In today’s game, “stuff” rules supreme. It’s a three-true-outcome meta and strikeouts are king. Organizations believe they can turn pure raw stuff into usable big league pitching no matter the command woes. Frankly, in most cases they’re correct. There will always be a threshold where “effectively wild” dissipates and a pitcher’s control becomes a liability, but by and large, teams will always take shots on guys with special arms.
There’s evidence of it all over the fingerprint of the game right now. Seattle Mariners reliever Matt Brash pitched 50.2 innings in 2022 and walked 33 hitters. Yet still he was favored in high-leverage situations because his stuff is so unhittable, posting one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball. Among those qualified, Dylan Cease led all pitchers with 3.82 BB/9 last season. He also finished second in Cy Young voting. If you boil it down to pitchers that threw at least 40 innings, Miami Marlins lefty Tanner Scott led all of baseball with 6.61 BB/9 this season, yet he too was used in high-leverage situations for much of the season. Why? Scott finished in the Top 10 in K/9 for relievers. His 12.93 K/9 mark was the second-best of any lefty reliever, trailing only Josh Hader.
There’s evidence in recent drafts too. Teams can look past polish and target guys who they believe can be molded into fire extinguishers. In 2021, the Phillies drafted Virginia fireballer Griff McGarry in the fifth round and gave him close to full slot. McGarry walked 42 hitters in 43 innings his senior year. Now he’s knocking on the door of the big leagues and has nearly cut his walk-rate in half. Nick Nastrini was a fourth-round pick by the Dodgers that year. Big stuff, but 38 walks in 31.1 innings as a college junior was alarming. Now he’s a Top 10 prospect for the Dodgers after posting just 55 walks in 117 innings last season at High-A and Double-A. Drafts are littered with guys like this in the first handful of rounds. McCade Brown to the Rockies in 2021, Last year saw Jacob Misiorowski and William Kempner go to the Brewers and Giants respectively. These are names that struggled to throw strikes in college but now find themselves mentioned among top prospect lists across the internet.
At the end of the day, stuff pays and stuff plays.
With that, let’s look at five pitchers set to become draft-eligible in 2023. All six selected for this piece presently display below-average-or-worse control of the baseball. But the stuff is loud. For this exercise, we’ll be using Johnny Davis’ Stuff+ model. Davis is a contributor to Prospects Live. He built his Stuff+ model using eleven parameters that weigh off each other to create a composite score for each pitch. Davis’ model does not veer far off from traditional Stuff+ models presented at other sites.
Mikey Tepper
FB: 165 Stuff+
SL: 132 Stuff+
CB: 126 Stuff+
CH: 102 Stuff+
After spending two seasons at Mississippi State, Tepper is set to take on a larger role in the rotation at Liberty this spring. It was a tough go in Starkville for Tepper, walking 34 batters in 36.2 innings in relief. He’d pitch for Falmouth on the Cape this summer, however, striking out 15 in 13 innings, walking just six batters. According to Davis’ model, four of Tepper’s four-seam fastballs graded out inside the top ten for best fastballs thrown on the Cape all summer. It may be a sneak peek of what’s to come.
With a Stuff+ score of 165, Tepper’s four-seam fastball graded out as the 8th best four-seamer in college baseball in 2022. His fastball displays a flat, vertical shape with almost no arm-side run. He sat 94 but could reach back for 98 and exceed 21 inches of carry at times. Tepper was 94-97 this fall and if he can hold that sort of velocity over longer outings, the fastball has a chance to be pretty special. Tepper will work in a slider and a curveball, both sit close to 130 on Davis’ Stuff+ model. They’re both “tunnelers” buoyed by late shape and exceptional depth. The slider grades out a tick better than the bender with mid-80s velocity, the aforementioned curve sitting a few ticks lower with significantly more break. Tepper’s feel for manipulating the baseball is strong. Keeping him in and around the zone should allow the stuff to wreak havoc on the Atlantic Sun Conference in 2023.
Garrett Wright
FB: 170 Stuff+
SL: 152 Stuff+
A lockdown two-pitch reliever for the TCU Horned Frogs, Wright posted a 2.89 ERA in 2022 despite walking 16 batters in his 18.2 innings of work. His 27 punched tickets speak to just how good the stuff can be. He’ll once again command a high-leverage bullpen role in 2023 where he’ll be expected to shutdown games late.
Wright’s fastball could become a real weapon if he learns to command it at the top of the zone. Like Tepper, Wright’s heater is reasonably flat and vertical lacking much horizontal tilt. With a Stuff+ grade of 170, he possessed the fourth-“stuffiest” heater in college ball last season according to Davis’ model, although it should be missing more bats than it actually did. Wright can reach back for 98 but sat 95-97 comfortably over his short outings. Command will be the name of the game here as Wright isn’t necessarily the most deceptive arm out there. His heater will need to live at or above the letters. Wright throws his slider extremely firm, up to 90 mph, generally sitting 86-88. It grades out with a Stuff+ score of 152. The velocity plays a big part in that, but he gets exceptional depth on the pitch too. It falls at the table, biting hard late. He shows a willingness and comfortability to throw it to both-handed hitters as well. Wright’s slider ranked inside the top ten for whiff-rate last season among pitchers that threw at least 100 sliders on the season.
