on average. As the release height is born of his height rather than the arm slot, Dominguez is still capable of generating plus vertical movement and averaged 17.9” IVB in Low-A this year. The combination of vertical movement and a low release height lead to a mere -4.11° VAA with the pitch. That would be the fourth highest of any major league starting pitcher this year behind only Cristian Javier, Joe Ryan, and Freddy Peralta. The fastball still needs more velocity as he only sits at 91.3 MPH, but even at that speed we have seen fastballs like this perform in the past. (Albeit with better command).
As exceptional as the fastball is, the slider is the more interesting pitch, as it serves as a bit of a unicorn offering. Calling Dominguez’s slider a slider might be a misnomer, as there are only two sliders in the majors with remotely comparable movement. Dominguez throws the slider just under 10 MPH slower than the fastball with 9.9” IVB and 8.2” HB. Here is every breaking ball (Including cutters) in the majors within an inch of him in both vertical and horizontal movement.
To be fair, there are some sliders with as much vertical movement, and a lot more sweep, but those are all below 80 MPH and all of them are still relatively effective. There is also Kenley Jansen’s cutter with as much horizontal movement and an extra 6.5” of vertical movement at 92.5 MPH, but that’s not really comparable either unfortunately. Regardless, this is a rare pitch shape, and even Dominguez isn’t really comparable to the only two somewhat comparables.
Dominguez has the same velocity separation as Manning does, but the actual difference is in the fastball movement profile. Matt Manning has 3” of horizontal movement on his fastball. Estrada is at 2.5”. Dominguez? He is at 9”. Whereas Manning and Estrada are perfectly in the ideal ranges of separation for a tunnel horizontally, Dominguez is not. He still checks the other two boxes, so it works to an extent, but how well?
Matt Manning gets 70th percentile chase rates on the slider, and 93rd percentile in-zone whiff rates. I think it’s likely that Dominguez gets slightly fewer chases with his slider (assuming equal command), but I also think he’ll miss just as many bats in the zone if he adds velocity, and that is the more valuable element of Manning’s unicorn slider. This is a totally unique pitch that I think can make an impact at the major league level in the future.
The changeup is poor in a vacuum. Fortunately for Michael Dominguez, baseball is not played in a vacuum. The changeup has just over 10 MPH of velocity separation from the fastball with what is actually slightly less horizontal movement at just 7.1” of tail and it has limited depth as well with 9.7” IVB. The appeal of the changeup is the velocity separation when the movement profile blends with the fastball so much. He uses the changeup down and off the plate to left-handed batters frequently and that is where the pitch is at its best. He has over 3° of VAA separation from the fastball, and changeups with such extreme VAA separation average a chase rate of 36%. Zoning the changeup is a work in progress, but he gets chases, and whiffs in the zone when he is in there. It plays off the slider as well because the two pitches have identical velocity and IVB.
Michael Dominguez has a problem allowing hard contact that is likely mostly a direct result of his velocity. Also, the slider shape is probably a factor as Manning also has terrible wOBAcons off of his slightly better variant. I think the most likely outcome for the 5’10” Dominguez is a relief role, hoping to add more velocity there. If you can add 2 MPH to all of Dominguez’s pitches, however, there is a genuine opportunity for him to start games in the majors. All three of his pitches would perform with a tiny bit more velocity, and the command is mostly passable, even if not quite good. Dominguez is not a magnificent prospect yet, but he could soar up lists in the future.
Other Notable Names with Plus ZWhiff% and Plus Chase%: Ricky Tiedemann, Nick Frasso, Prelander Berroa, Yu-Min Lin