2023 Topps Series 1 is the first official 2023 baseball product released and kicks off the Flagship cycle of products as well. 2022 Topps Update Series had a very strong checklist, and the baton gets passed from that latest Flagship product to what seems like at least an equivalently strong Flagship product. The depth in this checklist is likely even better than 2022 Topps Update Series.

Design

I’ll repeat some of what I said in This Week in Baseball Cards - The design is a throwback to Topps designs from 40 years ago (1983) and 60 years ago (1963). It’s a full white border with a player headshot included in the bottom section with the team logo, player name, team name, and position. It’s a good design, but like all Flagship designs, there have been some critics, especially with where the rookie card logo placement is. Also the parallels do not go for the full border treatment which was a strange choice. They look even more awkward on the horizontal cards.

The 35th anniversary throwback is the Topps 1988 design, which is really bland. Not something I am that excited about even though there is a bit of nostalgia for me as this was during the heart of my young collecting days.

Every base card has an image variation, called the Golden Mirror Image Variation and is denoted by having a gold back. That’s 330 image variations alone which is a lot more than we’ve ever seen in a Flagship product. It becomes even more of an excess if we still get the traditional short print and super short prints. They are not listed on pack odds, so as of publish, the speculation is that they have been replaced in favor of the Golden Mirror variations.

We also get all the various inserts which at the moment the rare “AKA” set looks to be the most interesting from a design and artistic standpoint. The similarly rare Heavy Lumber insert is printed on cherry wood - alternate materials like that always find a strong market. There is an ultra-rare Hidden Gems insert as well that has yet to pop up on eBay or social media prior to publish so we have no idea what it looks like, but given the rarity, we can hope that the card design and art delivers.

Finally, just like in 2022 Flagship, the unannounced insert Home Field Advantage makes an appearance. Adley getting one is a good decision - let’s see if they continue that with the bigger rookies also getting HFA cards. If you missed my Hobby in Year Review article for 2022, my favorite card of the year was a Home Field Advantage card.

Configurations

You will find two hobby configurations, regular Hobby and Hobby Jumbo. At the time of writing this, regular hobby boxes are in the $90 range while hobby jumbos are in the $165 range pre-sale. Last year Topps sold 2022 Series 1 Hobby boxes for $79.99 direct from their website. A regular Hobby will guarantee you one auto OR relic plus a silver pack (chrome 35th anniversary cards), while the Hobby Jumbos will guarantee you one auto AND two relics plus two silver packs. There will also be all of the standard retail formats with blaster boxes, mega boxes, jumbo packs, loose retails packs, etc.

There is also a First Edition that released Tuesday, February 14th, the day before the full product official release day of Wednesday, February 15th. Topps sold hobby boxes for $360 with a limit of

Additional Notes

*Cost per hit per format from Vintage Baseball Cards on* *Twitter* *(blasters = bad)*

Print Run - the initial print run calculations, based on the Hobby and Jumbo configurations looked to be a positive trend in that the print run might actually be less than 2022. And then retail started to show up on those odds made the print run outlook shift significantly. It looks like Topps is stuffing the retail formats as full of base and common inserts as possible. I’m not a fan of the approach as we really just need to see print runs overall come down rather than just funnel the print runs into the retail formats - the hobby is swimming in base which is a very bad thing.
Rip Party - I guess Topps has decided to turn out the lights, because this party is over. After three years, the “tradition” of a huge release day event where breakers gathered in a single location to rip millions of cards is done. Honestly, after the first year, the novelty wore off, and I’m not surprised nor sad that this was left behind.
Players that don’t have a base rookie card were not included in the Product Preview. They will be featured in the upcoming Product Previews when they do have a base rookie card. Players of note that have either an insert and/or an auto but no base rookie card in 2023 Topps Series 1 are:
- Corbin Carroll
- Josh Jung
- Francisco Alvarez
- DL Hall
- Drew Waters
- Max Meyer
- Esteury Ruiz

The Main Attraction

The Main Attraction in Flagship releases is the base rookie cards and all of their associated parallels. Collectors typically consider these cards to be a rookie’s True Rookie Card (TRC) and they hold a comparatively significant demand over most other rookie cards. Before we jump into the breakdown of the rookie checklist, a quick refresher on how I roughly think of my Tiers.
Tier One - Cream of the crop. Combination of high-end Hit and Power tools that won't end up as designated hitters. Power/Speed combo players. Elite SP1 pitchers (very rare). Potential for being perennial All-Stars and award winners.
Tier Two - Bats that may lack in a certain area such as top-end power, three true outcomes players, may be great real life/fantasy players, but not hobby-elite. High-end SP2 pitchers with additional positive factors such as team, arsenal, pedigree, etc.
Tier Three - May have some hobby interest due to a single factor such as prospect pedigree, team interest, general hobby hype, an interesting carrying tool, etc.
Tier None - The likelihood of widespread short-term hobby interest, and most likely long term as well, is close to none. Plenty of pitchers, catchers, role players, hit tool only bats, defense first players, etc. to be found here. Hobby lottery tickets where the odds are stacked against you.
All teams listed in the Main Attraction section below are the teams shown on the card and not necessarily the team that they are currently on due to trades, free agency, etc.

Tier 1

Michael Harris II - Braves - NL Rookie of the year that made a huge impact for the 101-win Braves in 2022. You name it, Harris did it during his rookie campaign. Power, speed, hit, defense, attitude, energy, style. It was all there.

He only walked 5% of the time with the big league squad, which is not great. He’s usually more of a league average guy living in the 8%-9% range, and in theory should be able to regress close to that in the future. His K rate was 24%, which is fine, but you also hope it can trend towards more league average rates around 22%. He didn’t hit lefties that well with a .226 batting average against.

All of this is trying to find the holes in his performance. He had a stellar 2022 and would have no problem carrying this product all by himself if he had to. An easy Tier 1 decision and the most desirable rookie in 2023 Series 1.

Gunnar Henderson - Orioles - Consensus top tier prospect and regularly found at the top spot of prospect lists this off-season. Had a late season call-up in August in which he held his own, even if it wasn’t eye-opening stats.