Eriq Swan
FF: 138 Stuff+
SI: 129 Stuff+
SL: 120 Stuff+
CH:114 Stuff+
Middle Tennessee State hasn’t produced a top-five round selection since 2015 when Ronnie Jebavy was selected by the Giants. Eight years later, it’s unlikely Swan lasts past the first 150 picks. At 6-foot-6, 230 pounds, Swan may have the hottest fastball of the 2023 class, already touching 102 mph. Despite the velocity, his 2022 production was stymied by 31 walks over 52 innings. Swan has the body, the delivery, and the arsenal to start at the next level. Finding more of the zone will be critical.
Swan’s fastball is the breadwinner here, up to 102, sitting 95+ last season. Scouts expect a further tick up in the stuff department after a loud Cape showing with Wareham where he averaged close to 97 mph over eight innings. Last season his four-seamer graded out at 138 on Davis’ Stuff+ model. The pitch has a good bit of hop and arm-side run, but its stuff grade is certainly buoyed a bit by the pure velocity. Given Swan’s high release point, some believe leaning harder on his sinker may be the best path forward. He can induce close to 20 inches of bore at his best, an elite figure if he can find consistency with the pitch. Without confirmation, this could actually be a situation Swan is throwing one fastball, but it is registering as two separate pitches with Swan struggling to find the feel for a consistent release point. He’ll mix in a gyro slider with almost 15 mph of separation off his fastball and some strong tunneling traits. That separation does the heavy lifting in creating a 120 Stuff+ score. Swan needs to get a bit more depth on his changeup, but the horizontal tilt and velocity separation both play right now.
Swan has immense arm talent and could end up the hardest thrower in the class. He needs to polish up his stuff profile and make it more representative of movement traits and not so reliant on velocity and velocity differential. If he can develop a true weapon that moves, he has top-50 pick upside.
Ethan Chenault
FF: 108 Stuff+
SL: 130 Stuff+
CB: 152 Stuff+
UNC-Wilmington righty Ethan Chenault will be draft-eligible for the second time in 2023 but has the foundational pieces to see his game soar this season. Scouts want to see more defining traits behind the fastball this spring. If that happens, his name could skyrocket up boards. Over 39 innings last season, including three starts, Chenault struck out 53 batters but surrendered 27 walks.
The two breaking balls are the bread and butter here. The curveball especially really shines in Davis’ model grading out at 152. Of the pitchers that threw at least 100 curveballs last season, Chenault’s graded out fourth best. At 82 mph, few others could match his two-plane tilt at that velocity. Chenault gets an especially high amount of sweep on the pitch. In fact, from this chair, only Marcus Morgan of Iowa (a 2024 arm) can claim a more impressive shape with high velocity as the prerequisite. Chenault’s slider is also daunting, though it can melt in with his curveball at times since the velocity differential on the two pitches isn’t much. Chenault been up to 85 mph with his slider. A mid-80s sweeper with north of 12” of sweep would play in the big leagues tomorrow.
As previously mentioned, the fastball will need to take a jump here. Chenault can touch 94, but he generally sits a few ticks lower than that with reasonably ordinary shape. He’s without question a draft guy this year, but the heater will likely dictate how high his stock can rise.
Lebarron Johnson
FF: 150 Stuff+
SL: 126 Stuff+
The University of Texas has been pumping out some real heat the last few years and Lebarron Johnson is no different. A two-pitch reliever with serious juice, Johnson threw just 17 innings in 2022, walking 11 hitters, punching out 21. He parlayed his limited action into a summer with Chatham, pitching 7.1 more innings, walking 6. It’s easy velocity and scouts see a guy who’s going to throw even harder once he gets his mechanics down pat.
The fastball is the headline-grabber here with a Stuff+ grade of 150. Johnson can touch 98, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he tickles triple digits in 2023. It’s a vertical four-seamer with some arm-side run, though Johnson’s fastball shape has been inconsistent at best. When he’s right and fully efficient, Johnson can grab north of 23 inches of carry in the upper-90s. The fastball can be a legit weapon if Johnson learns to repeat his operation and his release with more consistency. His slider is already an above average offering according to models, though it's heavily skewed by velocity. Johnson can touch 90 and comfortably sits 87-89. He gets solid depth on the pitch and reaped a 46-percent whiff rate on 24 swings on the pitch last season. Johnson has plenty of projection ahead of him and areas to grow his game. The pure stuff is already there and he’s a prime candidate to handle high-leverage spots for the Longhorns.