In recent years, Major League Baseball has seen a surge of pitching prospects drafted after the first round skyrocket up prospect lists. These pitchers generally have one or two things in common. They’re either exceptional movers with considerable projection, or they’re metric darlings with outlier pitch-shaping qualities.
The Seattle Mariners and Cleveland Guardians have been particularly effective identifying these players over the last handful of drafts. Guys like Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale both saw their velocity and pure stuff take leaps in professional ball after being selected as “polished” arms in the fourth and third round in their respective drafts. 2021 Guardians fifth rounder Tanner Bibee appears to be on a similar path. After punching out just 67 batters and walking just 21 over 89.2 innings at Fullerton in 2021, Bibee saw his strikeout-per-9 rate jump to 11.3 in 2022.
Seattle has seen Logan Gilbert and George Kirby both supercharge their fastball quality since joining the organization. Both were long, lean strike-throwers in college, generally sitting in the low-90s. They’ll both tickle 99 on a nightly basis these days. The Mariners’ 2021 fourth-rounder Bryce Miller is following in their footsteps. After being mostly 92-95 at Texas A&M, Miller is touching 99 at some point during most of his starts, resting 96-98.
There are examples of these types of pitchers all over the landscape of the game. Jacob DeGrom is probably the most famous example; a college shortstop with super-athletic traits and a long, projectable frame. Once he was on the mound full-time, his stuff exploded. Guys like Brandon Woodruff, Spencer Strider, Joe Ryan and Tarik Skubal have all seen significant gains in one way or another since being selected in the middle-rounds of their respective drafts. Top prospects lists are no different. Gavin Stone, Hunter Brown and Ken Waldichuk hold exceptional value to their organizations entering the 2023 season.
With that, let’s take a look at four college pitchers who presently project to go outside of the first couple rounds of the 2023 draft. These guys could obviously soar up boards this spring, but for the purpose of the exercise, we’ll use their current rank on the Prospects Live Top 300 board as a barometer.
Alonzo Tredwell, UCLA
In terms of fluidity and body control, pound-for-pound, there may not be a better “mover” in the 2023 draft than Tredwell. Listed at 6-foot-8, 230 pounds, Tredwell has is an imposing righty who really comes at hitter with steep angle. He was impressive for the Bruins in 2022, pitching 47 innings in relief, punching 62 tickets, walking just six batters. He’ll move into a full-time rotation role this spring and is a high-follow for Southern California scouts.
Tredwell was well-regarded coming out of Mater Dei High in 2021 but was slowed by Tommy John Surgery early in his prep career. He ultimately never got the runway to fully recover and show an uptick in stuff leading up to the 2021 draft. These days, Tredwell will sit 90-92 and touch 95 when he lets it eat. He possesses elite extension, allowing the fastball to play up at least a tick. He’s got a full arsenal of pitches, the changeup being the most formidable featuring above average arm-side fade. He throws a gyro slider that, given his steep angle and extension, does tunnel well. But commanding it well will be paramount as he doesn’t throw it very firm, and its movement profile isn’t dramatic.
It's hard to imagine Tredwell doesn’t get into pro ball start throwing with more intensity. He’s got solid movements patterns and very fluid actions throughout his entire operation. Strength training, a more intense throwing program, and preparing his body specifically for a pro season could do wonders for his stuff. There’s definitely more in that tank here. Given Tredwell appears to already be a top-of-the-scale strike-thrower, teams will be working from a solid foundation.
Ty Langenberg, Iowa
At 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, Langenberg has a premium frame with longer limbs with the ability to tack on another few pounds of physicality moving into his pro career. He’s coming off a particularly impressive 2022 where he threw 63 innings for the Hawkeyes, striking out 74 batters and allowing just 23 walks.
Langenberg also has a full repertoire of offerings. Last season he was fastball-heavy sitting 90-93. He mixed in a cutter and a slider, though they’d melt together at times. His changeup is comfortably his best offering with plus grades being doled out from just about everyone you talk to. This fall, Langenberg ratcheted things up a bit, touching 97 and resting in the 92-95 range over longer sessions. Continuing to develop sweep on the slider should be a priority. If he shows marked improvement on that pitch this spring, he could shoot up draft boards and could be a first-round dark horse.
Langenberg really possesses a lot of things scouts look for. He’s got a buttery, athletic delivery, and the intrinsic ability to really spin a baseball. He’s already got a 60-grade weapon that he can leverage in any count, as well as some traits that point toward a more effective breaking ball in the future. Given the longer limbs, higher waist, athleticism and arm speed, Langenberg should throw a bit harder as he gets into professional baseball and could profile as a mid-rotation starter if the trajectory remains true.
Kiefer Lord, Washington
A transfer from Carleton College, Lord will be one of the highest follows in the Pac-12 this season. He will likely hold down the Friday or Saturday job for the Huskies in 2023. Over eight starts in 2022, Lord produced a 1.65 ERA over 49 innings, striking out a whopping 81 batters and issuing just seven free passes. The Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference isn’t the Pac-12, but those numbers are eye-opening, nonetheless.
Lord checks a ton of boxes in scouting circles. He’s got a super-loose, whippy arm that is just now starting to show what it’s capable of. As a sophomore, Lord was more 89-92, touching a tick or two higher than that. This fall, however, Lord brushed 98 and 99 a couple times and appears poised to see his stuff move into the mid-90s this season. He’ll flash a solid average low-80s slider with good depth and bite, though it can hump a bit when he doesn’t stay through the pitch. Working to throw the breaking ball a little firmer will undoubtedly be a priority at the next level. Lord also throws a changeup, though it lags behind his primary two offerings at least in usage and consistency.
Lord may be one of the most polarizing players to watch throw this spring. The stuff he showed in the fall, combined with his thought-to-be strike-throwing ability painted the picture that of a second or third rounder. Whether he can hold that production and stuff over 50+ innings in the Pac-12 remains to be seen. Regardless of how he performs, the way the body moves and the whip in his right arm will have scouts flocking to Montlake.
BONUS: Case Matter, Washington
Matter doesn’t check the same boxes as Tredwell, Langenberg or Lord, but he does do a lot of things very, very well on the mound and he’ll be a name worth watching this season.
It’s been a rollercoaster go of it so far for Matter at Washington. The 6-foot-2-inch, 190-pounder has 44.2 innings under his belt for the Huskies. He’s walked 30 batters in that time, striking out 53 along the way. Matter is stingy on the mound and doesn’t allow many hits, but the free passes have hurt him.
Metrically, this kid checks a lot of boxes. He produces exceptional carry on his four-seam fastball and can rush it up to 96 at peak, though commanding the pitch has been an issue. He’s got a couple of average breaking balls, the curveball being the better of the two with solid depth and velocity.
Scouts love the way Matter moves. He’s got big intent and aggressiveness, but he keeps it controlled. The kid clearly has feel for pitching and a feel for his delivery. He exhibits a confidence in his ability to throw hard. Matter really tries to get a big load over his back side, hold it like hell and the rotate aggressively at foot plant. He’s still closed at when he lands, causing him to over-rotate at release. This, in turn, causes Matter to bow left and finish toward the left-handed batters dugout. This is a very good athlete with exceptional fastball quality. From this chair, If Matter works to get down the mound a bit earlier, easing off how deliberate he is in the loading phase, it could improve his strike-throwing ability. Given the athletic ability, Matter might not lose too much in the form of velocity. Also worth noting, I am not a pitching coach and these teaching tips should be taken with a grain of salt!