I vividly remember watching 2019 Bowman Draft breaks and seeing breakers and Orioles team spot owners constantly disappointed with hitting Gunnar Henderson cards instead of Adley Rutschman cards. While I’m sure there are some who still would have preferred to hit the Adleys, a lot of them are likely a lot happier than they were back in 2019.

There’s a ton to like about Gunnar - plus hit and power tools with elite exit velocity. He can steal bases and should be getting a minimum of double digits even though he only swiped one bag 34 major league games in 2022. His future home is third base but has the ability to play shortstop or second base as needed.

The negatives are pretty standard for young hitters. As a left hander, he struggles against same-handed pitching with a .208 batting average against. He also struggles against the breaking and soft stuff. He crushed four seamers with a .371 batting average while hitting .231 against curves, .200 against changeups, and .105 against sliders.

While there are nits to pick, Gunnar has such a strong tool set that he shouldn’t have any problems in being a great player hitting for high average and 30+ home runs with multiple All-Star games in his future. Another easy Tier 1 ranking decision.

Adley Rutschman - Orioles - The best catching prospect of this generation, Adley gives me a lot of Buster Posey vibes. The sky's the limit for Adley. However, just like Posey, playing the catcher position puts him in the cross-hairs for increased injury risk and just general wear and tear.

In his entire professional career, beginning in 2019, Adley has never had a walk rate under 11% or a strikeout rate above 19%. That isn’t just on a cumulative yearly basis, that is for each and every stop throughout the minors or majors, whether that was 3 games or 100 games. That is absolutely elite.

On the negative side, Adley is a switch hitter and his results against lefties (as a right handed batter) are definitely on the weaker side of the coin. He hit just .174 with one home run in his 115 MLB plate appearances against lefties in 2022 while he hit .280 with 12 home runs in his 355 MLB plate appearances against righties. And this is a similar story we’ve seen throughout his minor league career. At some point he may want to see if giving up switch hitting is the way to go. On the other hand, since it’s the weaker side of the platoon and he’s primarily a catcher, it’s a built in rest day excuse.

He’s easily a Tier 1 player in baseball, fantasy, and the hobby. He comes across as a humble and personable guy as well as a hard worker and leader. He should have no problem regularly producing the .280 - .300 with 20 home runs statlines. I’ll say it again - besides the switch hitting, Adley reminds me very strongly of Buster Posey. He’s a Tier 1 player easily, although he’s not at the tippy top of Tier 1 because of that catcher tax and all the challenges that come with playing that position.

Miguel Vargas - Dodgers - Vargas had a brief 18 game taste at the MLB level in 2022 and hopefully wins the starting second or third base job for the Dodgers in Spring Training so we can get a full season of playing time at the MLB level for him.

I love Vargas’ approach at the plate and that is enough to overcome some of his defensive home concerns and lack of stolen bases. He doesn’t have any real worries with pitching hand splits and hits most everything well. Cutters and changeups are both sub-.240 batting averages, but other than that, he’s pretty much hitting .300 or better against.

Vargas just does everything well with a bat in his hand and could potentially be that .280+ hitter with 25 - 30 home runs while racking up the counting stats on a perennially competitive Dodgers team. The likelihood that he gets above that 25 - 30 home runs threshold is not something I would bet on, but the floor is easily 20 home runs with full playing time. So while he could be a great player, he may not quite get that Tier 1 status in some corners of the hobby, similar to a player like Xander Bogaerts. Assuming the defensive questions don’t kill his playing time, Vargas has a really high floor, even if he doesn’t have the highest of ceilings like other Tier 1 players.

Vinnie Pasquantino - Royals - The Italian Breakfast is a great guy. If you haven’t seen his interview with Jared Perkins and Dr. Caleb Mezzy, the hosts of Beyond Baseball, do yourself a favor and go watch it now.

Pasquantino has one of the best plate approaches in baseball, regularly putting up plus walk rates and elite strikeout rates. He’ll walk as much if not more than he strikes out which is almost Pujolesian. He should regularly hit .300 or better given that plate approach and has the power to get to 20 home runs or better as well, even while hitting in a pitcher’s park. He hits righties and lefties equally as well, and about the only pitch where he showed mild struggles was the changeup (.191 average against). By the way, throwing Pasquantino a cutter is a bad idea - he hit .588 against them at the MLB level in 2022.

He’s not going to steal much if at all, and his defense is good enough for first base, but does carry some DH risk. The personality and extremely high offensive floor due to his advanced plate skills give me the confidence to have Pasquantino in the middle of my Tier 1.

Triston Casas - Red Sox - It seemed like Casas was trending towards a monster power bat in his first full minor league season with 20 home runs in 2019. He hasn’t reached that cumulative mark since and it looks to be mostly due to the hit and patient approach mindset he’s taken the past few years. He regularly puts up double plus upper teens walk rates and keeps his strikeouts at 21% or less with the exception of the small sample size he had at the majors in 2022.

I’ve seen Casas hit massive bombs, so the power is truly there. The question is how much we see it. If he can find that balance between passivity and attacking pitches he can damage, we’re easily looking at 30 - 40 home run power. If he is what he is, then he deserves a Tier 2 ranking at best and my Tier 1 ranking will be way too optimistic.

Brett Baty - Mets - Future long-term third baseman of one of the most collectable teams in baseball. First round MLB Draft pick in 2019 brings a significant amount of prospect pedigree. Baty has plus hit and power tools along with a strong arm that should allow him to stick at third.

One of the major complaints has been that he hit the ball into the ground too much in the past, but he’s steadily been working on this to unlock his raw power. In 89 games at Double-A in 2022, he hit 19 home runs and had a completely acceptable 42.6% groundball rate. In small samples at Triple-A and the MLB, it was much higher, but I am choosing to throw those out given that it was just 17 games.

If the positive swing approach trend continues towards more impact balls hit in the air, he’s a Tier 1 player, especially on a collectable team like the Mets. If he regresses to hitting way too many ground balls, he’s Yandy Diaz and the free-fall down the tiers commences. For now, I’m choosing to believe the swing changes are sustainable.

Tier 2

Vaughn Grissom - Braves - Another young player that came up and impressed for the Braves in 2022. The young talent they’ve graduated to their MLB roster over the last 5 years is seriously impressive.

