This offseason, I’ll be taking a look back at past Bowman releases. It’s more about the players and how they’re progressing in baseball within the hobby landscape, not an examination of how good or bad the product still is or can be – but that’s an easy measuring stick to summarize with.

I’m starting with 2018 Bowman Draft. It’s the farthest-back product that still has a significant number of prospects - previous releases only have a handful remaining. Even if you personally think there are no prospects with any hobby ceiling left (which is a fine opinion to have), many of these players have less than 500 major league at bats. This is to say, many of these players are still developing. The preps from this release are only 23-24, so for those who were drafted as projects with no polish, it’s still completely fine that they’re still prospects.

THE TOP OF THE CROP

Shane McClanahan & Logan Gilbert are the best proven pitchers in this product. It’s a shame that McClanahan’s future is in doubt following his second Tommy John surgery and he won’t be back until (likely) 2025, but he could still come back as the ace he was prior. Gilbert isn’t really an ace, but he’s as solid as they come – a hair better than a mid-rotation arm on a contending team is still pretty great. The hobby sees him as never becoming an ace, so his cards aren’t expensive, but stranger things have happened for players entering their age-27 season, as he will be in 2024.

Would you believe that Nico Hoerner a) has 11.4 bWAR b) that’s good for double any other hitter in this product? As a player who’s excelled at being a pesky out and shown a knack for stealing bases without elite speed, he’s very much a more valuable real life player than one for the Hobby - there’s not a lot that we can point to to say he deserves to be more. Still, he’s in a great collector’s market and is a linchpin in the Cubs’ lineup.

Grayson Rodriguez & Triston Casas are the clearly best of the 2023 rookies here and arguably the best two names in this product. Casas may only be a 1B but it doesn’t matter - there’s clearly enough power that it won’t be a limitation for the sake of the hobby, and he’s showing enough on-base ability to be a #3 or #4 hitter, meaning more counting stats, and an even larger collector’s market. That’ll play, especially in Boston. Grayson Rodriguez has been a Top 20 prospect for years, and finally started showing out with performance in the second half of the season this year. We’ll see if he can keep that going as he ramps up to a full workload next year if he truly hits his ace potential.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t include Jarred Kelenic here. He’s the one player in this checklist who hit mega-hyped prospect status well after release. That still holds some gravitas in the Hobby, and Kelenic is still only 24 so there’s definitely still time to grow. But I don’t think anyone still thinks he’ll be the perennial All-Star he was made out to be in 2019-20. He’s likely much closer to Kole Calhoun than Mike Trout.

SOLID MAJOR LEAGUERS

Nolan Gorman, since release, has been one of the best names in this product. He’s come through on the power portion of his promise with 41 HR in a little over a year’s worth of major league at bats, but the rest of his game needs work for the Cardinals to commit to him as their future 2B as they build back to being a contender. He’s not a good defender and doesn’t get on base quite enough to offset the >30 K% that’s been a persistent issue for years. I’ve talked Gorman down here, but he’s still one of the highest-ceiling players in this release. Any 2B with a very tangible multiple 30 HR-season potential will be interesting for the hobby.

Alec Bohm, Jonathan India, and Ryan Jeffers (emergently) fit this category. Bohm & India have always towed this line with little variance throughout their development – to put it bluntly, they’re boring. But boring doesn’t mean unproductive, and they’re both mainstays in their respective lineups. Jeffers is an outstanding offensive producer for the catcher position, weighted in the power that the hobby loves - he’s just not good enough defensively to play there full time. Smashing those things into just a 330 PA season led to a 3.0 WAR in 2023. There’s quite a bit of luck in that, but I’m mostly buying the production. The Twins have a lot of DH options but I’d love to see what he can do with a slightly bigger share of that pie. All this to say - to me he fits the exact same mold as India & Bohm for the hobby - boring but important to the team.

Brady Singer has established himself as a mid-rotation piece for a few years now but there’s nothing to indicate he’s anything close to interesting for the hobby at large. Josiah Gray is more interesting (and an All-Star!) but this was his first year doing it at this level - if he keeps it up there’s still quite a bit of hobby intrigue to be had. And then we have the cover boy for this release, #1 overall pick Casey Mize. It’s easy to forget him, as he’s only thrown 10 IP since 2021 - but it was expected considering his June 2022 Tommy John surgery. He’s thrown bullpen sessions as far back as August, so he should be fully cleared to slot back into wherever the Tigers see use for him. He should still be at least a mid-rotation arm, and with his pedigree, he’ll be given every chance to prove it.

OTHER MAJOR LEAGUERS

Bo Naylor (Noah on his cards in this set) is still a good hobby name. He’s not a prospect anymore, but also still has under 250 PA in the majors. What’s most interesting though is his last 103 PA of the season, where he slashed .306/.417/.647 with 7 HR. If this portends a 25+ HR, .270 BA season next year, that’ll just rival what’s expected of Adley Rutschman in his sophomore campaign. Interested in that, fellow collectors? Naylor is also two years younger than Adley, but at least a full grade lower defensively.

Jake McCarthy, Alek Thomas, Nick Madrigal, Parker Meadows, and Brice Turang have seen significant time in the majors but most of their value is tied to defense. These players, Thomas especially, have at times escaped that pigeon-holing, but while they may have long careers and briefly flash, they're never likely to be more than middling hobby names in the future. I’ll argue with myself about Turang by saying that this, his rookie year, is pretty much what’s always been expected of him and while there may be some development yet, I don’t think he’ll exceed expectations by much.

Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Ryan Weathers are fading assets with a lot of MLB innings. While they may continue to eat innings, I don’t think they’ll be quality and their collectibility is definitely waning. Kris Bubic fits this as well and additionally has a UCL reconstruction to contend with. Jonathan Stiever also slots in here as an injury-ruined pitcher who hasn't proven anything in the majors. I like Matthew Liberatore and I think he’s better than chunking into these names, but he certainly hasn’t proven that yet in the majors. He (and Weathers, to be fair) was a prep in 2018, so there’s maybe a little projection to be had yet.

Trevor Larnach and Kody Clemens have lesser expectations at this juncture but with power as a significant part of their game, could still have brief, intense periods of hobby interest forthcoming. Kyle Isbel (when not injured) and Matt Vierling were lineup mainstays this year, but it’s only because they’re persistently average - there’s never been any real projection that’s interesting for the hobby with them.

There are some role players and relievers in this set who aren’t prospects anymore such as Nick Sandlin, Joe Jacques, Thaddeus Ward, Alfonso Rivas, and Terrin Vavra who deserve mention but have never really been and don’t figure to be significant for the hobby.

PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANCE

Lawrence Butler continued his upward trend in AA/AAA this year and saw just a few enough at bats in Oakland to remain a prospect. While his performance in the majors wasn’t exceptional, I don’t think there’s any reason for pause in relation to his future. There’s always been a lack of translation from his raw power to game power, but he’s made it work with a balanced approach at the plate. He’s really shown no signs of being consistent yet in the majors, but if he ever gets there and taps into a hair more power – there’s a definite possibility that he could be the A’s All-Star rep.

Luken Baker had an even better year in the minors than Butler, slugging 33 HR with a 1.159 OPS. The issue is that he’ll be 27 before the 2024 season, 1B/DH only, and an absolute plodder on the basepaths, so his margin for error is much smaller. It means much more that he struggled in his debut.

Jordyn Adams has been more of an athlete than a ballplayer for the entirety of his tenure in the Angels system, but they deemed him ready for his debut this year. It’s more of a statement on the Angels system that he saw time in Anaheim, but it’s possible Adams defies expectations if given more run next year. Stranger things have happened for players with intangible skills like Adams.

Similarly and now in the Mets’ system, Jeremiah Jackson really deserves a modicum of hobby interest, as at best he could be a super-util. He slugged 23 HR and swiped 27 SB this year at AA while playing 6 different positions. He just needs to keep his K% down as he hits AAA next year, and a bench role could be his for the offing sometime next year.

Brennen Davis has fallen very far as a prospect since being derailed by injuries. His back injury especially figures to have long-term impact and has forced him to the corner OF positions. On the offensive side there’s not really an issue with hitting the ball hard, but rather it’s his approach. He’s regressed to a pull-heavy tendency, is quite a free swinger, and most telling - had only a 2.5 Barrel%. It’s almost like injuries have taken their toll on his development and Davis should be viewed as more of a mid-minors project, but he’s now been at AAA for parts of 3 years and fatigue has firmly set in. Does the Brennen Davis revival tour begin next year?

OTHER PROSPECTS

There are not a lot of hobby-friendly pitching prospects to be had remaining. Braxton Ashcraft had a great season returning from TJ and will look to fill into the back of the Pirates rotation sometime next year. But being on that team and being 25, he’s safe to ignore for the hobby. Also safe to ignore but having a nice season was Braydon Fisher. Converted to a multi-inning reliever after years on injury, Fisher struck out 90 in 65 innings this year and held hitters to a sub-.200 BA. At this point he’s got Rays’ Rule V pick written all over him.

There’s also several starters who have lost whatever shine they may have had – Ethan Hankins, Owen White, Cole Winn, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Justin Jarvis. It’s possible any and all of these end up as innings-eater-types, but there’s still risk in that assumption and they don’t figure to make that contribution in 2024.

Players with 20+ MiLB HR this year from this set were Devin Mann, Will Banfield, and Griffin Conine. Nick Dunn & Ezequiel Pagan fit a different mold but should get more than a handful of MLB at-bats eventually. The odds are all these players end up as tweeners, but even if they exceed expectations they’re safe to downplay in the hobby context. Other hitters who have debuted but remain prospects with little projection are Bryan Lavastida, Jonathan Ornelas, Michael Siani, Jordan Groshans, Travis Swaggerty, and Ford Proctor.

Other than that there’s still 25+ active players from this set with Bowman 1st’s at AA & AAA. They’re all either relievers or have major flaws in their game at age 23-26, so are complete hands-off for 90% of the hobby.

SUMMARY

This is not a good product today. Nobody from this class is a hobby superstar right now, and my opinion is that only Triston Casas & Grayson Rodriguez can still get there. There have only been three All-Star appearances to date from this entire set, and the murky-futured Shane McClanahan is two of them. There’s not a potential for much product growth either, as the remaining prospects figure to be role players. When I looking back today and see Bo Naylor as being a Top 5 name in the product, things haven’t gone great. When we look back at this set in 20 years, Nico Hoerner may be the only player with 30 career WAR.