Grissom was always seen as a plus hit tool player with just average in-game power. In 2022, as he’s added weight and strength, the raw power has started turning into in-game power. The speed is there to be a 20+ stolen base player and the main remaining question is where does he play on the field. With third base and second base looking to be locked up long term in Atlanta, shortstop and the outfield look like the main destinations for Grissom. Since Dansby is gone and the Braves did nothing to backfill, it looks like Grissom is going to be give the primary opportunity to seize the job. Honestly taking a deeper dive into the numbers and I don’t have any major complaints with Grissom. Everything is basically around league average or better. Some of his exit velocity numbers were low, he could walk a little bit more, his BABIP was high even if he typically runs high BABIP’s. It’s mostly picking nits - if Grissom can hold his own at shortstop, his value is really strong defensively. Add in a .280+ hitter with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases on a collectable team and you are easily looking at a Tier 2 player with upward momentum into the Tier 1 conversation.

Riley Greene - Tigers - 22 year-old top 10 prospect that had a rough first season in the majors given his final stat line. Part of that jump into top 10 prospect consideration in the past off-season was that Greene broke out in the power department, hitting 24 home runs across Double-A and Triple-A in 2021. For whatever reason, we saw very little of that power in his rookie season.

With a bit of perspective, there is still plenty of potential for a return to that Tier 1 status. In his first 93 MLB games, he wasn’t able to bring his above average, double digit walk rates from the minors to balance out his 29% strikeout rate. As said above, he didn’t find his power stroke nor his double digit steals in 2022. Greene has that reverse platoon split thing where he regularly hit left handers better than right handers (he’s a left handed batter). That isn’t great since the majority of his opportunities are against right handers.

Given his youth, I’m still envisioning a really good player in the future, but I also don’t know if he’ll get to that Tier 1 territory. If he can regain that power stroke and it doesn’t negatively impact his plate approach, then I would reconsider that thought. Ultimately, Greene may just be a really good all around player, but not provide anything plus in any category.

Nolan Gorman - Cardinals - Gorman has shown massive power, but he’s struggled to get to it. Couple that with his lack of a defensive home in a stacked Cardinals offense and he’s been minimized to a part time role for the short term. Gorman usually needs to get settled in at a new level before he starts to lock in, and a part time role is a detriment to that play style. On a second division team, Gorman would likely receive full-time run to work into his comfort zone. Until he can force the Cardinals hand either through performance or as a trade option, I don’t have the highest hopes for Gorman in the short term. He needs the reps and a team that can be patient in giving him those regular at bats.

The prospect and draft pedigree coupled with the potential to still be a 30+ home run bat with league average hitting or better keeps him in Tier 2.

Hunter Brown - Astros - The 2019 5th round pick out of Division II Wayne State University has made huge strides the past two years, culminating in a late season call-up to the big league squad.

Currently features a three pitch arsenal. The four seam fastball sits mid 90’s and can touch triple digits - I mostly saw it at 96-97 and being thrown effectively up in the zone. He will tunnel a north-south plus curveball with that fastball, getting a huge amount of vertical movement and called strikes as it freezes hitters. His third pitch, a slider, sits in the low 90’s and has a bit of a cutter look to it. There is a changeup, but it’s rarely used and not effective at the moment.

Brown has big time starting pitcher potential and as his command keeps improving, the more it looks like he could potentially be an SP2 given the effectiveness of his arsenal. Tier 2 may be his ceiling, so there is a bit of buyer beware given that he only has 20 MLB innings at this point. However, if I’m buying a pitcher in this product, it’s Hunter Brown by a mile.

Gabriel Moreno - Blue Jays* - Was traded to the Diamondbacks along with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. for Daulton Varsho in the off-season. Moreno had made it all the way up to a top 10 prospect overall in 2022 on the strength of his double plus hit tool but was part of a logjam at the catcher position in Toronto with Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen, and Reese McGuire.

Moreno, as alluded to above, is a contact machine. In any meaningful sample size, he’s never had a strikeout rate above 20% and hit .315 in Triple-A and .319 in the bigs in 2022. He should be able to stick behind the dish and has a plus arm with really good pop times, better than his new counterpart in Arizona in Carson Kelly. On the other hand, Kelly likely has the upper hand in all of the other departments of work behind the dish, so I don’t see Moreno just walking in the door and taking the majority of the backstop reps in Arizona. A few other notes of caution with Moreno - like the majority of catchers, he’s not going to be stealing many if any bases. While Moreno probably has the raw power to hit 20+ homers, his plate approach is much more contact oriented. There may be low double digit home runs just because he puts the bat to the ball so much and he kills balls in the bottom half of the zone.

Moreno profiles as a .300+ hitter with 10-15 home runs but is held back due to no speed, not enough in-game power, and the catcher tax. He’s a really good player for real baseball and fantasy baseball, but Tier 2 is the ceiling for Moreno in the hobby.

Oswald Peraza - Yankees - If Peraza was on a bottom tier collectable team like, for example, the A’s, he’s a Tier 3 player. The main standout tools for Peraza are his speed on the base paths and his ability to easily stick at shortstop. His plate approach has shifted towards putting the ball in the air more than spraying to all fields which has left him particularly susceptible to breaking away, especially sliders. If you take a look at his spray chart, it is heavily pull-side focused. His walk rates float between below average and average while his strikeout rates go between plus and average. Ignoring the small sample size of 18 games at the MLB level, his 2022 rates at Triple-A both trended towards that average benchmark. He did pop 19 home runs in those 99 Triple-A games, by far the most he’s had at a single stop in his career. Part of this 2022 shift was probably intentional while another part of it was likely due to being challenged by more advanced pitching.

The jury is still out on Peraza for me. Is he a hit over power player, like we saw prior to 2022? Or is he going to continue the 2022 trend of being a power over hit player? Either way, there is probably something for collectors to hang their hats on, and when you add in the Yankee bump, it gets him into the bottom of Tier 2. I still have concerns that Peraza will be exploited by MLB pitching given that his hit tool may not be quite what we were expecting. Definitely a player to watch closely in 2023 to see if it’s time to jump on or off the bandwagon.

Jonathan Aranda - Rays - Aranda is a two-tool player, but they are the most important tools when it comes to the hobby for hitters - hit and power. Aranda is limited defensively and will not be a threat on the base paths. What he will do is threaten to hit .300+ and hit 20+ home runs. His 32 game debut at the MLB level didn’t continue that offensive trend we had seen from Aranda as he worked his way up through the minors, but it was too small of a sample to draw any conclusions from.

Tier 2 is Aranda’s ceiling given his deficiencies outside of the hit and power tools, but his feel for contact, plus plate approach, and ability to spread the ball all over the field is hard to ignore.

Cade Cavalli - Nationals - Built like a workhorse starting pitcher at 6’4” and 230 pounds. The 2020 first round pick out of the University of Oklahoma led the minor leagues in strike outs in 2021 as he sailed through High-A and Double-A before getting touched up in his final stop at Triple-A. Returning to Triple-A in 2022 to start the season, Cavalli’s strike rate dipped but he was able to get good improvements on his walk rates, one of the few concerns in his game.

Has a four pitch arsenal headlined by an elite mid-to-high 90’s fastball with big spin. His curveball, slider, and changeup all flash plus, especially when Cavalli is keeping the fastball up in the zone to set those pitches up.

Cavalli had his debut in late August and then was shut down with shoulder discomfort. In some circumstances, this would bring a bit of concern, but in this specific case, inside sources confirmed that the Nationals were being excessively cautious with one of their best young pitchers. Cavalli is a future SP2 and should be a big part of whatever the future looks like in Washington D.C.

Tier 3

Oscar Gonzalez - Guardians - Gonzalez has been a fringe prospect with plus power held back by an overly aggressive plate approach. He had a surprising debut season emphasized by some big playoff hits. Given that, I would not be shocked if the hobby latches on in the short term and drives his card prices up a lot higher than they deserve to be long term.

Ignoring super small samples, Gonzalez typically puts up walk rates in the 3% - 5% range. This usually only works when the contact skills are so great, you don’t need to take a ton of walks. When it’s a big power rather than elite contact profile, that leads to a lot of sustainability concerns. The big power is there - in 2021 between Double-A and Triple-A, Gonzalez hit 31 home runs combined. In 2022 between Triple-A and MLB, he hit 20 home runs. I will say that his strikeout rate is never egregious, and it was only 19.6% in his 91 games at the MLB level in 2022. That low strikeout rate tends to lead to a decent batting average for Gonzalez, who hit .296 in 2022. He hits the ball on the ground a lot more than I like to see at 55%.

I can dig into even more numbers on Gonzalez, and ultimately it is maddeningly inconsistent. There is no through line that tells a simple narrative. Just like human beings in general, Gonzalez profile is a contrast in conflicting information that makes it difficult to peg where he goes from here. I am going to put him at the top of Tier 3 and sit on the sidelines until I get a much better feel for his future outlook.

Christopher Morel - Cubs - Morel has a Tier 1 personality and is an athletic talent with the glove on his hand. On the offensive side, he’s a got some of that power/speed element to his game, but it’s not enough to overcome the hit tool concerns.

Morel’s walk rates live in that average to above average range with a just above league average of 8.9% in his 113 MLB debut season sample. Unfortunately the strikeout rate was rough at 32.2%. If you’re not clubbing 25+ home runs to go with that strikeout rate, it makes it real hard to justify that rate. In Morel’s case, he hit 16 home runs in those 113 games. He chipped in 10 steals during that time as well.

Morel is a versatile player with a great personality. He started off hot when he debuted in May, but by the time July came around, he tailed off pretty bad. That is often the hallmark of the league making adjustments to the rookies and the rookies not figuring out how to adjust back. Until we see Morel get the strikeout rate back under control, he’s trending towards more of a utility player/second division regular. If he can get close to league average with it (something we haven’t seen from him since 2019), I can see him popping 20 - 25 home runs along with 15 - 20 steals while hitting .260 - .280. That would bump him into Tier 2. For now, he’s going to get ranked in the top half of Tier 3.

Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals - Acquired by the Cardinals for Randy Arozarena back in 2020, the shine has significantly come off the former 1st round prep left-hander. What once looked like a future SP2 now looks to be more of a back-end to mid rotation starter at best.

He has a four pitch arsenal. An ineffective fastball in the low-90’s, a couple of high spinning breakers (curveball and slider), and an average mid-80’s changeup. Even with the high spin breakers potentially being plus pitches, they’re brought down by the ineffectiveness of his fastball.

Prospect pedigree and former first round pick buy him some hobby juice, but the stuff has failed to impress and he is trending negatively down the Tiers. For now, he’ll get some benefit of the doubt with a Tier 3 ranking, but it’s a ranking that has an arrow pointing down.

Shea Langeliers - Athletics - Traded to the A’s prior to the 2022 season along with Cristian Pache, Joey Estes, and Ryan Cusick for Matt Olson.

Langeliers is a future starting catcher that has all the defensive tools to excel behind the dish. He’s a power over hit offensive profile that will fall into periods of swing and miss against advanced pitching. While his 2022 Triple-A results show what we hope Langeliers could be in the future, the 2022 MLB results show the downside of his profile. In 92 Triple-A games, he slashed .283/.366/.510, hit 19 home runs, and put together strong rates (10.7% walk rate, 21.9% strikeout rate). In 40 MLB games, he slashed .214/.261/.430, hit 6 home runs, and had abysmal rates (5.9% walk rate, 34.6% strikeout rate).

The future profile most likely lands in the middle of those numbers - a .240 hitter with 20-25 home run power. Given the catcher tax, that’s a Tier 3 player. If he hits those optimistic Triple-A numbers in the MLB, he’s a Tier 2 player. If he continues to repeate his debut MLB numbers (which I doubt), he will land in Tier None.

Kyle Stowers - Orioles - Stowers was known as a big time power hitting outfielder that will strike out a LOT. And then in 2022 at Triple-A, he flattened out his swing to better handle high heat and cut his strikeout rate almost from over 30% in 2021 to just under 26%. In his 34 MLB games in 2022, it did creep right back up to just under 30%. The walk rate is always above average to plus, hovering in that 11% - 13% range typically.

So it really all boils down to how much Stowers can stay in the game. There is easily 30 home run power here, but can he actually maintain a 25% strikeout or lower against MLB pitching. As a corner-only outfielder that doesn’t steal many if any bases, he needs to hit just enough to hit those home run totals. He’s a high ceiling, risky power bat that I’ll currently rank in Tier 3. I doubt he stays here - if he can hit enough, 30+ home run power should be in Tier 2. If he can’t, he’s a Quad-A slugger living in Tier None.

Michael Massey - Royals - I discussed Massey with Prospects Live Scouting Director Jake Kerns sometime early in the 2022 season asking why some people were so into Massey. Like me, he didn’t quite get the buzz, but he did say that at best, Massey could be a similar player to at-the-time Royals second baseman Whit Merrifield. While from a baseball and fantasy perspective, that’s a really great outcome, in the hobby, that doesn’t actually provide much more than Tier 3 value.

I’ll stick Massey in Tier 3 given that comp, but he’s going to need to regress towards those minor league numbers of a .280+ hitter with double digit home runs and steals with close to a 10% walk, to maintain that rank.

Nick Pratto - Royals - Pratto absolutely crushed in 2021 in his first taste of both Double-A and Triple-A, shooting him up rankings everywhere. Combined across the two levels, he hit 36 home runs with plus walk rates.
An aggressive approach will always lead to a high strikeout rate, but the 2021 results gave a lot of hope that he could succeed despite a 30% strikeout rate. 2022 was a different story as his strikeout rate crept above 30% and advanced MLB pitching ate him up in his 49 game debut sample. In that debut, he had over a 36% strikeout rate and hit below the Mendoza line. Contrasting that with fellow Royals first base rookie Vinnie Pasquantino’s success and it makes it that much more challenging for people to buy into Pratto’s cards.

There’s still a lot of potential for a 30 home run bat, but it may land in Joey Gallo territory. That puts him in Tier 3 pretty easily. If the strikeout rates can consistently get under 30% while maintaining that home run impact, there is a potential for a Tier 2 bat. But that is a big if right now.

Brayan Bello - Red Sox - One of the buzzier names coming out of Spring Training last year, Bello showed a lot of promise. That was driven by a high-90’s fastball along with a changeup and slider that both flash plus. The approach he has limited hard contact, got a lot of ground balls, and a decent amount of strikeouts. On the flip side, command has been a concern with Bello and it was no different in 2022. He gave up a lot of free passes and ended up with a 1.78 WHIP in just over 57 MLB innings. A lot to dream on with Bello, but also not enough at present to push him past an SP3 profile. If he finds the command with any consistency, then we are looking at an SP2 without question and a Tier 2 pitcher. If he doesn’t find it, he could easily be pushed into a bullpen role and possibly into Tier None.

JJ Bleday - Marlins* - Within the last few days, Bleday was traded to the Athletics for A.J. Puk. The Marlins again failed to take a power bat and unlock the hit tool. Bleday has shown flashes, but he’s never been able to consistently hit since being taken in the first round out of Vanderbilt. The power tool along with the draft and prospect pedigree keep him in Tier 3, but I was really tempted to push him into Tier None given how down the arrow has been pointing with Bleday for a while now.

Liover Peguero - Pirates - Speed and defense are Peguero’s calling cards. At the very least it gives him an MLB level floor. The offensive approach will need to improve if he is going to be anything more than a bottom of the order hitter. If you look at his top level stats, everything looks solid. But if you look deeper, his approach is more of a spray hitter without putting much oomph into the ball.

Basically, don’t let the double digit homers the last two years in the minors, 14 in 2021 and 10 in 2022, fool you into thinking that there could be that or more at the MLB level. Sure, he can get a few grooved pitches and take them yard, but those numbers come from High-A and Double-A. He’s yet to play a game in Triple-A against more advanced pitching and his one game debut happened as a COVID replacement for Tucupita Marcano and was more a function of proximity to Pittsburgh rather than being ready for the show.

I’ll give Peguero a Tier 3 ranking, but to be honest, it’s not one I am confident can go higher. This is definitely more of a floor ranking than a ceiling ranking. Peguero should find an everyday MLB job at some point with enough speed on the bases to cause some notice and that does hold some value.

Ezequiel Duran - Rangers - Traded to the Rangers along with Josh H. Smith (more on him later) from the Yankees for Joey Gallo. Duran is a second base only power over hit player.

His walk rates and strikeout rates show his aggressive swing for the fences approach as he they are rarely even at average levels. Across three levels in 2022, he hit 21 home runs and put up 19 the year before across two levels. He won’t run a ton, but he can get sto low double digit steals.

Duran is still young at just 23 years old and getting his first taste of Double-A, Triple-A, and the Majors all in 2022. With some plate approach refinement, he could become a much stronger potential for reaching that future everyday first division type of player. His youth and 20/10 offensive potential are going to have me slide him into the bottom half of Tier 3.

Nolan Jones - Guardians* - Traded by the Guardians to the Rockies for a middling hit-tool prospect in Juan Brito. The shine has definitely come off the prospect status of Jones as he was regularly considered one of if not the top Guardians prospects in the 2019 - 2021 time frame.

Jones is a power over hit player that typically is really patient at the plate. This leads to plus walk rates but can put him in situations where he strikes out more than he should. And that makes it difficult to regularly engage that plus power.

Now that Jones is in Colorado, there will be a bit of renewed hype, especially in the fantasy baseball community. I will slot him into Tier 3 as a power bat with some past name recognition but louder and louder questions are being asked wondering if he will be anything more than an average player.

Iván Herrera - Cardinals - Herrera popped on everyone’s radar in 2021 when he went from hitting 9 home runs in 2019 to nearly doubling that with 17 home runs at Double-A in 2021. In 2022, that regressed back down to just 6 home runs in 65 Triple-A games (and none in his 11 MLB games). Even so, I really like his patient approach exhibited by an almost 14% walk rate and a sub-19% strikeout rate.

He has the skills to stick behind the plate if his defensive development continues to trend in a positive direction. Like most catchers, he’s not a base stealer and you would be lucky to get more than five in a season.

Prior to the Willson Contreras signing, Herrera was often in the discussion of the future Yadi replacement, even if it wasn’t quite realistic. With his plus plate approach, potential future power, and likelihood he can stick behind the dish as a primary backstop (either in St. Louis or elsewhere with Contreras blocking him), I’ll slide Herrera into the bottom half of Tier 3.

Korey Lee - Astros - The 2019 first rounder has the arm to stick behind the plate, but he’s not the best receiver. The tool that pushes him into Tier 3 is the 30 home run raw power, but his aggressiveness at the plate and lack of contact make it a challenge to get to it in game.

Power is about the only thing that keeps him in Tier 3, but he could easily fade into that backup catcher role and he’ll drop into Tier None. With Yainer Diaz now looking like the more likely option for the future primary catcher in Houston, that drop into Tier None may come sooner rather than later.

Darick Hall - Phillies - Hall is a power bat first base/DH profile with a fringe hit tool. The lefty slugger does have platoon split concerns, but at worst he’ll end up on the strong side of a platoon. The main reason he is in this tier is that he could get 30 home runs on a strong Phillies team if he has a full time job. The risk that he’s a Quad A slugger is high, but I’ll be a bit optimistic with him in the bottom half of Tier 3. It’s really hard not to give him credit when he hit 37 home runs combined between Triple-A and MLB in 2022.

Tier None

Josh H. Smith - Rangers - Not to be confused with baseball players Josh A. Smith or Josh D. Smith or Josh XYZ. Smith (two of these three are real). Seriously, if your last name is Smith and you have a child, you have a free pass to name them something completely off the wall, like North, True, Psalm, Saint, Chicago, Dream, Reign, or Stormi. Not that anyone in their right mind would name a child that, but just saying.

This Josh was a former second round pick of the Yankees and was traded to the Rangers at the 2021 trade deadline with Ezequiel Duran for Joey Gallo. His strongest qualities are his plus plate approach and ability to play multiple positions on defense. Beyond that, there isn’t much to get excited about. He’s a 10 home run/10 steals type of player that fits mostly as a utility player on a roster rather than a starter. A good player from a baseball perspective, but a Tier None profile for the hobby.

Lenyn Sosa - White Sox - Sosa was a bit of a surprise call up in 2022 as he started the year in Double-A and had as of then not shown any intriguing offensive or defensive skills. In 2022 there was a lot of positive development as he used more of his body to drive the ball (24 home runs across the minors and majors), dropped his strikeout rate significantly below 20%, and brought his walk rate up into approaching league average territory at 7%. Defensively he’s spent most of his time split between second and shortstop with a bit of third base thrown in there, but his best spot is second base.

While Sosa is trending upwards in his development, for the moment he still profiles as a utility player or bottom of the order second baseman on a second division team. However, if he can continue this upward trend, there is potential for more. I’m keeping him in Tier None given the present utility player role, but he’s someone to potentially watch as a level jumper.

Kody Clemens - Tigers* - The son of Roger Clemens, Kody was traded to the Phillies with Gregory Soto this past January.

In 2021 he made big strides in the power department with 18 homers while keeping his strikeout rate in the 22% range. 2022 saw a bit of regression with his strikeout rate climbing again (26% - 27%) even if he still hit 18 home runs across Triple-A and the majors. The hit tool ultimately will determine if Clemens is just a utility player or an everyday regular that can get to 20+ home runs. Clemens is on that borderline of a Tier 3 and Tier None player.

In the short term, with fresh rookie cards, he will get some more than deserved interest due to his baseball-famous last name. However, the profile is more along the lines of a Tier None player, which is where I’ll have him until we see he can get that everyday role.

Jeter Downs - Red Sox* - 32nd overall pick in the 2017 MLB Draft to one of the main prospects (along with Josiah Gray) plus Homer Bailey traded to the Dodgers after the 2018 season for Matt Kemp, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, and Kyle Farmer to being traded to the Red Sox along with Alex Verdugo and Connor Wong for Mookie Betts and David Price to being DFA’d by the Red Sox after they signed Masataka Yoshida and claimed by the Nationals. That is quite the journey and loss of hype for Downs.

Downs has sold out for power and the strikeout rate is paying for it in the 30% range. In his 41 major league plate appearances, he struck out 21 times for a super small sample K rate of 51%.

A year ago we were probably discussing Downs in Tier 3 given the name recognition and prospect pedigree. At this point, after struggling against advanced pitching and getting waived, it feels like the jury is no longer out and is ready to render a verdict that he isn’t anything more than a second division regular at best. If he ends up significantly changing his swing and approach, there may be an opportunity to reconsider, especially since he’s only 24 years old. For now, he’s fallen into Tier None territory.

Caleb Kilian - Cubs - A somewhat under the radar draft pick in the 8th round of the 2019 draft by the Giants, Kilian was a big time riser after dominating the first half of the 2021 minor league season for the Giants High-A and Double-A squads. He was then traded, along with Alexander Canario, to the Cubs for Kris Bryant.

Since the trade, Kilian’s surface numbers haven’t looked great. Most notably, in his 106 Triple-A innings in 2022, his walk rate soared to over 12%. His deep arsenal has evolved and this may be part of the command issues that have seen his stock fall a bit back to earth.

A year ago, Kilian was easily in the Tier 3 conversation as a potential mid-rotation starter. Fast forward a year and Kilian looks more like a backend pitcher with unexpected bullpen risk. I’ll slot him into the top of Tier None and keep a close eye on his command in 2023 to see if he can bump back up into Tier 3.

Graham Ashcraft - Reds - Ashcraft got 105 innings in his debut season and it was, as a baseball and hobby buddy likes to say, cromulent. Given the lack of starting pitching in Cincinnati for 2023, even his backend starter profile is going to land him as an SP3 in their rotation.

Ashcraft throws two versions of an upper 90’s fastball with a cutter and a sinker. Both can flash, but they’re both average pitches at the moment. His mid-80’s slider is his best pitch and can get some swing and miss. The strikeout rates are paltry for Ashcraft but the walk rates were better than average. He’s mostly looking to induce ground balls, which he’s done pretty well with.

Unfortunately playing in Great American Smallpark, not striking out many hitters, and not having a big league defense behind him leads to a multitude of base runners and poor results. A back-end pitcher, regardless of his rotation spot, pitching for a bad team and susceptible to poor results, is going to be a Tier None player without fail.

Jerar Encarnacion - Marlins - Encarnacion has big boy power that is challenged in game with his fringe hit tool. As we regularly see, that’s not a combination that succeeds regularly, and pretty much not at all in the Miami org.

He can play both outfield corners as well as first base - that flexibility gives him a chance to find a second division role, but more than likely he’s another one that lands in that Quad-A slugger bucket.

A few years ago you could hope that he would find that positive hit tool development, but the Marlins are not the organization that looks to have figured out how to do that. Time is quickly running out on Encarnacion to be MLB or hobby relevant.

David Villar - Giants - As a Giants fan, I had never heard of David Villar prior to 2021. I suppose the 2018 MLB draft was mostly just Joey Bart and then a bunch of head scratching pitchers in my world view back then. I mean, I’m not the only one as Villar has never had a prospect card from any manufacturer, so even card manufacturers who are looking for prospect filler didn’t see him as anything more than just a guy.

In his first pass at Double-A, Villar popped 20 home runs in the 2021 season while cutting his strikeout rate down from 30% to 25% and upping his walk rate to 10%. In 2022 at Triple-A he maintained the strikeout rate while getting to double plus territory with his walk rates at 15%. Unfortunately in his 52 game debut sample in 2022 at the MLB level, his strikeout rate jumped back into the danger zone at 32% while his walk rate slipped back towards a more above average 10%. A fine bench corner infield utility type, Villar will provide some pop and walks. There’s just not enough impact to see him getting to the level of hobby interest that even a Tier 3 bat has.

Cal Mitchell - Pirates - Mitchell has the look of a strong side platoon outfielder on a second division team. The 2017 second round prep bat doesn’t do anything special, but there is a bit of power tool to dream on. His 2022 debut was just 69 games (nice!) which didn’t paint the full picture of how much he can eliminate those platoon concerns or do anything better than league average. At the moment, he looks like just that - league average. A good result for the Pirates, but not one for the hobby. And in the short term, he’s blocked by McCutchen and, to a lesser degree but more longer term blockage, Jack Suwinski.

So far his claim to fame, and I use that term loosely, is breaking up Miles Mikolas’ no-hitter with one out to go in 2022. I assume there exists some Miles Mikolas hater out there for some unknown reason and who out of nowhere became a Cal Mitchell super collector as if he’s a Tier 1 player. For me, I need to see a step forward with the offensive skill set before I push him out of Tier None.

Steele Walker - Giants* - Originally drafted by the White Sox in the second round of 2018. Walker was then traded to the Rangers after the 2019 season for Nomar Mazzara. What was a 60 grade name suddenly became an 80 grade name as you could now refer to him as “Steele Walker, Texas Ranger”. If you said to someone who never watched the show that that was Chuck Norris’ character’s name in the show, no one would have blinked an eye.

Walker was called up for a brief five games with the Rangers in June before being sent back down and was eventually designated for assignment in August when the Giants claimed him. In the off-season, the Giants flipped him to the Tigers for cash. While his base rookie card is in a Giants uniform, his auto is in a Rangers uniform.

He’s been trending towards a fourth/fifth outfielder type with decent zone swing and contact skills but below average chase rates and average power. Being passed around from second division team to second division team just reinforces that evaluation.

Michael Grove - Dodgers - Back-end SP that got rocked in his debut. Has a pair of breakers that keep him viable, but an average fastball caps his ceiling to that SP4/5 type of role, especially in a stacked Dodgers system. The Dodgers magic does make you pause and think maybe there’s more there, but there really isn’t at this point. It’s like the Kombucha girl meme come to life in the form of a pitching prospect.

Zack Thompson - Cardinals - After looking like a back-end starter type, the Cardinals transitioned Thompson to a relief role on his call-up. He bounced back and forth between the majors and Triple-A, maintaining that changed usage throughout. It was previously speculated that he could shift to a middle relief bullpen arm as his secondaries, outside of his plus curveball, left a lot to be desired. Now a fastball/curveball reliever, there is some realized baseball value. But there isn’t anything left hobby-wise.

Brian Serven - Rockies - The classic backup catcher profile that is a collection of 40 and 45 tools. He’s more of an offensive first backstop that gets a bit of added juice being in Colorado. There’s not much to add to it than that, although I’m sure Rockies owner Dick Monfort feels like Serven is a potential All-Star, along with the rest of the Rockies roster (I guess one of them has to be). Backup catchers are Tier None and Serven will need to show a lot more to drive any hobby interest.

Jermaine Palacios - Twins* - Utility player that was claimed off of waivers by the Tigers after the 2022 regular season ended. Originally an International Free Agent signing of the Twins in 2013, he was traded to the Rays for Jake Odorizzi in 2018. After reaching minor league free agency, he went back to the Twins. I’m going to assume Palacios will spend some time in Detroit and then head back to Minnesota because third time’s a charm?

Palacios has started to show some power the past two years in the minors, but it was likely more due to being older than his competition rather than true skills. He’s profiling as a fringe roster guy that has a bit of pop and can play anywhere on the field besides catcher.

Travis Swaggerty - Pirates - 80-grade last names unfortunately don’t carry enough weight in the hobby to overcome a lack of an impactful offensive profile.

Swaggerty is reliant upon a defense/speed to provide baseball value. His average hit and power tools are let down by hitting the ball into the ground too often. Currently he’s trending as more of a fourth outfielder and will need significant offensive growth and approach changes to capture an everyday role.

Josh Winckowski - Red Sox - In late January 2021, the Blue Jays traded a package of players including Winckowski to the Mets for Steven Matz. Then a few weeks later, Winckowski was part of the three team deal that landed him in Boston (along with Franchy Cordero) with Andrew Benintendi heading to Kansas City and the Mets getting Khalil Lee (oof). It’s easy with hindsight, but even then I think the majority of the baseball community were scratching their heads in disbelief when getting the details of this trade.

Winckowski throws various forms of a fastball - a four seamer, cutter, and sinker. He’ll throw a slider for his breaker and occasionally work in a changeup. None of the pitches are anything more than average and his approach is focused on generating weak contact.

At best Winckowski is a back-end starter, but he’s more of an org depth/swing-man/long reliever type long term. More than anything, I wonder if he considers himself a former Met.

Ethan Small - Brewers - A former first rounder that I remember seeing a ton of video of coming into the 2019 MLB Draft showing off his deception and varied timing on his delivery to mess with hitters. It was enough to get the Brewers to use their first round pick at 28th overall to take Small.

Small’s arsenal has narrowed down to two pitches, a low 90’s fastball and mid-to-high 70’s changeup. With the lack of a third pitch, it put a dent in his potential to be a starter long term. Add in that he’s not getting a lot of strikeouts and walking way too many batters, and it seems like Small is destined for the bullpen sooner rather than later. In his 6 and third MLB innings, he gave up 8 walks (not great, Bob). That was a very small sample, but in Double-A and Triple-A the past two years, he’s been posting walk rates between 13% - 14% while the MLB league average rate is around 7.5%. That’s a problem.

At this point, there should be very little, some might even say not even a Small amount of, interest in his rookie cards. He’s a Tier None future low leverage bullpen arm that needs some significant changes to regain some of that prospect shine from 2019.

Jonah Bride - Athletics - Quintessential utility player who added catching to the repertoire later in his prospect journey. Strong plate approach with a hit over power focus, but really doesn’t have a calling card tool. A grinder, the type of player any team loves to have on their roster, but doesn’t provide much value fantasy or hobby-wise. That will land him in Tier None.

Brandon Hughes - Cubs - Hughes ended up the Cubs closer by default by the end of last season. A fastball/slider reliever that has a look of a decent high leverage arm. He gives up a bit too many walks, but that is something you will typically find in reliever profiles.

I don’t see anything special, but he is on a collectable team and did end up getting saves on a bad team. There might end up being something, but for now he gets lumped in with the rest of the relievers in Tier None.

Buddy Kennedy - Diamondbacks - 2021 decided to swing for the fences, hit 17 homers and his k rate jumped to 26%. 2022 went back to his normal profile of low k rate, high walk rate, average power. Passed through waivers unclaimed in the off-season to get him off the 40 man roster. Utility player at second/third/left field that doesn’t look like there will be enough in the skill set to get him an everyday first division role.

Marcus Wilson - Mariners* - Three true outcomes hitter that looks to hit pull-side fly balls. Plus walk rates regularly in the mid teens with poor strikeout rates regularly north of 32%. Will also run a bit to get some chip-in steals. Elected free agency after the season and has yet to be signed to a roster or given a non-roster invite to Spring Training that I am aware of.

Emergency depth outfielder type that could find some playing time on a bad team, have a hot month like Aristedes Aquino, and then end up on roster fringes and eventually head to the NPB. Or even possibly be looking to head that way right now.

Davis Martin - White Sox - A fifth starter, org depth player at the moment. Martin’s got a four pick mix of a four seamer, slider, curveball, and changeup. His slider produces the best results with plus swing and miss while everything else is essentially average. In his final start of 2022, he was removed from his start as a precaution as he had some bicep stiffness, but he said it wasn't a big deal. Regardless of the comments, that type of stuff makes me very nervous. There’s a path here to more as he’s trended positively from where he began as a non-prospect, but for now he’s a Tier None player, and the minor red flag to end the season cements that ranking.

Evan Lee - Nationals - I’ve already written up Lee in my 2022 Bowman Chrome Product Preview. Nothing has really changed and he’s essentially a lefty reliever/back-end starter in Tier None.

Max Castillo - Royals - Acquired from the Blue Jays, along with Samad Taylor, at the trade deadline for Whit Merrifield. Castillo is a back-end SP, swing-man, multi-inning reliever type.

His arsenal is primarily three pitches - a low-90’s four seamer, a high-80’s changeup, and a mid-80’s slider. The changeup is his only potential plus pitch at the moment, generating an above average CSW, sub-.200 batting average, and limiting hard contact. Outside of that, there isn’t anything else to point to for putting Castillo into anything more than a Tier None ranking.

Mark Appel - Phillies - From a current talent perspective, Appel is a Tier None reliever. From a story perspective, Appel is potentially a Tier 1 player.

As a college junior, he was in consideration for the top overall pick in the 2012 draft but fell to the Pirates at the 8th overall pick due to signability concerns. The Astros, who had the first pick in that draft, ended up taking Carlos Correa. Fast forward to the 2013 draft and the Astros take Appel at number one overall. While he made it up to Triple-A by 2015, he could never get over the hump and was traded to the Phillies in the 2015 off-season. Another two years of mediocre performance in the high minors led to a DFA after the 2017 season and shortly thereafter Appel retired. Late in 2018, after a full season off, he decided he wanted to try a comeback, but first he needed to get shoulder surgery. By 2021, he was back to full health and the Phillies reinstated him from their reserve/retired list. He still was starting somewhat in 2021, but transitioned full time to a bullpen role in 2022 and his perseverance paid off with a call up for his debut with the Phillies MLB team.

Now that storytime is over, as I said earlier, a reliever used in low leverage situations is essentially a Tier None decision and that’s where I’ll have Appel. He’s a sinker/slider guy trying to induce weak contact with the sinker and strikes with the slider. It’s worth noting that there will be higher interest than normal in his cards given his baseball profile due to his comeback story and being willing to share that story and connect with people in similar situations.

David MacKinnon - Athletics - DFA’d and then waived by the Angels after the trade deadline, MacKinnon was claimed by the A’s, non-tendered by the A’s in the off-season, and signed with the NPB’s Seibu Lions. A player already out of the MLB at this point is always going to end up in Tier None.

Final Thoughts

Prior to the checklist being announced, the only rookie we were 100% sure of being in the product was Adley Rutschman. It was a good bet that Michael Harris II would also make it in, but I was skeptical that we would see players like Vinnie P., Gunnar Henderson, Miguel Vargas, Brett Baty, and others. When the checklist was announced, I was very surprised we got such strength and depth in the checklist. In addition, it looks like Topps is starting to figure out how to get chase inserts done correctly, at least in theory. We’ll see how that all plays out when a large amount of the product gets opened.

On the other hand, Topps is doing its best to suck all value out of the retail configurations with the print runs inferred from the odds. The parallels not being full border aesthetically just bother me, but I reserve the right to change my opinion once the cards are in hand. The 35th anniversary 1988 throwbacks are boring even if the silver packs chrome mojo versions probably look better (silver packs always look better).

Overall, I’ll repeat myself and say that the strength of the rookie checklist overcomes the negatives of this product and I am excited to get my hands on some.